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A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West - Politics (3) - Nairaland

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Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by adaweezy(m): 10:18pm On Jan 15, 2015
y
maestroferddi:
I will not go partisan as you are clearly doing.

What exactly do you mean by the assertion that Ambode reduced Lagos dependence on oil?

Was Ambode doubling as the Commissioners for Finance and that of Budget and Economic Planning as well as the Accountant General?

Were you implying that because of Ambode's ingenuity, Lagos stopped collecting Abuja allocations?

Agbaje can argue that he was an employer of labour via his pharmaceutical concern.
Ambode has been successful in the private and public sector having published two books and numerous papers on Finance and management (Check his LinkedIn profile) and his Brandsmiths career
the AG has more access to the states financial management because he is the number 1 financial officer all others are secondary
To compare Agbaje And Ambode is like comparing Ki
a with Ford
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by adaweezy(m): 10:24pm On Jan 15, 2015
maestroferddi:
Well, one expects that you should be able to make the progress of graduating to an objective commenter than speaking like an impassioned football fan.

The degree of fallacious statements you are throwing all over the place is worrisome.

So being a pharmacist precludes Mr Agbaje from having the potentials for a seasoned administrator? You are joking, aren't you?


I am not sure that Mr Ambode attended Wharton. Pls let us know the qualification he got from the institution.

you just nailed it "Experimenting"....
would you experiment with a new Wig (Lawyer) ??
if on a death row.
and he did attend wharton.......Akinwunmi is an alumnus of Wharton Business School Advance Management Programme. He has attended courses at several renowned institutions including Cranfield School of Management, Cranfield, England, the Institute of Management Development Lausanne, Switzerland, INSEAD Singapore and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Boston, USA. He holds a Master degree in Accounting (Financial Management) and a B.Sc. degree in Accounting from the University of Lagos; a Hubert Humphrey Fellow in Accounting and Finance from Boston University, Boston, USA. He is also a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN).
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 10:32pm On Jan 15, 2015
adaweezy:

you just nailed it "Experimenting"....
would you experiment with a new Wig (Lawyer) ??
if on a death row.
and he did attend wharton.......Akinwunmi is an alumnus of Wharton Business School Advance Management Programme. He has attended courses at several renowned institutions including Cranfield School of Management, Cranfield, England, the Institute of Management Development Lausanne, Switzerland, INSEAD Singapore and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Boston, USA. He holds a Master degree in Accounting (Financial Management) and a B.Sc. degree in Accounting from the University of Lagos; a Hubert Humphrey Fellow in Accounting and Finance from Boston University, Boston, USA. He is also a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN).
You are talking like a typical football fan.

I will do a finding on what is and what is not.

You make me laugh. So a pharmacist is now a chronic "experimenter" just because he works with substances in his line of calling.

Una no go kill person. LOL.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Nobody: 10:34pm On Jan 15, 2015
Junk analysis only fit for the trash bin!
angry

#GMB 2019
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by mrmetoo1: 10:41pm On Jan 15, 2015
maestroferddi:
Well, one expects that you should be able to make the progress of graduating to an objective commenter than speaking like an impassioned football fan.

The degree of fallacious statements you are throwing all over the place is worrisome.

So being a pharmacist precludes Mr Agbaje from having the potentials for a seasoned administrator? You are joking, aren't you?

I am not sure that Mr Ambode attended Wharton. Pls let us know the qualification he got from the institution.

What fallacious statements? No one is saying Agbaje doesn't have the right to run. My guy you have the right to run. My argument is Ambode is more qualified than him, he has the power of the incumbency behind him, he's running a better campaign better than him appealing both to the elites and the masses.

You keep talking like I'm not giving you reasons why I'm supporting him. I've listed the reasons in every response I've given you, I'm starting to sound like a scratched CD or depending on your age, a broken record. Now if I was just a party guy and I don't care about the quality of the candidate they put forward then that's different. Ambode is obviously a very smart guy.
"During this programme Ambode had professional internships at The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, the Cabinet Office of Administration and Finance (Governor’s Office), City of Boston Treasury Office as well as with the World Bank and IMF." - culled from his biography
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Nobody: 11:00pm On Jan 15, 2015
maestroferddi:
One of the determinants of maturity and civility is the ability to make one's point(s) with taking the easy road of hurling invectives.

A civilised way would have been to ask for clarification on an assertion that didn't sit well with you...
U cooked up stories and based ur 'informed opinion' on it and u expect me not to call u a TANOID? I ask again, were u there when Tinubu asked Jonathan to make sure Dosunmu emerges the PDP candidate in 2011? What do u call someone who believes PDP will get majority votes in Lagos state despite the bitterness of most Lagosians towards Jonathan?
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Caseless: 11:01pm On Jan 15, 2015
most watery analysis ever!
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Jokay07(m): 11:17pm On Jan 15, 2015
maestroferddi:
Jonathan won the SW convincingly in 2011, this analysis is only giving him a marginal victory in 2015.

Structures win elections and not propaganda and campaign ground turn-outs.
Yes brother and it would be a total act of ignorance to evaluate last year presidential's results with the upcoming presidential election, what Op stated can't work in the western states. The yorubas political structure is so independent and strong. These people don't vote based on any religiout or tribal line, if not Jonathan wouldn't have won 5 out of 6 states and that throws a question as to why the Yorubas ignored Tinubu who is a yoruba and Tunde Bakare.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by masseratti: 11:33pm On Jan 15, 2015
maestroferddi:
You are obviously allowing emotion and primordial sentiments to compromise your ability to critically appraise issues.
please have you visit those states?if not,please don't talk about what you don't know anything about,if the election is not rigged Gej can't get 20% in those states,its words in the street.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 11:59pm On Jan 15, 2015
Aloralord1:

U cooked up stories and based ur 'informed opinion' on it and u expect me not to call u a TANOID? I ask again, were u there when Tinubu asked Jonathan to make sure Dosunmu emerges the PDP candidate in 2011? What do u call someone who believes PDP will get majority votes in Lagos state despite the bitterness of most Lagosians towards Jonathan?
I shouldn't be spelling everything out for you, should I?

It was very clear that the PDP did not keenly vie for the Lagos guber in 2011. The circumstances that threw up Dr Ade Dosunmu was indicative of the party's trajectory. There was no how PDP could have fielded Dosunmu if they seriously wanted to challenge Fashola's re-election.

If there were no understanding, please tell us why the Nuhu Ribadu and Fola Adeola combo could win only one state in the SW despite the fact Bola Tinubu was calling the shots in the region.

It is commonplace for parties to seek a strategic objectives in guber elections. It happened in Edo, Anambra and so on.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 12:02am On Jan 16, 2015
*Deleted Repetition*
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 12:03am On Jan 16, 2015
masseratti:
please have you visit those states?if not,please don't talk about what you don't know anything about,if the election is not rigged Gej can't get 20% in those states,its words in the street.
The same words were in the streets when Mimiko achieved re-election and Fayose displaced an incumbent governor.

Make we hear word, abeg.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Freelancer00(m): 12:07am On Jan 16, 2015
ddazz:
I wonder why you guys still miraculously claim that Jonathan /PDP will win Lagos State.

Hell will have to freeze over before Tinubu/APC will lose a major election in Lagos State.Tinubu has got Lagos on the lock down.

Don't put any stock in all the noise making PDP is engaging in. Bode George cannot and I repeat cannot and has never delivered his polling unit to PDP.
You just spoke my mind. Tinubu doesn't mind losing the presidential election for Lagos state. PDP should just forget
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 12:15am On Jan 16, 2015
Freelancer00:
You just spoke my mind. Tinubu doesn't mind losing the presidential election for Lagos state. PDP should just forget
Lagos will be, at worst, too close to call for the PDP.

If they lose, it would be marginal.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Nobody: 2:36am On Jan 16, 2015
maestroferddi:
Jonathan won the SW convincingly in 2011, this analysis is only giving him a marginal victory in 2015.

Structures win elections and not propaganda and campaign ground turn-outs.

Yeah, paper politics. Nigerian politics is different, I am not sure whether this is applicable to SW but for SW it is different.

For example, Ekiti state as the strongest PDP stronghold in SW, does not mean PDP would win its presidential election, it may or may not. Do not be too certain.

And please do not ask me why- I don't know whether or not it is a political secret. undecided
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by softwareman(m): 2:43am On Jan 16, 2015
maestroferddi:
You are funny, aren't you.

What exactly do you mean by track record?

From facts on ground, Mr Ambode spent some 27 years in the civil service culminating as the state's former Accountant-General while Mr Agbaje has decades of experience as an entrepreneur in the private sector.

So what sayest thou?
Going by your thinking 27 years experience in the private sector running a chemist surpasses 27 years experience in the PUBLIC SECTOR?
!
NONSENSE CANNOT GET MORE ARRANT THAN YOUR LOGIC

1 Like

Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by softwareman(m): 3:03am On Jan 16, 2015
maestroferddi:
I shouldn't be spelling everything out for you, should I?

It was very clear that the PDP did not keenly vie for the Lagos guber in 2011. The circumstances that threw up Dr Ade Dosunmu was indicative of the party's trajectory. There was no how PDP could have fielded Dosunmu if they seriously wanted to challenge Fashola's re-election.

If there were no understanding, please tell us why the Nuhu Ribadu and Fola Adeola combo could win only one state in the SW despite the fact Bola Tinubu was calling the shots in the region.

It is commonplace for parties to seek a strategic objectives in guber elections. It happened in Edo, Anambra and so on.
But did PDP keenly contested the elections of 1999, 2003, 2007 ?
IF THEY COULD NOT WIN A SINGLE STATE ASSEMBLY IN THIS ELECTIONS WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THEY HAVE THE GRASSROOTS SUPPORT IN THE STATE TO SPRING A SURPRISE IN 2015.?
MOST OF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS OF LAGOS POLITICS. PLEASE GO AND CHECK THE RECORDS. ALL THE SO CALLED PDP HEAVYWEIGHTS IN LAGOS , LIKE BODE GEORGE HAVE MEVER WON IN THEIR WARDS SINCE 1999.

You mentioned Riyadh and cola adeola, but you knew that clearly before that election that it was certain that a vote for that ticket was GOING TO BE WASTED. ACN WAS NOT IN SERIOUS CONTENTION FOR THAT ELECTION.
IT WAS WHEN AN ALLIANCE TALK BROKE DOWN BETWEEN THE THEN ACN AND CPC, THAT VIRTUALLY MADE JOMATHAN THE ONLY VIABLE OPTION IN THAT ELECTION.

YOU SPOKE OF STRATEGIC ALLIANCE. YOU FORGOT THAT THE SENATORIAL AMD HOUSE OF REPS ELECTION TOOK PLACE A WEEK BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL AND THE THE ACN SWEPT THE POLLS 100 PERCENT.

YOU SHOULD GO AND CAREFULLY STUDY LAGOS POLITICS.

THE PROGRESSIVES WILL ALWAYS WIN HANDS DOWN UNLESS THEY DECIDE TO SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION AS WAS THE CASE OF OTEDOLA IN 1993 AND JONATHAN IN 2011.
JONATHAN WON LAGOS IN 2011 WITH MAJORITY OF TUEN ACN VOTES.

, PDP DO NOT THE VOTES IN LAGOS TO MAKE ANYBODY WIN A LOCAL GOVT ELECTION TALKLESS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!!

1 Like

Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Olaone1: 5:32am On Jan 16, 2015
olapluto:

As a resident of Oyo state, I read your analysis and was shaking my head.
PDP is pseudo-dead in Oyo state. If you go on Youtube to watch Jonathan's campaign at Mapo hall, you will see what I mean. The movers and shakers of Oyo Politics as of today were all absent. PDP in Oyo state is as good as dead. Am glad you actually did not include the PDP guber candidate in your analysis.
How GEJ will fare in Oyo state...poorly.
Objective analysis:
1. The votes in Oyo state can be broadly split into Ibadan, Oyo and Oke Ogun. Oyo town and Oke Ogun, including the 7 Ibarapa are most likely going to vote en masse for Buhari. Oke Ogun can be likened to Iwo in terms of religion, with a culture similar to that of the North. The fact that GEJ played religious card all through will make it hard for him to get 20% of Oke Ogun votes.
Oyo and Saki axis will be for BUhari.
Ibadan is the GEJ's only hope of any few votes he will get. I think GEJ will do very well to get anything above 30% of Oyo state votes. In Osun, GEJ will not get up to 20%.
I really want to know, please: who's gonna win the guber race in Oyo state? And, which party do you think will win the 6 local govts in Ibadan? And the 5 less city local govts?

Waiting................. undecided
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Olaone1: 5:33am On Jan 16, 2015
mrmetoo1:


You're not going partisan but you're telling me a pharmacist is better well equipped to run a state like Lagos than someone with all that experience.

Then what's wrong with being partisan, why's that a dirty word? The fact is I feel that my candidate is more qualified than yours and I've provided my reasons for that. If I didn't have any good reasons then you can throw in being partisan. If say a zoo keeper was running as Lagos state governor against Agbaje and I'm supporting the zoo keeper just because he belongs to a party then that's being partisan.

The fact is Ambode has the necessary experience and qualifications. Then the fact that he's a Wharton graduate is very impressive to me.

All these Wharton....Harvard 10-day executive programmes mean nothing abeg.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Olaone1: 5:39am On Jan 16, 2015
softwareman:

Going by your thinking 27 years experience in the private sector running a chemist surpasses 27 years experience in the PUBLIC SECTOR?
!
NONSENSE CANNOT GET MORE ARRANT THAN YOUR LOGIC
Who cares about civil service experience when casting vote?
What civil service experience did Tinubu have before he became governor? Did he not perform well?

Going by your logic, Nigerians should have voted Olu Falae as president in 1999 and not Obasanjo just because of Falae's experience in civil service.
Do you actually think running a business is moin moin........especially in Nigeria?
Abegiiiii undecided
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by mrmetoo1: 5:48am On Jan 16, 2015
Olaone1:

All these Wharton....Harvard 10-day executive programmes mean nothing abeg.

If you say so
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Carmal90(m): 6:45am On Jan 16, 2015
olapluto:

Oke Ogun is on lockdown for Buhari for sure. Ibadan seems to be tilting towards Buhari, though I have to confess that GEJ will still get about 30% of Ibadan votes. If GEJ can buy Ladoja, he might increase his % votes in Ibadan because Ibadan is very 'accord' right now
Pls who told you gej will not buy ladoja?there is an agreement between ladoja and gej presently... Ladoja will win the governor and gej will win oro state...

1 Like

Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by adaweezy(m): 7:16am On Jan 16, 2015
maestroferddi:
You are talking like a typical football fan.

I will do a finding on what is and what is not.

You make me laugh. So a pharmacist is now a chronic "experimenter" just because he works with substances in his line of calling.

Una no go kill person. LOL.
am talking about experimenting with management / Governance!!
what's my business if his business can't go past a one shop pharmacy??
I don't watch /follow football sorry to disappoint you.
You seem to avoid the fact that Jimi Agbaje is not competent and it is a verifiable fact
A new Wig does mostly theoretical things just before becoming a lawyer... he has little or no practical management skills.
mildly Put Jimi Agbaje has no Requisite experience for the Job at hand

1 Like

Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by adaweezy(m): 7:17am On Jan 16, 2015
Olaone1:

Who cares about civil service experience when casting vote?
What civil service experience did Tinubu have before he became governor? Did he not perform well?

Going by your logic, Nigerians should have voted Olu Falae as president in 1999 and not Obasanjo just because of Falae's experience in civil service.
Do you actually think running a business is moin moin........especially in Nigeria?
Abegiiiii undecided
Tinubu was a senator before then, don't show your lack of knowledge on public forums

1 Like

Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 7:34am On Jan 16, 2015
Olaone1:

All these Wharton....Harvard 10-day executive programmes mean nothing abeg.
My guy, these chaps are plain ridiculous!

When you follow the reasoning and perception of some of these guys, you just wonder...
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 7:36am On Jan 16, 2015
Olaone1:

Who cares about civil service experience when casting vote?
What civil service experience did Tinubu have before he became governor? Did he not perform well?

Going by your logic, Nigerians should have voted Olu Falae as president in 1999 and not Obasanjo just because of Falae's experience in civil service.
Do you actually think running a business is moin moin........especially in Nigeria?
Abegiiiii undecided
Make him think!

He badly needs to...
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 7:41am On Jan 16, 2015
adaweezy:

Tinubu was a senator before then, don't show your lack of knowledge on public forums
Agbaje can also deploy the Abraham Lincoln paradigm of gathering experience through perseverance.

I am sure your rhetoric will change were Mr Agbaje to throw up a constructed a resume to the public domain.

Who doesn't know to include a vacation in the US as part of a resume?
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Olaone1: 7:42am On Jan 16, 2015
adaweezy:

Tinubu was a senator before then, don't show your lack of knowledge on public forums
You are in my prayers undecided
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 7:44am On Jan 16, 2015
mrmetoo1:


If you say so
He is not saying so, he knows so.

I am sure that, as usual, the qualifications being bandied about would be refuted.
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Olaone1: 7:46am On Jan 16, 2015
maestroferddi:
Agbaje can also deploy the Abraham Lincoln paradigm of gathering experience through perseverance.

I am sure your rhetoric will change when Mr Agbaje throws up a constructed a resume to the public domain.

Who doesn't know to include a vacation in the US as part of a resume?
Don't mind him. He belongs to the same party that asked us to vote Ribadu as president just 4 years ago. He also needs to tell us about Ribadu's experience in politics or civil service.


The same party that presented Fayemi. Maybe he was a senator too before he ruled Ekiti state. Ahhh, nah, his retort would be: "Ekiti is a small state." So cutting undecided
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 7:53am On Jan 16, 2015
/quote]These predictions were made having taken certain key factors into consideration.

But trust some of my SW brothers, they normally allow sentiments to taint their outlook...
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by mrmetoo1: 7:54am On Jan 16, 2015
maestroferddi:
He is not saying so, he knows so.

I am sure that, as usual, the qualifications being bandied about would be refuted.

I know I haven't said anything that has been proven to be false yet so until then I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. When/if the time comes that it's proven that the qualifications are false, I'll come out and admit I was fooled. What I'm not going to say is base my argument on ifs and maybes

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