eku, just been busy, but all is well. hope you're cool too.

In my view, over the next 25 yrs, Ogun state will prob emerge as the most industrialised state in Nigeria. But Ibadan/Oyo state need not despair & throw in the towel. Ultimately, the battel to be won is not just about 'industrialisation' but about 'development.' In this battle, Ibadan has a secret weapon which it can unleash to torpedo itself back up the rich league - that weapon? revert to being one of Africa's pre eminent research & education centres.

Remember this, Univ of Ibadan was once the leading uni in Africa & in the top 15 in the world. UCH was the pre eminent medical facility in Nigeria. IITA, an international research institute was unrivalled in the field of agro research in Africa, & the city has other  research centres of one kind or the other.

No other city in nigeria has the competitive advantage that Ibadan has in this area. If the authorities there can reawaken the spirit of education & research & get people coming again from all over Africa & the world to these institutions, billions of nara will be made & Ibadan will sit again close to the top echelon of the rich ladder in Nigeria,  Not only will Ibadan become once again a hot bed of academia, complimentary industries, such as biotech, industrial/product design, materials research & development etc may follow.

With good planning, returning Ibadan to its old glory can be achieved in 10-15 yrs. The question is, can the politicians commit to such long term  project.

Hmm, I'm inclined to agree with the OP, but maybe not for the same reasons postulated.
Lagos was the capital of Nigeria for many years, and thus gained an infrastructure/political stability advantage which other states haven't had. So it has unwittingly drawn the bulk of Nigeria's trade (and by implication most of its human and material resources) from elsewhere. It stopped being the capital in 1991, but (I think, not sure!) because of government's positioning of Abuja as an administrative capital, Lagos is still positioned to foreign investors as the financial and economic capital of Nigeria.

The SW states have also somehow (possibly due to the unstable political climate in the last couple of decades) failed to take advantage of the Lagos opportunity and attract some of that FDI to their states. Ogun is the biggest culprit here. Despite the opportunities created during the Murtala/OBJ years, creating Ota as a manufacturing zone, nothing else has happened since then. Unless there is a deliberate attempt by states like Ogun to bring Lagos business their way, I doubt things will change any time soon.

I can't really say much for the South East. They've managed to create their own internal trade networks within that region, and like the OP said, managed a reasonable transfer of wealth back home. But funny enough, apart from the trading activities in Onitsha and Aba (which incidentally still flows through Lagos), I don't really see much going on in the South East.

Missy85:

eku, just been busy, but all is well. hope you're cool too.

In my view, over the next 25 yrs, Ogun state will prob emerge as the most industrialised state in Nigeria.

Agreed.

But Ibadan/Oyo state need not despair & throw in the towel. Ultimately, the battel to be won is not just about 'industrialisation' but about 'development.' In this battle, Ibadan has a secret weapon which it can unleash to torpedo itself back up the rich league - that weapon? revert to being one of Africa's pre eminent research & education centres.

It is tough  Nigeria is not yet a country where R& is likely to have a huge impact. I'm not sure what the best path is for Oyo State. We just don't have the competitive advantage here in Africa, aside from possibly South Africa, imo.

ah well, we cant give up on the basis that we cant compete in researxh with developed countries.

Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand were not much better than us, if at all, 40 yrs ago, but they started from somewhere. Today, singapore is a leading medical research centre' at least within an Asian context.

Research industry in Ibadan doesnt need to be about competing with silicon valley about the next iphone. Again, it's about starting with a niche - poverty reduction, agro research, tropical diseases, malaria, sickle cell, child mortality, indeginous building materials for d 21st century,reafforestation with indeginous trees etc. I can go on.

These are important areas, but not necesssarily ones that researchers in silicon valley or Cambridge (Uk) are preoccupied with.

Dude. . . SW Nigeria still sucks @ss. Even if we are doing better than the SE, is that really so impressive? Undecided We aren't doing as well as Brazil or China. Or South Africa. Or Libya. Or Egypt Undecided

We cannot afford to rest at all. Look at Singapore which we were ahead of the 1960s and are now behind. Palm Oil which was a big business in the SW and Nigeria, now Malaysia is the leader (iirc).

Still a lot of work to be done, bruh.

that was in the then eastern region not western region.

I don't want to give up on research. There are some niches we could choose to dominate. Heathcare is potentially one; there are many others.

But almost all of these things require 24/7 power supply. There is no point talking about Ibadan (or any other city in Nigeria) becoming a research leader in anything (especially biology-related! Most of these bio experiments require very precise environments, which you need refrigeration and thus electricity to get!) until we face this power issue.

So that is what I mean about Nigeria not being a country where these things will be useful. . . yet.

asha 80:


that was in the then eastern region not western region.

Heh, my bad. Should have used a cocoa example. Hrm, I'm actually not sure why cocoa farming died in the SW. I need to read up and learn what caused it.

power is a problem, accepted, but we dont all sit at home & fold our arms because there's currently inadequate supply of it.

All the factories, banks, & other sectors of the economy run on power, even as things stand.
So, this seem a lame reason to do nothing. This is a 10-15 yr program, & if d blue print is well crafted, then power supply will be catered for. The fact power is inadequate today is not a reason to stand still.

When all is said & done we are generally inept at delivering this type of project. It is also clear to me that we lack the 'can do' spirit of the Asians.

eku_bear:

Heh, my bad. Should have used a cocoa example. Hrm, I'm actually not sure why cocoa farming died in the SW. I need to read up and learn what caused it.

well the base reason is the same thing that killed groundnut pyramids in the north and oil palm boom in the east.

OIL and structure we are running.

Cocoa farming is NOT dead in the SWest. Cocoa remains nigeria'a biggest non-oil export.

Total production has fallen from its hey day, mainly because most farms are now old, with trees yielding less & less. New farms are not coming up as quickly as old ones are coming to the end of production. But it remains a multi billion naira business.

eku_bear:

Heh, my bad. Should have used a cocoa example. Hrm, I'm actually not sure why cocoa farming died in the SW. I need to read up and learn what caused it.

Funny there was a show/report on NTA yesterday about our declining cocoa production. It was very sad to watch.

They went to those SW villages around the Ondo/Idanre/Akure axis to interview the cocoa farmers. The running theme was that their kids abandoned the farm for the cities, Lagos and corporate jobs.

Those old men still produce Tonnes of Cocoa aided by their wives and a few old labour hands and some young kids-mostly grand kids- from what I saw. But we seriously lag behind Ivory Coast and Ghana, I've come across stats placing us in 4th place behind Indonesia!

The few young men they interviewed in the report were cocoa buyers/exporters. They also spoke with the Ondo Gov. Mimiko, he acknowledge the decline too, talked about fertilizer subsidy and all. I'm not sure that's the real issue though. The decline is shameful. Hard to imagine that Cocoa was feeding Nigeria especially the SW before we found oil.

^-- This is actually the right time to enter agriculture, imo. Food prices worldwide are projected to increase rapidly. So there will be more money to be made over the next 20-30 years in agriculture.

Cocoa might not be the right crop, but certain other things (e.g., rice) might be.

Hrm. I'm told that acquiring big, contiguous plots of land in the SW is difficult though 

Less densely populated places like the middle belt are supposed to be a better bet.

eku_bear:

^-- This is actually the right time to enter agriculture, imo. Food prices worldwide are projected to increase rapidly. So there will be more money to be made over the next 20-30 years in agriculture.

Cocoa might not be the right crop, but certain other things (e.g., rice) might be.

Hrm. I'm told that acquiring big, contiguous plots of land in the SW is difficult though

Less densely populated places like the middle belt are supposed to be a better bet.

People are moving away from agriculture because it is very labour intensive, and mechanised farming can be very expensive as well. But, for a country like Nigeria, I can't think of anything more profitable than agriculture if you have the means.

Does any one have the 411 on Ota farm?

Is he making profits and what does he have on his farm?

fstranger3:

Does any one have the 411 on Ota farm?

Is he making profits and what does he have on his farm?

Large scale, mechanized farming is HUGELY profitable. My uncle tells me 30%+ ROI. I listened to some lectures this weekend discussing farming in southern Africa; I don't have the notes I took handy, but they are getting margins like this as well.

I dunno what OBJ is farming specifically though, or how he is doing.

Aigbofa:


People are moving away from agriculture because it is very labour intensive, and mechanised farming can be very expensive as well. But, for a country like Nigeria, I can't think of anything more profitable than agriculture if you have the means.

Yep. It is out of the financial reach of most people to setup a mechanized farm. You need a lot of land, technology, and cash to start it up.

AjanleKoko:

I can't really say much for the South East. They've managed to create their own internal trade networks within that region, and like the OP said, managed a reasonable transfer of wealth back home. But funny enough, apart from the trading activities in Onitsha and Aba (which incidentally still flows through Lagos), I don't really see much going on in the South East.

I need to one day visit Igboland and see what exactly they are doing there. I know so little about that region. What exactly do they trade or make? What is their competitive advantage? I've heard of "Aba-made". . . but how are they doing this at competitive prices w/o electricity and with the competition of China?

nigerians don't lack a 'can do' spirit.

in fact, they have too much of it lol.


a focus on education (specialization) is key to fighting the void that is Lagos. State need to learn to specialize, this is the key to success in the face of a place like Lagos

also, activities in the south east include a focus on tourism (like i said igbos go home to rest (work in the west, peace in the east), so places like Owerri, Uyo, Calabar, and PH has really honed in on tourism and recreation, not as much as they should though imo

Owerri built it's first mall (Aladinma), hosts a Concorade hotel, a Disney hotel, and i know of a zoo but idk where it was at (went when i was little)


i think tourism, services, microfinance, information technology, and consumer goods are key to success in the south east
and heavy industry the key to success in the west.


with both bus manufactures in Nigeria being in the SE though, maybe the SE will take the heavy industry title as well, idk.