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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting (3130 Views)
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Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by MagicBishop: 1:01am On Jan 29, 2016 |
The dullard is in for a long thing |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by Scholes007(m): 1:02am On Jan 29, 2016 |
jpphilips:thats a very valid point but wooing russia into opec especially now is not feasible. Why? Because western countries may view it as a threat and that wouldn't be a good thing. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by MagicBishop: 1:03am On Jan 29, 2016 |
jpphilips: And why will Russia join OPEC? Mexico is signatory to NAFTA ( North American Free Trade Agreement) . That alone bars them and Canada from joining the cartel. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by MagicBishop: 1:06am On Jan 29, 2016 |
Scholes007: Even if the Russians want in on OPEC ( which they don't want to) do you think Saudi Arabia will be comfortable to relinquish their high status to Russia? Never gonna happen. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by TimeManager(m): 1:06am On Jan 29, 2016 |
Buffoons would call this propaganda. Before you start wailing, just to let you know that this is an era of oil war. No lie only truth! |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by Scholes007(m): 1:11am On Jan 29, 2016 |
MagicBishop:that why i said it wouldn't be good on opec. It will likely expose opec to serious vulnerablity on the longrun. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by MagicBishop: 1:12am On Jan 29, 2016 |
Scholes007: I don't understand you. Pls elaborate |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by Scholes007(m): 1:20am On Jan 29, 2016 |
MagicBishop:sorry for the typo, i am using auto spell. russia as we all know has been in cold war with the west, and oil & gas supply have been their major leverage against the west. Joining opec will mean expanding this leverage to west. Considering the west influence on some member states like saudi arabia, there will be a great fault line within the opec that will not be of any desirable effect especially now. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by MagicBishop: 1:36am On Jan 29, 2016 |
Scholes007: The US wants in on the game and that's why they just lifted an embargo on US crude exports. If there is one thing US shale producers and Russian gas energy want; it is an increase in crude pricing. The only way to get that is to get a unanimous decision by OPEC ( which means getting Saudis to agree) to cut oil production. As I said earlier, the Saudis out of deep sectarian inspired blind hatred towards Iran will never concede to any cuts as this will see Iran benefit from increasing Crude pricing from where their economy improves rapidly. The only way to do this is to instigate a major conflict in Saudi Arabia (civil war, coup, or whatever armed crisis) that will significantly cut Saudi oil output. In the long run it will be of benefits to both the Russians and the US for a major prolonged war to happen in the middle east involving both these countries either directly or via their proxies in Yemen, Syria and or Iraq. The Russians and US will also profit by supplying arms to both sides (making more money) and will only step in diplomatically and militarily if either is getting an upper hand in other to prolong the conflict. This is Putin's plan in Syria. If he wanted he could wipe out ISIS in a month but he is holding back using the full fury of Russian military arsenal and applying that which is just enough to stabilise his ally Assad and keep ISIS at bay so he can maintain Russian military presence in the ME. I just hope the World powers don't have similar plans of war in Niger Delta as well. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by jpphilips(m): 3:43am On Feb 01, 2016 |
MagicBishop: It is in Russia's interest to join OPEC efforts have been made to lure them in the past, lets say times have changed now. With sanctions hanging on their neck and lower prices, OPEC could be a reasonable window. Yea! I forgot NAFTA, would be s!lly of mexico to join, it has more to gain trading with the US than the bloody OPEC. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by jpphilips(m): 4:19am On Feb 01, 2016 |
Scholes007: Russia lost that Oil leverage a long time, you just didnt notice, rank Saudi, US and Russia by oil production and you will be amazed what you will find. Saudi is very influential not solely for their production but also they have OPEC, no doubt there will be internal ramblings between the Saudis and Russia in OPEC I guess that is why it has been difficult so far t bring them in. If I were Russia, I will join, Stabilize oil price, then pull out when the tide turns. |
Re: Oil Price Fall Below $30 Per Barrel Nigeria Summons Emergency OPEC Meeting by jpphilips(m): 4:49am On Feb 01, 2016 |
MagicBishop: Your post in bold may not be the reason Saudi is against production cut, though their official reason (market share) is baseless. It makes no sense to hurt yourself just to spite another, Saudi is hurt by the present crisis, they have shrunk their budget for 2016 and reasonably cut down on subsidies, remember that what subsidy means to an average Nigerian is the reverse for the Saudi's. Their citizens virtually live off subsidies that is the sole reason the Kingdom has been stable for a long time, that might change if crude prices remain low, do you sincerely think Saudi will risk an implosion, revolution or civil war just to spite Iran? Hell no!! Trace it back to the 70's when a similar thing happened and the Saudi strategy at the time, the Saudi's want the oil prices to remain low for now, not because of Iran but US, if you listen to Bohemier and Trump lately you will realize that America conceded a lot to bring Iran on board with the nuclear deal, so the right questions are, why Iran? why now? and what is Saudi doing that is hurting America to make such a sacrifice? Iran is the 7th world producer and number 2 in OPEC (same organization Saudi belong to), Iran operate in the same area as Saudi which puts pressure on Saudi's market share, cost of production in Iran and Saudi are almost apar so no relative production edge unlike the US. What is Saudi doing? Saudi is pumping excess crude in the market to keep the prices very low and unprofitable for the US shale producers who have proved since last year that they are a formidable competitor in the oil industry, within three years, they have swelled the US production to a whooping 13mbopd past Saudi's 11mbopd. Shale extraction is very expensive as such, it takes an average of a little above $55/bbl for the US shale fields to be profitable, with low oil prices, it is just a matter of time before the Shale investors will pack up, once that happens, US production will drop significantly and Saudi will reclaim its market lead. Obama's counter strategy is simple, bring Iran on board, Iran is one of the hardest hit countries in this current crisis, it is natural to expect Iran to coerce Saudi to cut production through OPEC, once it happens, prices, go up, US shale fields will become profitable again. This does not make Iran an ally of the US in anyway, Iran is just a "tool of convenience" for the US in a time like this. |
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