As we approach the finishing line of the 2015 Presidential elections, a slew of forecasts and prognosis are making the rounds in the media: print, electronic and online.

An important staple of these predictions is that they are invariably amenable to the leaning or political persuasion of the forecasters. It has been commonplace to play up the advantages of preferences while the shortcomings of the counterparty is greatly magnified.

The problem with a subjective prediction are rife but the most critical is that it could be among the root causes of post-electoral violence and disaffection.
The propaganda going on from virtually all parties involved in the contest have a tendency to misrepresent reality and lead to unsavoury consequences.

The South West region will certainly be a key determinant to the electoral fortunes of the two leading candidates in the forthcoming election. The foregoing is further corroborated by the intensity of the campaigning going on in the region.

This prediction will attempt a critical x-raying of the possible outcome of each state taking key political factors into consideration.
It is almost trite to aver that political structures are the vehicles that propel electoral fortunes.

EKITI STATE
This state would go to the PDP handily. Right here, the governor Ayo Fayose holds sway: he has a kind of cult following. Granted that the ex-governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi is still somewhat a factor, I don't see anything other than a tidy PDP victory. I believe the APC lost this state after the last gubernatorial election.

Prediction: PDP 65% APC 35%

LAGOS STATE
Lagos is the veritable melting pot of Nigerian nationalities and I foresee this playing a role in the outcome. The national leader of the APC, ex-governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be in charge here, but his popularity is coming under the severest test since 1999. On the PDP side, the performance would depend on how the trio of Chief Bode George, Sen Musiliu Obanikoro and Sen Kingsley Adeseye Ogunleye mend their fences and forge a unity of purpose.

The close match in popularity of the guber candidates of both APC and the PDP viz Mr Akinwunmi Ambode and Mr Jimi Agbaje respectively hardly helps matters.

In the final analysis, I believe the non-Yoruba voters in Lagos would marginally swing Lagos in favour of the PDP.

Prediction: PDP 53% APC 47%

OGUN STATE
This is state is one of the toughest state to predict in the region. It has a history of rubbishing predictions in the past. This states has in its role call political gladiators of almost every shade. A peep: Baba Olesegun Obasanjo, Chief Segun Osoba, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Kashamu Buruji, Governor Ibikunle Amosu, Dimeji Bankole and others.

However, recent developments will tilt this state to the APC. Firstly, the Jonathan/Obasanjo face-off couldn't have come at a worse time for the PDP. Besides, the APC Vice-Presidential candidate hails from here.
On the flip side, the PDP would, contrary to most predictions, record a good showing here. Buruji wields some influence in this state. Jonathan's best minister, Dr Akinwunmi Adesina comes from this state.
The APC crisis that saw ex-governor Osoba decamp with the Deputy Governor, all three sitting senators and some members of HOR to the SDP could harm the APC. Finally, Gbenga Daniel with the Sagamu factor is still relevant in the scheme of things.

Prediction: APC 60% PDP 40%

ONDO STATE
Despite the purported rift in Ondo PDP, I think Mimiko is still in charge here. Mimiko has demonstrated considerable staying power on the political turf and I don't see that changing in the next thirty days.
The most reverred political figure in this state is Chief Olu Falae, the leader of Social Democratic Party. It is expected that the SDP would endorse Jonathan for the election.
For the paucity of many key political players in this state, I think the PDP will comfortably carry the day cue Governor Segun Mimiko.

Prediction: PDP 65% APC 35%

OSUN STATE
This state gave the PDP the least vote in the region in 2011 and I don't see that changing. Governor Rauf Aregbesola is popular here and would greatly sway things in favour of the APC.
However, the PDP are no paper-weight here. Iyiola Omisore hails from the important Ife axis and depicted his potency by garnering about 45% of total votes cast in the last guber election. Something has also to be said about Femi Fani-Kayode who is among the emerging young Turks in the SW political calculations.

Prediction: APC 66% PDP 34%


OYO STATE
This state has to be too close to call. The main gladiators here are evenly matched. There is hardly much that could distinguish among the incumbent governor Abiola Ajimobi and ex-governors Christopher Alao-Akala and Rasheed Ladoja. The re-election of the sitting governor is by no means guaranteed.

I believe the sitting governor would be engrossed in trying to save his skin and may have been building bridges to accomplish the objective.
The emergence of Sen Teslim Folarin appears to be a gameplan by the PDP to strike a trade-off to win this state in the presidential election.

Prediction: PDP 53% APC 47%

very flawed analysis especially from osun and ogun state. FFK wields no influence in osun state just forget it. The only reason pdp did well in the guber elections is because omisore is from ife and the bulk of the votes came from there, presidential elections will be different.
As for Ogun, Osoba's defection will only affect the local elections not the presidential, Osoba wont lead sdp to vote pdp in the presidential elections the same way umana in akwa ibom wont lead apc to vote buhari, you can take that to the bank. The rest of the states right now are too close to call, things may change as we get closer to the elections.

My state, Akwa Ibom state.
APC 5% for noise making.
PDP 95%

lol Femi Fani Kayode, a factor? 30 days time, we will see. All punditry allowed.

1wolex85:
very flawed analysis especially from osun and ogun state. FFK wields no influence in osun state just forget it. The only reason pdp did well in the guber elections is because omisore is from ife and the bulk of the votes came from there, presidential elections will be different.
As for Ogun, Osoba's defection will only affect the local elections not the presidential, Osoba wont lead sdp to vote pdp in the presidential elections the same way umana in akwa ibom wont lead apc to vote buhari, you can take that to the bank. The rest of the states right now are too close to call, things may change as we get closer to the elections.

You are wrong I have to say.

What do you think would be the fate of APC renegades like Chief Osoba were APC to win the gubernatorial and the presidency?

The foregoing would no doubt sound a death knell on their political career.

Or are you implying the decamped for the sake of decamping?

@ Op, Are you implying GEJ will have a better performance in the SW in 2015 than 2011 ? You kept on giving him high % as if voters are all mindless sheep that will be whip in to line by one big shepherd.......

You know in your hearts of hearts that his SW performance in 2015 will be worse than 2011.

2011 performance was 58% ooooooooo.

Subsidy, corruption, insecurity e.t.c are on voters mind.

emiye:
@ Op, Are you implying GEJ will have a better performance in the SW in 2015 than 2011 ? You kept on giving him high % as if voters are all mindless sheep that will be whip in to line by one big shepherd.......

You know in your hearts of hearts that his SW performance in 2015 will be worse than 2011.

2011 performance was 58% ooooooooo.

Subsidy, corruption, insecurity e.t.c are on voters mind.

Jonathan won the SW convincingly in 2011, this analysis is only giving him a marginal victory in 2015.

Structures win elections and not propaganda and campaign ground turn-outs.

maestroferddi:
Jonathan won the SW convincingly in 2011, this analysis is only giving him a marginal victory.

Structures win elections and not propaganda.

He got 58% of SW votes in 2011, coupled with a lot of voter apathy.

If it is by structures, the Opposition now control more states that matter in SW. Ogun and Oyo were obtained from PDP that was leading those states then. Agreed, it lost ekiti, but put it in mind that the total votes of ondo state and ekiti state is not up to that of Oyo state.

I am typing from Ibadan, 3 days ago, i met a man who will not vote APC in the gubernatorial, but told me surely he will vote in the presidential for Buhari, several others i have seen might not vote APC at gubernatorial , but they will vote APC at presidential.

The election will be like a Yes or No referrendum on Jonathan in SW.

Junk analysis. I shyt and spit on it.

emiye:
He got 58% of SW votes in 2011, coupled with a lot of voter apathy.

If it is by structures, the Opposition now control more states that matter in SW. Ogun and Oyo were obtained from PDP that was leading those states then. Agreed, it lost ekiti, but put it in mind that the total votes of ondo state and ekiti state is not up to that of Oyo state.

I am typing from Ibadan, 3 days ago, i met a man who will not vote APC in the gubernatorial, but told me surely he will vote in the presidential for Buhari, several others i have seen might not vote APC at gubernatorial , but they will vote APC at presidential.

The election will be like a Yes or No referrendum on Jonathan in SW.

Show us how his opponents fared in the South West in 2011 in figures and percentages.

I wonder why you guys still miraculously claim that Jonathan /PDP will win Lagos State.

Hell will have to freeze over before Tinubu/APC will lose a major election in Lagos State.Tinubu has got Lagos on the lock down.

Don't put any stock in all the noise making PDP is engaging in. Bode George cannot and I repeat cannot and has never delivered his polling unit to PDP.

maestroferddi:
Show us how his opponents fared in the South West in 2011 in figures and percentages.

His opponents did not fare well for obvious reasons.

The ACN presidential ticket though sick, died on the night of attempted merger with CPC when there was a rumoured resignation of Ribadu. The CPC had no structure whatsoever.

The ACN technically raised hands off in 2015 and barely mobilised , the electorates also observed that the ACN ticket will not fly. some fell in love with his new face and fresh air mantra, Some voters not too moved with GEJ sat down and watched from the sidelines, the voters turnout was the worst at barely 30%. 4 years is a whole lot of time in politics a lot has changed bro.

emiye:


His opponents did not fare well for obvious reasons.

The ACN presidential ticket though sick, died on the night of attempted merger with CPC when there was a rumoured resignation of Ribadu. The CPC had no structure whatsoever.

The ACN technically raised hands off in 2015 and barely mobilised , the electorates also observed that the ACN ticket will not fly. some fell in love with his new face and fresh air mantra, Some voters not too moved with GEJ sat down and watched from the sidelines, the voters turnout was the worst at barely 30%. 4 years is a whole lot of time in politics a lot has changed bro.

I requested for figures and percentages and not some simplistic speculations.

maestroferddi:
You are wrong I have to say.

What do you think would be the fate of APC renegades like Chief Osoba were APC to win the gubernatorial and the presidency?

The foregoing would no doubt sound a death knell on their political career.

Or are you implying the decamped for the sake of decamping?

osoba decamped for local politics period! if you know the slightest thing about osoba, you will know the guy wont vote pdp, period!

ddazz:
I wonder why you guys still miraculously claim that Jonathan /PDP will win Lagos State.

Hell will have to freeze over before Tinubu/APC will lose a major election in Lagos State.Tinubu has got Lagos on the lock down.

Don't put any stock in all the noise making PDP is engaging in. Bode George cannot and I repeat cannot and has never delivered his polling unit to PDP.

The active players in Lagos APC are aware of the PDP threat in the state.

I have witnessed a forum where it was agreed by APC analysts and strategists that the coming together of Obanikoro, George and Ogunleye does not bode well for the APC in Lagos.

You seem to have overlooked the fact that Tinubu political hegemony over Lagos has hardly ever been seriously challenged in since 2007.

In 2007, the crisis in the PDP pitting Obasanjo against Bode George made way for Fashola to have a smooth sailing.

In 2011, the emergence of the lame duck in Dr Ade Dosunmu was part of the putative accord between Jonathan and Tinubu. The consequence was a Fashola landslide.

This time around there is no accord.

[s]

maestroferddi:
As we approach the finishing line of the 2015 Presidential elections, a slew of forecasts and prognosis are making the rounds in the media: print, electronic and online.

An important staple of these predictions is that they are invariably amenable to the leaning or political persuasion of the forecasters. It has been commonplace to play up the advantages of preferences while the shortcomings of the counterparty is greatly magnified.

The problem with a subjective prediction are rife but the most critical is that it could be among the root causes of post-electoral violence and disaffection.
The propaganda going on from virtually all parties involved in the contest have a tendency to misrepresent reality and lead to unsavoury consequences.

The South West region will certainly be a key determinant to the electoral fortunes of the two leading candidates in the forthcoming election. The foregoing is further corroborated by the intensity of the campaigning going on in the region.

This prediction will attempt a critical x-raying of the possible outcome of each state taking key political factors into consideration.
It is almost trite to aver that political structures are the vehicles that propel electoral fortunes.

EKITI STATE
This state would go to the PDP handily. Right here, the governor Ayo Fayose holds sway: he has a kind of cult following. Granted that the ex-governor, Dr Kayode Fayemi still somewhat a factor, I don't see anything other than a tidy PDP victory here. I believe the APC lost this state after the last gubernatorial election.

Prediction: PDP 65% APC 35%

LAGOS STATE
Lagos is the veritable melting pot of Nigerian nationalities and I foresee this playing a role in the outcome. The national leader of the APC, ex-governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be in charge here, but his popularity is coming under the severest test since 1999. On the PDP side, their performance would depend on how the trio of Chief Bode George, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro and Sen Kingsley Adeseye Ogunleye mend their fences and forge a unity of purpose.

The close match in popularity of the guber candidates of both APC and the PDP viz Mr Akinwunmi Ambode and Mr Jimi Agbaje respectively hardly helps matters.

In the final analysis, I believe the non-Yoruba voters in Lagos would marginally swing Lagos in favour of the PDP.

Prediction: PDP 53% APC 47%

OGUN STATE
This is state is one of the toughest state to predict in the region. It has a history of rubbishing predictions in the past. This states has in its role call political gladiators of almost every shade. A peep: Baba Olesegun Obasanjo, Chief Segun Osoba, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Kashamu Buruji, Governor Ibikunle Amosu, Dimeji Bankole and others.

However, recent developments will tilt this state to the APC. Firstly the Jonathan/Obasanjo face-off couldn't have come at a worse time for the PDP. Besides, the APC Vice-Presidential candidate hails from here.
On the flip side, the PDP would, contrary to most predictions, record a good showing here. Buruji wields some influence here. Jonathan's best minister comes from this state. APC crisis that saw ex-governor Osoba decamp with all three sitting senators and some members of HOR to the SDP will harm the APC. Finally, Gbenga Daniel with the Sagamu factor is still relevant here.

Prediction: APC 60% PDP 40%

[/s]

[s]

maestroferddi:
ONDO STATE
Despite the purported rift in Ondo PDP, I think Mimiko is still in charge here. Mimiko has demonstrated considerable staying power on the political turf and I don't see that changing in the next thirty days.
The most reverred political figure in this state is Chief Olu Falae, the leader of Social Democratic Party. It is expected that the SDP would endorse Jonathan for the election.
For the paucity of many key political players in this state, I think the PDP will comfortably carry the day cue Governor Segun Mimiko.

Prediction: PDP 65% APC 35%

OSUN STATE
This state gave the PDP the least vote in the region in 2011 and I don't see that changing. Governor Rauf Aregbesola is popular here and would greatly sway things in favour of the APC.
However, the PDP are no paper-weight here. Iyiola Omisore hails from the important Ife axis and depicted his potency by garnering about 45% of total votes cast in the last guber election. Something has also to be said about Femi Fani-Kayode who is among the emerging young Turks in the SW political calculations.

Prediction: APC 66% PDP 34%


OYO STATE
This state has to be too close to call. The main gladiators here are evenly matched. There is hardly much that could distinguish among the incumbent governor Abiola Ajimobi and ex-governors Christopher Alao-Akala and Rasheed Ladoja. The re-election of the sitting governor is by no means guaranteed.

I believe the sitting governor would be engrossed in trying to save his skin and may have been building bridges to accomplish the objective.
The emergence of Sen Teslim Folarin appears to be a gameplan by the PDP to strike a trade-off to win this state in the presidential election.

Prediction: PDP 53% APC 43%

[/s]

Speak for your south east and stop speaking for us.

1wolex85:

osoba decamped for local politics period! if you know the slightest thing about osoba, you will know the guy wont vote pdp, period!

What makes you say that?

Was Osoba not in the recently concluded National Conference deemed by many to have been peopled mainly by pro-Jonathan politicians?

Bruteforce1o1:
[s][/s]

Speak for your south east and stop speaking for us.

You are duly ignored.

I laugh how this guy speaks for the SW. This is not your region where they vote with sentiment, Jona will lose all SW states. We shall see.

[s]

maestroferddi:
You are duly ignored.

[/s]

Cry till tomorrow, your boss cant win any South west states.

Bruteforce1o1:
[s][/s]

Cry till tomorrow, your boss cant win any South west states.

You make me laugh.

Elections are not necessarily popularity contests. They are about interests and reality.

We have been in this game long enough not to be swayed by cheap sensationalism and propaganda.

I can sit down here and type figures that favor my party all day long. The truth is PDP needs to forget SW, it's not happening. APC is not losing Lagos in 2015, forget about it. Jimi Agbaje is simply not strong enough, even he is not campaigning aggressively, he's acting like he doesn't want to waste his time. He's doing a lot of online campaigning, he was on Google hangout yesterday with only about 5 callers. He took answers from 5 callers that look like they were in the same office. He offered nothing new, he actually was for continuity. He said he'll be the one to commission the blue line. It means he approved of what's going on in Lagos but he'll just take it further. That's exactly what Ambode is saying, difference is Ambode has the backing of all the institutions that support APC and the ones they created. He actually has the experience, you can point to his achievements. He made Lagos less reliant on oil money. On top of all that, he's campaigning aggressively. This guy has been campaigning since about April last year.

Now that's gubernatorial, Lagos as far as presidency will probably be split along ethnic lines. Reason I'm saying this is, there are no achievements for GEJ to count on to help him out. All he's going to get is "he's our brother, we can't elect born to rule" vote

maestroferddi:
What makes you say that?

Was Osoba not in the recently concluded National Conference deemed by many to have been peopled mainly pro-Jonathan politicians?

osoba, pro jonathan? is that a joke or what? he only decamped because of the feud between him and the governor.ok lets wait till the election holds, then we'll all see.

mrmetoo1:
I can sit down here and type figures that favor my party all day long. The truth is PDP needs to forget SW, it's not happening. APC is not losing Lagos in 2015, forget about it. Jimi Agbaje is simply not strong enough, even he is not campaigning aggressively, he's acting like he doesn't want to waste his time. He's doing a lot of online campaigning, he was on Google hangout yesterday with only about 5 callers. He took answers from 5 callers that look like they were in the same office. He offered nothing new, he actually was for continuity. He said he'll be the one to commission the blue line. It means he approved of what's going on in Lagos but he'll just take it further. That's exactly what Ambode is saying, difference is Ambode has the backing of all the institutions that support APC and the ones they created. He actually has the experience, you can point to his achievements. He made Lagos less reliant on oil money. On top of all that, he's campaigning aggressively. This guy has been campaigning since about April last year.

Now that's gubernatorial, Lagos as far as presidency will probably be split along ethnic lines. Reason I'm saying this is, there are no achievements for GEJ to count on to help him out. All he's going to get is "he's our brother vote, we can't elect born to rule" vote

Just like I remarked in the background above, the problem with commenters in Nigeria is that they are hardly objective.

They only play up the chances of their preferred candidate whilst the perceived shortcomings of the opposite camp is greatly magnified.

I monitored the Agbaje online interview yesterday at Channels TV.
I believe he gave the best intelligent answer anyone can give on the Blue Rail question.

The question was whether he would continue with a project to which billions have been expended already. Now do you expect him to say that he would discontinue the project despite the massive outlay made already?

Did you forget that Buhari is still being haunted by the Lagos Monorail project that his government apparently quashed.

Let's be objective abeg.

maestroferddi:
I requested for figures and percentages and not some simplistic speculations.

I should not be spoon feeding you, if you want the breakdown, you can search for it online.

You are the pundit, you should at the least have a perspective of 2011 voting pattern.

maestroferddi:
Just like I remarked in the background above, the problem with commenters in Nigeria is that they are hardly objective.

They only play up the chances of their preferred candidate whilst the perceived shortcomings of the opposite camp is greatly magnified.

I monitored the Agbaje online interview yesterday at Channels TV.
I believe he gave the best intelligent answer anyone can give on the Blue Rail question.

The question was whether he would continue with a project to which billions have been expended already. Now do you expect him to say that he would discontinue the project despite the massive outlay made already?

Did you forget that Buhari is still being haunted by the Lagos Monorail project that his government apparently quashed.

Let's be objective abeg.

Objective is becoming one of those overused words on Nairaland. Point out to me how I'm not being objective. What I said first was whatever he's proposing his opponent has proposed already. On top of all these promises that anyone with a mic can make, his opponent actually has a track record. He actually has achievements that are palpable. He's already being pushed as the guy that rescued Lagos from economic collapse. To crown it, he's running a better campaign than Agbaje.

To put it politely, Agbaje is running a laid back campaign but if I'm being real, in my opinion, he's running a very lazy campaign. He's running like someone that doesn't feel he'll win but is just trying to put his name out there so that he can get some appointment. Ambode is appealing to the elite as well as the masses. Ambode is in a church in parkview today and in Mushin the next day. Agbaje seems to be restricting his campaign to the electorates online, this is how I see it.

Then Agbaje's recent utterances are not helping him at all

[s]

maestroferddi:
You make me laugh.

Elections are not necessarily popularity contests. They are about interests and reality.

We have been in this game long enough not to be swayed by cheap sensationalism and propaganda.

[/s]

mrmetoo1:


Objective is becoming one of those overused words on Nairaland. Point out to me how I'm not being objective. What I said first was whatever he's proposing his opponent has proposed already. On top of all these promises that anyone with a mic can make, his opponent actually has a track record. He actually has achievements that are palpable. He's already being pushed as the guy that rescued Lagos from economic collapse. To crown it, he's running a better campaign than Agbaje.

To put it politely, Agbaje is running a laid back campaign but if I'm being real, in my opinion, he's running a very lazy campaign. He's running like someone that doesn't feel he'll win but is just trying to put his name out there so that he can get some appointment. Ambode is appealing to the elite as well as the masses. Ambode is in a church in parkview today and in Mushin the next day. Agbaje seems to be restricting his campaign to the electorates online, this is how I see it.

Then Agbaje's recent utterances are not helping him at all

Agbaje's campaign in 2007 was better.

mrmetoo1:


Objective is becoming one of those overused words on Nairaland. Point out to me how I'm not being objective. What I said first was whatever he's proposing his opponent has proposed already. On top of all these promises that anyone with a mic can make, his opponent actually has a track record. He actually has achievements that are palpable. He's already being pushed as the guy that rescued Lagos from economic collapse. To crown it, he's running a better campaign than Agbaje.

To put it politely, Agbaje is running a laid back campaign but if I'm being real, in my opinion, he's running a very lazy campaign. He's running like someone that doesn't feel he'll win but is just trying to put his name out there so that he can get some appointment. Ambode is appealing to the elite as well as the masses. Ambode is in a church in parkview today and in Mushin the next day. Agbaje seems to be restricting his campaign to the electorates online, this is how I see it.

Then Agbaje's recent utterances are not helping him at all

You are not objective because...YOU ARE NOT OBJECTIVE.

Do you expect Mr Agbaje to, for instance, answer a poser like: "What is the capital of Lagos State?" with a wrong answer just because Mr Ambode has correctly answered a similar question previously?
Tell me the sense in your line of argument.

You reckon that Mr Ambode has been laidback is his campaign thrust. You apparently did not take into cognisance what led LASAA to begin to remove posters of certain candidates in Lagos.

Mr Agbaje with the calibre of people in his campaign team is expected to run systematic and well-coordinated campaign. We still have about six weeks prior to the guber elections and the time is ample enough to pass the message across. Everything depends on the strategy being put deployed.

Among Mr Agbaje itinerary is the debate being organised by TVC on 30th of January for all the candidates.

Noisemaking does not win elections.

1wolex85:

Agbaje's campaign in 2007 was better.

You may be jumping the gun.

It could be that Mr Agbaje wants the mega rallies of both parties to come and go before hitting the road.