Is Ote$$ still mopping FBNH

currentprice:
Ekuu Mkt o

Please help with the fair value of GTCO and Zenith from your bedsheet??

currentprice:


Boss you too like this stock, I learnt many things from you many months ago when you made post on this stock as stock to buy for capital appreciation . I agree GSK have a very good balance sheet if not the best which I see as a subject of attraction for acquisition/merger in future but this clean balance sheet may not be enough to move the stock to your 15 or above destination for now until they started using the balance sheet to turn out more earnings or on the acquisition news

as at Q3 they have nothing as FCFE... meaning they will struggling to pay dividend at year end or pay from retained earnings as they did in the past.

I will keep monitor the stock to consider should the earnings improve base on the recent Omicron antibody approval for the company

I still prefer Fidson for now, though fidson have much debt but am not bother with their operating earnings with the growth rate

@currentprice,
I'll reply you in a bit, let me round off with a meeting 1st.

In the meantime, try to digest the post below;
(it's from a very smart pal in one of the financial forums I belong to)...

There is insane value in GSK, actually.

What they did in 9months can be considered temporary. In Q1 2021, the global supply chain disruption made it difficult to procure raw materials. Hence, production could not take place and revenue had to dip by 30% YoY.
In the subsequent quarters, as most manufacturing coys experienced, there were significantly high costs that eroded margins.

These seem like a temporary problem.
While the operating performance might currently be under pressure, the market price is really at a steep discount.

If you check the statement of financial position as of 9M 2021

Cash stood at N10bn
Net assets was N8bn

While market value is at N7bn - N7.50 bn
Cash alone is greater than market value (for a coy with zero debt)? Nah...

#END

I already summarized this here in the past. (it explains the part about negative Enterprise Value)
But that is just a part of the value potential in GSK.
will revert once am done with my meeting.

Una well done o..

This place is so quiet sha

Looks like Biden effects also reach this side?

gabscity:
Abeg wetin dey happen to GTB ooo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QG3Q73b-09Y&ab_channel=AriseNews

Zenith Bank Overtakes GTCO In Market Capitalization

onegentleguy:


@currentprice,
I'll reply you in a bit, let me round off with a meeting 1st.

In the meantime, try to digest the post below;
(it's from a very smart pal in one of the financial forums I belong to)...

There is insane value in GSK, actually.

What they did in 9months can be considered temporary. In Q1 2021, the global supply chain disruption made it difficult to procure raw materials. Hence, production could not take place and revenue had to dip by 30% YoY.
In the subsequent quarters, as most manufacturing coys experienced, there were significantly high costs that eroded margins.
These seem like a temporary problem.
While the operating performance might currently be under pressure, the market price is really at a steep discount.
If you check the statement of financial position as of 9M 2021

Cash stood at N10bn
Net assets was N8bn

While market value is at N7bn - N7.50 bn
Cash alone is greater than market value (for a coy with zero debt)? Nah...
#END
I already summarized this here in the past. (it explains the part about negative Enterprise Value)
But that is just a part of the value potential in GSK.
will revert once am done with my meeting.

FCF is the cash left over after a company has paid its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
CASH in the balance sheet such as the N10b includes currency, bank accounts and undeposited checks. this cash balance doesn't mean the company have the cash for unforeseen emergency operating expenses or dividend.

why is the company's "Trade and other payables" 98% of the Total liabilities?

Cashflow is the koko

Rajad:


Please help with the fair value of GTCO and Zenith from your bedsheet??

GTCo 36,50
Zenith 39

it subject to improvement or worse at Financial year report.

Note: it my own bedsheet opinion o. other investors and Mr Mkt may have different opinion

currentprice:


Boss you too like this stock, I learnt many things from you many months ago when you made post on this stock as stock to buy for capital appreciation . I agree GSK have a very good balance sheet if not the best which I see as a subject of attraction for acquisition/merger in future but this clean balance sheet may not be enough to move the stock to your 15 or above destination for now until they started using the balance sheet to turn out more earnings or on the acquisition news

as at Q3 they have nothing as FCFE... meaning they will struggling to pay dividend at year end or pay from retained earnings as they did in the past.

I will keep monitor the stock to consider should the earnings improve base on the recent Omicron antibody approval for the company

I still prefer Fidson for now, though fidson have much debt but am not bother with their operating earnings with the growth rate

@ current price am back now.

On GSK...
1st off , your fear on whether they can pay dividend is not an issue at all.
By convention, companies pay dividends either by using external financing/debt, existing capital (retained earnings, FCFE) or new share issue.
If they have to pay using retained earnings (like they did a yr ago), it is because the combination of the coys CoE (cost of equity) and what they'd wish to pay as dividend (pay out ratio in view) is way more than FCFE. ...and you should know why. (see history of the ∆WC)

But the truth is; Even in the worst case scenario that they don't pay dividend at all, I will still buy more GSK.

You see aside the thing about cash value potential that you now know (NCPS, -EV etc), that coy holds much more promise.

I once said that GSK met no fewer than 7 of my core valuation models. ...these highlights are coined from the KEY value-driven indicators I imployed. There's more!

God help me, I will continue to buy GSK, albeit strategically.
...I hope am wrong at the end of the day.

Interestingly, your VITAFOAM met 2 of the 7 criteria... at the time you 1st mentioned it here.
Don't know what exact price u highlighted it back then, but I remember using 4 of my model to guage VITAFOAM at N6.1 and "I could hear it screaming... buy!"
Didn't have idle funds myself then... but I later bought @ an avg peg of N7.95 for some portfolios I manage.

On FIDSON...

Be careful bro. ...don't get too carried away.
Certain lines in their SCF and BS clearly suggest a value trap!
You might want to dig in on the coys Beneish M Score (A handy financial modeling tool used to investigate whether a coy is manipulating it's earnings)

Regards

currentprice:


FCF is the cash left over after a company has paid its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
CASH in the balance sheet such as the N10b includes currency, bank accounts and undeposited checks. this cash balance doesn't mean the company have the cash for unforeseen emergency operating expenses or dividend.

why is the company's "Trade and other payables" 98% of the Total liabilities?

Cashflow is the koko

Yes I know this bro.
Just used his post to drive home a point. (refer to my post above for more detail)

onegentleguy:


Maybe u haven't come accross or read it but we have always stated it here.

The reason is in the word; EFFICIENCY... which is the ability of management to generate more(net income) from less asset(mainly cash in this case) within a specified timeframe.
GTB does more with fewer asset than ZENITH with a higher asset base.
The interpretation of this is that GTB as an entity can well generate(NPM/RoIC) a little more Naira than ZENITH assuming they were given an equal asset base.
...put differently, assuming u gave an equal amount of fund(say N10) to both banks, the former can erk out more profit(say 20k) at a faster pace than the latter, ceteris peribus.
So by implication, if GTB can deliver more in time, then they are clearly more EFFICIENT !!(time value for money in view)
Thats why GTB has historically had a better ROE, AER and CGPR than ZENITH BANK !!

There's a strong level of belief attached to that part in bold. which explains why as an investor, u would likely be inclined to take up an equity stake in the former at higher pricing.
...hence the price premium between both coys.

Btw, I think that part of ur post in bold is incorrect. Historically, GTB has overall, delivered more in cooperate actions(dividend cash flow, script issue) than ZENITH. So u might want to check ur record again.
Things might change in future though. But for now, it is what it is !!

Regards

currentprice:


GTCo 36,50
Zenith 39

it subject to improvement or worse at Financial year report.

Note: it my own bedsheet opinion o. other investors and Mr Mkt may have different opinion

You have spoken well.

A few things are beginning to change about the post above. (P2P weighting in view)
The signs were there, beginning from H1/Q2 2021.

Selah

onegentleguy:


@ current price am back now.

On GSK...
1st off , your fear on whether they can pay dividend is not an issue at all.
By convention, companies pay dividends either by using external financing/debt, existing capital (retained earnings, FCFE) or new share issue.
If they have to pay using retained earnings (like they did a yr ago), it is because the combination of the coys CoE (cost of equity) and what they'd wish to pay as dividend (pay out ratio in view) is way more than FCFE. ...and you should know why. (see history of the ∆WC)

But the truth is; Even in the worst case scenario that they don't pay dividend at all, I will still buy more GSK.

You see aside the thing about cash value potential that you now know (NCPS, -EV etc), that coy holds much more promise.

I once said that GSK met no fewer than 7 of my core valuation models. ...these highlights are coined from the KEY value-driven indicators I imployed. There's more!

God help me, I will continue to buy GSK, albeit strategically.
...I hope am wrong at the end of the day.

Interestingly, your VITAFOAM met 2 of the 7 criteria... at the time you 1st mentioned it here.
Don't know what exact price u highlighted it back then, but I remember using 4 of my model to guage VITAFOAM at N6.1 and "I could hear it screaming... buy!"
Didn't have idle funds myself then... but I later bought @ an avg peg of N7.95 for some portfolios I manage.

On FIDSON...

Be careful bro. ...don't get too carried away.
Certain lines in their SCF and BS clearly suggest a value trap!
You might want to dig in on the coys Beneish M Score (A handy financial modeling tool used to investigate whether a coy is manipulating it's earnings)

Regards

In the same vein, using a few of these models and I can see that coys like...
IB, COURTVILLE, CHAMS, PZ, NGXG, WAPCO are really underpriced.
With some even grossly undervalued. ...especially the select few names I highlighted in the INS sector. (STI, LINKAGE, REGAL ROYALEX, CHI, WAPIC, MBENEFIT, PRESTIGE and VERITAS)

But only time can help set matters straight.

It is well.

Mercy how you dey? Abeg show

Mercy , hope you are good.

onegentleguy:


Yes I know this bro.
Just used his post to drive home a point. (refer to my post above for more detail)

I believe u boss, it just to remind the pal in the financial forum u mention

Gsk have great balance sheet as I mentioned earlier but what is the essence of buying a great assets/liabilities that will be procuring negative earnings or eps of 10k when Fidson with debt produce over N1 Eps

forget about the current gbelo gbebo or the fairprice for now rather continue researching for the stock that will surprise the mkt and put on your watch list


_{^{make u na take note....it my own opinion o}}

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currentprice:


I believe u boss, it just to remind the pal in the financial forum u mention

Gsk have great balance sheet as I mentioned earlier but what is the essence of buying a great assets/liabilities that will be procuring negative earnings or eps of 10k when Fidson with debt produce over N1 Eps

It's alright @ current price. ...I do understand your concern.

Think I've tried to put certain lines about the financials of GSK and FIDSON in the light.

Again, earnings does not tell the whole story. ...infact, it tells only a little if you desire to effectively check in on the value-driven potential in a coy.
Which is why the income statement (which houses a coys earnings stand) is of a much less importance when compared to the BS and SCF. ...there's a good reason for that.
I have always said this much.

But let's just continue to align with what we believe in and believe in what we align with. Time will take care of the rest.

Do take care of you bro.
Regards

onegentleguy:


It's alright @ current price. ...I do understand your concern.

Think I've tried to put certain lines about the financials of GSK and FIDSON in the light.

Again, earnings does not tell the whole story. ...infact, it tells only a little if you desire to effectively check in on the value-driven potential in a coy.
Which is why the income statement (which houses a coys earnings stand) is of a much less importance when compared to the BS and SCF. ...there's a good reason for that.
I have always said this much.

But let's just continue to align with what we believe in and believe in what we align with. Time will take care of the rest.

Do take care of you bro.
Regards

Interesting stuff, though, I see a lot of abbreviations, guess most of it is domain knowledge.

I guess a stock remains undervalued until the market sees what you see. In other words, if ur valuation methods are too complex or unpopular, the stock will remain untapped until it starts showing the more popular signs.

If so, one should also consider the time value of money.

https://www.nairaland.com/6887406/efcc-declares-mba-forex-owner#108339839

MBA FOREX Owner declared wanted by EFCC

I'd like to diversify huge into 2-3 NSE stocks with principal interest on stocks with high and consistent dividend payout.

I'm not so particular about high risk stocks with huge potential price appreciation short term, I prefer a good dividend paying coy stock that I can hold for the next 5 years with great potential long term.

Here's my pick based on the insights gleaned after reading some posts here:

GTCO
Access
Stanbic
Dangote Sugar

Are these the best stock based on the metric I seek?

Please OGs in the house, help recommend

Myc5, locodemy, Emmanuel, osita

sonofElElyon:
https://www.nairaland.com/6887406/efcc-declares-mba-forex-owner#108339839

MBA FOREX Owner declared wanted by EFCC

One year after. They just gave him enough time to run and hide very well, and probably even change his identity in some foreign land before declaring him wanted.
Long and short, invest wisely and never be too greedy. 30% everymonth promise is not beans. Let the investor go and invest for his family members

.

currentprice:


Boss you too like this stock, I learnt many things from you many months ago when you made post on this stock as stock to buy for capital appreciation . I agree GSK have a very good balance sheet if not the best which I see as a subject of attraction for acquisition/merger in future but this clean balance sheet may not be enough to move the stock to your 15 or above destination for now until they started using the balance sheet to turn out more earnings or on the acquisition news

as at Q3 they have nothing as FCFE... meaning they will struggling to pay dividend at year end or pay from retained earnings as they did in the past.

I will keep monitor the stock to consider should the earnings improve base on the recent Omicron antibody approval for the company

I still prefer Fidson for now, though fidson have much debt but am not bother with their operating earnings with the growth rate

Fidson has been going up and up for months. Hence i feel one might not want to enter it's train at the current price.
Unlike gsk that is currently at the bottom of a zigzag regime.

Jenny008:
I prefer a good dividend paying coy stock that I can hold for the next 5 years with great potential long term.

if the bolded is really your target, then Zenith should come first, followed by GTB and Access.
Going by market price and past dividend payments, Zenith's dividend yield is the best, closely followed by GTB. Access Bank dividend yield is just average, but the Capital appreciation may make up for the shortcoming in the medium term.

currentprice:
forget about the current gbelo gbebo or the fairprice for now rather continue researching for the stock that will surprise the mkt and put on your watch list

^{_{Rain will still fall more before we see a long bullish mkt again}}

_{^{make u na take note....it my own opinion o}}

Wapco
Wapco
Wapco
Correct me if I'm wrong...

currentprice:
forget about the current gbelo gbebo or the fairprice for now rather continue researching for the stock that will surprise the mkt and put on your watch list

^{_{Rain will still fall more before we see a long bullish mkt again}}

_{^{make u na take note....it my own opinion o}}

Yes I agree with you here.I know just 2 stocks that will do a big magic in 2022.
I don't believe in 101 stock recommendations now.

Salvationone:
Mercy , hope you are good.

zionaigbokhan:
Mercy how you dey? Abeg show

I dey ooo. A hectic time for Mcy but God is alive.
Thanks so much. God bless you real good.

@currentprice, thanks bro. Really appreciate.

Oga Wanaj0 many thanks sir. More of God's blessings IJN.

Good morning.

FBNH
The billionaires are not yet done on its case......
Over N5B staked on it yesterday alone.......
I told someone that the result will have little or no
negative impact on the share price because the current level of operating don pass result level for now.

If stating my personal opinion will make me to be tagged e-warrior, well, so be it. Na una sabi. Not a must for me to agree with everyone else's opinion on certain matter or stocks.

We are awaiting the next phase of the billionaires' drama........more accumulation still ongoing.

For me, FBNH is a "Hold"

Seems some key stocks are taking their turns of 10 maximum losses and rebound the next day. Few days ago it was Wapco, today it's UACN and DangCem. Grab your copies at the bottom

Jenny008:
I'd like to diversify huge into 2-3 NSE stocks with principal interest on stocks with high and consistent dividend payout.
I prefer a good dividend paying coy stock that I can hold for the next 5 years with great potential long term.
Here's my pick based on the insights gleaned after reading some posts here:

GTCO, Access, Stanbic,Dangote Sugar
Myc5, locodemy, Emmanuel, osita

My Oga already answered you.....
There are quite some stocks to consider really but if you're looking at diversifying, maybe a mix of other sector will be great too.

These stocks, in addition to the ones Oga Kolaish listed (Zee, GTB, Access), are good for consideration too........Wapco, Ucap, Custodian. Dangsugar and Stanbic not bad too, only time your entry right.

Remember you have to discipline yourself because what you're planning to do is called "Long term investing", not the one you'll be looking at daily upandan of prices and be coming to blame when the prices are down o.

Las las I don give you my own opinion. Do your Due Dilligence.