Associated Press
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Either they’re geniuses … or about to look foolish.
An Associated Press panel of reporters who have
covered 28 World Cups among them peer into a
crystal ball and take a stab at predicting who will
shine or flop among the 32 teams next June in
Brazil.
The AP also got second opinions from Raymond
Domenech, who coached 1998 world champion
France at the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, and from
a global panel of 14 non-AP journalists who vote in
the weekly AP soccer poll. Their thoughts about our
predictions are also published.
Of course, the Dec. 6 draw could blow some
predictions off course. But if history proves our
fortune-tellers right, then don’t forget: you read it
here first!
If not, well, hmmm. Better luck next time?
___
WILL BRAZIL WIN? Yes. Brazil’s team, although
average by its standards, will transcend itself
thanks to the expertise of coach Luiz Felipe Scolari,
Neymar’s gift for scoring and creating goals and the
added zest of playing for home crowds. Scolari is
adept at getting teams and players to peak on
schedule, essential for the monthlong World Cup.
After winning the 2002 edition with Brazil and then
managing Portugal, Scolari returned to club
football. Brazil’s football federation brought him
back after firing much-criticized manager Mano
Menezes in 2012. Scolari proved he hasn’t lost his
touch by leading Brazil to victory at the 2013
Confederations Cup. Neymar was MVP of that
World Cup warm-up tournament, silencing critics’
claims that the 21-year-old striker doesn’t shine for
Brazil in big games. Usually intolerant of
imperfection, home fans threw themselves behind
the team and will do so again in 2014, helping to
carry Neymar and Co. to the final, which they’ll win.
By Tales Azzoni in Brazil.
PANEL SAYS: Evenly split, 7 of 14 panelists agree
Brazil will win. “Historically, Brazil has benefited
from refereeing decisions at WCs, a factor that
might be even bigger at home” _ Leonardo Bertozzi,
ESPN Brazil .
DOMENECH: Agrees. “The Confederations Cup
confirmed they’ll be tough to beat.”
___
OR WILL IT BE SPAIN? Yes. Spain will become the
first team to win four major championships in
succession. The World Cup winner in South Africa
and two-time defending European champion has the
necessaries to repeat: Quality, experience, youth
and master coach Vicente del Bosque. It will likely
be the last World Cup for midfielder Xavi
Hernandez, who could have less of an impact. But
Andres Iniesta, David Silva and Sergio Ramos are in
their prime. Del Bosque has top goalkeepers, with
Iker Casillas likely to start despite becoming second
choice at Real Madrid. Striker Diego Costa’s
decision to play for Spain, his naturalized country,
instead of his native Brazil could tip the balance. He
gives Spain presence and a scoring threat with both
feet. With the extra motivation of making history,
Spain will become the first team since Brazil in
1962 to defend the world title. By Paul Logothetis in
Spain.
PANEL: Overwhelming majority _ 12 of 14 _ say
Spain will lose. “Teams will play counter-attack
against them and when that happens they are
beatable” _ Mike McGrath, The Sun.
DOMENECH: Says Spain’s “players are getting a
bit old. It’s the end of a cycle. I even see them being
knocked out quite quickly.”
___
WHICH TEAM WILL BE THE BIGGEST FLOP?
Spain’s cycle of dominance will abruptly end in
Brazil. Signs were there in qualifying that La Roja
are no longer the menace they once were. Although
undefeated in 30 straight matches at home, points
were dropped to visiting France and, more
surprisingly, Finland. In both games, Spain needed
a goal from defender Sergio Ramos, highlighting
how Spain’s once free-flowing attack has grown
wheezy. In only one of eight qualifiers did a forward
score more than once _ Pedro’s hat-trick against
Belarus. Teams are figuring out how to frustrate
Spain, which needed late goals to beat Georgia
away and in a scrappy win in Finland. Playmaker
Xavi will be 34 and overworked trying to unpick
packed defenses. A good counter-attacking team
will send Spain home well before the final. By
Jerome Pugmire in France.
PANEL: Just 3 of 14 agree.
DOMENECH: Agrees with Jerome. “They should get
through their group but risk quick elimination in a
knockout game.”
___
WHO WILL WIN THE GOLDEN BOOT? Lionel Messi
is going to correct the major blemish on his hugely
prolific career scoring record and take home the
Golden Boot. Heading to his third World Cup, the
four-time world player of the year has scored _
you’ll have trouble believing this _ just once at the
World Cup: in his first match in 2006. Messi played
well but got no goals in 2010 for an Argentina team
coached quixotically by Diego Maradona. Under
coach Alejandro Sabella, Messi’s genius will finally
shine in Brazil. Even his time sidelined by early
season injuries will keep him fresher for national
duty in June when he should be reaching his career
peak at 27. Messi scored 10 times in 14 qualifying
matches. If the Dec. 6 draw groups Argentina with
the Netherlands and Ivory Coast, just like 2006, the
team will need Messi scoring. Just a single game
against weaker defenses could see sufficient Messi
goals for the Golden Boot, especially since he is also
Argentina’s designated penalty-taker. In 2010,
Germany’s Thomas Mueller high-scored with five
goals. By Graham Dunbar in Switzerland.
PANEL: Just under half _ 6 of 14 _ agree.
DOMENECH: Disagrees. “I think it will be a
Brazilian.”
___
WILL LIONEL MESSI SHINE? No. Messi won’t be
healthy enough. He’s running out of gas, picking up
injuries with alarming regularity, the latest a left-
leg muscle tear. He appears to be paying for his
keenness to play every match and for rough tackles
he’s endured over the years from opponents he
frustrates. Under ex-coach Pep Guardiola at
Barcelona, Messi enjoyed long spells without injury.
But Guardiola moved on and Messi broke down with
a hamstring problem at the end of last season. At
the World Cup, stars have little time to shine _ a
maximum of seven matches in one month if they
make the final. Messi needs to be fully fit and that
looks unlikely. By Stephen Wade in Brazil.
PANEL: Only 5 of 14 agree Messi will flop.
DOMENECH: Disagrees. “He has time to get better,
because he’s getting injured now and the World
Cup is in more than six months.”
___
WHICH AFRICAN TEAM WILL FARE BEST? Didier
Drogba will inspire Ivory Coast to the quarterfinals,
matching the best ever performance by an African
team. True, Drogba will be 36 and the Ivorians
didn’t escape the group stage at their two previous
World Cups. But in the Champions League, playing
for Turkish club Galatasaray, Drogba is proving he
can still score against top opposition. This being his
last World Cup and probably his last major
tournament will motivate the striker and the team
he captains. With a decent draw, and Yaya Toure in
midfield, Ivory Coast will go furthest of the 5 African
teams. By Gerald Imray in South Africa.
PANEL: 5 of 14 agree.
DOMENECH: No. “I think it will be Nigeria.”
___
GERMANY’S “GOLDEN GENERATION” FINALLY
WINS? No. Germany will start as always with a big
victory and breeze through the rest of the
tournament _ until the semifinals. There, Joachim
Loew’s men will again fall short despite playing
sparkling football, especially if the Dec. 6 draw
throws up Italy as a likely semifinal opponent.
Germany has never beaten Italy at a major
tournament. Other teams are beginning to read
Germany’s game and won’t give so much space to
midfielder Mesut Ozil. Germany will have one of the
youngest teams and will lack experience _ except in
attack, where Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez are
aging and aching. Germany’s defense is its biggest
weakness. Loew’s philosophy is to score more than
concede, but squandering a 4-0 lead against
Sweden for a 4-4 draw in World Cup qualifying
exposed Germany’s lack of a world-class defender,
except Philipp Lahm. By Nesha Starcevic in
Germany.
PANEL: Even split _ 7 of 14 agree. “It’s time for
them to win it all. Bayern and Dortmund discovered
the path in the last Champions League” _ Ubiratan
Leal, trivela.com, Brazil.
DOMENECH: “Completely agree. They’ve always
been short of that extra something and they’re not
going to do better as they get older. Semifinals, yes.
They’ll lose against Brazil.”
___
WHICH TEAMS WILL SPRING THE BIGGEST
SURPRISE? It used to be that surprise teams could
lay low until the World Cup. FIFA’s rankings
changed that. Belgium hasn’t played a World Cup
since 2002. It’s been even longer for Colombia:
1998. Both might be considered dark horses in
Brazil were it not for FIFA rankings giving their
game away. Based on their results against other
teams, they’re now among the top 5 football
nations. Despite lacking experience, they’ll advance
easily from group play. From there, a piece of
individual brilliance or luck often decides games. In
Radamel Falcao and James Rodriguez, Colombia
has a game-changing duo. Behind the playmaking of
Eden Hazard, Belgium is a challenger. One or both
will reach the semifinals. By Raf Casert in Belgium.
PANEL: Majority _ 10 of 14 _ agree. “Belgium will
have a magnificent team ready for the World Cup _
look out for Vertonghen, Hazard and Lukaku!” _
Soren-Mikael Hansen, Politiken, Denmark.
DOMENECH: No. Expects Argentina, Brazil and
Germany in the semifinals and “for the surprise, I’d
always say Italy, my intimate friends.” (Domenech’s
France team lost the 2006 World Cup final to Italy)
___
WILL ENGLAND REPEAT 1966? No. The nation
with the world’s No. 1 football league still won’t
have international success. Fans who long
struggled to accept the diminished status of the
1966 world champion now realize that Roy
Hodgson’s side won’t repeat that feat in Brazil or
get to the semifinals like Bobby Robson’s team in
1990. Even the English Football Association’s
chairman, Greg Dyke, only set England a target of
winning the World Cup … in 2022. The youthful
energy of Jack Wilshere and Andros Townsend will
unsettle teams. The matured Wayne Rooney will
score his first World Cup goal. But off-field
distractions and difficulty with relentless media
attention have a habit of derailing England at major
tournaments. England won’t go further than the last
16. By Rob Harris in England.
PANEL: 10 of 14 agree.
DOMENECH: Agrees. Not getting beyond the last
16 “is their habit.”
___
WILL THE UNITED STATES REACH THE
QUARTERS? No. That’s happened just once, in
2002. The U.S. team got no further than the group
stage in 1990, 1998 and 2006 and the last 16 in
1994 and 2010. Notwithstanding the improving
quality of Major League Soccer, players of fine
ability including midfielder Landon Donovan and
forward Clint Dempsey and the leadership of former
Germany coach Jurgen Klinsmann, the US team
won’t get beyond the last 16, or before that if the
draw is unfavorable. Despite qualifying top from
North and Central America and the Caribbean, the
U.S. isn’t seeded for Dec. 6. That means it is bound
to draw host Brazil or another top-ranked team and
possibly other difficult opponents, too. By columnist
John Leicester.
PANEL: Large majority _ 11 of 14 _ agree. “The U.S.
don’t have the talent or the stability/continuity to
get that far” _ Sam Tighe, Bleacher Report, United
States.
DOMENECH: Disagrees. Believes United States will
reach the quarterfinals. “I’ve always found them to
be well organized at the World Cup. Their matches
are generally tight. I would have liked them to beat
the Italians in 2006, that would have helped me
out.” (The two sides drew 1-1 in the group stage).

My own prediction is that Nigeria will wow! The whole world come Brazil 2014.