stcool:


If it is N26 and above... I will make a kill. If it about waiting for payment. I base in Lagos I go pack to the registrars office and I sabi shout well o! dem go think say na be the highest shareholder!

Anyways at this price, I am willing to wait. Where am I rushing to?

its not only about waiting (that is the lesser risk)

the Major Risk is Alhaji rejecting the offer then u wld be left with an empty shell cos the company had been loss making of recent then the price cld even plunge to sub 6 which was the last strong support

so LOOK WELL at your RISK before u park ur fortune inside ooooooo

like is said i have some unit which if thing go awry might be painful but wnt kill me

i wld rather w8 to get more hint that Alhaji had accepted the offer b4 i wld park a fortune inside the thing because at that point it take on the xterictics of a fixed deposit

currentprice:


how 85.6? u mean 22.5

Please @currentprice this calculation is still unclear to me. Do you mind explaining how you arrived at 22.5 please? Thanks again sir.

DeRuggedProf:



After they collect all the tithes and offerings from you, they will no longer hold the usual December party.
Reason: they will now remember their equipment are due for upgrade, you will start seeing inflated contracts with HUAWEI.....
Huawei will start upgrading software for millions of dollars
Network expansion will become unending...

You are just full of wisdom.
God bless you left, right, front and back....

robobo:


i think ur figure is correct going by current financials

where the risk is largely situated is if Alhaji does not accept the offer or ask for higher price and olam rejected (note it is only the N26 that is binding on Olam) if u also rememeber something similar happened to Alhaji of recent when he made a binding offer for a cement coy / plant on southafrica and the coy requested for higher pricing which Alhaji did not agree with hence the deal failed.

a lesser risk is that of long drawn / prolonged payment even if the deal scales through.

i think this two risk is what is being priced in and why the price on NSE is not closing in on the N21-25

so the question for you wld be how SURE are you that Alhaji wld accept the N26 / N130b offer

and are you ready to wait for the prolonged period before the cash is paid if the deal scales through? (particulary in this period of cash being king?)

N.b im a foot deep so my view might be tinted / biased

Do you think they reached a landing with Alhaji before making that bid? I would normally think so but I don't know.

robobo:


My Oga i ask a question of u some moons back but didnt get a response

what metrics do u use to measure when price had gone ahead of value

i presently use 5 year average p/bv though it had failed me on some few occassions so i am looking to compare

Buying price is more of human behaviour towards the stock. Some times they get irrational and start selling off good stocks. And they don't buy until they see price jumping 10% for days before they line up again and start buying even if it is higher than the price they sold.

Stock investment should be simple as Warren and Graham described it. But sometimes, there could be lots of formula that will bamboozle you.

After you have finished your calculations, the main move is in the buying. You could buy and prices will still go down further. Does it mean that you are wrong? Human psychology comes into play immediately by saying that you bought so high. That you could have waited. That is why you to make things simple:

Ask yourself these two questions:

A: Do I want cashflow through dividends payment?

B:Do I want capital appreciation?

If you align yourself towards A, it means that you will have to research into companies that have been paying dividends for many years uninterrupted.

Then the next question is: What percentage am I looking at after taking WHT? If you are ok with X%, then do your DY calculation discounting WHT and then get Price (P) from it. But the assumption is that the previous dividend is what will be paid again.

It is very simple approach that you don't even need to kill yourself.

Your P/BV, PE, ROI, DE, Net of net valuations, Profit Margins etc are just mere selection criteria which will narrow down what to buy. But the actual move is the price you pay for it which can change based on lots of factors especially human behaviour (fear/greed).

While lying low in a stock, if the price moves to the point that your gains on the stock = Y number of years dividends, then you sell off. Note that X and Y are dependent on what you think is great for you.

However, if you want capital appreciation(scenario B): Meet FXuser, BullBearMarket, Agba.

Remember Warren Buffett statement after he lost in 2008 on ConocoPhillips: Beware of geeks-bearing formula!


I hope this helps.

I don go write epistle

robobo:


its not only about waiting (that is the lesser risk)

the Major Risk is Alhaji rejecting the offer then u wld be left with an empty shell cos the company had been loss making of recent then the price cld even plunge to sub 6 which was the last strong support

so LOOK WELL at your RISK before u park ur fortune inside ooooooo

like is said i have some unit which if thing go awry might be painful but wnt kill me

i wld rather w8 to get more hint that Alhaji had accepted the offer b4 i wld park a fortune inside the thing because at that point it take on the xterictics of a fixed deposit

True talk, but why would Alhaji reject N26.00 from Olams, he is loosing the market and Olams can't wait to take over DF, they highlited it again recently in their parent company YR end remarks. Meanwhile we wait to see.

robobo:


its not only about waiting (that is the lesser risk)

the Major Risk is Alhaji rejecting the offer then u wld be left with an empty shell cos the company had been loss making of recent then the price cld even plunge to sub 6 which was the last strong support

so LOOK WELL at your RISK before u park ur fortune inside ooooooo

like is said i have some unit which if thing go awry might be painful but wnt kill me

i wld rather w8 to get more hint that Alhaji had accepted the offer b4 i wld park a fortune inside the thing because at that point it take on the xterictics of a fixed deposit

Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.
U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal, yet the company released an official statement(duly signed by its SEC and CFO) to confirm it? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
It's just like doubting if Alhaji D did give his backing after the same coy DF, officially announced the sale of its noodles arm of business to Dufil Prima(makers of indomie)
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has a ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

onegentleguy:


Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

Very correct. Those press release came with the full backing of Alhaji. Let me just wait and see. I have enough now just to wait for Olams to credit my account.

stcool:


True talk, but why would Alhaji reject N26.00 from Olams, he is loosing the market and Olams can't wait to take over DF, they highlited it again recently in their parent company YR end remarks. Meanwhile we wait to see.

.

From the little i know of Dangflour vis a vis the bid i think the deal breaker / maker wld be the access to the port / sea that Olam wanted along with the company.

why above might be a dealbreaker is as follow

Does Alhaji currently have any other port / sea Access apart from that of DangFlour? i think yes cos i know Cement also have a terminal

would Alhaji want a premium for the port sea Access considering that Olam does not presently have same and wld kill to have it (due to there overall business and not only flour). i think so, so the final question is how badly does Olam want it? Remember that Alhaji is a Shark and he already knows how badly Olam want that port access.

you can conclude the rest on your own

creategist:



Please @currentprice this calculation is still unclear to me. Do you mind explaining how you arrived at 22.5 please? Thanks again sir.

creategist:


Oga C.P. pls do you mind explaining how u calculater 22.5? It's not clear to me. Thanks.

bro we try to know the eps as in PAT ^453b divided by no of outstanding share ^20b

ignore this number because the PAT is wrong

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26190_CHAMS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2019.pdf
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25430_CHAMS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2019.pdf

I think that these people are trying to confuse person oooo. I do not understand, can someone please help me to interpret this NOTIFICATION.

Cham PLC is a subsidiary of Charms group .

The dividend is from Cham PLC not Cham Group.

robobo:
.

From the little i know of Dangflour vis a vis the bid i think the deal breaker / maker wld be the access to the port / sea that Olam wanted along with the company.

why above might be a dealbreaker is as follow

Does Alhaji currently have any other port / sea Access apart from that of DangFlour? i think yes cos i know Cement also have a terminal

would Alhaji want a premium for the port sea Access considering that Olam does not presently have same and wld kill to have it (due to there overall business and not only flour). i think so, so the final question is how badly does Olam want it? Remember that Alhaji is a Shark and he already knows how badly Olam want that port access.

you can conclude the rest on your own

Well in summary I am very loaded here... I will wait the final closure price for the deal.

And thanks so much for the contribution!

onegentleguy:


Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

Chief i am not Alhaji and i dont have that information so from the night school that i went to i was taught to err on the side of caution by assuming the WORST CASE SCENARIO. (particularly if it is my money or entrusted money that is involved).

moreso the example of southafrica that i gave involved the same Alhaji though as a bidder

so you can make your own conclusion from all the information. i only stated what i know and can deduce / Synthesize from information in public domain

robobo:
.

From the little i know of Dangflour vis a vis the bid i think the deal breaker / maker wld be the access to the port / sea that Olam wanted along with the company.

why above might be a dealbreaker is as follow

Does Alhaji currently have any other port / sea Access apart from that of DangFlour? i think yes cos i know Cement also have a terminal

would Alhaji want a premium for the port sea Access considering that Olam does not presently have same and wld kill to have it (due to there overall business and not only flour). i think so, so the final question is how badly does Olam want it? Remember that Alhaji is a Shark and he already knows how badly Olam want that port access.

you can conclude the rest on your own

This too is been sorted !!

stcool:


Well in summary I am very loaded here... I will wait the final closure price for the deal.

You get mind

Yayira:


You get mind

RabbiDoracle:
I don go write epistle

My Oga na me you write am for and i am more than grateful cos it affords me an opportunity to see the working of another mind on same subject which is quite invaluable / priceless

once again thank you i appr8

onegentleguy:


Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
It's just like doubting wheather Alhaji D did give his backing after the same coy, DF officially announced the sale of its noodles arm of business to Difil Prima(makers of indomie)
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

robobo:


Chief i am not Alhaji and i dont have that information so from the night school that i went to i was taught to err on the side of caution by assuming the WORST CASE SCENARIO. (particularly if it is my money or entrusted money that is involved).

moreso the example of southafrica that i gave involved the same Alhaji though as a bidder

so you can make your own conclusion from all the information. i only stated what i know and can deduce / Synthesize from information in public domain

On the bolded, now u are talking !!
There is always a difference btw been the acquirer of an asset to been a seller. But that's not up for discourse now.
Hope u read the part of my post in bold. Thats just the point.
But as u rightly said, u are very free to assess things ur way.

Regards.

onegentleguy:



On the bolded, now u are talking !!
There is always a difference btw been a acquirer of an asset to been an seller. But that's not up for discourse now.
Hope u read the part of my post in bold. Thats just the point.
But as u rightly said, u are free to assess things ur way.

Regards.

I appreciate you and Oga robobo contribution on this issue... My mind is rest assured I am on the right course with my investment in DF.

In summary buy with the mindset of a fundamentalist Lol
Sell with the mindset of a trader

stcool:


I appreciate you and Oga robobo contribution on this issue... My mind is rest assured I am on the right course with my investment in DF.

My Pleasure !!

stcool:


I appreciate you and Oga robobo contribution on this issue... My mind is rest assured I am on the right course with my investment in DF.

Just follow ur instinct my dear !!
Btw, know exactly what u want and why u want it. ...have a laid out strategy and do well to religiously follow thru with it, then season it accordingly as u thread along.
This is what I always advise folks everyday. When u can effectively work the bolded, u'll find out that every other thing is inconsequential !!

Cheers.

pluto09:



You can have a look at this,

Thank u bro

my bedsheet shows no excitment with the numbers

based on Q1 it price MTN for fairprice of N24

except the rest Q's numbers coming out good than expected, if they maintain same Q1 thru out the year fairprice will be N96

for me and my household we are not buying MTN for now while i wish buyers goodluck.

sentiment can push it up for you sha

RabbiDoracle:
I don go write epistle

Lol. No be epistle sir, it's insightful and educative.
Where we go come see Agba, Fxuser and BBM for the Part B lecture now?

onegentleguy:


Are u kidding me?
U are truly been funny with ur assessment of things.

U really think Alhaji D(the suppossed owner of the company, DF) hasn't given the green light to the deal and the company released an official statement(duly signed by the company sec and CFO) to confirm the deal? ...and Olam going ahead to do same?
It's just like doubting wheather Alhaji D did give his backing after the same coy, DF officially announced the sale of its noodles arm of business to Difil Prima(makers of indomie)
My dear, I can tell u without mincing words that Alhaji has given full backing to the sale !!

Those looking to KEY in can do so, but only after doing their calculations well. ...it's important to also know why u are buying and what u want out of the investment before taking a dive. Clearly, current price level has an ROI differential that one can 'tap' from.

Just a candid piece... not a recommendation.

DISCLOSURE: I have since sold off my stake in DF @ N18.80. ...I recall I stated that here back then.

i dont have the above bolded info (and same is not in public domain) and that is why i called for caution (in anyway i am still sourcing for it also). if i have it then as stated it stop being a shares and become a fixed deposit. As for public statement by the coy sec and cfo dont forget that they are regulatory required to release any takeover bid received to the public by SEC / NSE rules. whether the bid was assented to by the target company is of no consequence to the regulatory required disclosure

Agbalowomeri:
In summary buy with the mindset of a fundamentalist Lol
Sell with the mindset of a trader

succint summary

stcool:


I appreciate you and Oga robobo contribution on this issue... My mind is rest assured I am on the right course with my investment in DF.

Chief its reciprocal i have had the cause to learn today also from Oga Oracle. We all do everyday and that is what makes us better person every single day that passed by.

robobo:


i dont have the above bolded info (and same is not in public domain) and that is why i called for caution (in anyway i am still sourcing for it also). if i have it then as stated it stop being a shares and become a fixed deposit. As for public statement by the coy sec and cfo dont forget that they are regulatory required to release any takeover bid received to the public by SEC / NSE rules. whether the bid was assented to by the target company is of no consequence to the regulatory required disclosure

Again, u are mixing things up for urself brother. ...but lets forget it.
Like u said before, u are very free to assess things ur way.

Salah.

Yesterday I went searching for info on the previous divestment of Dangote from this company.

Tiger brands bought 63% of the shares of this company at $182m--> $289m for 100% of the company (NB: this is equity value)


Now Olam is offering N130bn enterprise value. This is estimated to be adjusted down equity value of N126bn ($350m) from the calculations on this forum.


Now the question I asked myself is: If Alhaji accepted and equivalence of $289m in 2012 for 100% of the company, why would he reject $350m for the same company in 2019 ( CAGR~3%) after getting the same company back from Tiger Brands in 2015 under very favourable terms (for ~$77m)?

currentprice:





bro we try to know the eps as in PAT ^453b divided by no of outstanding share ^20b

ignore this number because the PAT is wrong

It's clearer now thanks Currentprice

austinkenneth:
Yesterday I went searching for info on the previous divestment of Dangote from this company.

Tiger brands bought 63% of the shares of this company at $182m--> $289m for 100% of the company (NB: this is equity value)


Now Olam is offering N130bn enterprise value. This is estimated to be adjusted down equity value of N126bn ($350m) from the calculations on this forum.


Now the question I asked myself is: If Alhaji accepted and equivalence of $289m in 2012 for 100% of the company, why would he reject $350m for the same company in 2019 ( CAGR~3%) after getting the same company back from Tiger Brands in 2015 under very favourable terms (for ~$77m)?

Now this is hard fact and i love the angle.

its another perspective particularly when he had already sold some part (noodles) even before accepting the $350m which means he is overall getting above $400m for the $77 he invested