Bevista:
The CBN hand will be forced. No matter how they grandstand on the current exchange rate, sooner or later, they will do the needful by adjusting the exchange rate to a more realistic and appropriate price.
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If they don't, then the divergence between the official rate and the parallel rate might hit N100 this quarter.

shinaf:
CBN’s refusal to supply enough foreign exchange will drive the three key currencies up. Dollar , pounds ,euro
Other factors that will drive down the value of the Naira this month include:

1. SCHOOL FEES – Heavy demand for forex to settle overseas school fees by parents.

2. CRUDE OIL PRICE – As long as crude price continues to fall, CBN will be reluctant to defend the Naira hence, will supply less forex to the market thereby creating artificial scarcity.

3. MIDDLE EAST TENSION – If the Middle East tension between Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations escalate, this will push up crude prices only to a level but not sufficient enough to make the Naira appreciate strongly. Unless it blows out to a full scale war, there will be little impact of the crude supply meaning CBN cannot build its foreign reserve account to defend the Naira.

4. SPECULTORS – In the past months, speculators have made huge profits on betting on the Naira depreciating. This trend will continue in January as they expect the Naira to be devalued. This will create excess demand in the black market and CBN is not willing to meet this demand at this stage so Naira depreciates further.

5. EXCESS LIQUIDITY – There is still excess Naira liquidity in the market and banks will use this excess cash to trade any available forex in the market to generate additional profit for themselves. This too will push up the prices for Dollar / Pounds / Euro.

6. NAIRA VISA / MASTERCARD BAN – CBN has banned the use of Naira Visa/Master cards abroad. This means shoppers and travellers will need to rely on the black market for their supply of dollar. Little availability means the high demand will push up prices all through January.

7. USA and UK INTEREST RATES – USA have increased interest rates in December 2015 and this has stregnthen the dollar. The dollar will further strengthen in January. UK is also likely to increase its interest rate in January. If this happens, this will also strengthen the GBP which will make it more expensive for the Naira.

8. IMPORTERS DEMAND – The importers resume business in January and will demand additional dollars to trade with. This too will drive up the cost of forex as scarcity persists.= thereby weakening the Naira.

9. WEAK STOCK MARKET – The weak stock market has left investors seeking alternative investments. Some have diverted their funds to the forex market, taking part in speculative buying for short gains. This also will increase the participants demanding the short forex in supply and as Mr. President has refused to supply dollars to meet the excess demand, this is bound to depreciate the Naira further.

10. FOREIGN RESERVE ACCOUNT – With a dwindling foreign reserve, the CBN is in no position to defend the naira hence, left to market forces to determine it’s equilibrium. This means Naira will stay low at the target prices set above.

Unless the Dollar / Pound / Euro gain excessively in the international markets.
Cc aboki,ymodulus

SPECULTORS – In the past months, speculators have made huge profits on betting on the Naira depreciating. This trend will continue in January as they expect the Naira to be devalued. This will create excess demand in the black market and CBN is not willing to meet this demand at this stage so Naira depreciates further.

5. EXCESS LIQUIDITY – There is still excess Naira liquidity in the market and banks will use this excess cash to trade any available forex in the market to generate additional profit for themselves. This too will push up the prices for Dollar / Pounds / Euro.

alakara:

Shinaf with all u av written what kind of biss can a currency merchant do.

GiggsTk:
Shinaf, this is indeed a nice analysis, nice enough to help good thinkers in deciding what types of business will sell best

whizqueen:
This is a brilliant analysis!!!!!
I really feel sorry for the nigerian economy things would only get worse in the next few months.

Ymodulus:

Now is the time to think dear, there is something you can do to expliot the situation smiling to the bank.

Ymodulus:

Now is the time to think dear, there is something you can do to expliot the situation smiling to the bank.

Ymodulus:

Currency resale. Get the cheap Fx and sale back at a high price.

Ymodulus:


Lol @ Speculators. It's nice been one.


No5 is happening already.


Today the rate in the Black Market is Now 283naira to a Dollar

Ymodulus:


Currency resale. Get the cheap Fx and sale back at a high price.

Abidex35:



my boss is high time we do fx business, I can't wait any longer; wanna dirty my hands ( LOL ) with dollars . please how can I reach you. quote me back, i wouldnt like to drop my contact because of all these NL scammers, pls suggest a way. I also got an idea of sourcing cheap forex but these cant materialize without ur said contact in china.

Boss, market ever available for this scarce dollars. will be expecting ur reply via quote.......#TeamFxBusiness

Ymodulus:

so how do we contact each other ?

Abidex35:


I guess I should put my phone number(Whatsapp) temporarily on my signature/profile after which I would remove , and then you msg or call me, or you do that, and I message or call you, which do you suggest?

Ymodulus:

put it on your profile when i pick it i will call you

Why did you remove your PIN?

Want to contact you...
Thx....

Ymodulus:

put it on your profile when i pick it i will call you

Abidex35:

Done Boss!

Ymodulus:
just called you 18:34 you can take the number of your profile now.



@Modath am lost you quoting two individuals or your reply is a quote itself

Ymodulus:
just called you 18:34 you can take the number of your profile now.



@Modath am lost you quoting two individuals or your reply is a quote itself