Saudi Arabia pivots to Russia, the new sheriff in town

by Pepe Escobar for the Asia Times

What a difference a year – an eternity in geopolitics – makes. No one could see this coming; the ideological matrix of all strands of Salafi-jihadi terror – which Russia fights no holds barred, from ISIS/Daesh to the Caucasus Emirate – beating a path to the Kremlin and about to embrace Russia as a strategic ally.

The House of Saud was horrified by Russia’s successful campaign to prevent regime change in Syria. Moscow was solidifying its alliance with Tehran. Hawks in the Obama administration were imposing on Saudi Arabia a strategy of keeping oil prices down to hurt the Russian economy.

Now, losing all its battles from Syria to Yemen, losing regional influence to both Iran and Turkey, indebted, vulnerable and paranoid, the House of Saud has also to confront the ghost of a possible coup in Riyadh against Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, a.k.a. MBS, as Asia Times reported. Under so much pressure, who’re you gonna call?

The ultimate ghostbuster; Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Essentially, the House of Saud is obsessed by three main vectors; low oil prices; Iran and Shi’ism; and what to make of US foreign policy under Trump. Let’s take them one by one.

I want my S-400s

As much as a Moscow-Washington reset remains doomed, even with the implosion of Russia-Gate, House of Saud advisers must have known that the Kremlin won’t ditch its strategic relationship with Iran – one of the key nodes of Eurasia integration.

Moscow will keep aligned with Iran across “Syraq”; that’s part of the “4+1” (Russia-Syria-Iran-Iraq, plus Hezbollah) alliance in the Levant/Mesopotamia, an incontrovertible (and winning) fact on the ground. And that does not preclude Russia’s increasingly cozy relationships across the Arab world – as with Egypt, Jordan, the UAE and Libya.

What concerns Moscow, deeply, is Saudi (formal or informal) financing of Salafi-jihadi outfits inside Russia. So a high-level line of communication between Moscow and Riyadh works towards dissipating any misunderstandings regarding, for instance, jihadism in Tatarstan and Chechnya.

Moscow does not buy the much-spun (in the West) Iranian “aggressive behavior” in the Middle East. As a key negotiator of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Russia very well knows that Iran’s ballistic missile program is actually the key target of Trump’s imminent decertification of the Iran deal.

These missiles actually represent dissuasion against any possible US attack, “leading from behind” or not. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) in Tehran has made it quite clear the ballistic missile program does not fall into the JCPOA, and will remain active.

Enter the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the Saudis and Rosoboronexport (Russia’s state body for exporting military hardware) signed in Moscow for the purchase of the S-400 missile system; the Kornet-EM system; the TOS-1A; the AGS-30; and last but not least the new Kalashnikov AK-103.

The S-400 success story is unequivocal. Iran bought it. Turkey bought it. Now Saudi Arabia buys it – even after splurging a fortune in US weapons during Trump’s by now infamous “sword dance” visit to Riyadh.

So no wonder, after the S-400 news, the US State Department like clockwork approved the possible – that’s the operative word – $15 billion sale of 44 THAAD launchers and 360 missiles to Saudi Arabia, a very good business for Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.

The Pentagon’s defense security cooperation agency said, “this sale furthers US national security and foreign policy interests, and supports the long-term security of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region in the face of Iranian and other regional threats.” Cynics already envisage a battle of Iranian S-400s and Saudi THAADs “moderated” by Saudi S-400s.

We are the new OPEC

King Salman may have boarded the Saudi Arabian Airlines flight, but the real architect of the pivot to Russia is MBS. Oil in Saudi Arabia accounts for 87% of budget revenues, 42% of GDP, and 90% of exports. MBS is betting all his cards on the Vision 2030 program to “modernize” the Saudi economy, and he knows very well it will be impossible to pull off if oil prices are low.

At the Russia Energy Week forum in Moscow, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said the Aramco IPO – a key driver of funds to Vision 2030 – will happen in the second half of 2018, contradicting Saudi officials who earlier stated the IPO was once again postponed to 2019. And no one can tell whether it will take place in the NYSE or not.

Meanwhile, the priority remains the OPEC / non-OPEC deal (with Russia at the forefront) to “stabilize” oil prices, clinched in November 2016 to cut production. President Putin tentatively agreed the deal could be extended beyond March 2018, something to be discussed in detail at the next OPEC meeting in Vienna in late November.

The deal may certainly be seen as a purely strategic/economic measure to stabilize the oil market – with no geopolitical overtones. And yet OPEC is geared to become a brand new animal – with Russia and Saudi Arabia de facto deciding where the global oil markets go, and then telling the other OPEC players. It’s open to question what Iran, Algeria, Nigeria, Venezuela, among others, will have to say about this. The barely disguised aim is to bring oil prices up to a band of $60-75 a barrel by the middle of next year. Certainly a good deal for the Aramco IPO.

There were a rash of other deals clinched in Moscow – such as Aramco and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) $1 billion fund for oil-services projects in Russia, plus another $1 billion for a technology fund.

This synergy implies Saudi Arabia investing in top Russian energy assets and Russia, for instance, supplying gas to the Saudi petrochemical industry and reducing drilling/production costs. Certainly a good deal for Vision 2030.

The new sheriff in town

To say that the Saudi pivot to Russia is rattling nerves across the Beltway is an understatement. The CIA is not exactly fond of MBS. 9/11-related puzzles are bound to resurface.

What’s also clear is that the House of Saud has realized it cannot be left to watching camels as the great Eurasia integration caravan picks up speed. Russia has pipelines crisscrossing most of Eurasia. China is building rail lines connecting all of Eurasia. And we haven’t even touched specific Saudi-Chinese projects part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Those were the days of King Abdulaziz and FDR aboard the USS Quincy in the Suez Canal forging a strategic partnership; the days of Washington leading Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, drive down prices and weaken the USSR; the days of the Afghan jihad. Now there’s no US dependence on House of Saud oil anymore. And jihadist blowback is the name of the security game.


It may be too early to identify the Saudi pivot to Russia as the shift of the century. It is though a certified game-changer. Moscow is about to become the new sheriff in town, in virtually any town across Southwest Asia. And it’s getting there on its own terms, without resorting to a Colt dialectic. MBS wants energy/defense cooperation? He gets it. MBS wants less Russian cooperation with Iran? He doesn’t get it. OPEC aims at higher oil prices? Done. And what about the S-400s? Free – sort of – for all.

Ok

The irunmoles are transmitting signals to me that the Amerikan bastards are planning something very obnoxious & stupid through their CIA.

Remember that - The Amerikan foreign policy revolves around one single overarching theme: Prevent - by all means necessary - the emergence of a power, or powers, capable of constraining Washington’s unilateral swagger, not only in Eurasia but across the world.

Mother Russia has just broken this useless theme - and the Amerikans won't take this blow without putting up a fight.

But........In the absence of anything else, Comrades, join me as I propose a toast.

May our enemies (Saudi-Arabia) bow & run to us in their times of need - while their mentors & collaborators (Amerika, Israel & Britain) watch on helplessly. Hahahahahaa!

US House Introduces Bill to End Support for Saudi’s ‘Horrifying’ War in Yemen

UPDATE: Watch the begining of the Fall of Saudi. The puppet master has decided to start treating Saudi's fuc*k up and show them who is the Boss. Zionist lossing control since house of Saud has now bowed to the house of Putin. Another strong shift in the middle east conflict.

Lets see how the House of Saud will respond to this: (I am finally happy the poor people of the Yemeni will be free soon)

Citing human rights concerns, a bipartisan committee in the US House of Representatives has called for the US military to stop lending crucial support to the Saudi Arabian war in Yemen. The widely condemned Saudi intervention into the Yemeni Civil War has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people, many of them civilians.
The primary way the US has supported the Saudi-led coalition's incursion has been refueling missions flown by the US Air Force that allow their Saudi counterparts to continue a campaign of airstrikes in their southern neighbor. The new bill, House Congressional Resolution 81, would bar the US military from participating in any military action, including support for any side, in the Yemeni Civil War except operations against the powerful Islamic militant group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Resolution 81 "in no way restricts our military counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen," Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who introduced the bill, told Military.com. "All the bill basically does is say we should not be assisting Saudi Arabia in Yemen."

The bill has attracted 30 House co-sponsors, including Mark Pocan (D-Wisconsin), as well as prominent Republicans such as Walter Jones (R-North Carolina) and Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), Khanna's co-sponsor. Congress has not authorized any US military action in Yemen against anyone but AQAP.

Military.com asked if the bill could damage the US' relationship with Riyadh or other members of the Saudi coalition, such as their main partner the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Khanna denied such a possibility. "They need us far more than we need them," he said. "They're not going to tell the United States what to do."

"[The Saudis] need to assist us in the fight against terrorism, because it's the right thing to do, and they have no right to extract a price from the United States for going after terrorism," Khana added. "What my concern is, is that we need to reorient our foreign policy and not have an alliance with Saudi Arabia. But I have great admiration and great confidence in our military [in counter-terrorism operations], and I think our military can achieve those goals against [Daesh] and in Yemen."

He also argued that the US didn't really care who won the civil war between the Saudi-backed government of Abrabbuh Mansur Hadi and his rivals, the primarily Houthi rebel groups who have a rocky alliance with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. "We don't have any stake, in my view, in whether the Houthis are in power in Yemen — it's not in our national security interest," Khanna said.

Although the fighting continues to rage in Yemen, the war has entered a stalemate. Riyadh has been bombing and besieging the Houthi capital of Sana'a for over two years, but the city has yet to capitulate, despite many reports of extremely inhumane conditions faced by the residents. An estimated 14,000 civilians have been killed in the fighting, although it isn't clear how many of them died as a result of coalition activity. The Saudi blockade of Sana'a has also led to the worst outbreak of cholera in modern that has diseased over 800,000 people and killed around 2,100.

These atrocities are an "obscene reality occurring in the Middle East's poorest country, Yemen, at the hands of the region's richest, Saudi Arabia, with unyielding United States military support that Congress has not authorized and that therefore violates the Constitution," Khanna wrote alongside Jones and Pocan in a New York Times op-ed that went up on Tuesday. "We believe that the American people, if presented with the facts of this conflict, will oppose the use of their tax dollars to bomb and starve civilians."

The US has flown a reported 2,363 refueling sorties in East Africa as part of Operation Enduring Freedom — Horn of Africa, a military operation to support African and Middle Eastern countries in their battles against Islamic militant groups such as Daesh, al-Shabaab, and al-Qaeda. These missions have offloaded 80 million pounds of fuel to 10,400 aircraft since April 2015.

A statement from Air Forces Central Command (AFCENT) spokesman Capt. Jose Davis said that USAF does "not have the ability to break out this data just for the Saudi coalition jets in Yemen because our database does not break down details on each receiv[ing aircraft]."

AFCENT commander Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigan told reporters in September that the US military's involvement is limited to refueling Saudi aircraft. "Yes, we still provide tankers. Yes, we still have airmen in the Saudi [air operations center]. But I want to be very clear on this: We do not provide [or] advise on targeting," Harrigan said at the Air Force Association's annual Air, Space and Cyber Conference.


"What we have those airmen doing down there is basically assuring that any sorties that we would have in and around Yemen are deconflicted from what the Saudi-led coalition is flying."

Against AQAP, the US is willing to use military force — including, on two occasions since the civil war began, putting boots on the ground. The January Yakla raid was a disaster, killing dozens of civilians as well as one US Navy SEAL, for no tangible intelligence gains. The May Al Hathla raid was quiet but more successful, reportedly killing seven AQAP militants in a training camp.

A black man who supports and praise a man who sponsors white supremacy cannot be said to have a functional brain.