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The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? - Business (2) - Nairaland

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Recession: EU Advises Nigeria To Devalue Naira. / EXCLUSIVE: CBN Will NOT Devalue Naira, Mulls Proposal For New Forex Window / Pls, What Does It Mean To Devalue Naira? (2) (3) (4)

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Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Lusola15: 2:07pm On Feb 20, 2016
Everyday I go to the port I see 40ft n 20ft containers leaving the port but when they are returned they are empty. No one is exporting anything

I think d government must make sure if u are bringing a container into the country u must export something at all cost

2 Likes

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by onatisi(m): 2:09pm On Feb 20, 2016
johntaiwo123:
Something should be done ASAP to this Naira droping
Too late to do anything about it now.maybe if the current govt had taken proactive steps around July or August last year things might have been different now. Even right now it is too late to devalue the currency because the difference between the black market and bank rate is too too wide. The best now is to leave the market as it is and allow it to cool by itself .this may take time and to be honest very very painful and hard on Nigerians but after sometime of which can't be predicted the demand for dollars will come down.

1 Like

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Nobody: 2:09pm On Feb 20, 2016
johntaiwo123:
Something should be done ASAP to this Naira droping

a problem that has been in the making for decades (single source of forex and a consumer economy dependent on imports) cannot be fixed overnight.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by ohenhen1: 2:09pm On Feb 20, 2016
Don't devalue the Naira.

1 Like

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Nobody: 2:11pm On Feb 20, 2016
ohenhen1:
Don't devalue the Naira.


The Naira is already devalued all we are doing is giving a subsidy (allowing them to buy at a so called official rate) to areas of the economy we consider priority
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by ceejay80s(m): 2:12pm On Feb 20, 2016
Bag of pure water is now 120 naira Indomie noodles hungry man size is now 120 naira We are in trouble

1 Like

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by kennyman2000(m): 2:12pm On Feb 20, 2016
Hmmmmm.... Am sure, emefiele himself is confused. Except if he's also making gain from the policy.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Nobody: 2:17pm On Feb 20, 2016
LRNZH:


Lol! You have been scammed a long time ago.


Lol as far back as 10+6 years ago
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Ijaya123: 2:19pm On Feb 20, 2016
Firefire:
Buhary should please resign, correction of Nigeria economic woe is beyond him. angry

When will you call for the resignation of the CBN governor?

1 Like

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Ijaya123: 2:21pm On Feb 20, 2016
onatisi:

Too late to do anything about it now.maybe if the current govt had taken proactive steps around July or August last year things might have been different now. Even right now it is too late to devalue the currency because the difference between the black market and bank rate is too too wide. The best now is to leave the market as it is and allow it to cool by itself .this may take time and to be honest very very painful and hard on Nigerians but after sometime of which can't be predicted the demand for dollars will come down.

Proactive steps like what and what, if I may ask?
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Saifullah01: 2:21pm On Feb 20, 2016
I think you r right. That's why I stated this on another thread:

I read rider on this forum that MAN (manufacturers association of Nigeria) saying many companies would close shop due to the FX policy of government. For me this is a misplaced statement from man.

As unauthodox as it may seem this is a time for Nigeria to boost its local industries. This is like a protectionist regime imposed by the government for local manufacturing to take advantage of by governments refusial to devalue.

I was in kaduna yesterday and met with one of sokoto state government officials, he told me he was coming back from inoson motors HQ to discuss the possibility of supplying 800 sedans to the state government (and am very sure other states are looking towards that direction too).
My fear is does inoson motors have the capacity to service this sudden interest in their motors. So rather than MAN complain on government FX policies they should encourage their members to seize the opportunity. I expect inoson motors to drag CBN top officials to their plant - just like dangote did to his refinery - and secure commitment from the CBN to prioritise them if they choose to request FX for expansion of operations.

I read an article once in the Harvard business review about international businesses in China, the author was complaining about how it takes more than 6 months to obtain a 1 year business permit in China! (You think that was just because of bureaucracy? ). That was their government delibrately protecting local companies from foreign competitors. Little wonder Chinese companies are number 1 in all sector of their economy.

And those that feel devaluation provides some sort of silver bullet, if we devalue then what?

Devaluation is meant to reduce the pressure on governments scarce dollar reserves by freeing it up for "other purposes". But by banning non essential items (call controlled devaluation) government has effectively freed up FX for essential purpose or "other purposes" like importation of raw materials and spare parts for local manufacturing. So let's not get it twisted, devaluation of the naira won't bring the price of the perfume (Montale - black auod) I coughed out 39k naira to buy online down to 19k naira.

5 Likes

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by undisputedk: 2:22pm On Feb 20, 2016
Good day. As we continue to flog this pertinent economic issue, lately I've found myself devour so many materials yet understand so little. Unless one does not handle money then economics may not be that important. Well who doesn't anyway.
That said, may I use the opportunity of this interesting thread to find answers to some questions bothering on the fx crisis.

Firstly, How do Bureau the Change operators make their money?
I know that a dollar exchange for about 200 at the banks (they say it's the official price), but these operators change at a higher price compared to that. How is it done? I hear those monies are repatriated to the CBN. What and how does it affect the economy.

I have other questions but I kindly seek answer to this first. I don't intend to derail the thread, I'm just a confused soul. Thanks.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by sarutobie(m): 2:22pm On Feb 20, 2016
payosehtor:
thank God we stiil some nigerians who chooses objectivity in reasoning rather than weilling like ipob, A norviss (economics) is expected to listen to those who can atleast attempt the answer & complement them or keep quiet. thanks to the op.
"Weilling" Indeed...did I read "norviss"?... A classic example of pointing a finger at others while four of your own fingers points back at you..
With this I can bet even you did not understand what the Op was saying.. Funny Nigerians.

2 Likes

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by LRNZH(m): 2:24pm On Feb 20, 2016
Toeyoursea:
Thank you OP for not making your write up a Buhari or Jonathan affair, it is really down to earth. God bless your knowledge and help this nation move forwards.

This is beyond Jonathan or Buhari because these problems may persist if we don't do the right stuff and get lucky as well.

Na all of us go suffer am.

3 Likes

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Rajjah(f): 2:25pm On Feb 20, 2016
This exactly was the topic Ahmadu Bello University Zaria and Kaduna State University just debated on, here in A. B. U...
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Firefire(m): 2:26pm On Feb 20, 2016
Ijaya123:


When will you call for the resignation of the CBN governor?


Buhary's call, not mine.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by ApcSucks: 2:27pm On Feb 20, 2016
praxisnetworks:
If you're not a trained economist then shetop.

I hate being scammed.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Ijaya123: 2:28pm On Feb 20, 2016
Firefire:



Buhary's call, not mine.

So stop calling for Buhari's resignation. It is not your call either.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Toeyoursea(m): 2:30pm On Feb 20, 2016
LRNZH:


This is beyond Jonathan or Buhari because these problems may persist if we don't do the right stuff and get lucky as well.

Na all of us go suffer am.

Sir, I want to write an opinion piece on a similar subject for naij.com, I hope you don't mind if i reference your post? I can spot some relevant data there already.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by LRNZH(m): 2:31pm On Feb 20, 2016
undisputedk:
Good day. As we continue to flog this pertinent economic issue, lately I've found myself devour so many materials yet understand so little. Unless one does not handle money then economics may not be that important. Well who doesn't anyway.
That said, may I use the opportunity of this interesting thread to find answers to some questions bothering on the fx crisis.

Firstly, How do Bureau the Change operators make their money?
I know that a dollar exchange for about 200 at the banks (they say it's the official price), but these operators change at a higher price compared to that. How is it done? I hear those monies are repatriated to the CBN. What and how does it affect the economy.

I have other questions but I kindly seek answer to this first. I don't intend to derail the thread, I'm just a confused soul. Thanks.

It is a long story but I will stick to the short of it.
BDC's really started under Babangida. They are given licenses when they meet CBN's steep criteria (some huge amount of deposit), to buy Forex officially and sell at the black (what we call parallel market).

Right now, they are making a killing but truth be told, the real BDC licensees are far and few in between. Most of the 'mallams' you see on the streets are like 7 or 8 down in the chain of sellers from the BDC. So it is not easy to become a licensed BDC operator and make all this gain for yourself.

The whole system is riddled with corruption- allegations of CBN top people being the brains behind licensed BDCs abound. This part of the reason why we have to end the dichotomy of official and black market at some point .

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Firefire(m): 2:31pm On Feb 20, 2016
Ijaya123:


So stop calling for Buhari's resignation. It is not your call either.


You missed it.

Buhary as the head of government is responsible for the economy and not any other idiot in his cabinet.


Buhary should resign honorably or be booted out with force.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by piagetskinner(m): 2:32pm On Feb 20, 2016
I'm tired of reading articles that are indecisive of whether to devalue the naira or not... Something positive should start working abeg... ABEG!

1 Like 1 Share

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by LRNZH(m): 2:33pm On Feb 20, 2016
Toeyoursea:


Sir, I want to write an opinion piece on a similar subject for naij.com, I hope you don't mind if i reference your post? I can spot some relevant data there already.

I have no problem with this but kindly state your source of information and give credit to authors for intellectual property.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by LRNZH(m): 2:34pm On Feb 20, 2016
Rajjah:
This exactly was the topic Ahmadu Bello University Zaria and Kaduna State University just debated on, here in A. B. U...

Oh really? Any insights you want to share with us? I am interested. By the way, ABU is an alma mater.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Ijaya123: 2:36pm On Feb 20, 2016
Firefire:



You missed it.

Buhary as the head of government is responsible for the economy and not any other idiot in his cabinet.


Buhary should resign honorably or be booted out with force.


Please go ahead with the latter option.
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Nobody: 2:43pm On Feb 20, 2016
lookandlaff:


The Naira is already devalued all we are doing is giving a subsidy (allowing them to buy at a so called official rate) to areas of the economy we consider priority
U want to imagine what pump price will be if fuel is being imported @ 360 instead of the 197? Or what flight ticket will cost if Naira was not officially pegged. I don't think anybody have a ready made answer to the exchange issue...

2 Likes

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by DickDastardly(m): 2:44pm On Feb 20, 2016
Buhari will read the OP with grin and mumble some gibberish, then curse under his breath while scratching his head. He will be like
"Kai this ekwonomik froplem don taya me. Why i gwo snatch this kain wahala prom Jona put por bodi at zis my old age" cheesy

1 Like

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by ourchoice(m): 2:46pm On Feb 20, 2016
Please all Nairalanders MUST READ THIS THREAD, DON'T IGNORE: https://www.nairaland.com/2946071/wickedness-nigerian-youths-stadelk7-sell
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by LRNZH(m): 2:55pm On Feb 20, 2016
Saifullah01:
I think you r right. That's why I stated this on another thread:

I read rider on this forum that MAN (manufacturers association of Nigeria) saying many companies would close shop due to the FX policy of government. For me this is a misplaced statement from man.

As unauthodox as it may seem this is a time for Nigeria to boost its local industries. This is like a protectionist regime imposed by the government for local manufacturing to take advantage of by governments refusial to devalue.

I was in kaduna yesterday and met with one of sokoto state government officials, he told me he was coming back from inoson motors HQ to discuss the possibility of supplying 800 sedans to the state government (and am very sure other states are looking towards that direction too).
My fear is does inoson motors have the capacity to service this sudden interest in their motors. So rather than MAN complain on government FX policies they should encourage their members to seize the opportunity. I expect inoson motors to drag CBN top officials to their plant - just like dangote did to his refinery - and secure commitment from the CBN to prioritise them if they choose to request FX for expansion of operations.

I read an article once in the Harvard business review about international businesses in China, the author was complaining about how it takes more than 6 months to obtain a 1 year business permit in China! (You think that was just because of bureaucracy? ). That was their government delibrately protecting local companies from foreign competitors. Little wonder Chinese companies are number 1 in all sector of their economy.

And those that feel devaluation provides some sort of silver bullet, if we devalue then what?

Devaluation is meant to reduce the pressure on governments scarce dollar reserves by freeing it up for "other purposes". But by banning non essential items (call controlled devaluation) government has effectively freed up FX for essential purpose or "other purposes" like importation of raw materials and spare parts for local manufacturing. So let's not get it twisted, devaluation of the naira won't bring the price of the perfume (Montale - black auod) I coughed out 39k naira to buy online down to 19k naira.

Thumbs up. You are in the know.

1 Like

Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by LRNZH(m): 2:56pm On Feb 20, 2016
DickDastardly:
Buhari will read the OP with grin and mumble some gibberish, then curse under his breath while scratching his head. He will be like
"Kai this ekwonomik froplem don taya me. Why i gwo snatch this kain wahala prom Jona put por bodi at zis my old age" cheesy

Clown! Are you stylishly describing your reactions upon reading this? grin
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by undisputedk: 2:56pm On Feb 20, 2016
LRNZH:


It is a long story but I will stick to the short of it.
BDC's really started under Babangida. They are given licenses when they meet CBN's steep criteria (some huge amount of deposit), to buy Forex officially and sell at the black (what we call parallel market).

Right now, they are making a killing but truth be told, the real BDC licensees are far and few in between. Most of the 'mallams' you see on the streets are like 7 or 8 down in the chain of sellers from the BDC. So it is not easy to become a licensed BDC operator and make all this gain for yourself.

The whole system is riddled with corruption- allegations of CBN top people being the brains behind licensed BDCs abound. This part of the reason why we have to end the dichotomy of official and black market at some point .


I have read elsewhere where some persons have proposed that the disparity between the two prices maybe shortened by devaluation, while some have argued that unless the naira is 'floated', we'd continue to have the differences. Whatever that means anyways. Please can you shed some light on the adverse effects of having the two markets and how does 'floating'(another vocabulary I see being around around lately) seek to help the naira.


Yet again sir, I'm yet to get the answers to my first question.
When a BDC operator gives me about 400 naira for a dollar, how does he make a profit?
I'm deeply sorry for being an economic pain in your arse. I just need to understand that basic phenomenon. :-(
Re: The Naira In 2016: To Devalue Or Not To Devalue? by Reference(m): 3:05pm On Feb 20, 2016
989900:


-- Henry Boyo.

I have 3 other topics on devaluation; you can read them.
Devaluation, is a cosmetic solution, or symptomatic solution if you will, to an underlying cause -- especially in our case -- where are our exports?!

It's like taking paracetamol for stage 4 cancer, and hoping that cures! We have an endemic problem here y'all!

Devaluation will flog you to a solution. Propping up the naira will only maintain the status quo, slavery to big oil. Make your choice oh ye irresponsible, ease seeking, ostrich hiding, can kicking, lazy ar.se.d citizens. Na una sabi. I am exporting and my clients are loving it.

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