Monday: Inflation pressures are rising in Nigeria despite the central bank pegging the currency for almost a year in the face of plunging oil prices.

Governor Godwin Emefiele has opposed devaluing the naira, imposing restrictions on imports and curbing foreign-currency supply to cope with a more than 45 per cent slump in oil prices since the beginning of last year. Rather than protecting consumers -- the justification used by President Muhammadu Buhari in rejecting calls for a weaker currency -- the policy threatens to stoke inflation as it boosts import costs and pushes the naira to a record low on the black market.

The central bank's correlation between the naira and inflation "has already broken down," said Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an economist at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg. "Inflation will average in double digits this year," above the central bank's target of six per cent to nine per cent, she said.

Rising food costs, which make up about half of the consumer price index, have pushed inflation to 9.6 per cent in January, the same rate as the previous month and the highest level in three years. Calls to Central Bank of Nigeria Spokesman Ibrahim Mu'azu's mobile and office phones didn't connect and he didn't immediately respond to a text message seeking comment.

Ten of the 12 categories of consumer prices surveyed by Standard Chartered Plc in its Consumer Price Tracker showed increases in January from the previous month, according to Razia Khan, chief Africa economist at the London-based lender. That shows "prices are rising, despite attempts to keep the official Nigerian naira exchange rate unchanged," she said in an e-mailed note to clients.

The central bank in Africa's largest economy has effectively pegged the naira at 197-199 per US dollar since March by restricting foreign- currency supply, hurting businesses. That's forced them to seek currency on the parallel market, where the naira reached a low of 340 against the dollar on Monday.

"The average consumer is already facing a de facto devaluation, and this has driven up prices," Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix Partners LLP in London, said in an e-mailed responses to questions. While food prices have risen higher than the main rate, pressure in the last few months has come from core inflation, which excludes food costs, he said.

Economic growth, which is estimated to have slowed to three percent last year, the lowest since 1999, is set to remain subdued.

"Given the drag on economic growth from the foreign-exchange restrictions in place in order to keep the naira steady, there is a big economic cost to avoiding devaluation," said William Jackson, the London-based senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.(Bloomberg)

ceylontoday.lk/22-118542-news-detail-risks-thwarting-buharis-naira-defence.html

This men are just playing with nigeria economy looking for where to loot..

my brother

Since america feels the dont need naira because we have nothing to offer, why wil govment not focus on other countries. Like india rusia china etc

OKDnigeria:
Monday: Inflation pressures are rising in Nigeria
despite the central bank pegging the currency
for almost a year in the face of plunging oil
prices.


Governor Godwin Emefiele has opposed
devaluing the naira, imposing restrictions on
imports and curbing foreign-currency supply to
cope with a more than 45 per cent slump in oil
prices since the beginning of last year.
Rather than protecting consumers -- the
justification used by President Muhammadu
Buhari in rejecting calls for a weaker currency
-- the policy threatens to stoke inflation as it
boosts import costs and pushes the naira to a
record low on the black market.


The central bank's correlation between the naira
and inflation "has already broken down," said
Nema Ramkhelawan-Bhana, an economist at
Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg. "Inflation
will average in double digits this year," above
the central bank's target of six per cent to nine
per cent, she said.


Rising food costs, which make up about half of
the consumer price index, have pushed inflation
to 9.6 per cent in January, the same rate as the
previous month and the highest level in three
years. Calls to Central Bank of Nigeria
Spokesman Ibrahim Mu'azu's mobile and office
phones didn't connect and he didn't
immediately respond to a text message seeking
comment.


Ten of the 12 categories of consumer prices
surveyed by Standard Chartered Plc in its
Consumer Price Tracker showed increases in
January from the previous month, according to
Razia Khan, chief Africa economist at the
London-based lender. That shows "prices are
rising, despite attempts to keep the official
Nigerian naira exchange rate unchanged," she
said in an e-mailed note to clients.


The central bank in Africa's largest economy
has effectively pegged the naira at 197-199 per
US dollar since March by restricting foreign-
currency supply, hurting businesses. That's
forced them to seek currency on the parallel
market, where the naira reached a low of 340
against the dollar on Monday.


"The average consumer is already facing a de
facto devaluation, and this has driven up
prices," Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix
Partners LLP in London, said in an e-mailed
responses to questions. While food prices have
risen higher than the main rate, pressure in the
last few months has come from core inflation,
which excludes food costs, he said.


Economic growth, which is estimated to have
slowed to three percent last year, the lowest
since 1999, is set to remain subdued.


"Given the drag on economic growth from the
foreign-exchange restrictions in place in order
to keep the naira steady, there is a big
economic cost to avoiding devaluation," said
William Jackson, the London-based senior
emerging markets economist at Capital
Economics.(Bloomberg)


ceylontoday.lk/22-118542-news-detail-risks-thwarting-buharis-naira-defence.html

[b]....there are very many commentary on depreciation of ₦ nowadays expecially in parallel market, although parallel or black market can be manipulated by the traders, they either do it on their self interest, so those who doesn't beleive in the prosperity of nigeria can harbour $ as they can on imported goods hereby cause hike!
But in my own point of view the depreciation of ₦ is a great success to this nation if well manage to nigeria situation today. the looted fund is in $ and it must be refunded back in $, so if $1 is ₦198 when the money is looted, then if the money is refund today at $1 to ₦350 the nation has gained ₦152!
imagine if $1=₦1000, the gain is ₦902!
So in conclusion if the government managed to refund the $trillion looted and the refunded money, change it in parallel market, this will reduce the pressure on ₦ and the scarcity of $ in parallel market so the ₦=$.

(take note all the money took out of CBN during jonathan regime were changed in parallel market before ditributed)

you have other opinion?[/b]

Weblow:
Since america feels the dont need naira because we have nothing to offer, why wil govment not focus on other countries. Like india rusia china etc

This is a joke. What do we have to sell? Answer is crude.

Other countries have more of it than us and are currently bombarding the aforementioned countries with cheap crude which makes price low for everybody. Now factor. The reduce demand for oil due to the warm winter and also the slow down in China's economy. The only country buying a considerable amount of our oil is India.

You guys need to read other sections of the paper.

kayfra:


This is a joke. What do we have to sell? Answer is crude.

Other countries have more of it than us and are currently bombarding the aforementioned countries with cheap crude which makes price low for everybody. Now factor. The reduce demand for oil due to the warm winter and also the slow down in China's economy. The only country buying a considerable amount of our oil is India.

You guys need to read other sections of the paper.

[b]....there are very many commentary on depreciation of ₦ nowadays expecially in parallel market, although parallel or black market can be manipulated by the traders, they either do it on their self interest, so those who doesn't beleive in the prosperity of nigeria can harbour $ as they can on imported goods hereby cause hike!
But in my own point of view the depreciation of ₦ is a great success to this nation if well manage to nigeria situation today. the looted fund is in $ and it must be refunded back in $, so if $1 is ₦198 when the money is looted, then if the money is refund today at $1 to ₦350 the nation has gained ₦152!
imagine if $1=₦1000, the gain is ₦902!
So in conclusion if the government managed to refund the $trillion looted and the refunded money, change it in parallel market, this will reduce the pressure on ₦ and the scarcity of $ in parallel market so the ₦=$.

(take note all the money took out of CBN during jonathan regime were changed in parallel market before ditributed)

you have other opinion?[/b]

oyinkinola:


[b]....there are very many commentary on depreciation of ₦ nowadays expecially in parallel market, although parallel or black market can be manipulated by the traders, they either do it on their self interest, so those who doesn't beleive in the prosperity of nigeria can harbour $ as they can on imported goods hereby cause hike!
But in my own point of view the depreciation of ₦ is a great success to this nation if well manage to nigeria situation today. the looted fund is in $ and it must be refunded back in $, so if $1 is ₦198 when the money is looted, then if the money is refund today at $1 to ₦350 the nation has gained ₦152!
imagine if $1=₦1000, the gain is ₦902!
So in conclusion if the government managed to refund the $trillion looted and the refunded money, change it in parallel market, this will reduce the pressure on ₦ and the scarcity of $ in parallel market so the ₦=$.

(take note all the money took out of CBN during jonathan regime were changed in parallel market before ditributed)

you have other opinion?[/b]

When you put in perspective that Abacha died twenty years ago and we are yet to recover half of what he stole, you'll realize that loot recovery is not a reliable strategy to fix the economy.

kayfra:


When you put in perspective that Abacha died twenty years ago and we are yet to recover half of what he stole, you'll realize that loot recovery is not a reliable strategy to fix the economy.

....but you agree with my theory?

oyinkinola:


....but you agree with my theory?

In theory, I agree. We also have money we can make from court cases all over but those are not reliable.

Sentiment apart
#bringbackokonjo eweala

loveuGOD:
Sentiment apart
#bringbackokonjo eweala

To do what exactly? Increase the price of crude oil with magic? Lolz.

Like these guys just don't know or understand what is going on across the globe with crude exporting countries. Even mighty Canada, Saudi Arabia and Russia are crying talk less of looted Nigeria.

Siddon there dey wish upon the stars. LOLZ

loveuGOD:
Sentiment apart
#bringbackokonjo eweala

Thank you jare!
Managing a national economy is a specialist job not meant for people with questionable basic education.

kayfra:


To do what exactly? Increase the price of crude oil with magic? Lolz.

Like these guys just don't know or understand what is going on across the globe with crude exporting countries. Even mighty Canada, Saudi Arabia and Russia are crying talk less of looted Nigeria.

Siddon there dey wish upon the stars. LOLZ

Managing a national economy is a specialist profession just like surgery. If you have a tumor in your brain, you need the best surgeon for the job, but in Nigeria, people like you want their own person whether he is capable of removing the tumor or not. the result is a certain death or a run away exchange rate never seen in the last 100 years. When will you learn?

[s]

naijaking1:


Thank you jare!
Managing a national economy is a specialist job not meant for people with questionable basic education.

[/s]
...hoo! you people, where is okoo ewela when trillion is looted?

naijaking1:


Managing a national economy is a specialist profession just like surgery. If you have a tumor in your brain, you need the best surgeon for the job, but in Nigeria, people like you want their own person whether he is capable of removing the tumor or not. the result is a certain death or a run away exchange rate never seen in the last 100 years. When will you learn?

What do you think is wrong with the economy? Let's start from there.

oyinkinola:
[s][/s]
...hoo! you people, where is okoo ewela when trillion is looted?

Looted in your warped mind.
Go back all the way to Shehu Shagari era to see how badly defective the federal system of government inherited by GEJ has been run, not just the "looted trillions" in GEJ era. You will also see and appreciate how Okonjo-Iweala, no matter how you hate her compares at the top of our money managers since 1970.

naijaking1:


Looted in your warped mind.
Go back all the way to Shehu Shagari era to see how badly defective the federal system of government inherited by GEJ has been run, not just the "looted trillions" in GEJ era. You will also see and appreciate how Okonjo-Iweala, no matter how you hate her compares at the top of our money managers since 1970.

Is Okonjo a commodity we can export to help our lopsided balance of trade? You have to demonstrate some knowledge of economics rather than the worship of the cult of Okonjo.

kayfra:


What do you think is wrong with the economy? Let's start from there.

Even if you have no basic knowledge of economics as in having the WEAC, your common sense should still tell you to look for people with real knowledge to solve a particular problem.

Economic solutions don't come from retribution, political vengance, and religious idealism, they come from basic economic principles.

kayfra:


Is Okonjo a commodity we can export to help our lopsided balance of trade? You have to demonstrate some knowledge of economics rather than the worship of the cult of Okonjo.

Ah ha, now we're talking.
Buhari lacks basic western education on modern economic principles-acknowledging this problem is probably the first step. Then, he should listen to an expert(it doesn't have to be Ngozi), not over rule economic professionals with his messianic stance on a subject he is totally ignorant of.

naijaking1:


Even if you have no basic knowledge of economics as in having the WEAC, your common sense should still tell you to look for people with real knowledge to solve a particular problem.

Economic solutions don't come from retribution, political vengance, and religious idealism, they come from basic economic principles.

Dude. Our problem is very simple, we rely on earnings from a single commodity. When the price goes up, we pop champagne and when it goes down we drink Garri.

Okonjo over saw the highest crude windfall and she squandered the opportunity to diversify our economy. Yet, you want her back to do what? Someone that failed in the time of plenty will now do magic in strife?

Logic needed.

kayfra:


Dude. Our problem is very simple, we rely on earnings from a single commodity. When the price goes up, we pop champagne and when it goes down we drink Garri.

Okonjo over saw the highest crude windfall and she squandered the opportunity to diversify our economy. Yet, you want her back to do what? Someone that failed in the time of plenty will now do magic in strife?
Logic needed.

You are wrong to say Okonjo squandered an opportunity, she was never president of this country, and there are many articles detailing her warnings to both OBJ and GEJ to save for the rainy day. If you remove that hatred-colored eye glass, maybe you can see the truth.

naijaking1:


You are wrong to say Okonjo squandered an opportunity, she was never president of this country, and there are many articles detailing her warnings to both OBJ and GEJ to save for the rainy day. If you remove that hatred-colored eye glass, maybe you can see the truth.

She held the unheard of title of the coordinating minister of the economy. She was in charge.

I used to be enamored with okonjo but her second stint in Nigeria was simply a disaster. She did better when she chased after debt forgiveness under OBJ, but outside of that, she failed the country. Just the truth.


I've met her before sef and went to say hi. So I like her person. But she failed in protecting the country against the inevitable.

kayfra:


She held the unheard of title of the coordinating minister of the economy. She was in charge.

I used to be enamored with okonjo but her second stint in Nigeria was simply a disaster. She did better when she chased after debt forgiveness under OBJ, but outside of that, she failed the country. Just the truth.
I've met her before sef and went to say hi. So I like her person. But she failed in protecting the country against the inevitable.

To me, nothing personal.
I will appreciate her expertise whether she is Hausa, Yoruba, or even Ijaw. Unfortunately, a prophet(prophetess) is never known in her own country.

naijaking1:


To me, nothing personal.
I will appreciate her expertise whether she is Hausa, Yoruba, or even Ijaw. Unfortunately, a prophet(prophetess) is never known in her own country.

What we need are exports, not Okonjo.

[s]

naijaking1:


Ah ha, now we're talking.
Buhari lacks basic western education on modern economic principles-acknowledging this problem is probably the first step. Then, he should listen to an expert(it doesn't have to be Ngozi), not over rule economic professionals with his messianic stance on a subject he is totally ignorant of.

[/s]

...do you need phD to tackle this simple problem?
[b]....there are very many commentary on depreciation of ₦ nowadays expecially in parallel market, although parallel or black market can be manipulated by the traders, they either do it on their self interest, so those who doesn't beleive in the prosperity of nigeria can harbour $ as they can on imported goods hereby cause hike!
But in my own point of view the depreciation of ₦ is a great success to this nation if well manage to nigeria situation today. the looted fund is in $ and it must be refunded back in $, so if $1 is ₦198 when the money is looted, then if the money is refund today at $1 to ₦350 the nation has gained ₦152!
imagine if $1=₦1000, the gain is ₦902!
So in conclusion if the government managed to refund the $trillion looted and the refunded money, change it in parallel market, this will reduce the pressure on ₦ and the scarcity of $ in parallel market so the ₦=$.

(take note all the money took out of CBN during jonathan regime were changed in parallel market before ditributed)

you have other opinion?[/b]

kayfra:


What we need are exports, not Okonjo.

Once again this is where you show your own ignorance.
Exports, natural resources, etc can earn you foreign currency, but guess what, you still need an expert management skill or manpower to make full use of your earnings.
That's why many countries with so-called export, but no good management skills continue to lag behind those countries without tangible oil export. Can you compare Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venzuela, and other useless exporters of oil with countries without oil such as India, Germany, Brazil?
The difference is in the expert management of the small resources they have compared to the trillion dollar wasted export?
People with your mindset, limited knowledge of global economy think only about oil, too bad.

naijaking1:


Once again this is where you show your own ignorance.
Exports, natural resources, etc can earn you foreign currency, but guess what, you still need an expert management skill or manpower to make full use of your earnings.
That's why many countries with so-called export, but no good management skills continue to lag behind those countries without tangible oil export. Can you compare Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venzuela, and other useless exporters of oil with countries without oil such as India, Germany, Brazil?
The difference is in the expert management of the small resources they have compared to the trillion dollar wasted export?
People with your mindset, limited knowledge of global economy think only about oil, too bad.

Of course we need an expert manager. Okonjo just hasn't proved herself to be one. Aunty Kemi has been working like an accountant and tightening belts, but we need more than that.

We need someone like Kalu Idika Kalu as special adviser on economy to train Buhari on new ways to achieve his protectionist agenda. We need that man like yesterday!

Okonjo is in the pocket of world bank, and I have personal dibs on her. Not stuff for public forums.