Mostfavoured010:
If you're in Osun, you'll understand how the election result will be, people aren't voting for party, they are voting for personality, PDP loose in Osun last GOv election because of the strongholds that decamp to APC what happened during the second term election of Bisi Akande would have repeat itself , take a look at the breakdown, some strongholds in OSun APC decamped to ADP, some are serving state Hon and former commissioners in APC and Former Gov Oyinlola, the fact that APC flag bearer will follow the step of Aregbe in managing the state and will make people not to Vote for APC especially the state Govt, Workers & students of tertiary institutions, election isn't predicted by crowds that attend the campaign or social Media polls, Osun West is a base of APC ,in the previous Bypass election ,despite the power of incumbency and federal power, APC lost woefully to the, If APC had given Adeleke the ticket, he will won. Omisore should have settled for senate ticket cus its sure he will win but not in Governorship poll, APC ,PDP and SDP has the money to but votes but will will vote massively for Sen Adeleke, not because people like PDP but because of the love people have for the late Sen Adeleke and besides PDP is still a strong party in the state.
breakdown of the election result as follows:

Iwo Local Government: APC-12,205 PDP-12,547

Olaoluwa Local Government: APC 5,316 PDP 5,618

Ayedire Local Government: APC 5,360 PDP 5,789
Ejigbo Local Government: APC 12,229 PDP 9,723

Irewole Local Government: APC 8,952 PDP 9,096

Ede North Local Government: APC 2,784 PDP 18,559

Ede South Local Government: APC 2,096 PDP 13,406

Ayedaade Local Government: APC 7179 PDP 9,061

Egbedore Local Government: APC 4,768 PDP 7,142

Isokan Local Government: APC 5227 PDP 6,539

Well said but one thing you don't know is that PDP were united when Adeleke won Osun west Bye election. There was nothing like SDP then. Omisore have pulled out of PDP together with his loyalists across the state. Take note.


Even with that, PDP won Osun West bye election with a margin less than 35,000 total votes despite winning 9 local governments against 1 that APC won. A margin the whole of Ilesa region where Aregbesola comes from can easily swallow on Saturday .


Another thing is that, it was a sympathy vote they casted for Ademola Adeleke then because of the death of his brother. If he had contested under APC then, he would have won as well.



We have three governorship aspirant from Osun west alone and they are going to share the votes unlike the two way votes they casted during the Bye election. Infact, Results from Osun west will be the most scattered votes. Akinbade, Adeoti and Gboyega Alabi will scatter the region's votes for him yet he would win with slight margin but would suffer massive defeat from the other two senatorial districts

Neyoor:




Well said but one thing you don't know is that PDP were united when Adeleke won Osun west Bye election. There was nothing like SDP then. Omisore have pulled out of PDP together with his loyalists across the state. Take note.


Even with that, PDP won Osun West bye election with a margin less than 35,000 total votes despite winning 9 local governments against 1 that APC won. A margin the whole of Ilesa region where Aregbesola comes from can easily swallow on Saturday .


Another thing is that, it was a sympathy vote they casted for Ademola Adeleke then because of the death of his brother. If he had contested under APC then, he would have won as well.



� three governorship aspirant from Osun west alone and there are going to share the votes unlike the two way votes they casted during the Bye election.

You fully understand Osun politics with your objective analysis. Osun Central and Osiun East will vote APC while Osun west will be divided by the opposition parties with APC having some considerable votes there too. In my opinion the coast is clear for APC victory

Neyoor:




Well said but one thing you don't know is that PDP were united when Adeleke won Osun west Bye election. There was nothing like SDP then. Omisore have pulled out of PDP together with his loyalists across the state. Take note.


Even with that, PDP won Osun West bye election with a margin less than 35,000 total votes despite winning 9 local governments against 1 that APC won. A margin the whole of Ilesa region where Aregbesola comes from can easily swallow on Saturday .


Another thing is that, it was a sympathy vote they casted for Ademola Adeleke then because of the death of his brother. If he had contested under APC then, he would have won as well.



We have three governorship aspirant from Osun west alone and they are going to share the votes unlike the two way votes they casted during the Bye election. Infact, Results from Osun west will be the most scattered votes. Akinbade, Adeoti and Gboyega Alabi will scatter the region's votes for him yet he would win with slight margin but would suffer massive defeat from the other two senatorial districts

Good conclusion and permutation

senatordave1:

If care is not taken,omisore will overtake pdp and finish 2nd.this election will be like the 2015 polls in adamawa where pdp took third or the 2015 polls in oyo where pdp finished fourth

I doubt if omisore will take over pdp

Ordinarily I don't want APC to win because of the way Aregbe has treated the workers. But with the look of things APC might clinch it. This is due to these reasons:
1) Osun west which is supposed to provide the opposition q large chunk of votes three strong candidates, hence the votes will be shared among them, while APC is sure of winning Ejigbo LG out of the 10LGs
2) The civil servants that are supposed to give a block vote to the opposition will unfortunately not be able to do so . The votes will majorly divided between SDP, and PDP. Remember workers gave a block vote to PDP in 2014 yet they lost. So with divided votes it will be a big boost for APC
Based on the above coupled with the fact that APC is likely to have between 6 and 7 LGs in Osun central, at least 4 in Ife /Ijesa(Osun east) and Ejigbo is sure in Osun West APC will likely clinch it depending on the margin of victory in the LGs won.

Neyoor:




Well said but one thing you don't know is that PDP were united when Adeleke won Osun west Bye election. There was nothing like SDP then. Omisore have pulled out of PDP together with his loyalists across the state. Take note.


Even with that, PDP won Osun West bye election with a margin less than 35,000 total votes despite winning 9 local governments against 1 that APC won. A margin the whole of Ilesa region where Aregbesola comes from can easily swallow on Saturday .


Another thing is that, it was a sympathy vote they casted for Ademola Adeleke then because of the death of his brother. If he had contested under APC then, he would have won as well.



We have three governorship aspirant from Osun west alone and they are going to share the votes unlike the two way votes they casted during the Bye election. Infact, Results from Osun west will be the most scattered votes. Akinbade, Adeoti and Gboyega Alabi will scatter the region's votes for him yet he would win with slight margin but would suffer massive defeat from the other two senatorial districts

Akinbade is out of the race, he doesn't have charisma and doesn't pull crowd, Adeoti of ADP may only have high votes in his home town Iwo but that doesn't mean he won't loose in his polling unit, unconfirmed reports has it that Omisore of SDP as consult Adeoti of ADP to step down in supporting him, if that happened, SDP will have more chances of winning, till now, some voters haven't know who to Vote between SDP & PDP but at the polling unit people are likely to vote massively for PDP, the fact that Aregbe is paying 4 months salary to workers is enough to pissed off people of the state, why is he just paying in a week to election ,he did same thing in 2014 , once beaten is twice shy, people won't fall for that same scam this time.

Neyoor:




This your opinion looks sarcastic. Osogbo is having two local governments and the results from there alone can convincely outnumbered that of 4 L. Gs in OsunWest. Osogbo witnessed unprecedented development it has never witnessed in the history of Osun state and the people there will reciprocate that gesture by voting for APC.


Apart from that, Osogbo and EDE people have been enemies from time immemorial. They've never been on thesame lane. Late Adeleke also had problem there when he won Osun election in 1991. It is the believe of Osogbo people that Ede people will claim there land if they should allow them to get to power.


Don't forget Oyetola is from Central, Boripe local government which he will win convincingly. How about Ikirun where their king led the APC rally and used thug to disrupt PDP rally there last week. If worse come to worst, APC will still convincingly win 7 out of 10 L. G in the central

Apc will not win osogbo convincingly, times has changed, Pdp,sdp,apc and adc will all see votes, apc will win slightly...i largely agree with the rest of your point.

youseuph:
Ordinarily I don't want APC to win because of the way Aregbe has treated the workers. But with the look of things APC might clinch it. This is due to these reasons:
1) Osun west which is supposed to provide the opposition q large chunk of votes three strong candidates, hence the votes will be shared among them, while APC is sure of winning Ejigbo LG out of the 10LGs
2) The civil servants that are supposed to give a block vote to the opposition will unfortunately not be able to do so . The votes will majorly divided between SDP, and PDP. Remember workers gave a block vote to PDP in 2014 yet they lost. So with divided votes it will be a big boost for APC
Based on the above coupled with the fact that APC is likely to have between 6 and 7 LGs in Osun central, at least 4 in Ife /Ijesa(Osun east) and Ejigbo is sure in Osun West APC will likely clinch it depending on the margin of victory in the LGs won.

yea,central is key.. opposition must squeeze out as much as they can there..east is settled as far as I am concerned, apc to win 5 and sdp 5
west..apc will probably win ejigbo.. I'm not sure who will win there BTW adeleke and adeoti

Neyoor:




Well said but one thing you don't know is that PDP were united when Adeleke won Osun west Bye election. There was nothing like SDP then. Omisore have pulled out of PDP together with his loyalists across the state. Take note.


Even with that, PDP won Osun West bye election with a margin less than 35,000 total votes despite winning 9 local governments against 1 that APC won. A margin the whole of Ilesa region where Aregbesola comes from can easily swallow on Saturday .


Another thing is that, it was a sympathy vote they casted for Ademola Adeleke then because of the death of his brother. If he had contested under APC then, he would have won as well.



We have three governorship aspirant from Osun west alone and they are going to share the votes unlike the two way votes they casted during the Bye election. Infact, Results from Osun west will be the most scattered votes. Akinbade, Adeoti and Gboyega Alabi will scatter the region's votes for him yet he would win with slight margin but would suffer massive defeat from the other two senatorial districts

, winning is winning, even if a candidate emerge with 1 vote

Am from ilesha, no one will vote PDP here, APC has distributed money, even people that are angry are ready to vote APC, PDP candidate image has been spoilt through the media, his nickname is ajobiewe.

ejimatic:
You are right both of them are bigwigs there.... Good permutation

both of them are from ejigbo and not egbedore

see permutations, the election will be rigged

oluwole1211:
both of them are from ejigbo and not egbedore

good observation

youseuph:
Ordinarily I don't want APC to win because of the way Aregbe has treated the workers. But with the look of things APC might clinch it. This is due to these reasons:
1) Osun west which is supposed to provide the opposition q large chunk of votes three strong candidates, hence the votes will be shared among them, while APC is sure of winning Ejigbo LG out of the 10LGs
2) The civil servants that are supposed to give a block vote to the opposition will unfortunately not be able to do so . The votes will majorly divided between SDP, and PDP. Remember workers gave a block vote to PDP in 2014 yet they lost. So with divided votes it will be a big boost for APC
Based on the above coupled with the fact that APC is likely to have between 6 and 7 LGs in Osun central, at least 4 in Ife /Ijesa(Osun east) and Ejigbo is sure in Osun West APC will likely clinch it depending on the margin of victory in the LGs won.

thorough analysis and insightful one.

ijeshaboy:
Am from ilesha, no one will vote PDP here, APC has distributed money, even people that are angry are ready to vote APC, PDP candidate image has been spoilt through the media, his nickname is ajobiewe.

I agree with you... ijesa people can die for Aregbesola. All the six local governments there will vote massively for him

Neyoor:




Well said but one thing you don't know is that PDP were united when Adeleke won Osun west Bye election. There was nothing like SDP then. Omisore have pulled out of PDP together with his loyalists across the state. Take note.


Even with that, PDP won Osun West bye election with a margin less than 35,000 total votes despite winning 9 local governments against 1 that APC won. A margin the whole of Ilesa region where Aregbesola comes from can easily swallow on Saturday .


Another thing is that, it was a sympathy vote they casted for Ademola Adeleke then because of the death of his brother. If he had contested under APC then, he would have won as well.



We have three governorship aspirant from Osun west alone and they are going to share the votes unlike the two way votes they casted during the Bye election. Infact, Results from Osun west will be the most scattered votes. Akinbade, Adeoti and Gboyega Alabi will scatter the region's votes for him yet he would win with slight margin but would suffer massive defeat from the other two senatorial districts

This is a well articulated position. Well done.

Who has the upper hand in Ikire?

ejimatic:
APC will win Ilesa West Ilesa East Atakumosa West Atakumosa East Oriade and Obokun... APC will win Ayedadade Ejigbo And Irewole and six or seven Local governments in Osun Central..................PDP will win Ede North and South with Egbedore..... ADP will win Iwo local govt..... ADC may win Odo Otin slightly..... SDP will win Ife East South and Central.... Ife North is either APC or SDP..... Any party with 15 local government wins will present the governor. Your guess is as good as mine... However I'm almost sure is APC

It will be tough and keenly contested election in the history of Osun State, but APC will emerge victorious.

vacettetommy:

If you ever stay/reside at any major town in Osun central you won’t be boast of APC winning 5 LGA’s not to talk of 9. Without rigging and vote buying I swear APC is a goner in Osun State. People are suffering and they can’t just wait to vote APC out

This is the same thing you guys keep saying and the Apc keeps winning.

[quote author=Mostfavoured010 post=71334444]If you're in Osun, you'll understand how the election result will be, people aren't voting for party, they are voting for personality, PDP loose in Osun last GOv election because of the strongholds that decamp to APC what happened during the second term election of Bisi Akande would have repeat itself , take a look at the breakdown, some strongholds in OSun APC decamped to ADP, some are serving state Hon and former commissioners in APC and Former Gov Oyinlola decamped to ADC, the fact that APC flag bearer will follow the step of Aregbe in managing the state and will make people not to Vote for APC especially the state Govt Workers & students of tertiary institutions, election isn't predicted by crowds that attend the campaign or social Media polls, Osun West is a ba

Oga this is not a senatorial election.you mean the other two senatorial district will not participate?

PassingShot:
Who has the upper hand in Ikire?

That's my hometown. It's likely to be going PDP but it would be very tight. APC Deputy Governorship candidate is from there. Adeleke won in Ikire last year with a margin less than 200 votes. It's likely to be thesame on Saturday.

[quote author=famology post=71339259][/quote] ,give your permutation and let's see how you think PDP & SDP will loose In the remaining 2 senatorial district

Neyoor:



That's my hometown. It's likely to be going PDP but it would be very tight. APC Deputy Governorship candidate is from there. Adeleke won in Ikire last year with a margin less than 200 votes. It's likely to be thesame on Saturday.

Thanks. We wait and see

PassingShot:
Who has the upper hand in Ikire?

I guess APC

ijeshaboy:
Am from ilesha, no one will vote PDP here, APC has distributed money, even people that are angry are ready to vote APC, PDP candidate image has been spoilt through the media, his nickname is ajobiewe.

.
Don't rejoice yet, voters will collect money from those 3 main candidate, its not the matter of highest bidder this time,Same way fayose failed workers and lost election, same thing will happen In this upcoming Gov election in Osun, they don't want to suffer for another 4 years of modulated salary

Neyoor:




This your opinion looks sarcastic. Osogbo is having two local governments and the results from there alone can convincely outnumbered that of 4 L. Gs in OsunWest. Osogbo witnessed unprecedented development it has never witnessed in the history of Osun state and the people there will reciprocate that gesture by voting for APC.


Apart from that, Osogbo and EDE people have been enemies from time immemorial. They've never been on thesame lane. Late Adeleke also had problem there when he won Osun election in 1991. It is the believe of Osogbo people that Ede people will claim there land if they should allow them to get to power.


Don't forget Oyetola is from Central, Boripe local government which he will win convincingly. How about Ikirun where their king led the APC rally and used thug to disrupt PDP rally there last week. If worse come to worst, APC will still convincingly win 7 out of 10 L. G in the central

Wa ni Alubarika, ose omoluabi atata.
I could remember, the problem still came up when Baba Akande was building that new Secretariat then.

vacettetommy:

If you ever stay/reside at any major town in Osun central you won’t be boast of APC winning 5 LGA’s not to talk of 9. Without rigging and vote buying I swear APC is a goner in Osun State. People are suffering and they can’t just wait to vote APC out

If you really reside in Osun, believe me, PDP may try have up to 5 LGA, PDP can never win. APC will win with moderate margin. The incumbent governor has really tried on infrastructural development, which has accorded him international recognition. Nobody will do it all. He has used wisdom in handling the affair of Osun state. When you compare monthly IGR and what he has been able to do so far, the only thing any government will do is to borrow money like he did for basic infrastructural development, and not for salaries. Even a whole country (all over the world) borrow money for building key infrastructure, even america does atimes. It is not a crime to borrow, but Aregbesola used his brain well by making sure the loan is with very low interest rate and payment plan that will not affect the state has been made. Everybody can see what he has spent money on, which is commendable. He has been paying workers up to level 7, it was only the higher levels, he finds difficult to pay before clearing them recently. There are many other states who are still owing their workers without any or many infrastructural development to bost of like that of osun. Let's use our brains instead of being sentimental.

Mostfavoured010:
,give your permutation and let's see how you think PDP & SDP will loose In the remaining 2 senatorial district

In Osun East Apc will win Six local governments in ilesa.... SDP will win Ife East South and Central but North will be shared by APC and sdp.....on OSun Central. Apc will win osogbo and Olorunda and six other councils... Odo otin may not go for ADC.... in my opinion the coast is clear for Apc

datproject:

If you really reside in Osun, believe me, PDP may try have up to 5 LGA, PDP can never win. APC will win with moderate margin. The incumbent governor has really tried on infrastructural development, which has accorded him international recognition. Nobody will do it all. He has used wisdom in handling the affair of Osun state. When you compare monthly IGR and what he has been able to do so far, the only thing any government will do is to borrow money like he did for basic infrastructural development, and not for salaries. Even a whole country (all over the world) borrow money for building key infrastructure, even america does atimes. It is not a crime to borrow, but Aregbesola used his brain well by making sure the loan is with very low interest rate and payment plan that will not affect the state has been made. Everybody can see what he has spent money on, which is commendable. He has been paying workers up to level 7, it was only the higher levels, he finds difficult to pay before clearing them recently. There are many other states who are still owing their workers without any or many infrastructural development to bost of like that of osun. Let's use our brains instead of being sentimental.

you possess words of wisdom... I agree with you.

Mostfavoured010:
If you're in Osun, you'll understand how the election result will be, people aren't voting for party, they are voting for personality, PDP loose in Osun last GOv election because of the strongholds that decamp to APC what happened during the second term election of Bisi Akande would have repeat itself , take a look at the breakdown, some strongholds in OSun APC decamped to ADP, some are serving state Hon and former commissioners in APC and Former Gov Oyinlola decamped to ADC, the fact that APC flag bearer will follow the step of Aregbe in managing the state and will make people not to Vote for APC especially the state Govt Workers & students of tertiary institutions, election isn't predicted by crowds that attend the campaign or social Media polls, Osun West is a base of APC ,in the previous Bypass election ,despite the power of incumbency and federal power, APC lost woefully,If APC had given Adeleke the ticket, he will won. Omisore should have settled for 2019 senate ticket either in SDP or PDP cus its sure he will win but not in Governorship poll, APC ,PDP and SDP has the money to buy votes so money isn't the problem, but people will vote massively for Sen Adeleke, not because people like PDP but because of the love people have for the late Sen Adeleke ,people doesn't want the continuity of Aregbeslola's policies and besides PDP is still a strong party in the state.

breakdown of the past Osun west bypass election result as follows:

Iwo Local Government: APC-12,205 PDP-12,547

Olaoluwa Local Government: APC 5,316 PDP 5,618

Ayedire Local Government: APC 5,360 PDP 5,789
Ejigbo Local Government: APC 12,229 PDP 9,723

Irewole Local Government: APC 8,952 PDP 9,096

Ede North Local Government: APC 2,784 PDP 18,559

Ede South Local Government: APC 2,096 PDP 13,406

Ayedaade Local Government: APC 7179 PDP 9,061

Egbedore Local Government: APC 4,768 PDP 7,142

Isokan Local Government: APC 5227 PDP 6,539

don't forget that the region is now divided. If APC could have this result then, forget they're likely to clear four lgs now in the west

All those forming analysis here and giving it to PDP, I hope you won't shout rigging when you start seeing results?