The Covid-19 pandemic represents the biggest shock to the global energy system in more than seven decades, with the drop in demand this year set to dwarf the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and result in a record annual decline in carbon emissions of almost 8%.

A new report released today by the International Energy Agency provides an almost real-time view of the Covid-19 pandemic’s extraordinary impact across all major fuels. Based on an analysis of more than 100 days of real data so far this year, the IEA’s Global Energy Review includes estimates for how energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions trends are likely to evolve over the rest of 2020.

“This is a historic shock to the entire energy world. Amid today’s unparalleled health and economic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. “It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before.”

The Global Energy Review’s projections of energy demand and energy-related emissions for 2020 are based on assumptions that the lockdowns implemented around the world in response to the pandemic are progressively eased in most countries in the coming months, accompanied by a gradual economic recovery.

The report projects that energy demand will fall 6% in 2020 – seven times the decline after the 2008 global financial crisis. In absolute terms, the decline is unprecedented – the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer. Advanced economies are expected to see the biggest declines, with demand set to fall by 9% in the United States and by 11% in the European Union. The impact of the crisis on energy demand is heavily dependent on the duration and stringency of measures to curb the spread of the virus. For instance, the IEA found that each month of worldwide lockdown at the levels seen in early April reduces annual global energy demand by about 1.5%.

Changes to electricity use during lockdowns have resulted in significant declines in overall electricity demand, with consumption levels and patterns on weekdays looking like those of a pre-crisis Sunday. Full lockdowns have pushed down electricity demand by 20% or more, with lesser impacts from partial lockdowns. Electricity demand is set to decline by 5% in 2020, the largest drop since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

At the same time, lockdown measures are driving a major shift towards low-carbon sources of electricity including wind, solar PV, hydropower and nuclear. After overtaking coal for the first time ever in 2019, low-carbon sources are set to extend their lead this year to reach 40% of global electricity generation – 6 percentage points ahead of coal. Electricity generation from wind and solar PV continues to increase in 2020, lifted by new projects that were completed in 2019 and early 2020.

This trend is affecting the demand for electricity from coal and natural gas, which are finding themselves increasingly squeezed between low overall power demand and increasing output from renewables. As a result, the combined share of gas and coal in the global power mix is set to drop by 3 percentage points in 2020 to a level not seen since 2001.

Coal is particularly hard hit, with global demand projected to fall by 8% in 2020, the largest decline since the Second World War. Following its 2018 peak, coal-fired power generation is set to fall by more than 10% this year.

After 10 years of uninterrupted growth, natural gas demand is on track to decline by 5% in 2020. This would be the largest recorded year-on-year drop in consumption since natural gas demand developed at scale during the second half of the 20th century. The massive impact of the crisis on oil demand has already been covered in detail in our April Oil Market Report.

Renewables are set to be the only energy source that will grow in 2020, with their share of global electricity generation projected to jump thanks to their priority access to grids and low operating costs. Despite supply chain disruptions that have paused or delayed deployment in several key regions this year, solar PV and wind are on track to help lift renewable electricity generation by 5% in 2020, aided by higher output from hydropower.

“This crisis has underlined the deep reliance of modern societies on reliable electricity supplies for supporting healthcare systems, businesses and the basic amenities of daily life,” said Dr Birol. “But nobody should take any of this for granted – greater investments and smarter policies are needed to keep electricity supplies secure.”

Despite the resilience of renewables in electricity generation in 2020, their growth is set to be lower than in previous years. Nuclear power, another major source of low-carbon electricity, is on track to drop by 3% this year from the all-time high it reached in 2019. And renewables outside the power sector are faring less well. Global demand for biofuels is set to fall substantially in 2020 as restrictions on transport and travel reduce road transport fuel demand, including for blended fuels.

As a result of these trends – mainly the declines in coal and oil use – global energy-related CO2 emissions are set to fall by almost 8% in 2020, reaching their lowest level since 2010. This would be the largest decrease in emissions ever recorded – nearly six times larger than the previous record drop of 400 million tonnes in 2009 that resulted from the global financial crisis.

“Resulting from premature deaths and economic trauma around the world, the historic decline in global emissions is absolutely nothing to cheer,” said Dr Birol. “And if the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis is anything to go by, we are likely to soon see a sharp rebound in emissions as economic conditions improve. But governments can learn from that experience by putting clean energy technologies – renewables, efficiency, batteries, hydrogen and carbon capture – at the heart of their plans for economic recovery. Investing in those areas can create jobs, make economies more competitive and steer the world towards a more resilient and cleaner energy future.”

SOURCE: https://brandspurng.com/2020/05/10/covid-19-crisis-will-wipe-out-demand-for-fossil-fuels-iea/

Assumption upon Assumption

Stories , when the G8 economies wake up demand for fuel will return , even to make batteries for electric car you need Petroleum

Very illogical conclusion.

Except if COVID 19 will wipe out humanity, then you may be right.

But, as long there will still be human, and the humans need energy, fossil fuel remains precious for now.

The greatest problem that science has not been able to address is energy issues.

The world is made of abundant energy, but harnessing it is the greatest challenge.

Energy from the sun alone is tremendous, but very insignificant portion of it is being used. Indeed, effen the energy in fossil fuel is traceable to the sun.

For now, fossil fuel is the only source of energy in abundance that be completely transformed into useful purpose.

GamalNasser:
Stories , when the G8 economies wake up demand for fuel will return , even to make batteries for electric car you need Petroleum

You don't need fossil fuel to manufacture batteries.

The working mechanism of a battery is the movement of charges between the electrodes through a medium called electrolyte. The Electrolytes are inorganic acid such as H₂SO₄, HNO₃ and HCl. Neither the electrodes nor the electrolytes are made from fossil fuel.

Though, electric batteries can't take the place of fossil fuel, never.

The climate change rascals will be happy....

The worthlessness of crude oil is certainly @ hand.A nation that is wise will reduce dependence & diversify from it now.

The Oil Party after Party after Parte.....is over...for good.

Can we have our Biafra in peace now..?

Buhari and his Almajiri cabals that have taken over the oil sector, can we see how far you intend to keep it after the real owners have left the Lugard Union...?

Simplyleo:

You don't need fossil fuel to manufacture batteries.

The working mechanism of a battery is the movement of charges between the electrodes through a medium called electrolyte. The Electrolytes are inorganic acid such as H₂SO₄, HNO₃ and HCl. Neither the electrodes nor the electrolytes are made from fossil fuel.

Though, electric batteries can't take the place of fossil fuel, never.

Never say never

Simplyleo:

You don't need fossil fuel to manufacture batteries.

The working mechanism of a battery is the movement of charges between the electrodes through a medium called electrolyte. The Electrolytes are inorganic acid such as H₂SO₄, HNO₃ and HCl. Neither the electrodes nor the electrolytes are made from fossil fuel.

Though, electric batteries can't take the place of fossil fuel, never.

Plastic components incorporated in batteries include separators and casing components. Plastics have good shock absorbing characteristics (Polypropylene has good shock absorbing characteristics) and prevent damage to the basic cell unit from minor accidental shocks. And all these are derived from petroleum in petrochemical plant.

Oksman:





Plastic components incorporated in batteries include separators and casing components. Plastics have good shock absorbing characteristics (Polypropylene has good shock absorbing characteristics) and prevent damage to the basic cell unit from minor accidental shocks. And all these are derived from petroleum in petrochemical plant.

Plastic can be gotten from latex. Latex are gotten from plants (tree to be precise).

Note, chemical composition of natural plastic is superior to that of synthetic plastic. Just that synthetic plastic is easier and cheaper. Hence the movement from natural to synthetic plastic.

Xerxes2088:

Never say never

I know what I'm saying.

I repeat, never.

Simplyleo:

You don't need fossil fuel to manufacture batteries.

The working mechanism of a battery is the movement of charges between the electrodes through a medium called electrolyte. The Electrolytes are inorganic acid such as H₂SO₄, HNO₃ and HCl. Neither the electrodes nor the electrolytes are made from fossil fuel.

Though, electric batteries can't take the place of fossil fuel, never.

This my problem with one dimensional thinkers like you , you never see the clear picture of any process and that's why you end up supporting a man like Buhari .

First and foremost most lithium mines and the processess there are powered by fossil fuels from the power plants that power the mines to the heavy duty drills and earth movers .

After the lithium is unearthed it will be processed to spec in a factory probably powered by electricity from a gas powered or coal firing plant .

At your battery makers plant the entire plant is will be powered by some form of energy pulled out of some fossil fuel either oil or coal and battery factories use a lot of power .

The plastic housing for your batteries will come from petrochemicals gotten from from fosill fuel

After production the batteries will be ship to the electric car plant in a truck , train , ship or plane powered by fossil fuels , even electric trains are mostly powered by electricity generated from a fossil fuel .

When you buy your electric car you will most likely charge it with Electricity from a power plant powered by gas or coal which are fossil fuel

I hope you know the average electric car will end up leaving more carbon foot print than a small diesel truck ..

False!

Not in next 20 years.