As an international tribunal prepares to rule on
Beijing's territorial claims in the South China Sea,
officials in Washington, Tokyo and Southeast
Asia are on tenter hooks Yet, in the words of one senior Chinese official, Beijing does not care.
On July 12, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will rule on a case brought by
the Philippines against China over its territorial
claims and actions across the disputed waters and
vital global trade route.
Beijing claims some 90 percent of the South China
Sea, and the Philippines is challenging it under a
United Nations maritime convention.
"We do not know, we don't care, in fact, when this
arbitration decision will be made, because no matter
what kind of decision this tribunal is going to make,
we think it is totally wrong," China's ambassador to
the UK, Liu Xiaoming, told Reuters at a recent lunch in London.
"It has no impact on China, on China's sovereignty
over these reefs, over the islands. And it will set a
serious, wrong and bad example. We will not fight
this case in court, but we will certainly fight for our
sovereignty."
Beijing's plans to ignore the ruling would represent
both a rejection of the international legal order and a direct challenge to the United States, which believes China is developing islands and reefs for military, as well as civilian purposes in a threat to stability.
It would also significantly raise the stakes over
dispute, according to lawyers, diplomats and security experts.
How Washington handles the aftermath of the ruling is widely seen as a test of its credibility in a region where it has been the dominant security presence since World War Two against an increasingly assertive China.
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China in turn sees this as a matter of defending its
territorial and political sovereignty against the United States.
Other nations laying claim to disputed areas of the
South China sea felt emboldened to challenge China
because they felt they had the United States on their
side, Liu said.
"They probably believe that they have America
(behind them) and they can get a better deal with
China. So I'm very suspicious of America's motives."
So while Beijing scoffs at the imminent decision, it is also making an international PR effort to get its view heard.
Beijing has organised meetings with diplomats and
journalists and has expressed its views in a slew of
editorials and academic papers around the world.
"Manila has no leg to stand on," said one report in
the China Daily's inaugural New Zealand edition.
Asian and Western diplomats said their Chinese
peers were raising the issue constantly, and at all
levels.
"It's relentless. We haven't seen anything like this in
years," said one Asian-based Western envoy.
China says more than 40 countries back its position
that such territorial disputes should be handled
through bilateral discussions not international
arbitration, although only a handful of countries have publicly voiced their support.
Both Chinese and Western analysts say the ruling is
not just about the territorial claims in the South
China sea, but speaks to broader Sino-U.S. tensions
over China's rise.
"This is about exposing Washington's declining
primacy," said Zhang Baohui, a mainland security
expert at Hong Kong's Lingnan University. "China
gains reputational power by showing the U.S. that it
can't dictate Chinese actions."
Beijing in propaganda overdrive ahead
of key court ruling As an international tribunal prepares to rule on Beijing's territorial claims in the South China Sea, officials in Washington, Tokyo and Southeast Asia are on tenterhooks.
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