not sure this has been noted in recent discussions on UBA but thought i'd post it any way as i'm sure someone outhtere owns their shares

merry xmas and hope u can afford to use the dividend to travel the world like big bros Wanajo

http://africancapitalmarkets.com/news.php?id=305

RoughCut:

I think the guy correct? is calculating  his P/E and EPS ratios for Zenith, ACCESS and Intercontinental bans so i think he would his make his entrance when he is satisfied that he has a good deal on his hands since you have decided to carry your analysis sheet into the labour room  

All the best man and don't forget to welcome him with shareholding in those banks i mentioned. I expect my son to be a stock market billionaire by the time he's 18 he's already shareholder in those banks and i can definitely say that Zenith and   Intercôntinental would still be going strong by the time he's of age

Good luck pal and keep us informed!

As per C+I Leasing i did a post a while just before the PO with a BUY recommendation so the position is still valid that the stock will do well is not in question  the more pressing issue is can you get to buy on the floor? this is easily a N10-12 stock in the next 3 months.Quite a large chunk of their profits came from theeir overseas opeartions in the business they acquired in  Ghana and i think they are also going into lease financing so all counts its a WINNER and add Japaul Oil to the list

What has changed about japaul?it wasnt a favorite b4.do u see them beating their forecast cos of their international reach?Didint EVEN ATTEMPT TO BUY PO.
On GTBank,the PE i have is above 21.any chance they might surpass their projected PAT?Anybody knows which quarter thay make a chunk of their money?

D-DOTS:

@all,

Can anyone advise of a charting software that can be used for NSE stocks. This has been asked a couple of times but it always seems to get lost in the current gist. I'm sure there are a couple of Technical analysts out there who can help. As stated before, with the sound fundamental analysis that one gets on this site, mixing it up with some technical analysis would be lethal.

@windywnedy, which charting software do you use because I noticed you were talking about the price of one stock just under its 50 day moving average.

My guy, the answer still seems to be no. I decided to build my own (after all, they are nothing but glorified designer spreadsheets) but oga Wanaj0 unleashed a killer amount of data and I've been too buy drooling to start work on the technical aspect of my spreadsheet. It looks like we (nairalanders) have no choice but to build ours since no broker/analyst/website/programmer has released a useful working version. I'll prob have mine done in a week.

Wendy was quoting a proshare article. It was also CSMAs. Not much required to calculate those.

damoche07:

What has changed about japaul?it wasnt a favorite before.do u see them beating their forecast because of their international reach?Didint EVEN ATTEMPT TO BUY PO.
On GTBank,the PE i have is above 21.any chance they might surpass their projected PAT?Anybody knows which quarter thay make a chunk of their money?

Who said? It has ne^ver been out of favour. Go and have a look at their latest 9-month results and you will find they are on course to meet expectations. Not sure where you got the info that it wasnt a favourite i didnt buy into the PO because i don't do PO's these days(except it happens to be an offer i cannot refuse) hopefully i can dig out my post on this company its a while back though let me see if i can rustle up something

damoche07:

On GTBank,the PE i have is above 21.any chance they might surpass their projected PAT?Anybody knows which quarter thay make a chunk of their money?

GTB made 45% and 43% of their PAT in the 4th Q for the last 2 fiscal years. Not much chance they beat 20B. As Fatherof2 said, no point buying till Feb.

D-DOTS:

@all,

Can anyone advise of a charting software that can be used for NSE stocks. This has been asked a couple of times but it always seems to get lost in the current gist. I'm sure there are a couple of Technical analysts out there who can help. As stated before, with the sound fundamental analysis that one gets on this site, mixing it up with some technical analysis would be lethal.

@windywnedy, which charting software do you use because I noticed you were talking about the price of one stock just under its 50 day moving average.

If you're online,go to excel do an online search in excel for "stock analysis".Microsoft will bring up a list of tools for stock analysis.One of which is Moving average.It smoothens out the fluctuations in stock prices overtime and helps you with some prediction.If you have the original Office professional cd,you could install the analysis tool pack ADD-IN and choose the one that applies to stock analysis.You'll get something on moving average.But you need to be a financial expert to use that stuff.Hope that could help you.

Oya
@ Computer Geniuses all over the world

I get problem since last nite.The screen of my PC just shrunk by about 35% all of a sudden,
i don adjust resolution tire and nothing.I can't even uninstall the display driver.E no gree.
Abeg i need help.All una writing look tiny for my eye now.

Hello Father of 2
, you may have had your pc configured to update itself automatically. If that is the case, it may have picked up an updated driver and which may not work correctly with your monitor. If you can, remove the video card and install on a different pci slot. That way, the pc sees it as anew device and you may be able to reinstall d new driver. If that does not work and depending on your OS (operating system), when it is booting and wants to start windows, click on F8 to resume from last known good.
hope that helps,
Father of 3 boys!

father of 2 , i guess u have a viral infection, can u boot into safe mode, and try uninstalling d vga driver, first reboot and as u are starting up again press f8 and it should take u to a screen to choose safe mode, then go ahead from there,

rushnovski:

Hello Father of 2
, you may have had your pc configured to update itself automatically. If that is the case, it may have picked up an updated driver and which may not work correctly with your monitor. If you can, remove the video card and install on a different pci slot. That way, the pc sees it as anew device and you may be able to reinstall d new driver. If that does not work and depending on your OS (operating system), when it is booting and wants to start windows, click on F8 to resume from last known good.
hope that helps,
Father of 3 boys!

Thanks so much.I'll try out the F8 thing this evening.My system is a laptop so i won't be able to have access to the video card. I believe "last known good configuration "should work.
On the otherhand, so you use one boy take pass me.I must start work on number 3 immediately.
I'll update you tomorrow.(i.e. on the pc issue oh)

FatherOF2:

On the otherhand, so you use one boy take pass me.I must start work on number 3 immediately.
I'll update you tomorrow.(i.e. on the pc issue oh)

Does Motherof2 have a say in this matter?

nkc:

father of 2 , i guess u have a viral infection, can u boot into safe mode, and try uninstalling d vga driver, first reboot and as u are starting up again press f8 and it should take u to a screen to choose safe mode, then go ahead from there,

Aha that is another strong point oh.I actually copied some old work files last nite from my old infected laptop into a flashdrive and try to view the files in my new pc about 30mins later.I thot since i had Norton on it,i had automatic safety.Its possible the virus sneaked in from the Flashdrive because the problem started after i switched off and switched on this morning. F8 will definately work this evening. Thanks another million. Guru nkc and Guru Russia(Rushnovski).

easimoni:

Does Motherof2 have a say in this matter?

Ah na democracy we dey oh.You must vote first.

@roughcut et damacheo

japaul is an excellent buy as far as i can see fellas and i agre with roughcut, they are more than likely to meet their expectations in terms of profit again this year and have consistently increased profit

i bought the P.O based on my analysis at the time and that hasn't changed.

C&I leasing is another unsong hero in the market and i am aiming for it by april '08.
i suspect the reason they aren't so "popular" is because they do not make much noise (and who can hear themselves over all the noise these banking institutions are currently making anyway), plus they are in a sector that is not as well known but growing rapidly (as usual, they will only become well known when they are already too far gone for more than average ROI are to be made)
getting in early for japaul, cutix and C&I Leasing is a wise decision on anyone's part if you go by their history (of course historical activity doesn't equate to future earnings but a track record is worth all the forward P.Es in the world should the business and fundamentals remain the same and for these 3 companies, it does)

@fatherof2.
Hopefuly it works. But keep in mind that Norton though one of the best AV software out there is not the best defender. Besides, if you do not have the current engine or the .DAT files, you are on your own. However, AVG will do a better work for you. It is free, reliable and it protectes against viruses that Norton regards as not harmful and therefore does not have anything to protect agains it. (www.avg.com). Please get the free full version
I no b russian oooo. na d name wey my pple give me wen we dey Ekpoma, Great Bensuites!

lol,
father of 2, u r controversial guru by some and a guru by others
as a geek, i have joined d two and found out for myself that u r indeed a stock guru, so keep up d good work and tell that virus to leave u alone, abeg mother of 2, shld be considered, as easimoni said

@rushnovski
NICE TO MEET U.

i can only begin to imagine why your peeps would give an ekpoma boy a russian name like rushnovski, i can only wonder
rushnovski can only mean u to dey rush bros      

how's the weather in God's holiday home? (Nigeria is God's own country and he only spends vacations in the U.S    )

no_shaking:

Not quite so! The burden to be relieved _post-IPO would just be marginal! Remember total interest expenses (pre-IPO) only account for about 10% of its turnover and with the company's intent of using 90% of its PO to clear its existing debt, earnings growth would not be substantial  _{re.opportunity cost}, and besides strategically, nothing much is changing overtime - its strategic intents, business model; Flour Mill still major customer etc.

At best, Bagco is just a CAUTIOUS BUY not based on fundamentals, but on sentiments surrounding company's first public listing on the floor and the subsequent price rally etc. Hey, my opinion though!

You mis-understand my point. The balance sheet post IPO will be substantially debt free. Current total Long term debt is about N4.8 billion and with 90% of the PO used to clear debt, this is more than enough to get rid of the LT debt and also reduce the over-reliance of overdraft. I'm not sure why you're comparing interest expense to turnover. But let me give you another perspective on this. Interest expense for FY06 was N865million. With the interest bearing debt gone, and the dependence on overdraft reduced, this will free up at least N865m to income. This amounts to like 13kobo per share (using 6.215b shares). For a N3.9 stock, that is substantial. Also, the company has already invested heavily in production upgrade and expansion and also done some re-organization -- check out the cash flow statements and you'll see the progressive investment over the last 3 or so years. I'm guessing that's how they came about all of this debt in the first place. So the fact that they're not using the IPO to invest in expansion does not mean there isn't room for expansion. The investment has been done already, and the company is already beginning to reap the benefits -- take a good look at the operating results and profit ratios from 2006 and compare those to the prior years and you'll see what I'm talking about. _{The investment and reorganization started in 2005 I think.} I personally think the expansion is going to come largely from the flex packaging and from the fact that they'll have more working capital to do business. This is a good deal in my opinion.

Also, I don't understand what you mean by "not much is changing strategically". Did you read the prospectus? A lot has changed strategically, all the way up to the corporate governance structure. Pls expansiate further on what you mean, perhaps I've overlooked something.

With regard to flour mills being the major customer, well, I'ld say this is true. But take a look at the note on related party transactions, and you'll see that flour mills does not contribute up to 50% of the company's turnover. 2006 was about 41% and that's the highest so far. This admittedly is a risk, but not as risky as the alternative bag company (in my opinion).

But take a look again at the prospectus and let's discuss further.

@WINDYWENDY
plus the fact that their main competitor NAMPAK is not doing at all greaat as far as i can see from their results

my worry is that if NAMPAK can't get business to generate profit, can bagco?

presumably there is a market out there but if probably the largest company in that sector can only report a 70% loss in profit i just wonder if their market isn't shrinking or at best not properly identified (less likely option)

what say u?

@ Pumping
When you refer to "cheaper deals in the market or about to come out", would you kindly point out a couple ( Cheaper than Bagco) so that I pounce on them? I know you dont mean Zenith, Fidelity and Afribank. Phb is definitely a buy but Bagco ranks among the better offers for sure. Like Wanajo said about Aiico, they merged with (or bought) another coy so we dont even know what the true outstanding shares are yet. Costain should be good too, lets wait and see.

@ Aktopgun,
May I commment briefly?
Flexible packaging is not the mainstay of Bagco's profit. They have a healthy looking balance sheet EVEN without the Morpack arm being operational and I have faith in their management to do what Nampak cannot, plus you have to look at Nampak's cost of operation. For example, are they using Diesel instead of gas ( which Bagco just switched to)? etc, little things like that can make a difference. Plus Bagco is the sole supplier to Burham cement and the new United Cement Coy on the way ( someone say Profit!!) AND then add the Eleme Petrochemicals deal and I see Bagco overshadowing Nampak effortlessly.

aktopgun:

@WINDYWENDY
plus the fact that their main competitor NAMPAK is not doing at all greaat as far as i can see from their results

my worry is that if NAMPAK can't get business to generate profit, can bagco?

presumably there is a market out there but if probably the largest company in that sector can only report a 70% loss in profit i just wonder if their market isn't shrinking or at best not properly identified (less likely option)

what say u?

Nampak and Bagco are not directly comparable. The only aspect of Nampak's business that's comparable directly to Bagco's is the flex packaging (Morpack) which is billed to come onstream in 2008. That segment of Nampak is doing well. Now, I'm not a Nampak shareholder, but I did look at their FY06 financials while doing the ground work on Bagco. There's a lot of reasons those guys are not doing well, but their flex packaging division is doing well. Take a look at the financials yourself on their website. You could also look at investors' presentations on the website too. Also, if you look at Nampak's financials, you'ld see that flex packaging is not a significant part of the business.

@jehoshaphat

thanks for the info man. made things clearer definitely

i do think though that if you can afford it buy the goose instead of the egg ie flourmills instead of bagco.
bagco contributes to flourmills' bottom line cuz they own 70% of bagco and therefore 70% of whatever profit bagco make until that situation changes.

i know flourmills may be a bit steep in terms of price but if one can i would think this would be a better option, not to say bagco in itself isn't a good buy

@windywendy

thats exactly what i mean ma'am.
NAMPAK are their main competitors in the packaging industry and will have the muscle of their larger company to push Bagco all the way. NAMPAK are doing well in that area already and will look to consolidate of course as thats one of the few areas they've managed to do well in, but as brother jehoshaphat pointed out, bagco have other ways of reducing operational costs and have a ready made client in flourmills.

ABC transport is making some strategic moves. An IPO might be in the offing,
http://nationaldailyngr.com/biz4.htm

Or did they have one already, ??

Good coy to get into regardless,

aktopgun:

@windywendy

thats exactly what i mean ma'am.
NAMPAK are their main competitors in the packaging industry and will have the muscle of their larger company to push Bagco all the way. NAMPAK are doing well in that area already and will look to consolidate of course as thats one of the few areas they've managed to do well in, but as brother jehoshaphat pointed out, bagco have other ways of reducing operational costs and have a ready made client in flourmills.

Well, you're absolutely right, and infact that was one of my main reservations. I don't see Nampak sitting down and folding their arms while Bagco is trying to invade their space in the flex packaging market. But Bagco already has a market (at least flour mills will be using a lot of those flex packages), and so at least has a fighting chance. This is one area I think they can leverage the muscle of the parent. But let's see how it plays out eventually.

As an aside, how's it going with the new baby ?

@jehoshaphat et al

why do u think ABC are good to get into regardless? any info to share bruvs?


i notice they did not specify what they expect this new division to add to their bottom line in terms of figures

is Obajana operational yet?

@windywendy

as i said to roughcut and the guys earlier, the boy is still doing african time with us o my sister, he must think it's too cold to come out or something. well he better hurry up cuz it's only gonna get colder anyway

thanx for asking though, my fellow nairalanders will be the third group to know after me, my wife and our family, trust me

easimoni:

My guy, the answer still seems to be no. I decided to build my own (after all, they are nothing but glorified designer spreadsheets) but oga Wanaj0 unleashed a killer amount of data and I've been too buy drooling to start work on the technical aspect of my spreadsheet. It looks like we (nairalanders) have no choice but to build ours since no broker/analyst/website/programmer has released a useful working version. I'll prob have mine done in a week.

Wendy was quoting a proshare article. It was also CSMAs. Not much required to calculate those.

Which proshare article was that? I wasn't quoting any proshare article.

I use excel to do moving averages, and I do that for stocks that trigger my interest

damoche07:

What has changed about japaul?it wasnt a favorite before.do u see them beating their forecast because of their international reach?Didint EVEN ATTEMPT TO BUY PO.
On GTBank,the PE i have is above 21.any chance they might surpass their projected PAT?Anybody knows which quarter thay make a chunk of their money?

Japaul oil made PAT N317M for Q3 and N134M or 70% of that figure came from Q3 alone and they have projected PAT for full-year in the region of  N444M in the offer prospectus so you can reasonably assume they are on their way to beat that forecast.

Going by the results you would have a forward PE of 22(if you had bought befôre TS was lifted you would have bought a at a forward PE of 10.36 which is not too far from the projections in the prospectus and more importantly how cheaper can you get?) and the forward EPS  is 36.1K which is excellent for a ~N6 stock. The projection is based on 1.166B outstanding shares as at now and obviously the new shares will not be listed before DEC 31 when they release the FY 07 results

So like i said earlier not sure where you got the impression that the stock was a no-no in fact it is  a YES-YES and the funny thing is by the time you open a position it might have become expensive in terms of the price-earnings multiple(another term for PE ratio)

@ aktopgun
I need to investigate ABC more intensely before saying more but they just completed their terminal in Ghana, and this haulage thing might be profitable ( even without Obajana). More scrutiny is needed on their balance sheet, management, competitors, what not but am gearing up for '08. U sure say u no wan call ur pikin Jehosaphat? That's guaranteed wisdom ( and proverbs) for life,
Best of wishes man,