Finally, it's back! The Champions League
returns this week with its prestigious knockout
stages, pitting the continent's best clubs
against one another in gripping, two-legged
ties.
This is football's golden standard, its biggest
domestic stage, the competition that decides
and defines legends.
To preview its return, we've analysed each of
the 16 teams left and ranked them in order of
how likely they are to lift the trophy come May.
Think of it as a health check ahead of the
knockouts commencing, with form, fitness,
ability and Round of 16 matchup all factored
in. There's a clear No. 1, a gaggle of four or
five clear contenders...and big old pile of
pretenders—eight of which we'll say goodbye
to over the next few weeks.
16. Lyon
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In the space of one regrettable December week,
Lyon lost star attacker Memphis Depay and
emerging midfielder Jeff Reine-Adelaide to
severe knee injuries and drew Juventus in the
Round of 16 of the Champions League.
In the two months since, they haven't inspired
confidence that this team, in the state they're
in, can pull off what would be an almighty
upset against Cristiano Ronaldo and Co.
15. Atletico Madrid
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Atletico aren't necessarily the second-weakest
team in the knockouts, but they are one of
about seven that don't stand a realistic chance
of winning this competition—and of those
teams, they drew the shortest straw in the
Round of 16.
They're heading into a bout with reigning
European champions Liverpool while low on
goals, low on confidence and nursing a few
injuries to players who could transform their
fortunes if fit (Joao Felix being one ).
They're ranked above Lyon because, if some
miracle were to occur and both progressed,
Atleti would seem slightly better equipped to
go on an against-the-odds run.
14. Napoli
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Napoli's turbulent season and up-and-down
results make them extremely difficult to gauge;
they can look extremely poor one week, and
then brilliant the next.
It's notable that their wins tend to come
against the better sides—they've beaten Lazio,
Juventus and Inter Milan in the last month—
suggesting they feel more at home with a
reactive game plan in place.
Barcelona are their Round of 16 opponents,
and they'll give them plenty of space to play
into on the break. It may make for a tighter
game than people are anticipating, but it's still
tough to have faith they'll progress.
13. Tottenham Hotspur
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Spurs enter their matchup with RB Leipzig on a
three-match win streak—though, to be frank, no
one's quite sure how.
There's something to be said for their ability to
grind results, but the frailties shown vs.
Southampton and Aston Villa, plus the sheer
amount of luck that led to the win over
Manchester City, can't be glossed over just
because the games finished as wins.
Play anything like they have in the last three
against Leipzig, and they'll be ripped open and
punished. It's on Jose Mourinho to produce a
master tactical plan, sans Harry Kane
(hamstring), that can best a top side over 180
minutes.
12. Borussia Dortmund
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Man for man, Dortmund are a strong outfit with
an incredible attacking corps, but for the last
18 months we've watched them get torn apart
defensively by the strongest teams, so it's
difficult to put stock in their winning this
tournament, considering they drew Paris Saint-
Germain in the Round of 16.
We've seen them crush Bundesliga minnows
and rack up big scorelines, but we've also seen
them spring leaks left and right when facing
the best.
Dealing with speed in behind is a weak point,
making PSG a terrible matchup. January deals
for Erling Haaland and Emre Can made them a
better team but didn't address an issue that
probably dooms them at this level.
11. Atalanta
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The fearlessness that underlined Atalanta's
back-from-the-dead qualification for the
knockout stages will be on show in the Round
of 16. This team know no other way of playing;
they will attack, attack and attack some more.
No doubt they'll find the net against Valencia—
in fact, they'll probably manage it multiple
times—but it's fair to question two things: first,
how they'll deal with Los Che's incisive counter-
attacking ability in return, and second, whether
they possess the nous to succeed.
10. Chelsea
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Frank Lampard will have been watching on
grimly as Bayern Munich's confidence levels
and form spiked either side of a nice,
refreshing winter break. Meanwhile, his side
stuttered a little, completed no January
signings and saw the momentum that was
carrying their campaign falter.
To get past Bayern they'll have to play perfectly
in defence, which they don't seem capable of.
They're an exciting, enthusiastic side, but they
offer too many chances to opponents, and at
this level, that doesn't tend to go unpunished.
If they do produce a 180-minute performance
that propels them into the quarter-finals, it'll go
down as a key juncture in a young side's
development.
9. Valencia
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With no global superstars or fairytale storylines
to lean on, Valencia's merits have flown under
the radar somewhat.
But anyone who saw them beat Barcelona 2-0
in January can attest to their quality; on their
day they can rip you apart on the counter-
attack, using the speed and directness of
Rodrigo and Goncalo Guedes to great effect.
As with Atletico Madrid, Valencia don't feel like
the ninth-strongest team, but their Round of 16
matchup (Atalanta) plays a part here in a
reverse function.
8. RB Leipzig
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We'd call them a dark horse, but then, because
so many are already aware of Leipzig's
qualities, would it even be fair to label them as
that?
An electric attack led by Timo Werner has
tormented almost every defensive corps it has
come into contact with this season. They
possess the quality and variation to hurt any
type of opponent, and they've developed a
knack of refusing to be beaten—handy, given
the stakes at play.
As with Atalanta, perhaps the question relates
to the mental side of the game for Leipzig.
This is new ground for every player in the
squad; how will they handle it?
7. Bayern Munich
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Ever so steadily, Bayern Munich have crept
back to something resembling ominous form
under the guidance of stand-in manager Hansi
Flick.
They've scored three or more goals in five of
their last six games, the other being a goalless
draw with fellow Round of 16 German
representatives RB Leipzig. Robert
Lewandowski is on fire, the midfield makeup is
improved with Joshua Kimmich gluing it
together, and Alphonso Davies is a rising star
at left-back.
They're favourites for their match against
Chelsea for good reason; it feels as though
they've got the quality, the confidence and the
street smarts to progress.
6. Barcelona
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Every match Quique Setien has taken charge of
as Barcelona manager has brought fresh
positives but also fresh negatives. Many of the
top teams are in flux, but Barca feel the most
volatile.
On one hand, they look slicker than before
when in possession, and Lionel Messi has
turned into a creative machine. On the other,
they look extremely vulnerable to counter-
attacks, and Messi's lost his shooting boots.
In a comparison of Setien's Barca to Ernesto
Valverde's, they're better to watch but feel more
fragile. Time hasn't been on the former's side,
but the business stage of the season
starts this week; time is running out.
Napoli's threat on the counter and habit of
beating top sides lately will be a big worry for
Barca heading into this one. Their
overwhelming quality should see them emerge
victorious, but if Napoli's a bad matchup for
them, what does that make Paris Saint-Germain
or Liverpool?
5. Real Madrid
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Exactly how good are Real Madrid? They're
significantly improved compared to this time
last year, no doubt, but this top-tier test against
Manchester City will fill in the remaining
blanks.
They've reinvented themselves to an extent:
Once a free-scoring, overbearing force, they're
now a stodgy, obstinate, tiresome team to play
against that press and stretch you in ways you
won't like.
Los Blancos' hopes of Champions League glory
essentially rest on Casemiro continuing in this
other-worldly form he's showing, Thibaut
Courtois' renaissance lasting the entire season
and a few more goals being found from
somewhere.
The matchup against Manchester City will be
tense, tight and fraught, and the winner will
announce themselves as a true Champions
League contender.
4. Juventus
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Few clubs have placed a higher priority on the
Champions League than Juventus have.
Buying Ronaldo was the equivalent of sliding
all your chips toward the dealer; they're in win-
now mode and are desperate to hoist the
trophy, having lost two finals in the past
decade.
Still, Ronaldo's clutch qualities can't make the
difference on their own, and other players will
need to shine if this dream is to become a
reality. They haven't been convincing as a team
over the last few months but easily have
enough to get past Lyon in the Round of 16,
giving them more time to figure things out.
Like with the Super Bowl, it's often the side
who come to the boil at the right time who win
this tournament.
3. Manchester City
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If the fact that Manchester City are 25 points
off Liverpool in the Premier League title "race"
hasn't added fire to their Champions League
tilt, perhaps news that they're banned from the
competition for the next two seasons will.
It'd be best to win the tournament while they
still can.
A motivated, determined City side is an
extremely dangerous one. With Aymeric Laporte
back fit again after a knee injury to marshal the
defence, they're a serious threat.
2. Paris Saint-Germain
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The commencement of the Champions League
knockout stages is the most important part of
the season for many, but for PSG, it takes on
that extra layer of criticality.
Put simply, it defines whether their campaign
will be viewed as a success.
This team is phenomenally talented, well-built
and balanced, and possesses the firepower to
beat any side in Europe. Between Neymar and
Kylian Mbappe, the Parisians boast star quality
even Real Madrid cannot.
Their greatest opponent is not necessarily the
rival 11 deployed to restrain them, but the
ghosts of their past failures, such as La
Remontada, or Manchester United last year.
The talent has always been there—the
composure and execution always absent. But
2019-20 feels different.
1. Liverpool
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No surprises here: Liverpool, the reigning
European champions, the team in the midst of
an unbeaten Premier League season, the side
who have taken 103 points from the last 105
available, are ranked No. 1. There's no need to
overthink it.
Even at their worst, at their most vulnerable,
they seem to grind out wins—and when they do
click, they blow you away. The various injury
issues that have bugged their season seem to
have cleared up, meaning they're virtually at full
strength in time for the knockouts.
Their Round of 16 draw was favourable, with
Atletico Madrid poorly equipped to do what's
necessary to beat the Reds. No game at this
stage is a foregone conclusion, but...OK