softwareman:

But did PDP keenly contested the elections of 1999, 2003, 2007 ?
IF THEY COULD NOT WIN A SINGLE STATE ASSEMBLY IN THIS ELECTIONS WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THEY HAVE THE GRASSROOTS SUPPORT IN THE STATE TO SPRING A SURPRISE IN 2015.?
MOST OF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS OF LAGOS POLITICS. PLEASE GO AND CHECK THE RECORDS. ALL THE SO CALLED PDP HEAVYWEIGHTS IN LAGOS , LIKE BODE GEORGE HAVE MEVER WON IN THEIR WARDS SINCE 1999.

You mentioned Riyadh and cola adeola, but you knew that clearly before that election that it was certain that a vote for that ticket was GOING TO BE WASTED. ACN WAS NOT IN SERIOUS CONTENTION FOR THAT ELECTION.
IT WAS WHEN AN ALLIANCE TALK BROKE DOWN BETWEEN THE THEN ACN AND CPC, THAT VIRTUALLY MADE JOMATHAN THE ONLY VIABLE OPTION IN THAT ELECTION.

YOU SPOKE OF STRATEGIC ALLIANCE. YOU FORGOT THAT THE SENATORIAL AMD HOUSE OF REPS ELECTION TOOK PLACE A WEEK BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL AND THE THE ACN SWEPT THE POLLS 100 PERCENT.

YOU SHOULD GO AND CAREFULLY STUDY LAGOS POLITICS.

THE PROGRESSIVES WILL ALWAYS WIN HANDS DOWN UNLESS THEY DECIDE TO SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION AS WAS THE CASE OF OTEDOLA IN 1993 AND JONATHAN IN 2011.
JONATHAN WON LAGOS IN 2011 WITH MAJORITY OF TUEN ACN VOTES.

, PDP DO NOT THE VOTES IN LAGOS TO MAKE ANYBODY WIN A LOCAL GOVT ELECTION TALKLESS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!!

Completely subjective analysis.

So your so-called progressive forces coalesced to hand victory to Michael Otedola in lieu of one of their own Dapo Sarumi in the botched Third Republic?

Funnily put together...

CC: aljharem; idumuose,pendy97,gbawe,ilugunboy,publisher,firefire

Caseless:
most watery analysis ever!

Let's have your "meaty" analysis, please.

Olaone1:

Who cares about civil service experience when casting vote?
What civil service experience did Tinubu have before he became governor? Did he not perform well?

Going by your logic, Nigerians should have voted Olu Falae as president in 1999 and not Obasanjo just because of Falae's experience in civil service.
Do you actually think running a business is moin moin........especially in Nigeria?
Abegiiiii

Thanks for attesting to the fact that Tinubu performed very well and beyond satisfactory during his tenure.


So why are you advocating for the change of the performing team?

maestroferddi:
Agbaje can also deploy the Abraham Lincoln paradigm of gathering experience through perseverance.

I am sure your rhetoric will change were Mr Agbaje to throw up a constructed a resume to the public domain.

Who doesn't know to include a vacation in the US as part of a resume?

You are just hating on competence and drawing upon the plausibility of a shaky sentiment selling a particular candidate

Olaone1:

You are in my prayers

Actually you need it more

adaweezy:

You are just hating on competence and drawing upon the plausibility of a shaky sentiment selling a particular candidate

Are you a comedian?

What do you understand by competence? So Mr Agbaje who is an employer of labour via his business outfit is not competent?

I am not selling any candidate. I am only trying to quash the prejudices driven by propaganda that you guys have against Mr Agbaje.

maestroferddi:

/quote]These predictions were made having taken certain key factors into consideration.

But trust some of my SW brothers, they normally allow sentiments to taint their outlook...

uh right like they did for Obasanjo with his public service record in 1999 like he was there brother
Beautifully composed nonsense

maestroferddi:
Are you a comedian?

What do you understand by competence? So Mr Agbaje who is an employer of labour via his business outfit is not competent?

how many people did he employ......
how did he affect lagos state generally ??
what's the difference between Jaykay pharmacies and Brandsmiths Consulting company that ambode set up compare their staff strenght...
Abeg call a spade a spade not just a farm tool

adaweezy:
uh right like they did for Obasanjo with his public service record in 1999 via he was there problem
Beautifully composed nonsense

You don't add up, do you?

Obasanjo, largely seen as a contraption of the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy, was pitted against a NADECO chieftain Chief Olu Falae in 1999.

Do you get it now?

maestroferddi:
Are you a comedian?

What do you understand by competence? So Mr Agbaje who is an employer of labour via his business outfit is not competent?

I am not selling any candidate. I am only trying to quash the prejudices driven by propaganda that you guys have against Mr Agbaje.

like this

maestroferddi:
You don't add up, do you?

Obasanjo, largely seen as a contraption of the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy, was pitted against a NADECO chieftain Chief Olu Falae in 1999.

Do you get it now?

that's why he lost his polling unit

maestroferddi:
You may be jumping the gun.

It could be that Mr Agbaje wants the mega rallies of both parties to come and go before hitting the road.

Oga, if JK wants to win this election, he needs to step up, Ambode and APC have really gone to the grassroots this time.

1wolex85:

Oga, if JK wants to win this election, he needs to step up, Ambode and APC have really gone to the grassroots this time.

I am sure that Mr Agbaje's campaign team does not expect the keys to Government House Alausa to be handed to him without doing the needful.

It might just be too early to draw conclusions...

adaweezy:

that's why he lost his polling unit

He was confident of victory knowing that there was no how the SW was going to stop him. The rest of the country backing him.

maestroferddi:
You have to be wrong on FFK.

Granted that he has a proclivity for being cantankerous, but one thing even his traducers agree on is his wit.

He also epitomises a generational change from the status quo. You don't trifle with a man fighting to prove a point...

guy please stop this thing, ffk has no influence whatsoever in osun.

maestroferddi:
Completely subjective analysis.

So your so-called progressive forces coalesced to hand victory to Michael Otedola in lieu of one of their own Dapo Sarumi in the botched Third Republic?

Funnily put together...

CC: aljharem; idumuose,pendy97,gbawe,ilugunboy,publisher,firefire

there was a contest between sarumi and agbalajobi, because of the rancour, sdp chose a neutral person; yomi edu, who didnt have any grassroot support, that was why otedola won.

1wolex85:

guy please stop this thing, ffk has no influence whatsoever in osun.

February 14 will lay most things bare...

1wolex85:

there was a contest between sarumi and agbalajobi, because of the rancour, sdp chose a neutral person; yomi edu, who didnt have any grassroot support, that was why otedola won.

Conspiracy theories.

maestroferddi:
Conspiracy theories.

this is not conspiracy or anything, yomi edu was the candidate for sdp not sarumi or agbalajobi, its fact not theory.
you can read this link if you have the time

http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/04/03/tinubu-nigerias-most-influential-politician-says-lai-mohammed/

Olaone1:

Don't mind him. He belongs to the same party that asked us to vote Ribadu as president just 4 years ago. He also needs to tell us about Ribadu's experience in politics or civil service.


The same party that presented Fayemi. Maybe he was a senator too before he ruled Ekiti state. Ahhh, nah, his retort would be: "Ekiti is a small state." So cutting

Riyadh experience as chairman of EFCC for five years is not PUBLIC SERVICE experience?

maestroferddi:
Completely subjective analysis.

So your so-called progressive forces coalesced to hand victory to Michael Otedola in lieu of one of their own Dapo Sarumi in the botched Third Republic?

Funnily put together...

CC: aljharem; idumuose,pendy97,gbawe,ilugunboy,publisher,firefire

I don't think you got my point. Please read again. My point is that otedola votes mainly came from SDP protest votes.
Proof:an election conducted the same day for the state house of assembly returned ALL 36 seats for SDP.

maestroferddi:
The same words were in the streets when Mimiko achieved re-election and Fayose displaced an incumbent governor.

Make we hear word, abeg.

Mimiko was popular same as Fayose,thats why I said in my earlier post,the people of those states vote personalities not parties,devoid of rigging buhari is more popular than Gej in those states.

maestroferddi:
ONDO STATE
Despite the purported rift in Ondo PDP, I think Mimiko is still in charge here. Mimiko has demonstrated considerable staying power on the political turf and I don't see that changing in the next thirty days.
The most reverred political figure in this state is Chief Olu Falae, the leader of Social Democratic Party. It is expected that the SDP would endorse Jonathan for the election.
For the paucity of many key political players in this state, I think the PDP will comfortably carry the day cue Governor Segun Mimiko.

Prediction: PDP 65% APC 35%

OSUN STATE
This state gave the PDP the least vote in the region in 2011 and I don't see that changing. Governor Rauf Aregbesola is popular here and would greatly sway things in favour of the APC.
However, the PDP are no paper-weight here. Iyiola Omisore hails from the important Ife axis and depicted his potency by garnering about 45% of total votes cast in the last guber election. Something has also to be said about Femi Fani-Kayode who is among the emerging young Turks in the SW political calculations.

Prediction: APC 66% PDP 34%


OYO STATE
This state has to be too close to call. The main gladiators here are evenly matched. There is hardly much that could distinguish among the incumbent governor Abiola Ajimobi and ex-governors Christopher Alao-Akala and Rasheed Ladoja. The re-election of the sitting governor is by no means guaranteed.

I believe the sitting governor would be engrossed in trying to save his skin and may have been building bridges to accomplish the objective.
The emergence of Sen Teslim Folarin appears to be a gameplan by the PDP to strike a trade-off to win this state in the presidential election.

Prediction: PDP 53% APC 47%

Nonsense,I didn't vote in 2011 cos I knew CAN couldn't defeat GEJ,my dad n mum voted for GEJ..dis tym around everybody in my family will b votin for APC n we are from ondo state

omololu2020:
Nonsense,I didn't vote in 2011 cos I knew CAN couldn't defeat GEJ,my dad n mum voted for GEJ..dis tym around everybody in my family will b votin for APC n we are from ondo state

You are neither here nor there.

Your family is one among tens of thousands. The PDP will not score less than 50% of Ondo votes.

Put your finger on that...

masseratti:
Mimiko was popular same as Fayose,thats why I said in my earlier post,the people of those states vote personalities not parties,devoid of rigging buhari is more popular than Gej in those states.

All you just made is an off-hand speculation...

1wolex85:

this is not conspiracy or anything, yomi edu was the candidate for sdp not sarumi or agbalajobi, its fact not theory.
you can read this link if you have the time

http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/04/03/tinubu-nigerias-most-influential-politician-says-lai-mohammed/

Objective reportage from and The News.

You are kidding me, aren't you?

Yomi Edu was beaten by Otedola, pure and simple.

maestroferddi:
Objective reportage from and The News.

You are kidding me, aren't you?

Yomi Edu was beaten by Otedola, pure and simple.

you just like to argue unnecessarily. how do you explain sdp clearing the presidential, national assembly,state assembly and lg elections?

maestroferddi:
You are neither here nor there.

Your family is one among tens of thousands. The PDP will not score less than 50% of Ondo votes.

Put your finger on that...

just d way ur vote is one among tens of thousands,GEJ must mak sure d feb2015 election is free n fair,if is not he will hav only d south south and south east to rule over

1wolex85:

guy please stop this thing, ffk has no influence whatsoever in osun.

How many people even know that he's from Osun? He has no influence in Osun politics. APC's got Osun.

omololu2020:
just d way ur vote is one among tens of thousands,GEJ must mak sure d feb2015 election is free n fair,if is not he will hav only d south south and south east to rule over

I hope your idea of a free, credible and fair election does not mean a compulsory APC victory.

1wolex85:

you just like to argue unnecessarily. how do you explain sdp clearing the presidential, national assembly,state assembly and lg elections?

You are making a lot of wild exaggerations.

In any case, you are veering off the issue at hand.

olapluto:

As a resident of Oyo state, I read your analysis and was shaking my head.
PDP is pseudo-dead in Oyo state. If you go on Youtube to watch Jonathan's campaign at Mapo hall, you will see what I mean. The movers and shakers of Oyo Politics as of today were all absent. PDP in Oyo state is as good as dead. Am glad you actually did not include the PDP guber candidate in your analysis.
How GEJ will fare in Oyo state...poorly.
Objective analysis:
1. The votes in Oyo state can be broadly split into Ibadan, Oyo and Oke Ogun. Oyo town and Oke Ogun, including the 7 Ibarapa are most likely going to vote en masse for Buhari. Oke Ogun can be likened to Iwo in terms of religion, with a culture similar to that of the North. The fact that GEJ played religious card all through will make it hard for him to get 20% of Oke Ogun votes.
Oyo and Saki axis will be for BUhari.
Ibadan is the GEJ's only hope of any few votes he will get. I think GEJ will do very well to get anything above 30% of Oyo state votes. In Osun, GEJ will not get up to 20%.

Mr Olapluto, would you like to put a wager on your prediction about Oyo State?

I say GEJ takes Oyo State, do you want to put your money where your mouth is?

We can stake something as little as N20K, I go like chop your money