Have you noticed the crowd at ATM at banks recently. Most time, only 1 or 2 of the machines would be dispensing or non at all. Within the bank hall, the story is not different. Stories are being told of inability of banks in paying money over the counter; clients told to wait until people deposit enough for people to be paid. Was in GTB where a cashier told a man who came to clear a cheque that they were not financial capable of honouring the check, if he could come back later. The sum of the cheque ; N200,000.
This is a normal occurrence during the festive season but you will agree that the degree is particularly higher this year. Sadly, this is an unfortunate but indirect deliberate action from the FG arising from 3 main reasons producing "the butterfly effect"

1. FG FINANCIAL SHORTFALL; as is painfully obvious, the FG has been unable to pay salaries of most of its agencies and civil servants for the past month or two. Although there has been renewed drive in boosting the private sector, the bulk of money in circulation arises from the FG. The short fall is attributed to the economic recession currently affecting the country as well as stringent polices undertaking by the FG. This is further worsened by the inability of the CBN to checkmate the free fall of the Naira against the dollar. For the first time in years civil servants are being owned months as against the promise of being paid on the 25th of the month. The current predicament was foretold by the CBN about 5 months ago but was unfortunately down played by the FG that assured that it was capable of paying salary till the end of the year. With the skyrocketing of prices of products and the reduction in purchasing power of the currency. has made the yuletide one of the most difficult ever experienced.

2. In order to reduce recurring cost, the FG has told the CBN to stop printing new notes. Apparently, the cost of minting a new naira note is more than the face value of the note. This reduces FG cost in making money as a salvage means of saving money during this recession. The problem is this is a standing order that has been in effect for the past 6 months. Also, old and dilapidated notes are constantly being removed. This reduces the physical cash in circulation. Combined with the reduced purchasing power of naira notes, this creates an artificial scarcity. Considering that Nigeria is yet to achieve a cash less policy, ongoing recession, dependence on imported products as well as inability to locally produce such imported goods, this creates a stagnation in the economy

3. Due to 1 and 2 above, as well as well inability to achieve the budget benchmark for oil, repeated destruction of oil tanks, TSA effect on banks, etc, the revenue generating capability of the FG has drastically reduced. This has also affected the CBN's ability to provide a key function; cash flow. Ideally, the CBN lends finance in the billions and high millions to banks in the country on a daily basis at a certain interest rate. The banks allocate the shared amount to their various branches based on certain factors. Banks can also request for and loan other banks funds at certain rates on a daily basis.

Due to the above reasons, there is a drastic reduction in the amount the CBN can now give to banks. This also reduces the allocation banks give to their branches either on a daily or alt day regimen. Although such branches can generate money based on deposits but during the Yuletide season, the withdrawals are usually more than the deposits. As such, branches develop certain means to maintain the flow of physical cash I.e not honouring cheques above a certain amount, deliberately utilizing one or two ATMs, delays in over the counter withdrawals. Zenith bank in some states have placed a daily limit of 50,000 on withdrawals. Online transactions are not excepted as the sheer number of users have also increased; bank to bank transfers still works but payment of bills and services may experience hitches and delays. Unfortunately, considering the end of the fiscal year has been moved from January to March, such abnormalities may persist well into the next year.

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