brom:

@SavvyLanre,
What are d requirements 4 registering with Zenith Securities?.I mean the process. How much is their interest?

@brom
You can find more details on how you can open an account with Zenith on their website

Contact Info
http://www.zenithsecuritiesng.com/contactus.php

Forms
http://www.zenithsecuritiesng.com/downloads.php

Info on Products & Services
http://www.zenithsecuritiesng.com/services.php

I am not a sales man for them - so check around to see the one that fits into your criteria,
Personally, i checked on IBTC, Afrinvest, BGL and Zenith - before i settled with them,
I think IBTC, Zenith and BGL are on par - but that is my view.

enurayce:

@ frankiriri
Please for starters like me,how do i make use of both fundamental and technical analysis in picking and sales of stocks.
I need to catch up.so i will greatly appreciate it if you can send findings to my enail
enurayce@yahoo.com
this invitation is open to all others that want to contribute
thanks

@enurayce
Just trying to relieve the guru a little bit -
Fundamental & Technical analysis are quite a complicated subject to review in simple terms - saying that, not many of us use all of the bits and pieces to full extent.
For example, Fundamental analysis - generally you see people looking at the profit after Tax (PAT), by itself it doesn't make much sense, so we shift to Earning per share (EPS); and that also by itself does not make much sense in comparison to other stocks (Most especially in the same sector); so we eventually look at the Price to earning ratio (PE). Now using PE alone might not give you the whole picture, you want to combine that with the Dividend yield,  that gives you a picture of how much they actually payout.
Then you go into the cashflow of the company, in that way you are going advanced and even more useful is checking their liquidity - debt ratio, gearing ratio that way you would know if they are using most of the profit to payoff debt - in which they might be doing for a longtime, in which cases investors do not expect value on the shares to increase anytime soon.

Check Wikipedia for definition of all this ratios,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_analysis

For Technical analysis,
You need to hold enough data, or perhaps have a website like www.nigerianstockexchange.com; where you can look at trends,  but that alone is not enough, because you want to check moving average and all that, so you know your entry and exit point - like someone dropped the big words on japanese candlestick recently - this are all complicated and intrinsic ways of performing technical analysis.
A good quote is "the trend is your friend", you do not want to go against the trend, when it is either bearish or bullish.

Check wikipedia as well for overview
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

For starters i would say read the ebook on http://www.stockmarketnigeria.com/,  it is definitely a good starting point.

Hello guys , have the FirstBank public offer started yet ?

very good analysis, savvylanre
u are now officially a GURU here so u are in the nairaland stock hall of fame with mr frank, cheexy and windywendy


can i set up the zenith securities stuff just on the net without face to face contact?

Nice job you guys are doing here.  I can see quite a number of people are interested in fundamental and technical tools for choosing what stock to buy or sell and when to buy or sell.  I hereby recommend a simple website that allows you to[b] track your portfolio [/b] as it appreciates over time.  It displays the percentage change per day and a chart of your portfolio according to specified date range. 

Go to http://www.karakataonline.com to try it out.  It is still a solution in the works so it might look rather simplistic or bumpy but I believe it can still add some value to you.  And more features will be added in the next few weeks.

Kindly provide feedback via the feedback page of the site.

please does anyone have information on Ecobank? I heard they are planning a public offer. Do you think it is okay to buy at current price of N7+?

For those needing technical analysis, I hope this helps. Watch out for the eps (ie earning per share) that tell you what each of your share earns. Companies with low eps are not worth investing in especially those with values such as 0.05 and less ( if you are a small scale investor that is)
The profit after tax (PAT) can also help you determine which stock to pick. Rule is the higher the PAT, that's where my money goes!

@bioye
Good work with the karakata site. I had already drawn up an excel spreadsheet for myself incorporating all those stuff, and including the selling charges so I could simulate the exact price gain when selling at a particular price. However, your site makes it easier since I dotn have to manually enter the prices I get daily from my broker. Real good work.
I noticed there's no Dangote Sugar sha. Hope you'll add it??

Tmoni:

very good analysis, savvylanre
u are now officially a GURU here so u are in the nairaland stock hall of fame with mr frank, cheexy and windywendy


can i set up the zenith securities stuff just on the net without face to face contact?

@Tmoni
LOL - I no fit laugh anymore, 
If you read WindyWendy and Frank's analysis carefully, you would notice a high level of knowledge and understanding of the market and the sectors.
I haven't reach that stage yet, when i build a 10M portfolio,  i am sure i would have learnt a lot by that time. (That is my personal performance criteria - as it is good to set goals,  S.M.A.R.T.)

Regarding opening an account with Zenith, just give them a call and start from there,  i did not have to see them face to face, i scanned and sent all the forms. But, the cheque and Share certificates would either need to be delivered in person by a friend or family, or sent via DHL/UPS or whatever you have for courier service.

If you have any problem, shoot me your email address, and i could put you in touch directly with the people i know.

@egold
if u have bought some shares from during POs , then you would have to contact some stock broker and give them you shares certificates and they would register your account with cscs and those shares of urs would be credited to your cscs account ,you would be then be provided a cscs account number and also clearing house number .
after this you may be bale to call the automated numbers provided earlier on this thread abd be able to check you stocks , your account number would also be your pin number though u may have the option to change it during the automated call .
mr frank,
likehow long will it take a broker to credit the shares into the CSCS account.
(i just linked with your investment club) i think you are what i ahve been looking in this shares thing

Allwell:

 Companies with low eps are not worth investing in especially those with values such as 0.05 and less ( if you are a small scale investor that is)

It's not always true. A company may be having low EPS now but a significant restructuring or management reshuffle may make it  lucrative. E.g NASCON, BCC and Dunlop are all companies with poor or even negative EPS which are benefiting from a restructuring.

mr frank (for you)

if u have bought some shares from during POs , then you would have to contact some stock broker and give them you shares certificates and they would register your account with cscs and those shares of urs would be credited to your cscs account ,you would be then be provided a cscs account number and also clearing house number .
after this you may be bale to call the automated numbers provided earlier on this thread abd be able to check you stocks , your account number would also be your pin number though u may have the option to change it during the automated call .
mr frank,
likehow long will it take a broker to credit the shares into the CSCS account.
(i just linked with your investment club) i think you are what i ahve been looking in this shares thing

@olucooler,
Personally, i don't feel ecobank. I think it is too expensive at 7.58 with an E.P.S of 0.08.

@ Frank - I'm interested in TA but access to data is problematic, is there any possibility of sharing your data, that is open/close, high/low and hourlies?

Someone suggested to a friend, that to do TA you need 3 years data at least, can you offer any assistance?

Omoba3:

@ Frank - I'm interested in TA but access to data is problematic, is there any possibility of sharing your data, that is open/close, high/low and hourlies?

Someone suggested to a friend, that to do TA you need 3 years data at least, can you offer any assistance?

@ Frank, i would also be interested in receiving such data, even if it is back to a year alone.

SavvyLanre:

@enurayce
Just trying to relieve the guru a little bit -
Fundamental & Technical analysis are quite a complicated subject to review in simple terms - saying that, not many of us use all of the bits and pieces to full extent.
For example, Fundamental analysis - generally you see people looking at the profit after Tax (PAT), by itself it doesn't make much sense, so we shift to Earning per share (EPS); and that also by itself does not make much sense in comparison to other stocks (Most especially in the same sector); so we eventually look at the Price to earning ratio (PE). Now using PE alone might not give you the whole picture, you want to combine that with the Dividend yield, that gives you a picture of how much they actually payout.
Then you go into the cashflow of the company, in that way you are going advanced and even more useful is checking their liquidity - debt ratio, gearing ratio that way you would know if they are using most of the profit to payoff debt - in which they might be doing for a longtime, in which cases investors do not expect value on the shares to increase anytime soon.

Check Wikipedia for definition of all this ratios,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_analysis

For Technical analysis,
You need to hold enough data, or perhaps have a website like www.nigerianstockexchange.com; where you can look at trends, but that alone is not enough, because you want to check moving average and all that, so you know your entry and exit point - like someone dropped the big words on japanese candlestick recently - this are all complicated and intrinsic ways of performing technical analysis.
A good quote is "the trend is your friend", you do not want to go against the trend, when it is either bearish or bullish.

Check wikipedia as well for overview
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

For starters i would say read the ebook on http://www.stockmarketnigeria.com/, it is definitely a good starting point.

Well put

Tmoni:

very good analysis, savvylanre
u are now officially a GURU here so u are in the nairaland stock hall of fame with mr frank, cheexy and windywendy


can i set up the zenith securities stuff just on the net without face to face contact?

I second it

Allwell:

For those needing technical analysis, I hope this helps. Watch out for the eps (ie earning per share) that tell you what each of your share earns. Companies with low eps are not worth investing in especially those with values such as 0.05 and less ( if you are a small scale investor that is)
The profit after tax (PAT) can also help you determine which stock to pick. Rule is the higher the PAT, that's where my money goes!

all the indicators you mentioned are actually for fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis is the attempts to determine the intrinsic value of a share via indicators like the demand and supply of the product, level of turnover, market share, eps, PE ratio, cash flow etc. Tecnical analysis involves the study of the pattern of past prices of a stock in the belief that such patterns repeat themselves since investors would remember the price they bought (or wished they bought) the shares. It involves studying the trend of past prices and the volume of trade done.

SavvyLanre:

@ Frank, i would also be interested in receiving such data, even if it is back to a year alone.

joobreel:

@egold
mr frank,
likehow long will it take a broker to credit the shares into the CSCS account.
(i just linked with your investment club) i think you are what i ahve been looking in this shares thing

Gee. I am sure you guys already employ tecnical analysis without knowing that you doso . Any tine you follow the price of the stocks you own and are predicting price levels based on what it has done bin the past then you are employing tecnical analysis.
I dont have such data and I am not going to waste my time gathering it. But if you have access tostockwatch and businessday on thursday you will actually find the price patterns for some stocks tracked there.
However I want to emphasise that you should place more importance on fundamental analysis.

I think we should focus on stock tips rather than fudamental analysis techniques and TA. Truth be told there are many variations of fundamental and technical analysis, and even the best practitioners still get it wrong. In Nigeria where companies are not completely transparent, and company executives are not accountable for the info they publish. attempting to do this kind of analysis is almost a joke.

We need to spend time hunting for the next gold mine like Dangote Flour etc, instead of deceiving ourselves with have cooked fundamental and technical analysis

Vitastraka:

We need to spend time hunting for the next gold mine like Dangote Flour etc, instead of deceiving ourselves with have cooked fundamental and technical analysis

How do you intend to do that without using any of these techniques. Whether you know it or not you use these techniques. Its just the level of sophistication that differs. One person may just look at management pedigree and the company's profile which are fundamental indictaors while another may conduct indepth research into the industrial and economic factors that affect the stock in question.

yah

does anyone have information on Eternal oil, i can only find results of two years 2000 and 2001

battleaxe:

@bioye
Good work with the karakata site. I had already drawn up an excel spreadsheet for myself incorporating all those stuff, and including the selling charges so I could simulate the exact price gain when selling at a particular price. However, your site makes it easier since I dotn have to manually enter the prices I get daily from my broker. Real good work.
I noticed there's no Dangote Sugar sha. Hope you'll add it??

Apologies if this post is offtopic.

DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC has been added to the stock list along with other outstanding stocks earlier ommitted.  Remember to always use the feedback page of http://www.karakataonline.com.  Thank you.

@People

I am about to register with cashcraft but i already have a broker

Do i need to tell cashcraft my previous number or they issue me another one.

dollyp1cute:

@People

I am about to register with cashcraft but i already have a broker

Do i need to tell cashcraft my previous number or they issue me another one.

You don't . You will be given another CSCS number. For each broker you use you are allowed one CSCS no.

Hey!,

First bank PO opens on May 14.

"Parties to the N100 billion hybrids offer of First Bank of Nigeria Plc met yesterday to endorse the documents relating to the offer, while shareholders unanimously approved the directors' proposition to raise the additional fund.

The bank is offering for subscription 1.624 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at N33 per share, and a rights issue of 1,497 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo at N31 per share.

Application for the hybrid offer opens on Monday May 14 and closes on Thursday June 21, 2007.

Packaged by FBN Capital and IBTC Chartered Bank Plc as joint issuing houses, the offer is being undertaken to enable the bank enhance its branch network and working capital, while also enhancing the bank's competitive edge.

Specifically, according to the prospectus, the proceeds of the offer would be used to deepen the bank's retail infrastructure in the country through the expansion of branch network, strengthen subsidiaries' capital base to support business growth, expand First Bank's capital resources to selectively exploit value creation opportunities in the regional markets and elsewhere (particularly Africa, Middle East and Asia).

Besides, part of the proceeds would be used to support enlarged operations and broaden its relationship management capabilities.

Specifically, increase in working capital would get 28.3 per cent or N27.14 billion, while expansion of branch network gulps 22.8 per cent or N21.93 billion, and mordenisation of branch network gets 12.7 per cent or N12.22 billion.

Increase in equity investment in subsidiaries like FBN Bank (UK) Limited, and FBN Mortgages Limited gets N11 billion or 11.5 per cent among others.

Already, an application has been made to the Nigerian Stock Exchange for the admission to its Daily Official List, the offer of 3.12 billion ordinary shares representing the offer for subscription of 1.62 billion ordinary shares and offer by way of rights to existing shareholders of 1.496 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo each.

According to the prospectus, a maximum of 649.7 million shares representing 40 per cent of the offer size shall be preferentially allotted to high networth individuals and institutional investors. - Guardian May 8"

The gurus should tell us what they feel about the offer.

In my own opinion, I will go for it for the following reasons. The bank has very strong fundamentals (PAT in 2006 = 17.83bN), good management, solid branch networks. And for the investors, First Bank possesses an amazing dividend and bonus paying history. Paid Dividend N1 and bonus 1 for 1 in 2006, Dividend N1.6 and bonus 1 for 4 in 2005, Dividend N1.55 and bonus 1 for 8 in 2004. The history dates back to 2001.

, and it's cheap @N33. At least, Mr Elumelu's "bumper offer" was sold @35

On the face of it, the offer looks good, esp. compared to UBA. But let's do some math and assess this offer (just for the fun of it).

First bank currently has outstanding shares of 10.36 billion, and with the conclusion of the public offer, this number will increase to 13.481 billion (assuming the offer is fully subscribed).

Now let's assume for a moment that we're expecting the stock price to rise to the range of something in the N60's, which is what happened during the company's last financial year end. For this to happen, this means (at the very least) that the bank will have to earn the same EPS that it did back then, which was N3.3873. For this to happen with 13.481billion shares, the bank would have to make a PAT of N45.66 billion (i.e. 3.3873*13.481billion) this financial year end.

The question is: Can first bank make that much money, especially given that it's half year ending 9/2006 PAT was just about N10.23 billion?

Alternatively, let's approach it from the P/E ratio angle. First Bank's current P/E ratio is 20.61, as compared to Zenith's 25.23. Now let's even assume that the market gets unreasonably hyper active and the stock will trade at a P/E of 30. Also, let's assume that for FY 2007, first bank will be able to double it's half year result and make a PAT of N20.46billion -- or let's even say N30billion. This will bring EPS to N2.225. At a P/E ratio of 30, the stock price will be worth N66. Based on this analysis, First Bank is a good buy and I would go for it. But the big question is: Can first bank make an EPS of N2.225 anytime in the near future and will the market be willing to purchase the stock at 30 times earnings??

If you can figure out the answer to any of these questions correctly, then you have your answer as to whether or not to buy into the first bank offer. Otherwise you might want to ask yourself if there are better deals out there that are more certain to make you the type of returns that you want.

Now, I'm not going to deny the fact that hype might come into play, causing the share price to rise to some unreasonable level. But as always, the market will get corrected (think Nigerian Breweries which was once trading above N100 and can't even get to N50 these days) and prices will fall back to reasonable levels. Investors will only make serious bucks if they're able to quickly get in and get out while the hype is still on . . .

Just my 2 cents


PS: If anyone emailed me recently, I apologize for not having responded. I've been crazy busy and will respond with time.

pamit:

, and it's cheap @N33. At least, Mr Elumelu's "bumper offer" was sold @35

@Pamit where did you get the information on the PAT for 2006, also I believe you need the financial details at least for the last 3 years to do a proper analysis. Why is it so hard to get historical financial information on this companies to do a proper analysis. I have checked NSE website and apparently i need to pay to join up but just wondering if the data will be worth it's salt.

Has anyone joined NSE and is the info worth it?

Anyway as per the offer it seems to be good, I will invest a bit, but there are other gems on NSE, offer or no offer.

WIthout even seeing the prospectus I am enorsing the offer. Its a good buy in me books. However when I see the financials I will be able to comment more.

windywendy:

On the face of it, the offer looks good, esp. compared to UBA. But let's do some math and assess this offer (just for the fun of it).

First bank currently has outstanding shares of 10.36 billion, and with the conclusion of the public offer, this number will increase to 13.481 billion (assuming the offer is fully subscribed).

Now let's assume for a moment that we're expecting the stock price to rise to the range of something in the N60's, which is what happened during the company's last financial year end. For this to happen, this means (at the very least) that the bank will have to earn the same EPS that it did back then, which was N3.3873. For this to happen with 13.481billion shares, the bank would have to make a PAT of N45.66 billion (i.e. 3.3873*13.481billion) this financial year end.

The question is: Can first bank make that much money, especially given that it's half year ending 9/2006 PAT was just about N10.23 billion?

Alternatively, let's approach it from the P/E ratio angle. First Bank's current P/E ratio is 20.61, as compared to Zenith's 25.23. Now let's even assume that the market gets unreasonably hyper active and the stock will trade at a P/E of 30. Also, let's assume that for FY 2007, first bank will be able to double it's half year result and make a PAT of N20.46billion -- or let's even say N30billion. This will bring EPS to N2.225. At a P/E ratio of 30, the stock price will be worth N66. Based on this analysis, First Bank is a good buy and I would go for it. But the big question is: Can first bank make an EPS of N2.225 anytime in the near future and will the market be willing to purchase the stock at 30 times earnings??

If you can figure out the answer to any of these questions correctly, then you have your answer as to whether or not to buy into the first bank offer. Otherwise you might want to ask yourself if there are better deals out there that are more certain to make you the type of returns that you want.

Now, I'm not going to deny the fact that hype might come into play, causing the share price to rise to some unreasonable level. But as always, the market will get corrected (think Nigerian Breweries which was once trading above N100 and can't even get to N50) and prices will fall back to reasonable levels. Investors will only make serious bucks if they're able to quickly get in and get out while the hype is still on . . .

Just my 2 cents

Very good analysis.
However I want to take you up on certain issues.
1. First Bank did not make N60 last year because of its fundamentals. It was just investor frenzy and the Nigerian investor's misguided preference for bonus at all cost that caused the price to rise.
2. The impact of the proceeds of this public offer willonly reflect in the earnings of the company in the financial year ending march 2008 and you are using their figure for the financial year 2007. Thus you are not comparing like with like.
As I said earlier I cant state cartegorically on how good the deal is until I see the financials. But I do know that given the current state of the market where even redundant companies are being priced at handsome multiples I woul gladly settle for a First Bank.
In fact I would rather buy a First Bank at N33 than buy a NASCON at N12 or a NAHCO at N63 or a Transcorp at N9.71