Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. - Politics - Nairaland
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Buhari Social Program PART II: Feasible or Laughable? / Barcanista, Buhari's Social Program; More Of A Possibility / Buhari Social Program: Laudable, Laughable Or Dead On Arrival? (2) (3) (4)
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| Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:25pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Officially, Nigeria exports 2 million barrels of crude oil daily. At the current price of 60 US dollars per barrel, that translates into 120 million US dollars. 120 million x 365day = 43,800,000,000 43 billion dollars @ 60% ( rumoured sharing formula between Nigeria and oil companies) That means Nigeria makes 25.8 billion dollars annually. $25.8 billion x 200 naira = 5.1 trillion naira. Nigeria's 2014 budget was N4.6 trillion meaning we still have about 0.5 trillion naira change. www.channelstv.com/2014/04/09/nigerian-senate-passes-4-6-trillion-naira-2014-budget/ FEDERAL INLAND REVENUE Nigeria generated N4.69tn Revenue in 2014 www.thisdaylive.com/articles/firs-generates-n4-69tn-revenue-in-2014/200484/ Adding N4.69 trillion (firs) + 5.1 trillion (crude oil) = 9.79 trillion. If our budget was N4.6 trillion then we have a balance of 5.1 trillion naira that nobody accounts for. Barcanista asked where we will find 1.8 trillion to take care of our most vulnerable citizens, this balance of 5.1 trillion will be taken away from the pockets of criminals and militants. EDIT. I forgot the FG gets 52% of total income, even at that we have a balance of 0.6 trillion naira which is sufficient for the first stage of the social programs. The APC government has said one of its major income earners is the mining industry. This plans with financial discipline is very much achievable. Please note that my analysis is based our major source of income ( oil and taxes), i have not touched other income earnings. 242 Likes 24 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:27pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Other links, www.thisdaylive.com/articles/nigeria-produces-2-5mbpd-of-crude-oil/154098/ If my maths failed me anywhere, please correct me, i don dey old o. 33 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by MuguliciousMUGU: 9:28pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Nonsense go school, you won't go... You can see how buhari certificateless brain is affecting yours. Just as they say, show me your friend and i will tell you who you are. I rest my case. We are watching the miracles... 107 Likes 7 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Ngasky(m): 9:29pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Good and simple analysis. Remember the PTF Program the economic prophets of doom both local and international wrote it off as a failed embarked policy at inception. But Nigerians knows better after the program was rounded up. Even the international doom sayers had to admit to the success of the program even without any foreign lending. And who is in charge? With the op analysis it is possible to achieve the goals. Even the outgoing govt has the resources to do this but the biggest undoing factor of JEG's failure is STEALING (sorry thats not corruption and cant sack becouse of stealing according to ...) I believe with all achieved 65-75% of Nigerias income/budget was stolen, thats only 25-35% was utilised. Imaging utilising 90-95% what will be the situation on ground? If GMB Can fight stealing/corruption Nigeria will be the best destination in Africa in 2 years time. 46 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by chymystique(f): 9:29pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Believe this crap @ your own peril  ...@ Op, You think revenues are generated in this COuntry by sitting in your house and doing mathematical calCulations disregarding many important Factors.... your analysis are unappliCable in real sense. At this state Nigeria is in right now and the debts accrued all these years, that social welfare package aint feasible for now thats if it will ever be implemented... 82 Likes 6 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by ochejoseph(m): 9:29pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Honestly Buhari and the APC made many unrealistic promises in the lead up to the election! Nigerians will hold him and the APC to their words as regards issues like 1. 5000 naira social security project for the unemployed Young Nigerians 2. 24 hours power supply or 12000MW in 8 months 3. Naira dollar parity or substantial appreciation 4. Feeding project for pupils etc Oby my dear your analysis did not capture other critical components, statutory deductions and the revenue sharing formula (FG /States /LGA ) Revenue accruals is not like debit and credit. Whether or Not Buhari and the APC has the capacity to deliver on these promises ONLY TIME WILL TELL! For the sake of Nigeria I pray he succeeds May God Continue to Bless this great Nation! 98 Likes 6 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Bevista: 9:30pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Obiagelli:Your analysis wrongly assumes that all that revenue will go to the Federal Government. Remember, the FG only takes about 52% of all accruable revenue to the Federation Account. Read more here: https://www.nairaland.com/2265904/rejoinder-buhari-social-program-laudable 29 Likes 4 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:31pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
chymystique:You are free to check my links. 13 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by anonimi: 9:32pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Obiagelli: I notice that ALL your revenue projection is based on Niger Delta crude oil. Nothing from groundnut oil, palm oil, coconut oil or other agricultural and industrial revenue. Why are we only about SHARING the wealth derived from only one part of the country  130 Likes 15 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by vicadex07(m): 9:34pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Barcanista and other prophets of doom...oya food don land o. Come and consume  25 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by imbless: 9:35pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Let's wait and see We pray for a govt better than the previous ones 7 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by ozoigbondu: 9:38pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Lets hope for the best but expect the worst from buhari.Oby your anaylsis get as it be too many loop holes 15 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Flets: 9:41pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
OP like many Nigerians are shallow economists. So many holes can be easily picked from the quack calculations 1a. Where is the 13% derivation to the oil producing states? Or you assumed the FG takes the full 60% of crude sales revenue? ..... and even after 13% deduction, only 54% of the residual 47% (excluding 13% for producing states and 40% for the IOCs) of total crude sales revenue goes to the FG. 1b. FG budget is for FG expenditure alone. FG does not budget for states...... so where are the state allocations funded from since they are not captured in the FG budget?.... for your education, 46% of the residual revenue is meant for states and LGs. 2. Where do you think the capital cost of oil and gas projects come from for which the FG pays its 60% share? Or you think the oil flows on its own without spending money? 3. 2.65trillion of the 4.69trillion IGR you quoted on FIRS is already petroleum profit. Go back check the details and confirm you have double dipped same funds on both sources. 4. Your assumption that FG takes all the IGR generated by FIRS is wrong. Discount the amount accruable to the states first in your calculations. 5. What funds the external reserves or all revenues must be spent on recurrent expenditure? Our revenue economics is not as simple as you lot think. Now that political campaigns are over, its time to educate Nigerians that our revenues are not limitless and some campaign points are not achievable albeit sustainable. Assuming, Buhari miracously finds some fraction of the funds required for the welfare programs, how do you identify the poorest of the poor Nigerians deserving of the 5K?, What database is available to identify the welfare recipients? We even struggle to identify bonafide Nigerians much more low income earners. Every effort to defend economic impossibilties reveals the shallowness of the incoming government. 177 Likes 24 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by healthcons: 9:41pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
MuguliciousMUGU: 20 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Trailblazer1(m): 9:42pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
it's a shame that both buhari and his supporters Don't have a clue of how the economy functions. Obiageli was just quick to counter Barcanista's Thread without due research just to feed her progressive ego and feel relevant but has now ended up showing nairalanders that she's one of buhari's blind followers. I pray that buhari and his clueless change team won't plunge us into an economic crisis with this social programme. Good morning Nigeria 15 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:45pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Bevista:You are absolutely correct, 10 trillion x 0.52 (52%) = 5.2 trillion naira, 5.2 - 4.6 (2014 budget) = 0.6 trillion. Remember i put crude production at 2million barrels per day even when the link says 2.5 million bpd, i have not touch other sources of income. 12 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Scholes007(m): 9:45pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Obiagelli:going by your projection the total amount of revenue have to be shared among the 36 states + FCT based on some formula the remaining have to be used to sort out fed re-current expenditure and capital expenditure. Then tell me where 1.8tr can be sourced for a non sense social pledge for millions unemployed youths Don't for get budget is a guild line and may be exceeded due to some factors especially security and economic stress 17 Likes 4 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:46pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
anonimi:I used present day statistics. 2 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Godisnear(m): 9:46pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
OP, I get your drift but it's kinda narrow and your analysis is based on all things being equal which is not so in the real world. The annual budget covers just capital and recurrent expenditures. The thing is that you shouldn't expect the government to spend all it earns. What happens to savings(a nation saves), debt payment nko? inflation nko?(financing monetary policies) and so many other factors. Sometimes there 2 budgets in a year. u get? 28 Likes 4 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:46pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
@Obiagelli: FIRS has just told you that Nigeria generate N4.69tr, so what is your argument? FEDERAL INLAND REVENUEWhere are you manufacturing your additional 5trn from? Do you understand economics and mathematics at all? Let me explain for you incase you don't understand how things work... We export 2m barrel of crude oil daily. These money DoES NOT solely belong to the FG. The OICs and other players takes share from it. Nigeria get some percentage from this money. The FIRS just told you that ALL our revenue for 2014(including tax,import duties etc) stand at N4.67 trn. So where are you getting the additional 5trn? Or where do you think the 4trn came from? This is how things work.... Nigeria Generates revenue from Oil export... Nigeria PAY Oil companies their own share for Operational Cost (mind you Nigeria is even owing these people). Nigeria earning in 2014 from oil is $77b ie 1.5tr. Meanwhile, this money is shared between States, FG and LG with about 54% of all generated money going to the Federal(?) While the rest are shared among States and LG Na wa 4 you o www.punchng.com/business/energy/nigeria-earned-77bn-from-oil-export-in-2014/ Obiagelli need to enroll for some classes. 76 Likes 8 Shares |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by jmoore(m): 9:48pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
I am only interested on how he can stabilize world oil price. 42 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by gists: 9:48pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
anonimi: Try and be objective. She also mentioned internally generated revenue. FEDERAL INLAND REVENUE My only concern is the premise that all the revenue generated belong to FG. 11 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by jmoore(m): 9:49pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
barcanista: Bevista: Those folks will kill our economy. Before you counter any opinion, don't be in a rush. Abeg. After 2 years, we will know if it possible or not. No be by mouth. 16 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by coolitempa(f): 9:51pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
anonimi: . Where are your emoticon.....n.....paintings........has your allowance been withdrawn?... 5 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by trillville(m): 9:51pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
anonimi: Please, I hope you are not adding the offshore crude oil to your ND figure? Try to separate onshore ND crude from offshore Nigerian crude when u are making any point. I believe Nigeria also earns money from lng sales and customs too. Agencies such as FAAN make a killing too off taxes at our airports. So please let's calculate government revenue properly. 8 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by braine(m): 9:52pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
Nice. |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:52pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
People also forget that aid agencies like Unicef, dfid, bill and melinda gates foundation, the european union would key into such programs. Providing counterpart funding. I know for sure the osun programme has like 30% funding from such organisations especialy the Eu and DFiD. 4 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:52pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
barcanista: Take your time to read brother From OP Adding N4.69 trillion (firs) + 5.1 trillion (crude oil) = 9.79 trillion. From the Firs link The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) said on Thursday that it generated N4.69 trillion from taxes for the federal government in 2014. 20 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by dunkem21(m): 9:53pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
jmoore: Una no go kill person with laughter for this forum. 4 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by adaweezy(m): 9:54pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
barcanista:5 trillion from crude oil production sharing contracts and she has not added NLNG income yet 7 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by coolitempa(f): 9:55pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
barcanista: Muumuu.......obiageli used internal.....n......external sources......of revenue.... .....one from crude sales alone........another from IGRs.. 11 Likes |
| Re: Buhari's Social Program: Very Possible. by Nobody: 9:57pm On Apr 19, 2015 |
@Obiagelli: I have tried to break it to your level pls re-read my comment. The money declared by FIRS is inclusive of ALL earnings accrued to the FG. Where do you think the 4.67trn came from? Lol.. Or you expect the FG to take all 5trn? Do you you think the Oil Companies and other players are Charity organisation? Do you have an idea how much in percentage is for the government? Abeg no fall your hand jare... Obiagelli:de 32 Likes 1 Share |
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