BabaOlu:

@Aktopgun,

How you dey? How is Tobechukwu doing? Please which broker you dey use?

Ha! to tell you where he dey load him money? I dey fear that kin question ooo, rather ask him which brokers in his opinion are offering competent services.

Most good investors use a cocktail of brokerage houses, many brokers makes sense, quarreling, changing, reconciling, shifting some money to other brokers, thats the way to surviving this game.

Hope this helps.

@ all, My broker is pestering me to buy IBTC, i suspect maybe he is trying to off load some stocks, what do u guys think, plz let me know b4 I buy tomorrow, other suggestions are also welcome, i am thinking 3-6 months with at least 70% returns

@Gonziii, IBTC is not such a bad stock on its own, only thing is that it may get lower in price terms before it finally goes up.
Secondly, I never allow my broker to pressure me into buying anything, that decision is mine and mine only, I accept their recommendations, but that is for my overall approval.

gonziiii:

@ all, My broker is pestering me to buy IBTC, i suspect maybe he is trying to off load some stocks, what do u guys think, plz let me know before I buy tomorrow, other suggestions are also welcome, i am thinking 3-6 months with at least 70% returns

Ask your broker why you should buy IBTC at current price? If he can get it for you at 20% discount then no problem.

For your information, IBTC asset management did not place a BUY on the share. It is actually a HOLD which to me is close to a SELL. Yes IBTC is a good bank but right now, not really facing the competition. Will definitely not BUY at current price.

invisible!:

Since, wanajo has not replied this one, let us presume he has gone to church, or to pray. His assistants can try to step into his biiig shoes! and answer for him.
Intercontinental is a consistent performer, a very ambitious bank with very good management. Buying it for the 6-9 months will make sense if you can confirm that they will be allowed to pay dividens and or bonus this February (as opposed to new banks closing date of December)

We better confirm what the true impact of banks uniform closure date will be in the short run or all of us will watch as our bank stocks lose serious value, it may bounce back in the Q3, in preparation for Q4 2008.

Will not BUY Inter at current price. With 19bn outstanding shares that is a good canditate for share reconstruction. If they do, where will the price be? N60.00 When you get to that point, it becomes difficult for the price to move up. That is what is affecting UBA. Most people will ask why UBA should be more expensive than First Bank? That's why the rpice is being pulled down.

If Inter makes the mistake of giving bonus, na wahala be that!!!

ACL:

@ Invisible.
                       hi, have been a silent reader 4 a long time.
what do u think 250k can buy in first quarter.have told my broker ikeja hotel since the money is too small 4 UBA OR GTB.Am changing my broker so its taqkin some time to get new acct opened,but hope its opened before end of the week so i can still get ikeja hotel below 7:00

thanks

If you are in it for the Long term, then go for UBA. If they can start the Angola branch, expect great opportunities from that area. Never liked UBA, but I like the returns that they give.

Surprises:

That is why anyone expecting 100% returns from any bank shares is not following the facts on ground. What drives price in NSE is BONUS not even dividend. See what mere rumour is doing to Japaul Oil. So with all these overbloated outstanding shares of banks, analysing minds already know that majority of them, apart from UBA and perhaps GTB and Diamond Bank, cannot give bonus this year or in the nearest future. So what is going to drive the prices?
As for insurance, there days are numbered with the upcoming POs they are planning to do. How can a can an insurance company that cannot make up to 400m a year be having shares outstanding of 5-10bn? And regarding them, not all is known. By the time the facts are down, you will be surprised that some petty insurance firms have jumbo outstanding shares than even some banks. First half of 2007 may not quite repeat itself, except fundamentals do no longer matter in the choice of shares in the capital market. Oasis? What have they recorded this year so far? NEM, just 333m PAT with outstanding shares that some calculators cannot carry Na look I de look. Una go come oooo. Well in insurance stocks na CICO, sometimes many times within a month. I still thank them for that opportunity sha

The truth is that on many occasions, the market defies logic so never say never.

While share reconstruction may look attractive, very few banks will likely go that route. major problem will be the HIGH share price that will result. if Inter does a reconstruction and the price is now N80.00 and First Bank stays does nothing and the price is N50.00, soon the price of Inter will be dragged down. The question will be why should Inter be more expensive than First Bank? That's the mentality of an average investor in Nigeria.

As per isnurance, people's expectation is so high that I wonder why the optimism. Just look at the EPS, growth rate and the over bloated outstanding shares and you can see that there is going to be Wahala. A single claim can wipe out the whole profit of a company in that sector. Based on that, they are normally conservative with their dividend and even bonus. For me the BEST days are over for them. NEM after merging/acquiring Vigilante without reposrting the new shares is already into another acquisition of Lombard and they will still do a PO. This was a company that offered its rights in 2006 @ N0.55. Before this time, it has not paid any dividend for almost three years!!! Now the price is N4.00 and some brokers are asking people to buy. Where were those brokers when NEM was N0.55

Though margin is small in the Food and Beverages sector, that to me is where the value is right now.

Now as per Guiness, don't know much about it. However, it always take some time for the market to realise the value in some fairly valued or undervalued stocks. However, sooner or later, the market will see that. Check out Nigerian German when it was 4.00!!! Of course it was undervalued. Nothing has changed since then but look at teh price now. It did not take a massive leap. It is a gradual movement till it get to where it is now. Most stocks passes through that phase. I mean a phase when it is being ignored by investors. Same thing is hapepning to UBA and DSR now. Watch when they start there gradual but stable movement.

@ Wasky-Waja's 40m loan issue,

Most people don't even know the guys "pocket" and are already proclaiming it a recipe for disaster, high blood pressure, psychiatric medication etc.  Why should it be? If some are comfortable borrowing 1m, and the guy is capable of borrowing 40m (the equivalent risk of other peoples 1m to him) then I'm show he's not a joker and knows what he's doing,  It's not anyone that the banks give 40m to ,  If you add up several peoples portfolios on this site (borrowed money portion), it will surpass 40m wouldn't it? ,  so all of them added together make a recipe for disaster? Plus the guy would probably diversify (I hope) making it seem like a few peoples folios being brought together. After all the only thing that counts is the percentage gain regardless of the size of the portfolio   ,  Big money, Small money, all make the same % gain on the same stocks now. Wish responses would focus on that as opposed to the size of the loan.  If na Dangote pikin come announce this dilema, the conversation for no take this angle  

@esco399, you are talking as if we were condemning his actions, no we are not. We are only tyring to advice the guy. My attitude is that of siddon watch, but let him be kind enough to tell us of the outcome of this adventure.

Risks are good, the bigger the better, and , the deadlier!

For the guys you think are taking small risks, their fall will be smaller, he who is on the ground, fears no gravity. We encourage him to take on the bull, for six months, so we can call the NSE, LAS VEGAS CASINO

@ invisible , no my guy. I'm not saying you are condeming it. At all! I'm saying the size of the loan is clouding the judgement in the responses. And also, I'm not advocating for people to take bigger risks. At all. I'm saying the risk he is taking may be a very small one (hence smaller fall as you've said). Maybe 200m is the big risk for him. One size does not fit all now. For all you know, he can loose that amount of money in a day and still smile to the bank. I just wanted peeps to focus & be more objective that's all. All comments and responses are good, but it started going way left for me. I do have to add that there have been objective responses in some of the comments though, keeping it on that track would be nice for the guy in the dilema.

esco399:

@ Wasky-Waja's 40m loan issue,

Most people don't even know the guys "pocket" and are already proclaiming it a recipe for disaster, high blood pressure, psychiatric medication etc. Why should it be? If some are comfortable borrowing 1m, and the guy is capable of borrowing 40m (the equivalent risk of other peoples 1m to him) then I'm show he's not a joker and knows what he's doing, It's not anyone that the banks give 40m to , If you add up several peoples portfolios on this site (borrowed money portion), it will surpass 40m wouldn't it? , so all of them added together make a recipe for disaster? Plus the guy would probably diversify (I hope) making it seem like a few peoples folios being brought together. After all the only thing that counts is the percentage gain regardless of the size of the portfolio , Big money, Small money, all make the same % gain on the same stocks now. Wish responses would focus on that as opposed to the size of the portfolio. If na Dangote pikin come announce this dilema, the conversation for no take this angle

I guess you should read the whole discourse once again so that you can have a better understanding of the issue at stake.

The value of the loan is not the issue but the structure. A six month loan for the capital market (long term investment) is what is called a mismatch. This is what I termed a 'recipe for disaster' It has nothing to do with the value of the loan. And if the person that started the discourse is to be believed, the loan is now structured for 12 months. Not the best but far better than the 6month loan.

Secondly, you don't collect a loan and pay the interest upfront!!!!! that basically reduces the amount of 'loan' collected. that also has nothing to do with the amount. It is just a no no.

When you pledge 40% for the loan (N16m in this case), one need to know what percentage of the guys total portfolio is being pledged. If you notice I asked this question. That will indicate the amount of risk that the person is taking. If that 40% is like 90% of his total portfolio, then that is a risk too much to take. His whole portfolio can be wiped off so the question will be whether the risk is worth it.

FYI, I collected a loan to buy a 'useless' stock but it was structured in such a way that I pay only 5% deposit, interest and capital to be paid after 12 or 18months which ever I want. Interest rate was 18%. So compare that with a 6months loan. (don't ask how I arrange the loan OOO)

Wanajo, in the post right above yours, i put this comment "I do have to add that there have been objective responses in some of the comments though, etc". My man, I was referring to your comments/responses, and I agree with most of it, some of which are arguble depending on the guys finances, but still doesn't discredit what you've pointed out. May exactly fit for him or any other reader, hence your responses were objective. Quoting recipe for disaster wasn't aimed at discrediting anything you said. Some of the other responses didn't do any of that. Keep up the good work man.

esco399:

Wanajo, in the post right above yours, i put this comment "I do have to add that there have been objective responses in some of the comments though, etc". My man, I was referring to your comments/responses, and I agree with most of it, some of which are arguble depending on the guys finances, but still doesn't discredit what you've pointed out. May exactly fit for him or any other silent reader, hence your responses are objective. Quoting recipe for disaster wasn't aimed at discrediting anything you said. Some of the other responses didn't do any of that. Keep up the good work man.

Nothing personal just trying to put things in perspective.

N40m sound big but like I posted, that is just 1m shares of First Bank out of over 19bn shares in issue.

For me, the key issues like I have higlighted is the tenor of the loan and the need to pay the interest upfront. I am also concerned as per the percentage of his portfolio that he might have pledged.

That said, i guess most people actually want him to succeed which was why they are offering him suggestions.

One thing that you should also know, when you collect a loan, your emotions take a greater part in your decisions. Similar to Forex trading, demo trading is so different from real life trading!

@wanaj0,

I'm disturbed about the upcoming listing of PO shares for Access. I have a lot and i'm aware a lot of people of loaded at around 25. The Q3 didn't move the price as expected and we all know what happened to Oceanic. How would you handle the situation.
How was service this morning. Hope you preached a very powerful sermon.

Thanks

Wonders shall never end!!!!

Being looking out for Goldlink PP. Saw the allottment result today! 814m shares of N1.00 each (they will soon do a stock split before listing) @ N1.50 per shares were placed on offer and fully susbcribed.

The funny bit was that only 8 (yes applications were received (don't know how), and the eight applicants applied for only the 814m so the placement witnessed 100% subscription!!!!

Watch as the share get listed @ N1.50 (after stock split thus guranteeing 100%) and the price jerked up to N5.00 before an IPO!!! Na this kind of PP me I like. No be the jamboree type!

Soon, brokers will be recommending Goldlink! Where were they when the PP was taking place.

Please, anyone know anything about the offer for sale for Nigerdock? Lead Capital is probably handling this.

Favour08:

@wanaj0,

I'm disturbed about the upcoming listing of PO shares for Access. I have a lot and i'm aware a lot of people of loaded at around 25. The Q3 didn't move the price as expected and we all know what happened to Oceanic. How would you handle the situation.
How was service this morning. Hope you preached a very powerful sermon.

Thanks

If I am you, I will jump out now. At 22.00, those that bought the PO would have made over 50% hence nothing will stop them from exiting!!!! They have absorbed too many shares as far as I am concerned.

wanaj0:

If I am you, I will jump out now. At 22.00, those that bought the PO would have made over 50% hence nothing will stop them from exiting!!!! They have absorbed too many shares as far as I am concerned.

Do you have approx. date for the listing? Thanks for your prompt reply.

Good day Wanjo and other Gurus in the house ,thanks for the great work you guyz are doing . Kindly help a brother.Which stock do u think will be good to buy now for a long term investment 7 to 12months and please what do you think about EQUITYASUR ,my broker advised me to buy it after I instructed him to buy AIICO for me and he said its hard to get .

Please help

Favour08:

Do you have approx. date for the listing? Thanks for your prompt reply.

No I don't!!!!

GBGHOSTBOY:

Good day Wanjo and other Gurus in the house ,thanks for the great work you guys are doing . Kindly help a brother.Which stock do u think will be good to buy now for a long term investment 7 to 12months and please what do you think about EQUITYASUR ,my broker advised me to buy it after I instructed him to buy AIICO for me and he said its hard to get .

Please help

Ask your broker what is the Unique Selling Point for Equity assuarnce. Why should you buy it?

Personally, I have enjoyed the insurance stocks now is the tiem to say THANK YOU. They all will be doing PO's followed by share reconstruction! These are companies whose profit is not up to N1bn

Thanks Wanjo for your responses. I’m a big fan of your post and I love your principles. I do long term. Can u advice me on any stock I can invest in? let say with 1million naira,I will love to split it into 5stocks. Is ikejahotel good to buy at that price?

Regarding the stock my broker recommended, I’m not buying that cos I don’t know much about that company and I accept your advice.

Just looking at the International Breweries allottment.

Only about 50,229 people applied.

Now, 8 people were alloted 1.2bn shares out of the 1.6bn with the core investor applying and getting allotted 50% of the shares on offer (805m shares). So while 8 people got 75% of the shares on offer, the remaining 50,221 with total application for 4.6bn shares were asked to share 400m shares which is less than 10%!!!!!

They intended crediting account straight into CSCS by February 12. I doubt whether UBA registrars can pull this off. Refund money will be paid back with interest.

Well, if you can't get in as a preferential investor, be careful of shelling big money OOOO!!!

GBGHOSTBOY:

Thanks Wanjo for your responses. I’m a big fan of your post and I love your principles. I do long term. Can u advice me on any stock I can invest in? let say with 1million naira,I will love to split it into 5stocks. Is ikejahotel good to buy at that price?

Regarding the stock my broker recommended, I’m not buying that because I don’t know much about that company and I accept your advice.

Don't discontenance the advice of your broker. Just ask for his reasons. If he sounds convincing you should go and buy. For all you know, he might have inside information.

I have DSR and UBA on my radar for now. I am actually buying those 2 this week. I also some of the aluminium companies in view. However, volume is low and they are not liquid hence difficult to buy.

Thanks bro, I appreciate your effort and time. I will do as u said. Remain bless bro.

@Wanajo.

You finally answer my question. Thanks.

and as we enter the fasting season, may the Faithful one multiply His grace towards us.

@ wanajo, I understand. You remain a selfless guy blessing others with your knowledge.

@wasky-waka,
sorry I hadn't yet given my suggestions. I'd suggest serious diversification,  Maybe even up to 40 stocks with the volume u'd able to command, the % distribution would depend on your goal/strategy (CICO, growth etc) . Set purchase limits allowing you to buy at low prices and sale limits mandating a sale after 10% -  30% net profit is made (sell all if it is a CICO stock, sell a portion if it is a stock that'll still appreciate). Lock in your profits. If well diversified, it'll be like a monthly/bi-monthly paycheck you're reinvesting. You need not worry if the prices still go up after that as long as your are inputting the money into another stock or even the same stock (if it can still fetch you another 10% - 30%). 10% - 30% is much easier to come by. Greed can wipe away gains or even cause a loss, but depends on your risk appetite. You can still reach your goals with compounding on these. Chasing 100% (in that time frame), hmm chances of finding that "magic stock" are much slimmer, the odds are greatly against you, but the "average" stock plenty for ground, but depends on your strategy. Leave a certain % of the folio liquid and have outstanding purchase mandates (waiting for your CICO stocks to fall to purchase price) so you are not really leaving the money idle. This will not only fund the acct but also allow you to pick up any "new" "majic stock" oppurtunities that come along (you can then cancel some of you pending mandates to balance your acct if such happens. Nothing worse than an oppurtunity coming up (that you were priviledged to know about) but had to miss out on due to liquidity. Since this was idle money anyway, you can afford to ride the long wave up to 100%. It wasn't a part of your game plan. A large percentage of the folio should be on solid growth stocks, fundamentally sound, longer term (safe guranteed returns), but also depending on your risk appetite. With CICOing, know that compounding is key, and the frequency with which you CICO is key. Sorry, since You & your friend already seem to have a nice & varied selection of stocks, I thought I'd recommend a strategy instead (plus there are people here much better at analysing stocks than I am),  with their input, the strategy you use now will be key, but my guy, there is almost no magic formula that'll help you reach your goals. You may have to reevaluate/rearrange portfolio from time to time (also why you need liquidity), and change gears etc to reach goals. Mix it all up and give weight/greater % to what suits you best. i.e. engineer the NSE to meet your goals. All the best man.

@wanajo

been loading uba from last week   , hence my analysis that i posted a few days ago. nice one bros!

oceanic is another candidate as well from the looks of it.

aktopgun:

@wanajo

been loading uba from last week , hence my analysis that i posted a few days ago. nice one bros!

oceanic is another candidate as well from the looks of it.

Hope I go still get small to buy OOO

@wanajo:Invisible

When do u think i can dispose my mutual benefit, bought @3:10 (200,000 unit.)
sometime i do long time or short time and what can i buy.
have just added a new broker cos the previous one annoyed me.their service is so poor,their office is crowded and their boss gives them a target that is very high.
am buying 4k UBA as soon as my new cscs acct is opened.

Hi Wanajo,

Good job, you are doing here. Enriching!

Pls. send me your e mail address and phone number. I'll like to keep in touch.

dor2y@yahoo.com
08033381275

Remain Blessed.

All,

I must confess I have enjoyed and learnt a lot from you guys.

I need your advice, Last year I participated in the First bank PO through the UBA shareplus scheme and i applied for N10m worth of share, last week i was told FB returned N8.3m, i need your advise on how best to use this funds for maximum profit mainly within the banks as i am restricted in the type of shares that can be bought by the UBA stockbrokers.

Thanks

Eterna Oil.

I am thinking of selling with a very small profit (not met my target). Any reason why I should hold on Quite an important decision, please let me know if you have any info.

Where is FatherOf2, abi na don they do shift with Wanajo, ?,

Enjoy your weekend,

wanaj0:

Just looking at the International Breweries allotment.

Only about 50,229 people applied.

Now, 8 people were alloted 1.2bn shares out of the 1.6bn with the core investor applying and getting allotted 50% of the shares on offer (805m shares). So while 8 people got 75% of the shares on offer, the remaining 50,221 with total application for 4.6bn shares were asked to share 400m shares which is less than 10%!!!!!

They intended crediting account straight into CSCS by February 12. I doubt whether UBA registrars can pull this off. Refund money will be paid back with interest.

Well, if you can't get in as a preferential investor, be careful of shelling big money OOOO!!!

Thanks for this info.
Looks like many public offers are now a waste of time if you need large quantities. Suspect peoples money could be used to fund the so called preferrential allotments. How transparent are the books to prove otherwise. The registrars and their cohorts can even sell on the floor to fund the money for return checks to poor investors that have been coned. Perhaps I'm thinking too far but it is not impossible. Perhaps I will research to see which of the registrars/issuing houses that could be mischievous.

i've made my position clear on P.Os - since i've been vaccinated against them, i am now immune and will even take a booster dose in a few months lest i am bitten by the P.O bug down the line.

what a big waste of time and more importantly, money!! investors aren't being protected enough in the nigerian market i dont think.

@ Prince11

 I dey . Only i no go dey available small for some very strong business reasons.

@ Wasky- Waja

  I dey come. I go give you info. No fear at all. N40m no be money. I know my personal networth i dey trade am weekly, [size=15pt]HIGH BP [/size] no worry me for almost 5 years.
 All d people wen don make 3000% profit ,ask dem how much dem put inside,because of fear na N290,000 dem put inside.
 IF YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO MAKE A LOSS, YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO MAKE A PROFIT IN THE NSE.
 Call your bank manager make e add N10m join am sef.
 That's chicken change. I have seen someone trade 3 times that on intercontinental in a day.
 I DEY COME. Just need to go urgently.
When did you say the loan will be ready again?.I'll check the thread on that day.

Fo2.roughcut

Can u please help me out on these.


When do u think i can dispose my mutual benefit, bought @3:10 (200,000 unit.)
sometime i do long time or short time and what can i buy.
have just added a new broker because the previous one annoyed me.their service is so poor,their office is crowded and their boss gives them a target that is very high.

i have 250k ( guess its change to u guys) buying 4k UBA as soon as my new cscs acct is opened:: reasonable or what do u suggest.