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What Protests Are Missing: Realpolitik Of The Israel-gaza Affair - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland

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What Protests Are Missing: Realpolitik Of The Israel-gaza Affair by ChonchaLib: 10:41pm On Mar 25
Beyond insults and religious zeal, why aren't most discussions about this issue about the politics of the principal players.

Gulf monarchies do not like the brotherhood, Hamas or any political Islam outfits. They were already on their way to normalization pre Oct 7.

Strategic aims around economic and military objectives make it a tough choice. But the verdict is mostly symbolic solidarity with Gaza and silence on the Israel assault. Nothing to offend the Jews or stifle lobbying efforts in DC. Below is a summary of the situation on a country-specific basis. Please chime in.

Israel: The cost from the Israel end will be the lives of IDF personnel and Netanyahu is ready to take the hit.

His political future depends on the extension of this campaign or the realization of strategic aims around annihilating top Hamas leadership. This is his project. Not necessarily an Israel one. He is finding strength only when harping on national safety. Nothing else.

On the Arab Muslim end he is okay. Even Turkiye is ready to see it thru.

Turkiye: did not recall their ambassador. Only after Israel's left Istanbul due to public pressure did the Turkish man over in Tel Aviv return. Erdogan cannot play into the hands of the UAE or KSA. Any commitments will be used against him in Washington. Like they're doing to Qatar.

UAE: hate political Islam. Use their prestige as a peninsula monarchy to dispense favors to maintain the status quo. Mbz ensured al Bashir left power and is supporting Hemedti to defeat the Islamist NCP-Army alliance. His men in Washington are pointing fingers at Qatar for harboring Hamas and being radical. Keeping Egypt in check with cash infusions and promises of future flows. Already on the way to normalization before Oct 7. Not interested in anything but full alliance with the West. And Israel is the key to this. He didn't even attend the Xi Jinping Saudi occasion to which he was invited.

KSA: similar to mbz, mbs is fixed on the West. Vision 2030 needs US investment and innovation. He doesn't care much about other issues. Mosques except those in holy cities have reduced volumes to one third of their usual volumes. Express order from him. He has been recorded to tell US officials that he needs two or three decades to remove Islam from public life. A true member of the MBC (tv channel) generation. Western leaning to the core. Israel is the key to Washington. Must avoid Iranian pincer from Tehran and Yemen. imams have told Saudis to pray for Gaza, but not to get involved. At Jamaa Rajhi in Riyadh, worshippers were told that they are like 'slugs' before their leaders. Don't fall for rabble rousers. The leader knows best. Even in the holy cities. Same message. Pray and leave it at that. Point is ; nothing will affect vision 2030. Period.

Jordan: road to Israel still open. Supplies are going thru. While Israel is obstructing Palestinian affairs. Recently, a protest headed to the Israeli embassy was stopped by Police. They were shocked. But the king doesn't want to offend the Gulf. They support his economy and also played some games with his army earlier, where they wanted his brother to come in. But that's water under the bridge now. He after all has done the most for Palestinians. They're almost a quarter of his population with full citizenship. And his father harbored them..regardless of the attempted overthrow and all that black September BS. He spoke tough earlier. A good man with values. But has fallen in line.


Qatar: sorta normalized since the 90s. In full contact with Israel while also maintaining similar links with Hamas. Negotiators & peacemakers extraordinaire. Taliban, Chadian rebels, sudanese etc do their talks in doha. Enjoying the attention. And are true Arabs. But have a limit. They couldn't help Bashir in the last days because of pressure from.mbs and mbz.


Egypt: big for nothing. For now..just received 35 billion usd injection from UAE to stave off economic crises. Massive fx and liquidity issues. Crashing like other mineral dependent economies with large populations (eg Nigeria), but have the benefit of generous and wealthy smaller brothers. So why not. Sisi will keep shut and act out for camera. Like he did when he lectured Blinken.

Iran: almost isolated if Oct 7 didn't happen. The true winners here. But for the meantime. Iran itself is a ticking bomb. The bonyads are grossly inefficient. And the thieving mullahs have run out of ideas..now it's oppression in full glare. No subtlety.
Arabs don't care.

Hamas is gonna end up isolated. Protests will not change anything. The vision of Gulf leaders is what matters. They don't seem willing to use their political points on this matter. A huge contrast with when Biden merely insulted Mbs earlier.

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