ZENITH BANK AVAILABLE IN LARGE VOLUME FOR ANYONE INTERESTED TO RIDE THE POST-OFFER
JET.

[/quote][quote author=wanaj0 link=topic=31554.msg1890918#msg1890918 date=1201362200]
About 9.1bn shares to be added to the oustanding shares of Access Bank. Allottment already cleared by SEC.

Hi Wanajo, what do you think is the implication of this on the price of Access?

Many thanks for your insight.

debenzd:

Hi Wanajo, what do you think is the implication of this on the price of Access?

Many thanks for your insight.

overbloated oustanding shares.

N40m naira can not move some stocks in NSE however if you spread it to more stocks it could help make a kill.Shares are behaving funny because prices are not based on fundamentals but sometimes sentiment.The least expected will give you cool money.Likes of this erratic behaviour of stocks are AfROIL,CAPOIL, AP while stock with good fundamentals are static in price such as FBN,UBN,GUINNESS etc.I took a loan to buy Access Bank while on T/S at a premium price thinking that as soon as the T/S is lifted i will make a kill.I had to sell other stocks to pay off the loan.The money i used to pay off the loan was from least expected stock that gives me more than 500%.If i had known i would have used the loan to buy this stock.Think x2 before you take the loan otherwise you might develop hypertension.Make sure you have alternative way of paying the loan if plan A failed.Thanks for listening.

[/quote][quote author=wanaj0 link=topic=31554.msg1891236#msg1891236 date=1201367264]
overbloated oustanding shares.

Does that mean in the short term the price will drop further or we are looking at the end of year implications as per dividend pay outs?

Thanks

Hi all,
I at a bit of a crossroad here. I am thinking of selling off my intercontinental bank shares. I bought it at 16.5 and i am not sure whether this is the best time to sell or whether i should ride it a bit longer.
Thanks for your anticipated responses

@cheexy

depends on what u set as an exit price. sounds like u've exceeded ur expectations. u already have at least a 2 bagger with this one if u sell on monday.

ask urself, why do i want to sell? is it cuz i've hit/exceeded my target or to raise capital to move to juicier stock? why?
the answer u come up with should help in making the final decision.

hope this is helpful

@aktopgun
Thanks a bunch. Your post was very helpful. You got it right that i have exceeded my target. I need to raise money to go into something else. I will set a limit of 40 for my stockbroker on monday
@fo2
any leads?

[quote][/quote]wanaj0
« #12473 on: Today at 06:07:44 PM »  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from: debenzd on Today at 05:51:43 PM
Hi Wanajo, what do you think is the implication of this on the price of Access?

Many thanks for your insight.


overbloated oustanding shares

Watchout for another round of share reconstruction by Access Bank

@Aktopgun,

How you dey? How is Tobechukwu doing? Pls which broker you dey use?

@All,

I think we may beging to witness share reconstructions by the Banks now that most of them are having overbloated outstanding share. This may begin with Acess Bank & Oceanic Bank. What do the house think?

@Wanajo,
How you dey?Is it adviceable to buy Intercont.Bank now(for 6-9 months)

To the fella who got a N40m loan.
We have a saying in my village if you wan chop frog chop a big fat one. My strategy for this kind of scenario would be safe but aggressive. The loan is for one year right? I'd start with NESTLE tell your broker to place a bid at -5% of the previous closing price with the whole N40m it is a very volatile stock and I am sure you will get it. Nestle dividend this year should be around N9 expect about a 20% appreciation when full year results are announced. Question is shoudl you sell or take the dividend. I would sell asking my broker to set a price limit of +5% of the previous closing price after I get a 20% from my buy price (this is to take care of the transaction charges). I expect that you would have had the interest secured by now. by now you should have a minimum of N50m split it into two if IKEJAHOTEL never announce result by now AND it is above N7 buy with ~N22m the rest put into UBA (safe and aggressive) if you have the stomach and balls then just use everything to buy IKEJAHOTEL. Calculate the networth of you investments on a DAILY basis. When it is worth goes above N80m sell up and write a cheque to your bank(er) to pay off the loan. Don't get greedy or you will get caught out remeber bulls and bears all make money but pigs get slaughtered!! May God be with you on this one. I honestly wouldn't attempt it. The market is all about experience and you learn a lot more each year. Your investment should grow with your experience. The growth rate depends on your personality. This is a very true fact. What you are trying to do is tantamout to being a market pig. Only people with insider information should do something like that.

@wasky, why not tell the guy to select ten good stocks, spread in some sectors, with a fixed amount.

Like 4 mill each, then watch it, any of it that does 20% should be harvested for reinvestment, but na wao.

All this heavy schemeing and unnecessary headaches , I better do stock betting with my own money, no matter how little. Differnt strokes.

40 million
why everybody is panic on decision of what to be done with 40m in NSE? He who burnt his silos he knows better how cost is ash. Mr 40m we wish you high return in whatever decision u  make. Gurus We're heading to monday i've some minutes to sunday. Lets get back to business. STOCK MARKET TIPS FOR NIGERIA.
@ wanajo
i miss my target of ikeja hotel i gave a buy at 6.15 on wed but my broker didnt get it bcoz the price has up. As at friday it closed around 6.8k do u pipo c it a gud buy still?

wanaj0:

N40m loan for 6months is a recipe for disaster!!!!!! 6months is too short a time. So the guy better watch it. Remember, capital market is for long term investment even though there are opportunities for short term gains.

Imagine a scenario that in six months, he is in the red and so his stocks were sold at a loss only to see the same stocks move up in the 7th or 8th month. Hope the persons BP can handle that.

Wanajo, I hear he lives close to family doctor and opposite is a psychiatrics clinic, in case! Una no vexooo na de way I see am. There is a stock which I bought for close to a year now, I am still praying to break even talk less of making it! If not for this Nairaland, many of us would still be making the same mistake and thinking its home trouble! Capital market investment is for long term, a year would have made sense, not six months in a country whose policies are never stable. Those in the cement industry can testify!

As for impact, 40m x 10 cannot make any meaningful impact on NSE. Do the figure

wanaj0:

N40m loan for 6months is a recipe for disaster!!!!!! 6months is too short a time. So the guy better watch it. Remember, capital market is for long term investment even though there are opportunities for short term gains.

Imagine a scenario that in six months, he is in the red and so his stocks were sold at a loss only to see the same stocks move up in the 7th or 8th month. Hope the persons BP can handle that.

Wanajo, I hear he lives close to family doctor and opposite is a psychiatrics clinic, in case! Una no vexooo na de way I see am.  There is a stock which I bought for close to a year now, I am still praying to break even talk less of making it!  If not for this Nairaland, many of us would still be making the same mistake and thinking its home trouble! Capital market investment is for long term, a year would have made sense, not six months in a country whose policies are never stable.  Those in the cement industry can testify!

As for impact, 40m x 10 cannot make any significant impact on NSE.  Do the figure yourself.

Help needed to know if I am entitled to dividends as I brought some shares a long while back in my CSCS account and I am not based in Nigeria, how do I find out?

grabdaloot:

To the fella who got a N40m loan.
We have a saying in my village if you wan chop frog chop a big fat one. My strategy for this kind of scenario would be safe but aggressive. The loan is for one year right? I'd start with NESTLE tell your broker to place a bid at -5% of the previous closing price with the whole N40m it is a very volatile stock and I am sure you will get it. Nestle dividend this year should be around N9 expect about a 20% appreciation when full year results are announced. Question is shoudl you sell or take the dividend. I would sell asking my broker to set a price limit of +5% of the previous closing price after I get a 20% from my buy price (this is to take care of the transaction charges). I expect that you would have had the interest secured by now. by now you should have a minimum of N50m split it into two if IKEJAHOTEL never announce result by now AND it is above N7 buy with ~N22m the rest put into UBA (safe and aggressive) if you have the stomach and balls then just use everything to buy IKEJAHOTEL. Calculate the networth of you investments on a DAILY basis. When it is worth goes above N80m sell up and write a cheque to your bank(er) to pay off the loan. Don't get greedy or you will get caught out remeber bulls and bears all make money but pigs get slaughtered!! May God be with you on this one. I honestly wouldn't attempt it. The market is all about experience and you learn a lot more each year. Your investment should grow with your experience. The growth rate depends on your personality. This is a very true fact. What you are trying to do is tantamout to being a market pig. Only people with insider information should do something like that.

He said 6 months, the guy get liver o 40 mil loan.

wanaj0:

Dangote Sugar appears fairly valued.

Wanajo, is Guinness not fairly valued?  How about Diamond Bank?  And even First Bank?  I think the question is whether the market will realize this in six months.  If I were him, with my N8m, and with minimum of 75% returns in one year, I should turn my N8m to  N15m.  SIX MONTHS IS TOO SHORT!  Even if he succeeds, and I wish he succeeds if the risk is really worth it, it is not a wise nor prudent deal.  With N8m in his coffers, the guy is already waded now, he is hoping for a kill.   Me I don't want to attend any fun, eral oooooo.

BabaOlu:

@All,

I think we may beging to witness share reconstructions by the Banks now that most of them are having overbloated outstanding share. This may begin with Acess Bank & Oceanic Bank. What do the house think?

That is why anyone expecting 100% returns from any bank shares is not following the facts on ground. What drives price in NSE is BONUS not even dividend. See what mere rumour is doing to Japaul Oil. So with all these overbloated outstanding shares of banks, analysing minds already know that majority of them, apart from UBA and perhaps GTB and Diamond Bank, cannot give bonus this year or in the nearest future. So what is going to drive the prices?
As for insurance, there days are numbered with the upcoming POs they are planning to do. How can a can an insurance company that cannot make up to 400m a year be having shares outstanding of 5-10bn? And regarding them, not all is known. By the time the facts are down, you will be surprised that some petty insurance firms have jumbo outstanding shares than even some banks. First half of 2007 may not quite repeat itself, except fundamentals do no longer matter in the choice of shares in the capital market. Oasis? What have they recorded this year so far? NEM, just 333m PAT with outstanding shares that some calculators cannot carry Na look I de look. Una go come oooo. Well in insurance stocks na CICO, sometimes many times within a month. I still thank them for that opportunity sha

Silently reading . . . . .



                                                           

Good morning gurus!

WASKY-WAJA:

Good morning gurus!

Morning.

No,I aint no stocks guru yet.

But you!
Or should I say you and your friend .

I've decided that you are indeed a Phantom-of-the-Opera of sorts.

A stage-managing,guru-in-disguise,hood-winking us.Have myself a conspiracy theory here  .

Think I know who,too    .

Some posters on this our dear thread might even have double IDs  .

But y'all have thought of that;lots o'smarty pants in 'ere.  .

All good then. I guess.


                     

@ krrush, even if the guy is a hidden guru or has double id, we are learning something from all these.

He is making us to dialogue on a different issue, risk tolerance. Adding more flavor.

Thanks to all the contributors on the 40m loan. Lessons learnt! Ideas gathered!

Was in my friend’s house this morning to discourage him from taking the loan or at least press for a 1 year loan. He accepted to press for the 1 yr but will not back out from collecting the money entirely. I told him the implications though and the opinion of some guys in this forum. It seems his mind is made up and no going back. I called him a suicide bomber! Hahaha!!!

He agued that 2 things will either happen either he make money or he lose money on the loan!!! Chikena! He can never loose the entire principal and his 40% portfolio rather his 21% interest, To borrow from a contributor here He get liver!

I have looked at his strategy and I know it will work, ! Stock trading is a game of volume! And with 40m sure volume is there!

He made funny joke this morning in event he looses the money. He said:

There are only two things to worry about in the loan in 6 months, either you are well or you are sick.

If you are well,
then there is nothing to worry about. (Cos you will always make money).
But if you are sick,
There are Two things to worry about.
Either you will get well or you will die. If you get well, There is nothing to worry about.( cos you will always make another money).
If you die,
There are only Two things to worry about.
Either you will go to heaven or hell.
If you go to heaven, there is nothing to worry about.
But if you go to hell,
You'll be so damn busy shaking hands with Friends, Gurus, past market players, stock analysts, and some nairalanders etc. hahahaha!!!
You won't have time to worry about the 40m loan, !!!

Haven said the above; I now said he should increase the loan to 100m if possible but for 1 year at least to be on a safe side.

Wanaja thanks, Invissible thanks, Krrush, surprises, Abu-maryam, easimoni, Grabdaloot, Aktopgun, felo12, lawtycoon, and the rest GOD BLESS YOU ALL.

@ Invisible.
                      hi, have been a silent reader 4 a long time.
what do u think 250k can buy in first quarter.have told my broker ikeja hotel since the money is too small 4 UBA OR GTB.Am changing my broker so its taqkin some time to get new acct opened,but hope its opened b4 end of the week so i can still get ikeja hotel below 7:00

thanks

Ikeja hotels,

If we are to go by last closing price and volume traded, it will take the grace of almighty God to get the stock on monday. 170k units in 10 deals shows the speculators have started 'hoarding' it. On many occasions , our revered analysts have touted ikeja hotel as a good buy based on fundamental and the equally important timing- expected results. That ought to have been the right time to buy. our market is so dynamic, and one day indecision can make/cost you millions depending on how big you are. Making money in stock market largely depends on individual investors and the brokers you use. A slow broker can make you lose money big time if he fails to execute your other promptly. Yes prompt execution based on accurate timing oh. The CICO desciples will attest to this fact. If you are a long termer- all you need is the accuracy of your analysis/fundamentals in order to buy and sell. Your slow broker as it were has enough time to carry out your order,  however, if you belong to F02 camp, I will advice you change your slow broker first( if you have one) and come back to take more investment lessons on CICO from dem gurus, 

new readers should try and go back several pages to LEARN about stocks. The time you will spend reading several backlogs of mind-boggling discussions will help you become a better investor. If you are a newbie and you ask questions, you will definetely have answers to your questions based on seflessness of most people on this baord,  But it wont give you that 'precious' lesson you need to make you a better investor- a lesson that will serve you better than any tips you get by asking what to buy and what to sell.

happy investing!

@ACL, who said the 250k is too small for any stock? It can very well buy you UBA or any other stock for that matter, since value has no concern with volume, stock prices should not frighten anyone. Look at the quality and fundamentals of the stock as well.

Now, Ikeja hotels will be above 7.00 by monday, going by feelers from the market. But you can still get Union homes, nobody is too sure of Afribank, but the PE ranks among the lowest in the banking sector. You cant go wrong with Wapic.

Happy investing.

carolope:

Hello all,

I have been reading your write ups for quite a while now and I must say I'm impressed. Keep it up.

Chao.

Its good to read, but pls contribute your ideas too, we all can learn from you no matter how small you think the contributions are.

lawtycoon:

@Wanajo,
How you dey?Is it adviceable to buy Intercont.Bank now(for 6-9 months)

Since, wanajo has not replied this one, let us presume he has gone to church, or to pray. His assistants can try to step into his biiig shoes! and answer for him.
Intercontinental is a consistent performer, a very ambitious bank with very good management. Buying it for the 6-9 months will make sense if you can confirm that they will be allowed to pay dividens and or bonus this February (as opposed to new banks closing date of December)

We better confirm what the true impact of banks uniform closure date will be in the short run or all of us will watch as our bank stocks lose serious value, it may bounce back in the Q3, in preparation for Q4 2008.