Former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon (rtd), has called for the adoption of electoral college system in the conduct of the 2015 presidential election in the country.

Gowon, whose administration was the first to balkanise Nigeria into 12 states, also urged the National Assembly to stop the agitation by various interest groups for the creation of new states, saying additional states will not solve the problems facing the country.

Speaking at a two-day conference on "The North and Strategies for Sustainable Development" held in Kaduna yesterday, Gowon, who was represented by the Chairman of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Alhaji Aliko Mohammed, said he met with the northern caucus of the Senate last week and asked them to reconsider the introduction of the electoral college in the presidential election.

He also called on northerners to unite and forge a common front in order to ensure the progress and development of the region.

According to him, "Unless we come together in the North, we would continue to have problems. I met with the Senate caucus in the North in Abuja last week and I asked them to reconsider the introduction of electoral college in electing the president."

He added that the creation of more states in the country would not resolved the myriads of problems facing the country but increase the cost of governance.

Also speaking at the occasion, the Governor of Kaduna State, Mr. Patrick Yakowa, said the North had always remained a catalyst for the unity of the country, maintaining that in spite of the current security challenges, the region will continue to remain a rallying point for the unity and development of the nation.

According to him, "History has shown that the unity and strength of the North, with a collective sense of purpose and focus has been the bastion for the unity and strength of Nigeria. We must do everything to sustain this responsibility bestowed on us by providence."

He noted that in this difficult times, the region must work assiduously to adequately address the problems of intolerance among the tribes if the region must succeed collectively.

He noted that Nigeria, as a multicultural and multilingual nation, with more than 250 distinct languages and ethnic groups, cannot continue to behave as a group of irreconcilable religious and ethnic nationalities, contrary to the 'One North, One People' philosophy "bequeathed to us by no other than the late Sardauna, Ahmadu Bello.

"We should stop encouraging religious and ethnic intolerance. We should, on the contrary, work hard to transform the mindset of the average Nigerian and guide it to positive channels. Nigeria must be great again. She must start tapping its diverse human and natural resources to the fullest which God has endowed the country with and which we are not adequately taking full advantage of" the governor added.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201212060589.html

This will still be same thing but will concentrate voting power in places with high population.

Lagos, Oyo, Kaduna... Now, no place in SS/SE can have such voting power which will mean we are back to marginalization. Unless you are willing to give Enugu and Edo state the same voting power given to Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Oyo which I doubt is right.

So electoral college isn't our option just yet!

You want every Nigerian to go to the polls knowing their vote matters right?

If we have electoral college system, the entire SS/SE won't have more than Lagos and Oyo or Kaduna and Kano. That will be too much marginalization.

Americans are trying to return to majority vote and this stone headed rogue want us to return to a system that breeds marginalization in a tribal nation like Nigeria? Abeg make this man no dey go watch America come de prescribe nonsense for us here in 9ja ooo!!

In the United States, electoral college votes are allocated based on the number of senators and representatives a state has in the Federal Congress. If we adopted that same rule below is the number of electoral college votes each state will receive. We will have a total of 469 electoral college votes and 235 will be needed to win a Presidential Election.

Below is a scenario that I put together as a guide. There are obviously caveats since every election cycle has its own unique dynamics.

danjohn: I actually think that the electoral college system will not be good for the North. Below is a scenario that I put together as a guide. There are obviously caveates. For example, a candidate like Tinubu will most likely lose the Southeast and a Christian from the Northcentral will do well in the Northcentral and win some southern states. Notwithstanding, below is my two cents.

Lmao!! You give Oyo 13 and give Akwa Ibom 11? lmao! That is a very lopsided and bias analysis.

The North will still sweep it in electoral college.

Does Oyo and Akwa Ibom house the same number of Nigerians? lmao!! Lagos is 10$ of Nigerian population!! That is like umm 50 !!!!!!

Again, don't bring north vs south mentality into this!! It won't work on me!!!

I'm all for fairness for everyone. You see I pointed out that Electoral college won't be good for SS or SE.

Let's be fair bro!!

Summary Version

Trust me bro, should the should the nation adopt electoral college system, SS/SE will be censored to silence in Nigeria!!

0lumide: This will still be same thing but will concentrate voting power in places with high population.

Lagos, Oyo, Kaduna... Now, no place in SS/SE can have such voting power which will mean we are back to marginalization. Unless you are willing to give Enugu and Edo state the same voting power given to Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Oyo which I doubt is right.

So electoral college isn't our option just yet!

You want every Nigerian to go to the polls knowing their vote matters right?

If we have electoral college system, the entire SS/SE won't have more than Lagos and Oyo or Kaduna and Kano. That will be too much marginalization.

Americans are trying to return to majority vote and this stone headed rogue want us to return to a system that breeds marginalization in a tribal nation like Nigeria? Abeg make this man no dey go watch America come de prescribe nonsense for us here in 9ja ooo!!

In the United States, the number of electoral college votes received by a state is based on the number of representatives in both the senate and the house of representatives. If Nigeria adopts the electoral college system, we will most likely allocate electoral college votes using this same methodology. I did not pull these numbers out of my behind.

danjohn:

In the United States, the number of electoral college votes received by a state is based on the number of representatives in both the senate and the house of representatives. If Nigeria adopts the electoral college system, we will most likely allocate electoral college votes using this same methodology. I did not pull these numbers out of my behind.

And the reps are based on counties abi? How many counties do you think SS will get? how many do you think SE will get? How many do you think North will get? How many do you think SW will get?

Counties are created based on Population right? In a fair democracy, North will beat SS/SE put together... It will not work!!!!

I dont think electoral college will be accepted in Nigeria. Nigeria is fictionalized along ethnic and religious line. Electoral college is simply an instrument of power grab by those with fictitiously large population figure.

It is dead on arrival!

0lumide:

And the reps are based on counties abi? How many counties do you think SS will get? how many do you think SE will get? How many do you think North will get? How many do you think SW will get?

Counties are created based on Population right? In a fair democracy, North will beat SS/SE put together... It will not work!!!!

Reps in the national assembly is based on population not county.

0lumide:

And the reps are based on counties abi? How many counties do you think SS will get? how many do you think SE will get? How many do you think North will get? How many do you think SW will get?

Counties are created based on Population right? In a fair democracy, North will beat SS/SE put together... It will not work!!!!

Also please note that the North is not a monolithic region. There is diversity. There are 19 states in the North (20 if you include Abuja) and Buhari won only 12 of them. 8 voted for Jonathan: Taraba, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Plataeu and Abuja. There are swing states in the North that can vote for a southerner or a northerner depending on the election.

The issue I have with the electoral college is that it can make candidates to abandon states. When a candidate has to win the popular vote, they campaign everywhere because they need all the votes they can find. However, with the electoral college system, most candidates will focus their time and effort on the states I mentioned above plus Kaduna because they can swing either way. Nonetheless, there are always caveats and every election has its own unique dynamics.

@danjohn, u did an amazingly good job. U got ur predictions right in about every state. I sort of feel Lagos is also a swing state though.

danjohn:

Reps in the national assembly is based on population not county.

So do you think ss/se will have more reps than North put together? no unless SW is counted in south which brings us back to the case of US VS THEM!

danjohn:

Also please note that the North is not a monolithic region. There is diversity. There are 19 states in the North (20 if you include Abuja) and Buhari won only 12 of them. 8 voted for Jonathan: Taraba, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Plataeu and Abuja. There are swing states in the North that can vote for a southerner or a northerner depending on the election.

The issue I have with the electoral college is that it can make candidates to abandon states. When a candidate has to win the popular vote, they campaign everywhere because they need all the votes they can find. However, with the electoral college system, most candidates will focus their time and effort on the states I mentioned above plus Kaduna because they can swing either way. Nonetheless, there are always caveats and every election has its own unique dynamics.

Neither is South a monolithic region bra! This proposal is dead on arrival! The North will always have their way in a fair democracy simple as ABC!

What we should be canvassing for is this, Having Nigeria return to regionalism, And Kogi, Kwara returned to West, as a Yoruba region, All Hausa land become Hausa region, each distinct tribe have their own region and 1 representative in the federal council each for each tribal region! Have the regions control every thing in their regions, and the reps they have in the federal council will be there. No president, no prime ministers. Federal decisions are made by the consensus of the council reps.

Each region pay their reps in Abuja, no senate! Each regions is it's own administrator. No decision from Abuja is forced down on regions! This is the only solution to Nigeria's unity!

With a system like the Above, other tribes across Africa can join the Union without fear of domination.

0lumide:

Lmao!! You give Oyo 13 and give Akwa Ibom 11? lmao! That is a very lopsided and bias analysis.

The North will still sweep it in electoral college.

Does Oyo and Akwa Ibom house the same number of Nigerians? lmao!! Lagos is 10$ of Nigerian population!! That is like umm 50 !!!!!!

Again, don't bring north vs south mentality into this!! It won't work on me!!!

I'm all for fairness for everyone. You see I pointed out that Electoral college won't be good for SS or SE.

Let's be fair bro!!

You got it wrong. Oyo would get 17 while Akwa Ibom would get 11. I added the number of senators to the number of reps in the house of reps. That is how the United States allocates electoral college votes.

@danjohn, its like u are being biased. The south west and Lagos in particular can vote for a core northerner vs non Yoruba southerner that is viewed as incompetent. Infact, the same culture of tolerance towards religion that makes most north central states swing states also applies to the south west.

trillville: @danjohn, its like u are being biased. The south west and Lagos in particular can vote for a core northerner vs non Yoruba southerner that is viewed as incompetent. Infact, the same culture of tolerance towards religion that makes most north central states swing states also applies to the south west.

I agree with you. That is why I said that there are several caveats. All things being equal, if southwesterners are to choose between two very well funded campaigns between Rochas and Buhari, Rochas would have the advantage. However, if they are to choose between Rochas and Ribadu, it may be a tight race that goes to the person who has the better campaign organization.

I posted a high level analysis not a precise hard rule.

danjohn:

You got it wrong. Oyo would get 17 while Akwa Ibom would get 11. I added the number of senators to the number of reps in the house of reps. That is how the United States allocates electoral college votes.

Danjohn, Nigeria is a union of tribal nations, Amercian system will not work.

I gave you a system that can work in my previous post. Criticize and or add to that but I must admit, this thread is about electoral college.

The only important states in the "south" will be Lagos and Oyo as it holds more population than other states in the "south"

We can not switch to a system just because we don't want the North to win.

But remember that, electoral colleges are still determined by popular votes. e.g, if say Ribadu wins popular votes in Lagos, he gets all of Lagos electoral votes. Is this what we really want? Even when the margin between Buhari and is opponent may be 20 votes. Is this what we really want?

Dead on arrival. We don't have an accurate population count and number of Reps are allocated to states based on population. I guess Gowon was impressed with the free and fair US election and heard about the electoral college without putting an effort into understanding how it works.
Next topic.

0lumide:

What we should be canvassing for is this, Having Nigeria return to regionalism, And Kogi, Kwara returned to West, as a Yoruba region, All Hausa land become Hausa region, each distinct tribe have their own region and 1 representative in the federal council each for each tribal region! Have the regions control every thing in their regions, and the reps they have in the federal council will be there. No president, no prime ministers. Federal decisions are made by the consensus of the council reps.

Each region pay their reps in Abuja, no senate! Each regions is it's own administrator. No decision from Abuja is forced down on regions! This is the only solution to Nigeria's unity!

With a system like the Above, other tribes across Africa can join the Union without fear of domination.

I partially agree with your framework. The only only issue I have is that I think that it is too far reaching. I do believe that many states in Nigeria are glorified local governments. I also believe that some of the states need to be consolidated and that every region needs to have an equal number of states. However, I do not believe that the federal government should be completely inconsequential. We need a President/Prime Minister to manage our foreign policy and we need a federal government that is strong enough to create cohesion between the different regions. While I believe we need fewer states, I am not yet convinced we need to completely return to having only 3 regions. Please remember that having only 3 regions made it easier for secession to threaten our national unity.

As for the electoral college system, I have no position on it. I am only presenting information to help nairalanders have a clearer picture of what it will entail if it is enacted. There are several factors in elections. What I presented was very high level. It is possible for Igbos to vote for a Northerner if he has an Igbo VP that is presidential material in 8 years. It is also possible for Yorubas to vote for a Northerner if the alternative is Gbenga Daniels or Alao Akala.

I do acknowledge that an electoral college could increase the incentive for states to rig the census in order to increase their electoral college votes. However, one can argue that the federal revenue allocation and the current construct of the House of Representative already provides that incentive. Critics can also argue that an electoral college has the potential to make our presidential politics skewed to cater to only the interests of swing states. Additionally, since Nigerians are often suspicious of people outside their tribe, some tribes may feel irked by the fact that another tribe has more electoral college votes than them. While this may be true, one can also argue that the House of Representatives is already based on some tribes having more seats that others.

One of the advantages of the electoral college system is that it makes it easier for presidential candidates to allocate campaign resources. For example, in Nigeria a candidate has to run up huge margins in all 36 states plus Abuja. But with the electoral college, a candidate like Jonathan would have focused all his money in the SW and NC (Plus Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, and excluding Niger) since he knows he has the SE and SS in the bag. Buhari on the other hand would have spent his VERY limited resources better and he wouldnt have spent time campaigning in the Core North to drive up his victory margin. Instead he would spent most of his time in the swing states.

Right now it is very expensive to run a formidable campaign for President of Nigeria and only PDP can afford it. An electoral college will shrink a Presidential race to 9 or 10 states and even the paying field for the opposition.

There is a chance that an electoral college may actually make our presidential elections more competitive and act as a catalyst for good governance. Conversely, a cynic can argue that the electoral college will simply make PDP know precisely where they need to rig in order to win a Presidential election.

I am trying to be objective while also playing devil's advocate. My hope is that doing so will help us analyse this issue without being sentimental.

Copy cat!
Like it will fix the rot in the Nigerian society and psyche?
Another sign of hopelessness and failure!

My Agnostic God bless America jare. . . my home sweet home!

My thoughts exactly!!!
There is really nothing wrong with copying but:
1) What you are copying must be relevant to your problem
2) You must know how to copy properly and adapt.

Electoral college has nothing to do with Nigeria's problems.
Just like his "genius" idea of dismantling regions has led us nowhere - even he is against more states now - this "new" idea is completely bogus.

Same set of people for 50 years, same nonsensical ideas.

Callotti: Copy cat!
Like it will fix the rot in the Nigerian society and psyche?
Another sign of hopelessness and failure!

My Agnostic God bless America jare. . . my home sweet home!

danjohn:

I partially agree with your framework. The only only issue I have is that I think that it is too far reaching. I do believe that many states in Nigeria are glorified local governments. I also believe that some of the states need to be consolidated and that every region needs to have an equal number of states. However, I do not believe that the federal government should be completely inconsequential. We need a President/Prime Minister to manage our foreign policy and we need a federal government that is strong enough to create cohesion between the different regions. While I believe we need fewer states, I am not yet convinced we need to completely return to having only 3 regions. Please remember that having only 3 regions made it easier for secession to threaten our national unity.

As for the electoral college system, I have no position on it. I am only presenting information to help nairalanders have a clearer picture of what it will entail if it is enacted. There are several factors in elections. What I presented was very high level. It is possible for Igbos to vote for a Northerner if he has an Igbo VP that is presidential material in 8 years. It is also possible for Yorubas to vote for a Northerner if the alternative is Gbenga Daniels or Alao Akala.

I do acknowledge that an electoral college could increase the incentive for states to rig the census in order to increase their electoral college votes. However, one can argue that the federal revenue allocation and the current construct of the House of Representative already provides that incentive. Critics can also argue that an electoral college has the potential to make our presidential politics skewed to cater to only the interests of swing states. Additionally, since Nigerians are often suspicious of people outside their tribe, some tribes may feel irked by the fact that another tribe has more electoral college votes than them. While this may be true, one can also argue that the House of Representatives is already based on some tribes having more seats that others.

One of the advantages of the electoral college system is that it makes it easier for presidential candidates to allocate campaign resources. For example, in Nigeria a candidate has to run up huge margins in all 36 states plus Abuja. But with the electoral college, a candidate like Jonathan would have focused all his money in the SW and NC (Plus Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, and excluding Niger) since he knows he has the SE and SS in the bag. Buhari on the other hand would have spent his VERY limited resources better and he wouldnt have spent time campaigning in the Core North to drive up his victory margin. Instead he would spent most of his time in the swing states.

Right now it is very expensive to run a formidable campaign for President of Nigeria and only PDP can afford it. An electoral college will shrink a Presidential race to 9 or 10 states and even the paying field for the opposition.

There is a change that an electoral college may actually make our presidential elections more competitive and act as a catalyst for good governance. Conversely, a cynic can argue that the electoral college will simply make PDP know precisely where they need to rig in order to win a Presidential election.

I am trying to be objective while also playing devil's advocate. My hope is that doing so will help us analyse this issue without being sentimental.

Nice post! But here is what I think:

Representation by population (rep by pop) is a very evil way to go about democracy. What rep by pop bring about is what many law philosophers called "the tyranny of the majority". Take the Ogoni people for instance. Ogonis are native to Nigeria, native to Rivers state but remain a silenced minority both in Nigerian federation and Rivers States. I don't think the Ogonis are happy to be minority and can't have rule over their land.

That is why I said, our military and foreign policy will be decided by our federal council consisting of 1 representative from each tribe in Nigeria. That way, the majority can not impose itself on the minority and vice versa... Tribal regions are very important in a nation like Nigeria. That way, Beroms won't face troubles of Fulanis and vice versa. It is only in a system like this that Nigeria can truly be unified. Anything that gives more power to the majority creates tyranny of the majority and rebellion of the minority.

No matter how small a tribe is, they deserve to have anyone or anything be imposed on them. That is why each tribal region should have equal number(s) of reps in the federal council while other matters are handled regionally not nationally. Protection of our borders, national security, foreign policy, all will be decided by the federal council while development of each tribal region, and other domestic matters will be handled regionally. Any land being disputed by two tribes or more will become a barrack until the dispute is solved and the land could be rented by our federal council which will have national investments in different regions. The national investments must comply with the laws of the region so the federal council can not just impose it self on the regions. Federal investments must be approved by the region it is to be situated in.

This is the way forward my people; this is the only way Africa can know peace! Anything short of this is a disaster waiting to happen. Let the tribes control their ancestral territory without imposition from outside.

I need critics to weigh in on this idea as I'm still developing it and will post it on my blog when I'm ready to compile it all..


So back to electoral college. Since requires representation by population, we will still have more chaos of the rebellion of the minority.

Dead on arrival. You can't build electoral college on spurious population figures.

danjohn:

I partially agree with your framework. The only only issue I have is that I think that it is too far reaching. I do believe that many states in Nigeria are glorified local governments. I also believe that some of the states need to be consolidated and that every region needs to have an equal number of states. However, I do not believe that the federal government should be completely inconsequential. We need a President/Prime Minister to manage our foreign policy and we need a federal government that is strong enough to create cohesion between the different regions. While I believe we need fewer states, I am not yet convinced we need to completely return to having only 3 regions. Please remember that having only 3 regions made it easier for secession to threaten our national unity.

As for the electoral college system, I have no position on it. I am only presenting information to help nairalanders have a clearer picture of what it will entail if it is enacted. There are several factors in elections. What I presented was very high level. It is possible for Igbos to vote for a Northerner if he has an Igbo VP that is presidential material in 8 years. It is also possible for Yorubas to vote for a Northerner if the alternative is Gbenga Daniels or Alao Akala.

I do acknowledge that an electoral college could increase the incentive for states to rig the census in order to increase their electoral college votes. However, one can argue that the federal revenue allocation and the current construct of the House of Representative already provides that incentive. Critics can also argue that an electoral college has the potential to make our presidential politics skewed to cater to only the interests of swing states. Additionally, since Nigerians are often suspicious of people outside their tribe, some tribes may feel irked by the fact that another tribe has more electoral college votes than them. While this may be true, one can also argue that the House of Representatives is already based on some tribes having more seats that others.

One of the advantages of the electoral college system is that it makes it easier for presidential candidates to allocate campaign resources. For example, in Nigeria a candidate has to run up huge margins in all 36 states plus Abuja. But with the electoral college, a candidate like Jonathan would have focused all his money in the SW and NC (Plus Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, and excluding Niger) since he knows he has the SE and SS in the bag. Buhari on the other hand would have spent his VERY limited resources better and he wouldnt have spent time campaigning in the Core North to drive up his victory margin. Instead he would spent most of his time in the swing states.

Right now it is very expensive to run a formidable campaign for President of Nigeria and only PDP can afford it. An electoral college will shrink a Presidential race to 9 or 10 states and even the paying field for the opposition.

There is a change that an electoral college may actually make our presidential elections more competitive and act as a catalyst for good governance. Conversely, a cynic can argue that the electoral college will simply make PDP know precisely where they need to rig in order to win a Presidential election.

I am trying to be objective while also playing devil's advocate. My hope is that doing so will help us analyse this issue without being sentimental.

Also, note that the reasons regionalism failed before were because 1: regions were meddling in the affairs of other regions (Ahmadu bello using Tafawa Balewa to meddle), 2: Minorities were cramped with majorities in regions...

North should stop threatening us becos of 2015 o.

Since its Gowon that said it,it will never happen.it actually means that its an anti-Igbo proposal.

Sealeddeal: Since its Gowon that said it,it will never happen.it actually means that its an anti-Igbo proposal.

My thoughts exactly.

The proposal should be been "messengered" by somebody else.

Yeske!:
Dead on arrival. We don't have an accurate population count and number of Reps are allocated to states based on population. I guess Gowon was impressed with the free and fair US election and heard about the electoral college without putting an effort into understanding how it works.
Next topic.

War-time General "Dan Jos" got a lil carried away . . .wishful thinking!!

Stupid and senseless suggestion . We are still suffering from d very expensive American system, and instead of them abolishing d system, they want to now adopt it to d fullest. We are never original, and when we copy (which we do all d time), we alway copy d wrong thing . Instead of Northern states copying UAE, they choose to copy Yemen.

My question is " how do we allocate electoral votes to each state as practised in America?". Who gets more, who gets less?

highlandre: My question is " how do we allocate electoral votes to each state as practised in America?". Who gets more, who gets less?

In the US electors are equal to the number of members of House of reps and Senators and Washington DC also has even those no senator and reps.

highlandre: My question is " how do we allocate electoral votes to each state as practised in America?". Who gets more, who gets less?

In the US electors are equal to the number of members of House of reps and Senators and Washington DC also has even those no senator and reps. Each state in us has 2 senators. But the house of rep is 435 in total and divided proportionally according to the population. So biggest state like California(my home state) has 53 while Wyoming has 1. So if we want to this back home we must have accurate census