The politician who tried and failed to make peace with Hitler, ex-British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, said, “In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers.” He was right. All the world is certain to lose from Russia’s unnecessary war on Ukraine.

The biggest loser is Ukraine itself. Towns and villages have been destroyed, thousands of civilians and soldiers have been killed or wounded, four million civilians have become refugees, six million are internally displaced, the country’s farmland and manufacturing plant have been devastated, and its economy has been wrecked. The damage and destruction inflicted on Ukrainian infrastructure is estimated at $60 billion at this point.

While there has been a surge in Ukrainian nationalism and solidarity, this could dissipate in the medium-to-long-term and create friction and tension within the society. Right-wingers, who set an aggressive tone as Russia deployed along Ukraine’s borders, could be blamed and targeted for setting the country on the warpath by refusing to drop Kyiv’s insistence on joining Nato, the longstanding casus belli for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, television comic turned domestic and global war “hero,” is likely to see his credibility and popularity at home and abroad shrink dramatically.

At the outset of the Russian troop build-up, he rightly and bravely warned US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson not to hype the situation as Ukraine’s economy was suffering from war-talk. Nato’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg joined the war claque with the aim of injecting life into the moribund alliance.

Biden and Johnson, who were facing serious domestic political challenges, did not heed Zelensky’s pleas and ignored his readiness to negotiate a deal with Putin which would mean formally renouncing Ukraine’s application to join Nato and forging deals to recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the autonomy or independence of the Donbas region. If this conflict is going to end, Zelensky could have to revert to the political status quo ante after Ukraine has been devastated physically and economically. Ukraine’s economy could shrink by 35-45 per cent this year.

Consequently, Zelensky would no longer be regarded as a hero but would be seen as a newcomer to politics who misread Putin and precipitated a war Ukraine could never win. He would lose support in Ukraine while, on the international scene, he would be castigated for propelling the world into a crisis caused by soaring food and fuel prices.

Putin is already a loser in the politico-military front. The Russian armed forces have not only failed to defeat Ukraine’s army but have also committed crimes against humanity and war crimes by attacking and abusing Ukrainian civilians. The Western-dominated International Criminal Court has already begun investigations into the behaviour of Russia’s troops with the aim of prosecuting those responsible for violations of international law.

If Putin is charged, he would be the first head of state of a major power to face prosecution.

However, Western leaders may be reluctant to go this far. Although Putin would refuse to appear before the court or a special tribunal set up for the Ukraine war, charging him would set a precedent which could lead US and other Western leaders to face prosecution for war crimes. The first should be former US President George W. Bush for his 2003 unprovoked aggression against Iraq. His partner in crime, ex-British Prime Minister Tony Blair, should be next in the dock.

Whatever Putin’s fate, Russia cannot be isolated and sanctioned forever. Despite punitive sanctions, Russia has managed better than Ukraine since the war began. The Financial Times (FT) predicts the Russian economy could shrink by 10 per cent this year. Inflation is currently falling and the domestic banking sector has stabilised. While Moscow cannot access $630 billion in foreign currency reserves in Western banks, Russia earned more than $1 billion plus a day in March from energy exports. This could eventually compensate for the seizure of the reserves.

The European Union depends on Russian oil and gas which cannot be replaced easily or quickly and the oil exporters cartel (OPEC+Russia) has vowed not to replace Russian exports if Europe breaks contracts with Russian firms. Furthermore, Moscow has already pivoted East where India and China are keen on increasing imports from Russia, particularly if they receive discounts.

Russian gas, oil, and coal are not the only exports on which the international community relies. Russian exports of nickel account for 49 per cent of the world’s total, palladium, 42 per cent, diamonds 33 per cent, aluminium 26 per cent, and platinum 13 per cent.

Bans on Russian commercial flights have deprived Russians of holidays abroad and destination countries of millions of dollars in revenue while Russian ships have been barred from Western ports, disrupting the flow of global trade.

Western exports to Russia and bans on Western companies operating there are denying Russians luxury goods, fast food, and Starbucks coffee while branches of Russian banks cannot operate in Western countries and many Russian banks cannot access the SWIFT transfer mechanism, creating obstacles to international commerce.

Meanwhile, the denial of Russian (and Ukrainian) grain to customers has pushed up the price of bread in his region and Africa and the absence of Russian fertiliser is harming farmers across the globe and boosting the price of vegetables, fruit and meat. The World Bank predicts a 37 per cent rise in the cost of essential food, which is unbearable for the poor in most countries.

While the Russian economy is neither as large or as vibrant as it could be, its absence cannot be tolerated in the long term if the interdependent global system is to be maintained.

Having stoked the fires of war, Biden and Johnson are also losers. Despite his engagement in Ukraine’s war effort, Biden’s overall approval rating has sunk to 38 per cent with 53 per cent disapproving of his performance. Only 35 per cent approve his handling of the economy – which is beset with a rising cost of living due to inflation and higher petrol prices – and a mere 40 per cent approve of his conduct in the Ukraine war, with 49 per cent disapproving.

Johnson has fared worse. His approval rating is 30 per cent with 51 per cent disapproving while the Ukraine crisis has ceased diverting public attention from partying during strict COVID lockdown at his offices and residence. Like Biden, his popularity depends on the cost of living crisis.

Finally, the European Union (EU) has lost its comfortable policy of coexisting with Russia and its members have had to come together to confront Moscow by providing Ukraine with weaponry and imposing destructive and disruptive sanctions. So far, the EU has maintained its unity and solidarity with Ukraine but when the war winds down and EU leaders jump off the bandwagon, personal political and national economic interests could assume priority, particularly if EU citizens find themselves taxed with the costs of providing for Ukrainian refugees and rebuilding that country.

The only winners of wars are profiteers and arms manufacturers.

https://www.gulftoday.ae/opinion/2022/04/24/ukraine-is-losing-heavily-from-conflict-with-russia

a very good analysis lalasticlala, mynd44, seun

Russia is also losing massively

God1000:
Russia is also losing massively

Did you read anywhere where the analyst said russia isn't losing? Ukraine is losing more than everyone. Learn to read

Well said

God1000:
Russia is also losing massively

The article was obviously too much for you to read.

MangekyoAlt:

Did you read anywhere where the analyst said russia isn't losing? Ukraine is losing more than everyone. Learn to read

the west will rebuild Ukraine when the war is over, Russia on the other hand will suffer immensely from economic sanctions for decades

Eventually, Putin will pay for all of this...

You can't start off fire and not have smoke stain on you fingers....

People from the west, keep typing and sympathizing for Zelensky, and Ukrainians from their comforts of their warm bedrooms while the comedian keeps asking for more weapons to make sure the fight even goes on for more than 10 years . It seems the comedy king does not even realize that his country is gonna be a pile of rubble by the end of the war.
Ask any European, they'd tell you that they would keep giving Ukraine weapons to fight Russia even to eternity. Same people who will tell you that a direct confrontation with Russia should be avoided at all costs but they are willing to use zombies from Ukraine as proxy.

ifex370:



The article was obviously too much for you to read.

I read everything man, you guys should stop lying that the west manipulated president Zelensky, that's a big lie.

I still remember the western diplomatic efforts, they extended olive branch countless times but Putin was hell bent on invading a sovereign country

MangekyoAlt:
People from the west, keep typing and sympathizing for Zelensky, and Ukrainians from their comforts of their warm bedrooms while the comedian keeps asking for more weapons to make sure the fight even goes on for more than 10 years . It seems the comedy king does not even realize that his country is gonna be a pile of rubble by the end of the war.
Ask any European, they'd tell you that they would keep giving Ukraine weapons to fight Russia even to eternity. Same people who will tell you that a direct confrontation with Russia should be avoided at all costs but they are willing to use zombies from Ukraine as proxy.

so Ukraine should just surrender their sovereignty to Russia in order to stop the war, if Russia is truly concerned about NATO encircling it, then invading Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia would have been wiser because these are NATO countries bordering Russia.

Why invading Ukraine that even America and Europe will not accept their NATO membership

God1000:
the west will rebuild Ukraine when the war is over, Russia on the other hand will suffer immensely from economic sanctions for decades

such an entitled fellow here! like Ukraine opened bank account with the US Federal reserve! Germany donated little below $50M to help rebuild Ukraine but has sent over $400M military aid to Ukraine, they flame the war efforts than any attempt to rebuild the torn cities of Ukraine

MangekyoAlt:


https://www.gulftoday.ae/opinion/2022/04/24/ukraine-is-losing-heavily-from-conflict-with-russia

a very good analysis lalasticlala, mynd44, seun

You can't charge one who has nuclear power putin is more powerful than USA president so the article is faulty.

God1000:
so Ukraine should just surrender their sovereignty to Russia in order to stop the war, if Russia is truly concerned about NATO encircling it, then invading Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia would have been wiser because these are NATO countries bordering Russia.

Why invading Ukraine that even America and Europe will not accept their NATO membership

@God1000, your obvious bias and hypocrisy will not change the dynamics on ground and you know this. No matter how much you wish for Ukraine to emerge victorious, you know it won’t. This was an unbiased and apt article, but you still could not hide your obvious bias.

Firstly, you lied that western diplomats tried to diplomatically avert war by extending olive branches to Putin. How please? Minsk 2 was negotiated by Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia, zelensky effectively tore up the deal and both Germany and France did absolutely nothing to ensure zelensky implemented the deal, which even predates his presidency, but somehow you believe it is Putin’s fault that diplomacy failed. When zelensky banking on western support incase of military confrontation torn up a deal that actually guarantees peace. Zelensky refused diplomacy and tore up Minsk 2 because he erroneously believed there would be NATO boots on ground.

Secondly, you talked about sovereignty, I believe a more worthy example should be seen in how the US and Australia is currently threatening the Solomon Islands with military consequences because of a military pact with China. The US is several miles away and the islands in question are a sovereign nation.

Lastly, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania were incorporated into NATO at the moment of Russia’s weakness. It is imperative to stop further encircling now. Mind you geographically, the territories of the Baltic nations do not offer much advantage to NATO.

The question I want you to answer today is this; what is the reason for NATO’s continuous encircling of Russia? Do not tell me that it is a defensive alliance because in all its military confrontations, non was due to article 5, rather it was always the invading force. If you cannot holistically say why the US found it hard to tolerate Soviet missiles in Cuba, why the Solomons are currently been threatened, you must then be a hypocrite for wanting Russia to allow NATO share a direct massive land border with it.

God1000:
I read everything man, you guys should stop lying that the west manipulated president Zelensky, that's a big lie.

I still remember the western diplomatic efforts, they extended olive branch countless times but Putin was hell bent on invading a sovereign country

200,000 thousand troops near your border is normal. This was how Africa was enslaved, russians are not stupid.

God1000:
I read everything man, you guys should stop lying that the west manipulated president Zelensky, that's a big lie.

I still remember the western diplomatic efforts, they extended olive branch countless times but Putin was hell bent on invading a sovereign country

Allowing the enemy camp around is the reason Africa got colonised

In all all history allowing enemy around you always end bad

God1000:
Russia is also losing massively

massively and yet the rubble is 73 to dollar today massive deep from 77 as of yesterday.
much better than before the war started.
some oligarch might be on the loosing end but trust me it's a win win for Russia.

olas24u:


200,000 thousand troops near your border is normal. This was how Africa was enslaved, russians are not stupid.

which 200,000 troops? Where are they stationed? this is another blatant lie

God1000:
which 200,000 troops? Where are they stationed? this is another blatant lie

So you don't even know that, that is why your comments are that of emotions.

God1000:
which 200,000 troops? Where are they stationed? this is another blatant lie

China is also being encircled at the moment, don't come here in the future using emotions.

olas24u:


So you don't even know that, that is why your comments are that of emotions.

lol, emotions ke

I know about US military presence in Poland where they have 82 airborne Division and other NATO countries in Eastern Europe, but the numbers you stated are pure exaggeration.

NATO has just recently boosted its eastern flank with more troops and weapons to reassure allies of protection since Russia invaded Ukraine

It was just a small deployment before the invasion, Ukraine excluded

olas24u:


China is also being encircled at the moment, don't come here in the future using emotions.

how is China being encircled?

The thing is, the countries bordering Russia and China prefer a stronger ties with US for obvious reasons, they know that both Russia and China will trample on them someday and they need protection.

God1000:
lol, emotions ke

I know about US military presence in Poland where they have 82 airborne Division and other NATO countries in Eastern Europe, but the numbers you stated are pure exaggeration.

NATO has just recently boosted its eastern flank with more troops and weapons to reassure allies of protection since Russia invaded Ukraine

It was just a small deployment before the invasion, Ukraine excluded

That is only Europe, Estonia, Lithuania, Japan, South Korea, are just a distant away from Russia, and they have permanent bases with troops, cumulative figures are around that size. Encircled in North of Europe, East of Europe, south Asia. So Russia should be begging? It was discussing these issues for 8 years. From Moscow to kyviv with hypersonic missile is less than 5mins. A serious country will do something.

God1000:
how is China being encircled?

The thing is, the countries bordering Russia and China prefer a stronger ties with US for obvious reasons, they know that both Russia and China will trample on them someday and they need protection.

When you encircle a country, you weaken them. If they had succeeded in Syria, Iran. Russia, Turkey will all be affected including the gulf countries and even north Africa.

olas24u:


That is only Europe, Estonia, Lithuania, Japan, South Korea, are just a distant away from Russia, and they have permanent bases with troops, cumulative figures are around that size. Encircled in North of Europe, East of Europe, south Asia. So Russia should be begging? It was discussing these issues for 8 years. From Moscow to kyviv with hypersonic missile is less than 5mins. A serious country will do something.

Please answer this question, why are these countries running towards America for protection instead of China and Russia? Is America forcing them to join NATO and other US military alliances?

I see this as Envy

skoskosko:

@God1000, your obvious bias and hypocrisy will not change the dynamics on ground and you know this. No matter how much you wish for Ukraine to emerge victorious, you know it won’t. This was an unbiased and apt article, but you still could not hide your obvious bias.

Firstly, you lied that western diplomats tried to diplomatically avert war by extending olive branches to Putin. How please? Minsk 2 was negotiated by Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia, zelensky effectively tore up the deal and both Germany and France did absolutely nothing to ensure zelensky implemented the deal, which even predates his presidency, but somehow you believe it is Putin’s fault that diplomacy failed. When zelensky banking on western support incase of military confrontation torn up a deal that actually guarantees peace. Zelensky refused diplomacy and tore up Minsk 2 because he erroneously believed there would be NATO boots on ground.

Secondly, you talked about sovereignty, I believe a more worthy example should be seen in how the US and Australia is currently threatening the Solomon Islands with military consequences because of a military pact with China. The US is several miles away and the islands in question are a sovereign nation.

Lastly, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania were incorporated into NATO at the moment of Russia’s weakness. It is imperative to stop further encircling now. Mind you geographically, the territories of the Baltic nations do not offer much advantage to NATO.

The question I want you to answer today is this; what is the reason for NATO’s continuous encircling of Russia? Do not tell me that it is a defensive alliance because in all its military confrontations, non was due to article 5, rather it was always the invading force. If you cannot holistically say why the US found it hard to tolerate Soviet missiles in Cuba, why the Solomons are currently been threatened, you must then be a hypocrite for wanting Russia to allow NATO share a direct massive land border with it.

what is pushing these countries into joining NATO? Is America forcing them?

God1000:
Please answer this question, why are these countries running towards America for protection instead of China and Russia? Is America forcing them to join NATO and other US military alliances?

I see this as Envy

Yes, they are being forced, because there was an agreement, not be expand to the east of Europe.

olas24u:


Yes, they are being forced, because there was an agreement, not be expand to the east of Europe.

how are they being forced? There's freedom of association

God1000:
the west will rebuild Ukraine when the war is over, Russia on the other hand will suffer immensely from economic sanctions for decades

Lol, the west won't rebuild anything.
Ukraine is a battleground between the West and East.

God1000:
how are they being forced?

How does your country Nigeria obey imf and world bank?

olas24u:


How does your country Nigeria obey imf and world bank?

this is casuistry

They are at liberty to say no

OBAGADAFFI:


Lol, the west won't rebuild anything.
Ukraine is a battleground between the West and East.

time will tell

God1000:
how are they being forced? There's freedom of association

Have you heard of Sanctions and Economic embargos?

Below: One of US trade manipulations in Europe.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210921-how-france-was-blindsided-by-the-australia-us-sub-deal