CashDiMkpa:


So you now see that the odds were against you winning that trade on Friday and spending that 20k this weekend. Your day scalping or day trade set up failed cos once it does not perform in minutes or intra day it has failed. Scalping may appear like taking random positions but it requires statistical modeling.

Again it's not all stocks that you can successfully do day trading on. FBNH will be a difficult set up cos of its character. You may still win with it but just be aware any day trade or scalping win here is pure luck. Enjoy.

GonFreecss1:


Africa Prudential (Afriprud)

phoinix:


Given that the list traded volume in the last 24 trading days is 4 million units, my small 105k will likely be filled if price gets to 5.2 .

Regarding SEPLAT and FCMB, are you serious? Do you need experience to know that 1.9 is much smaller than 347?

IYGEAL:




It kind of shocked you when you checked. I have a problem with the fact that you had to check.

DrAwo:
If you bought Zenith bank on 01/01/2010 using N100,000 and reinvested all dividends received to buy more zenith bank shares on 01/04 each year, how much would your investment be worth as at 01/04/2020?

talk2me2:
this makes the wohle effort look like a waste of time. N100,000 in 2010 was more valuable than N338,354 today.

DrAwo:

Could as well have been worth much more than that but for the depressed share price in 2020...

talk2me2:
this makes the wohle effort look like a waste of time. N100,000 in 2010 was more valuable than N338,354 today.

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

sincerelymine:


How do you know if your stock is over-valued? When it gives over 100% capital appreciation?

talk2me2:
exactly
I believe in taking your profit when you see it

zimams:
This just brings it home.

Just found out in the past week that I hold 27,000 units of Wema Bank Shares which I bought sometime btwn 2007 and 2008 at N9/share. And I bought Zenith around that same time for N48.05/share, and Japaul at N3.25. Luckily I jumped out of zenith at a loss in 2009. But held on to Wema and Japaul.

Found an Old CSCS statement in my files last week that showed these. Called the stock broking firm I used then, asked for an updated CSCS statement and Alas... the shares were still there..

I felt sick to my stomach. I thought I sold everything then .. when the bubble bursted.

So my Japulian brothers & sisters! I dey inside that bus o! with a terrible entry point....

On a serious a note I wonder if it's really worth it long term... I wish to read some success stories around our NSE. My experience and few others I've read including @Dr.Awo's post isn't encouraging. Short to medium term JIJO suddenly seems like a good idea before weevils decimate person hard earned money.

sincerelymine:


How do you know if your stock is over-valued? When it gives over 100% capital appreciation?

talk2me2:
The problem is not about Dr.Awo's post. Infact I really appreciate his effort takes his time to do those research/analysis and posting them here.

The problem really is that the stock market (especially in an economy like that of nigeria under the current leadership where the currency is devalued at random) on the average does not favour long term investors except of course one controlling intrest (enough intrest to be called to the board of the company).

If the data of a very good company like Zenith bank can be like that in the long term, how about the nse average or the poorly performing companies?

DrAwo:
If you bought Zenith bank on 01/01/2010 using N100,000 and reinvested all dividends received to buy more zenith bank shares on 01/04 each year, how much would your investment be worth as at 01/04/2020?

CashDiMkpa:


This is entirely up to you and how you want to play in the market.

Before you buy a stock you must have done your valuation to know if its over priced at current price level. Assume you valued "Stock A" at N5 in January 2020 but it was trading at N8 and you considered that price too high and decide to wait. Eventually, in March 2020 the market prices it at N3.50 and to you the fundamental are still the same. You buy at N3.50 and suddenly in May 2020 the market decides that the price is now N6.00. You look at the fundamentals again and its still okay and your valuation sheet shows the stock should still not be worth more than N5.00.

What will you do?

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

CashDiMkpa:


That's why holding any stock for ever mindlessly does not make sense. Once the market prices your stock higher than your valuation, why hold on to it? You can sell and buy back later.

Imagine those that sold Zenith at close to N40/share in early 2018 and buying back now. Compare them to those taking N2.50k profit every year since then. Who is better off?

zimams:
This just brings it home.

Just found out in the past week that I hold 27,000 units of Wema Bank Shares which I bought sometime btwn 2007 and 2008 at N9/share. And I bought Zenith around that same time for N48.05/share, and Japaul at N3.25. Luckily I jumped out of zenith at a loss in 2009. But held on to Wema and Japaul.

Found an Old CSCS statement in my files last week that showed these. Called the stock broking firm I used then, asked for an updated CSCS statement and Alas... the shares were still there..

I felt sick to my stomach. I thought I sold everything then .. when the bubble bursted.

So my Japulian brothers & sisters! I dey inside that bus o! with a terrible entry point....

On a serious a note I wonder if it's really worth it long term... I wish to read some success stories around our NSE. My experience and few others I've read including @Dr.Awo's post isn't encouraging. Short to medium term JIJO suddenly seems like a good idea before weevils decimate person hard earned money.

Deadlytruth:

Couldn't have been better said. This market is unpredictable so it is better one plays it by the moment.

talk2me2:
The problem is not about Dr.Awo's post. Infact I really appreciate his effort takes his time to do those research/analysis and posting them here.

The problem really is that the stock market (especially in an economy like that of nigeria under the current leadership where the currency is devalued at random) on the average does not favour long term investors except of course one controlling intrest (enough intrest to be called to the board of the company).

If the data of a very good company like Zenith bank can be like that in the long term, how about the nse average or the poorly performing companies?

RabbiDoracle:


There is a time for everything. A time to rise and a time to fall. When it is time to rise, even if there economy is in shambles, it will keep rising.

In 2016, oil was down to $27, Nigeria was in recession, yet the stock market rise till 2018.

Like 2018 to 2019 ending, even with banks churning out better fundamentals than previous years and paying good dividends, it kept falling.

And this was the same leadership manning the ship.

We have eyes but we don't see. We hardly invest in rigorous research to understand the 'why' of things.