[size=14pt]FG: Nigeria’ll Not Enter Recession [/size]


The Federal Government, in its Medium-Term Expen-diture Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (Revised), submitted to the Senate by President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua for approval, has indicated that although, the rate of economic growth in Nigeria is projected to decline next year, the nation would not enter economic recession due to government’s fiscal and monetary policies.
The covering letter to the MTEF dated September 29, 2009, was read on the floor of the Senate last Wednesday, by the Senate President, Senator David Mark.The document, prepared by the Budget Office of the Federation, indicated that “fiscal policy for 2011 to 2012 has been formulated in a difficult macro-economic setting, with economic growth forecasted to slow to just 2.61 per cent in 2010 and inflation currently above its long term trend.
“The government has, therefore, had to carefully balance the potential benefits of an expansionary fiscal policy on aggregate demand and short term economic growth, against the negative effects such a policy might have on inflation, macroeconomic stability and long term economic growth.” the report said. The MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper noted that “headline inflation is forecasted to decline in the medium term, due to decreased aggregate demand and successful implementation of policies to control inflation by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
According to the report: “The Naira to US dollar exchange rate is forecasted to stabilise at 147, over the medium term, with the upward pressure on the exchange rate caused by a projected increase in the price of oil, negating the downward pressure caused by the high rate of inflation in Nigeria, relative to the USA.“The rate of economic growth in Nigeria is projected to decline in 2010, due to a fall in aggregate demand caused by the global recession.
However, due to government's fiscal and monetary policies, Nigeria will not enter recession and the rate of economic growth is expected to increase in 2011 and 2012.” The document noted: “government plans to increase thebenchmark price of oil from $45 in 2009 to $50 in 2010; this will result in a substantial increase in budgeted oil revenue from N969 billion to N1,184 billion between 2009 and 2010, despite a forecasted decline in oil production.
“There is a further increase in oil revenue in 2011 to N1,396 billion due to an increase in the benchmark price of oil to $52.5 and increased oil production. Further increases in the benchmark price and oil production drive an increase in oil revenue from N1,396 billion in 2011 to N1,566 billionin 2012. “The benchmark price for oil is forecasted to be below theprojected market price for oil in 2010 of $57.20; this means that as long as there are no unexpected shortfalls in oil production or non-oil revenue, savings should accrue to the ECA in 2010.“Non-oil revenue in 2010 is forecasted to decline from its 2009 budgeted amount and there are two reasons for this decline.
“Firstly, non-oil revenue collection targets in 2009 were set at an ambitious level and may not be met.“Secondly, non-oil revenue may decline due to the slowdown in economic growth caused by the global downturn. Total Federal Government revenue is forecasted to decline from N2,265 billion in 2009 to N2,096 billion in 2010; with the decrease in non-oil revenue outweighing the increase in oilrevenue.”


http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=156826


Are these politicians for real,in my book,Nigeria has been in recession for so many years now,going by the definition of recession:

Definitions of Economic recession on the Web:

In economics, a recession is a general slowdown in economic activity over a sustained period of time, or a business cycle contraction.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_recession

A slowdown in economic activity marked by less consumer spending and often also by higher unemployment.
www.mariner.org/chesapeakebay/century/vocab.html

A temporary slow-down in economic growth
www.think-energy.co.uk/ThinkEnergy/16-18/glossary/Default.aspx

A decline in economic activity (GDP) that persists for at least two quarters


So nairalanders after going through the above,do you think Nigeria is in recession already or you're going with the FG's position that Nigeria is not

These people are so much out of touch with reality

wrong analysis @post,
in truth naija hasn't been in recession, going by our books,

but rather the level of corruption and looting has made what was supposed to filter down to the masses,
filtered to thier own pockets.

Never , mind this baggas. We are already in recession. Come to the Ports. the level of importation is very low now compared to what it used to be in the olden days. Olden days, i mean, August rush when Christmas goods come in so much. The vessels are coming one by one.
The banks are not giving out loans to importers due to the fact that the banks are already in recess.

I am always saddened by all this govt analysis. did they even know what their citizens are passing thru by the day?
Naija has bn in recession since 1985 when IBB came into governance.They better keep their mouth shut if they have nothing sensible to soothe this pains.

Our situation is soo tiring,

Dont Mind them ooooo, NIGERIA HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN RECESSION, Before the global meltdown started, or how do you explain, a comatose education, tourism,security,power, health,banking and transportation sector.

iam surprised anyone out there thinks nigeria hasnt been in recession for God knows how many years now!!

imagine how many millions of nigerians travel abroad to different parts of the world to work, and one way or another they are able to seek some form of employment and get paid reasonably well enough to have enough to feed themselves and their families back in nigeria, in my books apart from the fact that those countries must be doing very well economically i reckon nigeria on the other hand should b able to provide employment for whats left of her workforce since so much of its citizens seem to find a way to relieve the country of the burden of providing them any employment.
well it just so happens that the govt either does not give a rats ass about its people and whether they starve or not or they are just too shallow minded to imagine how much more nigeria would be a force to reckon with internationally if only they stopped their dependence on oil and invested in developing different other sectors of the economy, thereby creating employment and keeping hold of the vast amount of great minds we seem to have an innate ability to waste in nigeria while the coutries that value them snatch them up from under our noses.
dudes our simple inability to create employent in nigeria is a very big sign of how much and how long we have been in a recession.
now thats not even mentioning the other aspects of our economy thats been in a rot for years and years.

I completely agree. We are not in a recession. Recession as a word is used by countries who understand the dynamics of economics, budgeting and all other indicators. There is no word to describe what we are in so the FG is right, we are not in a recession, we are completely in something else to be defined soon.

Its obvious that am a better Political Economist than most of this economic planners in naija.

we have actually been living in recession room for so long that we dont even know where we hid the key. the key don lost tay tay.

tobiloba82:

Never , mind this baggas. We are already in recession. Come to the Ports. the level of importation is very low now compared to what it used to be in the olden days. Olden days, i mean, August rush  when Christmas goods come in so much. The vessels are coming one by one.
The banks are not giving out loans to importers due to the fact that the banks are already in recess.

You are wrong- it is because the people abroad, who ship things to Nigeria do not have enough money anymore, because of the recession in the country they live- not because of the recession in Nigeria - how can the level of import to a country dictate how vibrant that country is?

@topic

actually nigeria is in a perpetual depression

Problem is, politicians in Nigeria and other citizens are usually on different pages. Did you listen to the President's independent day broadcast? Did you hear all the growth figures he was quoting?

Recession

A period of general economic decline; typically defined as a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters. A recession is typically accompanied by a drop in the stock market, an increase in unemployment, and a decline in the housing market. A recession is generally considered less severe than a depression, and if a recession continues long enough it is often then classified as a depression. There is no one obvious cause of a recession, although overall blame generally falls on the federal leadership, often either the President himself, the head of the Federal Reserve, or the entire administration.


Depression
Definition: a long-term economic state characterized by unemployment and low prices and low levels of trade and investment

WE ARE IN A STATE OF DEPRESSION, WHICH IS CONSIDERED WORSE THAN RECESSION!

Prof Sam Aluko once chided these decievers when they told us that the Global Economic Recession will not affect Nigeria, he said that the recession has always been with us. When will they stop playing on our inteligence?

bidemi12:

I completely agree. We are not in a recession. Recession as a word is used by countries who understand the dynamics of economics, budgeting and all other indicators. There is no word to describe what we are in so the FG is right, we are not in a recession, we are completely in something else to be defined soon.

I honestly agree with you, Nigeria is in a situation called Corruprecession which can be defined as an artificial hyper recession caused by Mismanagement and Corruption. Don't you guys get it, Simply keep electricity constant for one week and then note its effect in our economy.,and the redistribution of income that will follow but no, why? because the rich and bad guys in Aso rock and beyond will lose revenue is light happens to be stable, and so many more, but kindly understand that Nigeria has potentials of enormous expansion If and only If the Infrastructure can be made available.
My 2 Kobo

Ok. Let's watch as crude oil price continues to crash. The Hausa fukani have led us into recession.

I wonder myself what the country is going through now;they like to deceive themselves;these criminals in government.

We all know the dont have integrity so they can say anything,just to make themselves look as though they are working;what have they done to make Nigeria a better country?

They should please hold their peace.

We had been in reccesion since time imemorial.

Theblessed:

Please, can they please stop deceiving themselves thinking they are deceiving us.  The truth is, Nigerian has been in recession since Biafran/Nigerian Civil war, ok! Imagine, the state of affairs in Nigeria? ??Unemployment level is over 300%, ??Exports increase or should I say Imports - how do you mean? The oil? Give me a break! Should our economic growth be judged alone on oil? ? Stock exchange activities, What about the Housing market etc - how many can afford it when they'd not enough to eat themselves. Pleeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaase, let us hear something! Giants are crying of economic hunger - recession, let alone baby!  I don't blame una! Keep playing with out minds, ok!

nigeria actually witnessed an oil boom after the civil war.

you might want the reduce the font by the way. we get what you are saying already.

A recession only occurs when a county has experienced real development as relates her GDP and per capita. Nigeria is far from recession, what we have right now is some level of underdevelopment and the consequences of aggregate corruption.

@bawolomo Abi?

bidemi12:

I completely agree. We are not in a recession. Recession as a word is used by countries who understand the dynamics of economics, budgeting and all other indicators. There is no word to describe what we are in so the FG is right, we are not in a recession, we are completely in something else to be defined soon.

Very true and very scary

supereagle:

Prof Sam Aluko once chided these decievers when they told us that the Global Economic Recession will not affect Nigeria, he said that the recession has always been with us. When will they stop playing on our inteligence?

Need I say more

Sentiments apart. Nigeria can not go into a recession because our economy is growing.
Of course poverty is increasing. But recession is simply what it is. an english word. Since our economy is not shrinking, we probably won't enter a recssion.
What i believe nigeria will enter is POVERSSION

yes na because they've always been in it

Theblessed:

Please, can they please stop deceiving themselves thinking they are deceiving us. The truth is, Nigerian has been in recession since Biafran/Nigerian Civil war, ok! Imagine, the state of affairs in Nigeria? ??Unemployment level is over 300%, ??Exports increase or should I say Imports - how do you mean? The oil? Give me a break! Should our economic growth be judged alone on oil? ? Stock exchange activities, What about the Housing market etc - how many can afford it when they'd not enough to eat themselves. Pleeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaase, let us hear something! Giants are crying of economic hunger - recession, let alone baby! I don't blame una! Keep playing with out minds, ok!

You are so wrong my dear. Yes we know the politicians are just reading another baseless manifesto but this analysis is wrong.

These people are mad forget. Mad i have over $20million in equipment that i cant sell in nigeria, and some more things on the high seas that im not even sure where i will find money to clear it, and u wanna tell me there is no recession. Infact they have lost it all i swear.