RabbiDoracle:

NAHCO closed today at N2.29. Tomorrow is Markdown date.

Tomorrow it will open at N1.99

March 2020 low was N2.00 from investing site.

Sir, kindly re-check your VAP tool.

So Bitcoin, NAHCO are both wrong using your VAP. Remaining your call on Zenith falling to 11+, then 9+.

U really have time for meshpips.
Kindly go back to past submissions and u'll see that some of his post u quoted was made when I advised folks to seize the opportunity of the temporal rise in NAHCO and exit at btw N2.90 to N3.
...then, the dude came up to say that his "almighty" VAP sees great VALUE in NAHCO and that folks should hold and accumulate more.
...I just laughed in Swahili !!

Any Jack should have understood that RISK premium will increase and take a bite on REWARD given the near term worry in the sector where NAHCO operates... which should naturally birth a sentiment that'll favour a drop in price.
I have since advised @ Meshpips to rejig that his VAP tool and refine the model.
He also needs to relate his interpretations in a manner that suites the economic realities within the target company and sector before drawing up inferences.(fundamentals in view)
It should serve him well. ...but as u know; advise when most needed is least headed.

Regards

RabbiDoracle:


N109.5m is less than 1m units o. Hope you are aware?

920,000 UNITS CLOSE TO 1M BRO

RabbiDoracle:


How about 100K units of Fidelity bank? Just N175,000.

The main thing is that once the block volume is achieved, price changes.

Dude thought ur post he quoted then was to give credence to his claims on NEIMETH.
...he doesn't seem to understand.

We can't change the perception of some persons. ...we can only respect their views.

It is well.

ositadima1:


I thought a little about it, it will move only if there is a general consensus, that is, majority of the players in the market at that time should agree to higher price point or else it will drop back in the next few bids.

Ur head don dey come back small small.
...las las u go dey alright !!

RabbiDoracle:


How about 100K units of Fidelity bank? Just N175,000.

The main thing is that once the block volume is achieved, price changes.

Nope! The main thing is that the block volume x price tells a story.

RabbiDoracle:


You can't move market that way. It depends on the news driving the market at that point in time. If the news is bullish, participants will buy up the stocks. Covid19 is causing a rush into health companies. This is a positive news for that sector.

Try and move universal insurance. You will see those that have been trapped for 10 years that want to exit.

So how much would it take to move Neimeth?

RabbiDoracle:


You can buy Zenith at N100. N100 is 26 dollar cents o. I hope you are aware.

If JP Morgan wants to merge with Zenith in a bid to expand into Africa, what do you think the cost of Zenith will be?

Not when GT is trading at a ridiculous trailing price.

And this comparison will be wrong. It won’t be them choosing zenith it will be them trying to choose a bank in Nigeria.

The news was never “Neimeth” has cured Covid.

RabbiDoracle:


Story story!

Most companies in the US used debt to fund share buyback. And that was why Fed is warning that bailout or rescue package money should not be used for buybacks.

If I expect that my revenue will drop and that in turn will affect PAT, I will just buyback as many shares as possible. So that once PAT is released and it is declining compared to the previous quarter/period, the EPS calculations will still give you a higher EPS compared to the previous quarter/period.

Many US banks did it.

“Expect”, meaning they do this before results are announced? don’t think it’s as straightforward as this. This has some mechanisms of insider trading and illegal conundrums, the SEC will knock at doors.

ositadima1:


I thought a little about it, it will move only if there is a general consensus, that is, majority of the players in the market at that time should agree to higher price point or else it will drop back in the next few bids.

The concept of pricing is complex. Can’t look at it that way, because you can’t predict buyers or sellers or people in the market. So then what if people don’t want to sell at that particular price but higher?

You are assuming many people will quickly want to sell at the next increase to crash down price to what it formerly was. This assumption is flawed and not looking at the mass psychology of how humans think and act.

onegentleguy:


Dude thought ur post he quoted then was to give credence to his claims on NEIMETH.
...he doesn't seem to understand.

We can't change the perception of some persons. ...we can only respect their views.

It is well.

OGG if you were so sure of your claims you wouldn’t have started with the GSK and FIDSON comparism which was flawed in the first place and you wouldn’t have used the term “sentimental analysis”.

Oracle has come and you think his analysis will save you? It is still flawed, because you are assuming you know that majority will quickly want to sell into the next price to get out. Nobody knows this. Flawed Logic.

The concept of liquidity is almost the same as the concept of price. You don’t know how many people “will” buy and sell. You might know people who want to, but “want“ is not the same as “happened”.

I want to eat grilled Croaker fish and wash it down with ACB does not mean it will happen. There are so many possibilities on what can happen from there on. I might end up with sardine and cold garri. That is life.

GonFreecss1:


OGG if you were so sure of your claims you wouldn’t have started with the GSK and FIDSON comparism which was flawed in the first place and you wouldn’t have used the term “sentimental analysis”.

Oracle has come and you think his analysis will save you? It is still flawed, because you are assuming you know that majority will quickly want to sell into the next price to get out. Nobody knows this. Flawed Logic.

As I've said before; I can't help u bro !!
Yes the submissions from Ositadima1, Oracle and my humble self are all flawed... while urs is about the best input that has been made on mother earth !!
Once again, u have spoken well.
...u are RIGHT my dear !!

Selah

onegentleguy:


U really have time for meshpips.
Kindly go back to past submissions and u'll see that some of his post u quoted was made when I advised folks to seize the opportunity of the temporal rise in NAHCO and exit at btw N2.90 to N3.
...then, the dude came up to say that his "almighty" VAP sees great VALUE in NAHCO and that folks should hold and accumulate more.
...I just laughed in Swahili !!

Any Jack should have understood that RISK premium will increase and take a bite on REWARD given the near term worry in the sector where NAHCO operates... which should naturally reproduce a sentiment that will favour a drop in price.
I have since advised @ Meshpips to rejig that his VAP tool and refine the model. He also needs to relate it to suite the economic realities within the target company and sector before drawing up inferences.(fundamentals in view)
It should serve him well. ...but as u know; advise when most needed is least headed.

Regards

I don't think he plagiarized your recommendation. He calls it as he sees it.....right or wrong.

Stocks with new 52 week lows
Guinness #14.50k
Triple gee #0.50k
Stock with new 52 week highs
Okomuoil #77.40k

dinyelutochukwu:

Chai...
if you have nothing to do with your money, please buy japaul @20k, you'll be better off.
Leave NAHCO and every other thing that flies.

Don't reach a conclusion based on first ideas. Think it through and consider other options. Their Q1 was not even particularly bad. Has it occurred to you that there are pent up/backlog passenger and cargo traffic that must be processed as soon as scheduled international flights resume? Even with the lock down light parcels are being processed and cleared at international airports and not at seaports? Resumption of domestic flights are imminent and you can bet international flights will follow not long after.

While the mark down tomorrow will see the price go below N2.00 don't expect it to remain there for long.

You also need to look at shareholding structure which is very distinct from Caverton where i believe you are drawing inferences from. That matters a lot in trying to predict price/trade direction

RabbiDoracle:
June 2020 ended with an unexpected decline in my opinion while globally some exchanges must have had positive readings in this same month.

We will see how other months trade.

I'm very optimistic until I see something contrary in the global scene.

Trade/invest safe!

Lol...that's the market for you. Nobody is sure of anything. That's why concepts like "stop loss" "risk management" etc were developed. Its not an exact science.

The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. – Peter Lynch

jamace:
The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. – Peter Lynch

Valid when you enter the stocks with your eyes wide open and not follow recommendations on chat boards blindly without thinking things through. You have to have your own conviction. Otherwise the sh**t will be scared out of you when Mr. Market gyrates after bottles of trophy stout mid-day.

CashDiMkpa:


Valid when you enter the stocks with your eyes wide open and not follow recommendations on chat boards blindly without thinking things through. You have to have your own conviction. Otherwise the sh**t will be scared out of you when Mr. Market gyrates after bottles of trophy stout mid-day.

Gbam @ bolded, otherwise CONFUSION will become your surname.

I noticed Okomu oil is not getting attention in this forum but surprisingly, the stock is moving from strength to strength. Who knows the reason behind recent rally? Any rumor of merger/acquisition or issuance of bonus script?

Ehuatamuigunisi:
I noticed Okomu oil is not getting attention in this forum but surprisingly, the stock is moving from strength to strength. Who knows the reason behind recent rally? Any rumor of merger/acquisition or issuance of bonus script?

I saw okumo oil but why I ignored it is becAuse it’s expensive and it’s not volatile(does not swing)and I guess the recent increase is because of the earnings release
But if u have enough funds please invest in it or Presco( those two good)

I might be wrong
?

BullBearMkt:

...Check my Daily Review of the market on Youtube. I discussed AIICO (and 5 most active stocks today) at end of the video, take a look if it can be helpful, however, sections analysis is good to look at as well - Best Of Luck


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIFWqIq6M4E

Thanks boss. The video is long o but I watched everything. From your analysis, AIICO is poised to dig lower in the long run, therefore a wait for me. I appreciate the effort you put in the analysis.

onegentleguy:


Let me help u.
The way to this is to apply the concept of the TIME VALUE FOR MONEY to know if ur better off collecting the bank loan. There are 2 key lines to verify this:
The 1st scenario is where u work for ur money while the 2nd is where u allow ur money to work for u.

SCENARIO 1;
The 1st thing u need to ask urself is; would that amount I'd receive from the bank/loan firm today be worth what I'd give back in 3 yrs?
Put differently, is the N708,508 I get today really worth the N947,880 i'll pay back in 3 yrs?
The idea is to look to ensure that u got a better VALUE from the "weight" btw the funds borrowed and the interest paid at maturity. That "weight" draws from the risk-reward margin.
Hence, we need estimate the PRESENT VALUE(PV) of that future value(N947,880) u'll pay to the firm at maturity, then compare it to what they're offering u now to see if its truly a worthy move.

Based on the data u provided;
Future value FV= 947,880
Our interest rate p/a will be a peg that's >/= current inflation rate(@12.4%). So r=12.4%= 0.124 while n= 3.
Now using the formula for PRESENT VALUE, PV= FV/[(1+r)^n)]
Therefore PV= 947,880[1/(1+0.124)^3]= 947,880/(1.124)^3...
which should simplify as approx N667,505
So in essence, that N947,880 u'll pay in 3 yrs is actually worth N667,505 today.
The interpretation of this is that the firm is offering u approx N41,000 more than(i.e 708,508 - 667,505) the actual value of what u would naturally get elsewhere based on current economic realities.(raking-off value eroding inflationary risk)
...which makes it a good deal on the surface.
Now let's dig a little more...

SCENARIO 2;
What if u were to invest that monthly remittance u'll be paying to the firm(N23,330.70) on ur own, and compound it over the same 3 yr period? ...more like looking to see if u can get that money u'll derive from ur salary deductions to work for u, rather than borrow and work for the money.
...would it be more valuable?
Again, we need to do an estimate, but this time, it'll be a different formula... the FUTURE VALUE OF ANNUITY WITH CONTINUOUS COMPOUNDING.
The idea is to find out if u would be better off saving that monthly N23,330.70 in a fixed income instrument(say fixed/time deposit) by estimating the future value of that amount in 3 yrs.
Using the formula for future value of annuity with continuous compounding FVa= CF[(e^rt-1)/(e^r-1)]
where CF connotes ur initial cash flow(i.e N23,330.70)
Most banks will offer u btw 5-6% cap on fixed deposit, so we'll equate r as 6%. Hence rate prorated monthly= 6/12=0.5%... so r=0.5%= 0.005
t is the time period= 36 as we have a 3 yr period expanded in months.(i.e 12x3) while e is the Euler's constant.
Therefore, FVa= 23,330.70[(e^0.005x36)-1)/(e^0.005)-1]
Which will simplify as approx 917,945
So FVa=N917,945
The interpretation of this is that ur monthly salary cashflow of N23,330.70 @ 6% interest can have a value power of N917,945 in 3 yrs.
Again, notice how this value is N29,935 less than(i.e 947,880 - 917945) what u would've paid the bank at maturity should u decide to go for the loan.

Hence, since both scenarios shows u are better off collecting the loan, then indeed, u are better off.
...so YES, its a fair deal.
JUST GO COLLECT THE MONEY FROM THE LOAN FIRM my dear !!

NOTE: Ensure u take ur time to read through the T&C of the loan agreement before appending ur signature. Most financial bodies will often include "hidden" clauses that infer additional interest-bearing charges, which could potentially mean that u'll actually have to pay more than that FV peg of N947,880.
If possible, seek the guidance of a reputable investment banker/adviser and/or lawyer/solicitor to help demystify any agreement in context before executing any deal. ...this is VERY IMPORTANT !!
Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

Hopes this helps.

What a nice piece!
Baba, you pass Gentle for this one.

Mcy56:
Banking sector withstood fall in price for the past few trading days.....
Seems they are yielding to the persistent sell pressure........with GTB taking the lead now.


Billtommy, I wasn't expecting you to re-enter the market the time you did, guess you'll have to average down .....

It looks like the best time to average down, I hage stopped looking at my portfolio, will try to get some more funds to average down in stocks that are heavily bleeding. Thanks for looking out mcy...

billtommy:


It looks like the best time to average down, I hage stopped looking at my portfolio, will try to get some more funds to average down in stocks that are heavily bleeding. Thanks for looking out mcy...

Also looking to average down, especially on Guinness but the way the guy just dey fall eh

Yesterday's fall in prices could be as a result of the SEC KYC update deadline of 30th June. Politicians would naturally not want their share account to be linked by BVN and would rather selloff thus the huge sales of yesterday.
If it continues today then we know its something else.

FINALLY we are in JULY the month of CELEBRATION

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

PETERiCHY:
FINALLY we are in JULY the month of CELEBRATION

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

I was expecting you to show face since 29th and 30th of June.
Peterichy is a great guy but I pity the newbies that swallows everything he says hook, line and sinker.

CashDiMkpa:


Don't reach a conclusion based on first ideas. Think it through and consider other options. Their Q1 was not even particularly bad. Has it occurred to you that there are pent up/backlog passenger and cargo traffic that must be processed as soon as scheduled international flights resume? Even with the lock down light parcels are being processed and cleared at international airports and not at seaports? Resumption of domestic flights are imminent and you can bet international flights will follow not long after.

While the mark down tomorrow will see the price go below N2.00 don't expect it to remain there for long.

You also need to look at shareholding structure which is very distinct from Caverton where i believe you are drawing inferences from. That matters a lot in trying to predict price/trade direction

@ The bolded, nothing stays down forever. But market sentiments does not support an immediate up thrust in prices post-mark down, hence my opinion not to tie down funds that could bring higher capital appreciation with the coming bullish phase that we might be entering by next week.

@all,happy new month.
Welcome to the second half of the year 2020.

I strongly believe there will be rise in prices from now to 20th of this month.

If no rise is seen,na to cash out and wait for a bear that will come as a result of poor Q2 results.There will be a new consolidations after the results for the companies that performed well.