For all those thinking Nigeria's problems will magically disappear if we break-up, read this article:


Sudan declares war on South Sudan
After South Sudan seizes Heglig oil fields, which both countries claim, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir declares war. How can international community prevent a regional conflict?

By Scott Baldauf, Staff writer
posted April 19, 2012 at 11:46 am EDT

Less than a year after South Sudan gained its official independence, the new country is at war with its rival, Sudan.

Although relations between the two countries started out well, hostilities had been brewing almost from the very beginning, over how the two countries would share revenues from the sale of oil – most of which is now within South Sudan’s territory, and all of which must be transported through Sudan’s oil pipelines to foreign markets. The final spark, though, appears to have been over the borders between the two countries. South Sudan had long banked on receiving the Abyei region, including the oil fields nearby at Heglig. Last week, South Sudanese troops took Heglig by force, prompting Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir to proclaim a state of war.

While there is no formal declaration of war, Bashir told troops at a rally that they would be marching to Juba, South Sudan's capital.

"Heglig isn't the end, it is the beginning,” President Bashir was quoted by the Wall Street Journal as saying on a Thursday visit to South Kordofan state, where Sudan is facing a separatist rebellion by Nuba Mountain militants. “And we shall go all the way to Juba."

This is no mere fight between siblings over an inheritance.

South Sudan is resource rich and has assiduously cultivated friendships with its southern neighbors, Uganda and Kenya. South Sudan maintains close military and trade ties with Uganda’s leader, Yoweri Museveni, and it has also proposed to build a new oil pipeline to the sea at the Kenyan port of Lamu. South Sudan has also been rumored to support the Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). And Time magazine this week reported witnessing JEM fighters in Heglig alongside members of South Sudan’s own Sudanese People’s Liberation Army troops.

Sudan’s President Bashir, meanwhile, is increasingly isolated. He faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes and genocide during the Darfur insurgency. And he is struggling to pay the costs of a bloated government and security structure even as he loses 80 percent of the oil revenues he once had when South Sudan was just a region in his country.

It was once thought that Bashir would recognize the increasing weakness of his bargaining position, and that he would eventually come to the negotiating table, willing to compromise. But with his troops taking a drubbing in South Kordofan and Heglig, and with his own future in question as an accused war criminal, Bashir may have decided that war is his only option.

Bashir may also be hoping to win some sympathy from Islamists, from whom his National Congress Party has always drawn heavy support.

On Thursday, Bashir described the fight against South Sudan to be a “jihad” or holy struggle. It’s a word that may be intended to stiffen the backs of his own army, the vast majority of whom are Muslims, or it may be a call for help from Muslims worldwide. Many Muslims consider jihad to be a collective effort, where any Muslim country under threat must be defended by any faithful Muslim who is capable of fighting on its behalf.

More quietly, Sudan may also draw on support from some of its larger trade partners, including China. According to Africa Confidential, a respected journal, a trio of UN experts found evidence that Chinese ammunition has made its way to pro-Khartoum militias in the Darfur region. The trio’s report was rejected by the UN Secretary General’s office, but the experts simply sent the report on to the UN Security Council. If the evidence proves true, it could indicate a covert violation of UN weapons embargo against a state that is accused of launching an ethnic cleansing and genocide campaign against several tribes in the Darfur region.

China’s state-owned oil companies are part of a consortium that has exploration contracts along both sides of the Sudan-South Sudan border.

What we are witnessing now, therefore, could be the beginning of a wider conflict, one that draws in South Sudan’s friendly neighbors such as Uganda and Kenya on one hand, and that draws in Chinese military hardware, a disparate collection of Islamist volunteers for Sudan, along with all the remaining resources that Khartoum can muster.

All-out war is not inevitable. But if it truly starts, this is not likely to end well.

Nigeria case is different

If it results in the fall of the Sudanese regime, then its a blessing in disguise.

this is what happens when you apply a bandage over a gunshot wound.

Sudan will soon fall,the support with weaponry and militia that s/sudan has is great

Hmmm! I don't see Nigeria disintegrating. After so much ranting about SNC, two weeks back as reported by Vanguard, 92 Northern elders said they were ready for the conference. Till now, the earlier agitators for the conference have kept mute. They don't even want to talk about it again. Before then, SNC was all over the print media. In the electronic media, Channels TV was always in the fore-front of airing the urgent call for it. Sincerely, these few days, I have repeatedly asked myself about the sudden silence from our Southern elders. I didn't feel too good about the lack of guts to follow up the 92 Northern elders call for it. Are they scared after a long deep thought? On the other hand, I feel they are seeing what we are not seeing. Personally, I think it will be very difficult for Nigeria to break up. Every part of Nigeria is important if we think deep. If not for Boko Haram nonsense. One more thing. I think the Yorubas don't really support this whole idea of disintegration. I have stylishly sought after their opinions and all they kept telling was "me I no dey sure". "Who wan die". "If fight start nko". "If fight start, I go enter Togo or Benin Republic" etc. So you see? In the event that what is happening in Sudan now raises its ugly head after SNC, I see only the Igbos, South-South and the Middle Belt standing to put up a strong fight on the condition that the Middle Belt is carried along. Although, I as a person don't see Nigeria breaking up. The Multinationals like MTN, DSTV etc wouldn't want this to happen either. If you know what I mean.

Jeel: Sudan will soon fall,the support with weaponry and militia that s/sudan has is great

A Ugandan Military Commander openly declared their support for South Sudan if they ever get to war . . .

south Sudan will eventually succeed at last with all the support they are receiving they will come out victorious no doubt.....

jmaine:

A Ugandan Military Commander openly declared their support for South Sudan if they ever get to war . . .

Not just Uganda, I hope Nigeria will join with South Sudan to teach those barbaric and islamic radical Sudanese a good lesson.

^^ Ha! Finally, I had to wait for you to be explicit with your covert and overt tribalistic and bigoted position which you have only struggled to bite your tongues on recently! Above you is the son of evil, tribalist demon AK47mann. He knows me and if he so much as talks BS, I will personally call call thunder to strike his non-existing balls!

So, is it easier to go to war or ask that your foolishe beneficiary of tribalist vote does the right thing by seeking to constitute a SNC? Or, get this country to regionalism, true federalism, etc if he cannot tackle corruption and insecurity? Or, will Nigerians grow a pair and show up in millions to drive him out of office? You choose. While a breakup has its benefits, it also has many negatives but NOTE that if Nigeria breaks-up, part of the condition is everyone must immediately live to his fatherland and not hope to leech on the resources of another part of the country.

First, both sides particularly d south has soft pedaled.

Secondly, d south has more to lose if there's full scale war because its institutions/infrastructures r young and barely existing.

Third, it will b a long brutal war between Arab world supported north against mostly western world supported south. Nobody is sure of what will b d outcome because it will drag in willing groups like al shabaab, supporter of APC, Tauregs and other militant/mercenary groups. What u will hav a end is unconventional war of large magnitude of such that Somalia would b a child play. Remember dt oil is involved.

CyberG: ^^ Ha! Finally, I had to wait for you to be explicit with your covert and overt tribalistic and bigoted position which you have only struggled to bite your tongues on recently! Above you is the son of evil, tribalist demon AK47mann. He knows me and if he so much as talks BS, I will personally call call thunder to strike his non-existing balls!

So, is it easier to go to war or ask that your foolishe beneficiary of tribalist vote does the right thing by seeking to constitute a SNC? Or, get this country to regionalism, true federalism, etc if he cannot tackle corruption and insecurity? Or, will Nigerians grow a pair and show up in millions to drive him out of office? You choose. While a breakup has its benefits, it also has many negatives but NOTE that if Nigeria breaks-up, part of the condition is everyone must immediately live to his fatherland and not hope to leech on the resources of another part of the country.

you sound like a down syndrome baby when the time comes we will know who needed who,i promise you anambra will be the richest town in Africa/igbo-land