garfield1:
Umahi left because of wike and pdp refusing to zone to the south east.will you say that ayade and udom and seriake,okowa agreed to give buhari 25%? What of rochas?

That was why when I was speaking I concentrated everything on Abia. I didn't speak outside the SE. Umahi used that to leave, Wike was not his problem. He started with Buhari in the APP or so, hence it is normal for him to cite a reason no matter how dubious. Now APC didn't zone to SE, has he left the Party?

When I said left itself opened down south,I meant ss/se..I didnt mean they lost the region.I meant while they tried to divide apc strongholds,apc divided theirs and got the requisite 25%..you know in presidential elections,it is not just about winning but winning heavily and getting the spread..

In 2019, Buhari was the factor not the Party. He was the incumbent and it is normal to negotiate.

Now, There is nothing PDP will have done.
The APC is more worried with an Atiku nomination than with a Wike own. If PDP had zoned it South, Wike will win the election before the first ballot.
There was nothing they would have done to placate the SE except hand them the ticket but politics doesn't work that way. Let me also tell you that if Obi was Vice, the momentum you see in the SE now will not swell that much. It is getting traction only and only because Obi is on the ballot. If PDP conceded to an Obi, what becomes of the SS with a higher voting strength? You now ask yourself why we didn't put some force into PVC registration all these years except now.
That's how you bargain....with numbers. If there is one positive for Obi's aspiration, it is the political inclusivity it has brought for us.
Food for thoughts.

From your calculations,you have been underrating obi.you seem to believe that obi won't win his region.I don't know why igbos are so vested in atiku

I used to be an idealist but not anymore.
The winner of 2023 will be between APC and PDP (If I know that, then why should I deceive myself).

The Country has a problem with voting a SEner, unless the Parties zone it there or there is a Yar'Adua-Jonathan situation forget it. That's the bitter truth. It will change one day, hopefully.

helinues:


Rivers state, so many factors should determine that. If Wike is not Osun state today, then he might work for Tinubu, Wike needs presidential pardon, he can't gamble with that.

Akwa Ibom, heavy spending should bring out the 25%.

Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Delta state are not sure

Wike needs presidential pardon on what exactly, cos last time I checked there is a subsisting perpetual injunction from the supreme Court of Nigeria preventing the EFCC, ICPC and any government agency from interrogating any Rivers state government official.

garfield1:


Like in 2019

There was no Muslim/Muslim ticket in 2019

Vistra40:


There was no Muslim/Muslim ticket in 2019

Christians voted atiku

garfield1:


Christians voted atiku

Hello sir! The Christians that voted buhari then will not vote a MM ticket next year.

fergie001:
That was why when I was speaking I concentrated everything on Abia. I didn't speak outside the SE. Umahi used that to leave, Wike was not his problem. He started with Buhari in the APP or so, hence it is normal for him to cite a reason no matter how dubious. Now APC didn't zone to SE, has he left the Party?


In 2019, Buhari was the factor not the Party. He was the incumbent and it is normal to negotiate.

Now, There is nothing PDP will have done.
The APC is more worried with an Atiku nomination than with a Wike own. If PDP had zoned it South, Wike will win the election before the first ballot.
There was nothing they would have done to placate the SE except hand them the ticket but politics doesn't work that way. Let me also tell you that if Obi was Vice, the momentum you see in the SE now will not swell that much. It is getting traction only and only because Obi is on the ballot. If PDP conceded to an Obi, what becomes of the SS with a higher voting strength? You now ask yourself why we didn't put some force into PVC registration all these years except now.
That's how you bargain....with numbers. If there is one positive for Obi's aspiration, it is the political inclusivity it has brought for us.
Food for thoughts.


I used to be an idealist but not anymore.
The winner of 2023 will be between APC and PDP (If I know that, then why should I deceive myself).

The Country has a problem with voting a SEner, unless the Parties zone it there or there is a Yar'Adua-Jonathan situation forget it. That's the bitter truth. It will change one day, hopefully.

Even if obi doesnt win in 2023,2031 won't pass him by.its a matter of time.so umahi was once in anpp? I also heard that Julius ucha was a senator on anpp platform too...

Ayade just won the senate ticket.I believe umahi and others will toe same line...dansuki has left PDP.I feel sorry for crs pd

Vistra40:


Hello sir! The Christians that voted buhari then will not vote a MM ticket next year.

They will divide between obi and atiku.

helinues:


Ebonyi
Imo
Edo
Cross River
Bayelsa
Akwa Ibom
Rivers most likely

Akwa ibom?

garfield1:


Even if obi doesnt win in 2023,2031 won't pass him by.its a matter of time.so umahi was once in anpp? I also heard that Julius ucha was a senator on anpp platform too...

Ayade just won the senate ticket.I believe umahi and others will toe same line...dansuki has left PDP.I feel sorry for crs PDP

Umahi started with the APP or ANPP (Can't remember).

Umahi and Ayade will go through. The Senate next year will be a mess. Oshiomhole, Umahi, Ikpeazu, Bagudu. I don't just know what to say.

fergie001:

Umahi started with the APP or ANPP (Can't remember).

Umahi and Ayade will go through. The Senate next year will be a mess. Oshiomhole, Umahi, Ikpeazu, Bagudu. I don't just know what to say.

Ikpeazu might lose to abaribe. Aba is apga.ukwa should go with apga.obingwa will be shared so you see,it favours abaribe... I think lolo and badaru bought tickets too.

garfield1:


Ikpeazu might lose to abaribe. Aba is apga.ukwa should go with apga.obingwa will be shared so you see,it favours abaribe... I think lolo and badaru bought tickets too.

I don't want Ikpeazu in that senate at all. I wish Abaribe wins

garfield1:
Ikpeazu might lose to abaribe. Aba is apga.ukwa should go with apga.obingwa will be shared so you see,it favours abaribe... I think lolo and badaru bought tickets too.

You can imagine the kind of Senate we will be having next year.....Kai.

Since Wabara left there in 2007, it has been Abaribe who himself is a former Deputy-Governor. Is Abia South Senate reserved for Abaribe? You can see, he doesn't have the sentiments on his side.

The APC person will even have more sentiments than Abaribe. She has a PhD from UNIPORT, studied at UNILAG, married a well-known Pharmacist from Aba. Has held several positions in Aba North Constituency and was also a two-time HoA member representing the Constituency.

Just that the power of a Governor is just too strong.

fergie001:

You can imagine the kind of Senate we will be having next year.....Kai.

Since Wabara left there in 2007, it has been Abaribe who himself is a former Deputy-Governor. Is Abia South Senate reserved for Abaribe? You can see, he doesn't have the sentiments on his side.

The APC person will even have more sentiments than Abaribe. She has a PhD from UNIPORT, studied at UNILAG, married a well-known Pharmacist from Aba. Has held several positions in Aba North Constituency and was also a two-time HoA member representing the Constituency.

Just that the power of a Governor is just too strong.

I don't know that apc woman but if she ccan win aba and win ukwa,it will be ok.ikpeazu is an unpopular gov so his power will be whittled plus he will face his obingwa brother

garfield1:
I don't know that apc woman but if she ccan win aba and win ukwa,it will be ok.ikpeazu is an unpopular gov so his power will be whittled plus he will face his obingwa brother

The Ngwans are like the Northerners. Even the APC Ngwa people will likely even vote him. Ukwa don't have the numerical strength to fight.

The man has not done well, but what will one do?

garfield1:


They will divide between obi and atiku.

And Muslim won’t divide between tinubu and atiku?

fergie001:
The Ngwans are like the Northerners. Even the APC Ngwa people will likely even vote him. Ukwa don't have the numerical strength to fight.

The man has not done well, but what will one do?

Oga,northerners dont vote blindly and sheepishly like south east oh.it is just obingwa and ugwunagbo that will determine.dont forget that several incumbent govs up north lost their bid to the senate

Vistra40:


And Muslim won’t divide between tinubu and atiku?

With how Christians are criticizingMuslims verbally,they may decide to vote enmasse for tinubu

garfield1:


Oga,northerners dont vote blindly and sheepishly like south east oh.it is just obingwa and ugwunagbo that will determine.dont forget that several incumbent govs up north lost their bid to the senate

That was a Buhari tsunami not that they lost.
Buhari is the most powerful politician alive in present-day Nigeria.

garfield1:


With how Christians are criticizingMuslims verbally,they may decide to vote enmasse for tinubu

Oh! That’s what you are holding on to... I get it

fergie001:
That was a Buhari tsunami not that they lost.
Buhari is the most powerful politician alive in present-day Nigeria.

An obi tsunami is coming

garfield1:
An obi tsunami is coming

You can tell that to neophytes not me for reasons you know. An Obi resurgence only helps Tinubu and that's all.
However, I cannot criticise it...everyone is entitled to his or her vote.

Obi-Ngwa and Ugwunagbo LGAs you mentioned are neighbours and that's where PDP deals the most brutal blows.

Ugwunagbo has the largest voting strength after Obi-Ngwa, Umuahia North and Ohafia LGAs. Then they are closely followed if not presently usurped by each of the Isiala-Ngwa LGAs. All the LGAs in Abia North (except Ohafia) is not up to only Obi-Ngwa LGA. ​So PDP simply went for voting strength and not morality or ideology which for me isn't even right but .......they will say "all is fair in war."

The APC Senatorial Candidate was the SDP Guber candidate for 2019 where despite Buhari having more than 25%, Uche Ogah couldn't get same.

I don't know why you guys are using 2019 election as a reference to this election...
It's a different ball game altogether.....

Buhari is like a God in the north he has cult followers, and the election was between two major parties both candidates from the north....
Meaning there will be low votes turn out in the south and that's what happened....
Compare 2019 election with 2015 election where a souther was contesting.....


Now 2023 has four major players.
First of all.
Ive not been to the north or west before but if you follow there voting pattern with the past...
Putting all factors together....

N.w always always votes for there own...
Even when we had pdp in power and they were pdp states....
Buhari always won that region....
Buhari isn't contesting this time which throws the party open...
N.w has a voting strength of 10m on average....

We have kwankwanso aiming to eat from there...
Atiku is a popular household name there now., Having contested the previous time...
Tinubu going under the influence of Buhari...
And Obi going under the a better Nigeria mantra......
Now who do you think will win here

If we are to be honest with our self we know that the win will be between kwankwanso and atiku let's be honest...


North EAST.....

this is atiku home region without a doubt,
Kwankwanso as a fulani man will also have his influence here....
Tinubu with Apc.
And obi as a Christian....

Let's be honest who do you think will win here...
Atiku lost here because he was contesting with buhari who is like a God in the North...
Atiku comes second with such portfolio and
N.E has a voting strength of about 5million

Atiku will win this region we know Nigeria vote along tribal and religious lines let's leave that aside.......


NORTH CENTRAL.
The region has the same voting pattern of the west...
The follow the north why some follow the south..
But this region is known the following any trending political opponent...
Gej 2011, Buhari 2015 and 19...

Who will win this region is a tricky one...

But I'm giving it to tinubu but it will be very very very tight between the four opponents...

Let's say 45,40,35,30%

Something of sort.....

This region has a voting strength of about 5million might increase slightly and expect voters aparthy here cus none of the leading candidate is from the region......

SOUTH WEST....
how vote is done here isn't new to anyone..
But something is new there son is on the ballot .
Voters turn out should be massive but as it always has been they ain't known for giving block votes even there son obj contested will that change well the current polity isn't changing that...

Being the economic home of the nation we have somany none indigenes in the rejoin that can influence the minds of the indigenous people in this region and coupled...
They don't vote between religious lines because both religion is well represented


Apc is winning here for sure...
But the margin won't be as wide as other candidates will win there own region....

Voting strength 5 million....

Labour party will do better than pdp here...
West is known for voting unpopular parties remember ribadu

helinues:


I have always been saying election is a process. I doubt if any of the opposition ever bother to ask which company INEC would award the printing of ballot papers and election materials to.

The last election was postponed because the previous printer couldn't meet up

I know where they're printed in lag

SOUTH SOUTH....

south south is pdp baby,. But will that sentiment change we only get to find out .
There son was the president under pdp so it's normal to be voted massively for....
Was removed and 2019 buhari it's only normal for this region to vote massively against Buhari that removed Gonathan....

2023 is different game...
The hate for Buhari might be transferred to Tinubu under Apc because it is generally believeed he masterminded coup lol....

If labour is going to win massively here they need to remind them that atiku of pdp was part of that coup and watch the party scatter....

With pdp hurting Wike, and Apc hurting Amaechi and Gonathan, the engine room of this region..

South South Moves in the sam direction as the east so it's good to say labour will win the region and the battle will be between labour and pdp...

That's if labour plays there card properly...
They should get at least 60% from this region....
Voting strength around 5 million...
This region is known for giving block vote that might change but won't be much.

SOUTH EAST.
Just like the North West they vote in cult like pattern if they choose a name that's who they follow....
Buhari is hated in this region but trust me Tinubu tops the chart...
They frown against corrupt individuals and triablist one reason why buhari was hated because they felt he's coming with Muslim agenda don't forget this region is christain dominated....

They region is going for labor without a doubt massively...
Labour should get around 80% votes here ..
That might be declared a failure...
Don't forget atiku and Gonathan got about 90 and 97% from this region...
Labour figure will be high...

Region voting strength isnt stable reduced drastically from 4.5m in 2011 to 3m in 2015 and 2.7m in 2019...
We know why it wasn't there son that was contesting..... Im those election especially 2019


Labour will be hoping and praying for about 4.5 million or higher from this region.....


This is my basic analysis....

Honestly I will say Pdp is at advantage here... Is atiku can inherit buhari votes ....
But labour party will be happier Is kwankwanso remains on the ballot...
Tinubu plan should be to convince kwankwanso to step down and collapse his followers to him else that won't be good....


Advice for each party PDP.

Pdp should focus on getting a chuck of votes from north east and north west...
Best still convince kwankwanso to step down openly for atiku that will be the end of the election cus they already have national spread....

Advice for Apc.
Anyhow you look at, they are more handicapped then the others reason been that Apc isn't loved in the east and south, west doesn't give block votes same as north central regions he can influence very well

Goal should be to convince kwankwanso to collapse his structure publicly for Apc...
That will make the contest more interesting and stiff for this candidates...
Focus on getting block votes from north central and a good chunk from n.e...
Any thing aside this is a loss....

Labour party.
Anyhow you look at it...
The only disadvantage is this party isn't popular
But he's second most advantageous behind atiku if they can play there card right...

Forget the north west and north east just pray that kwankwanso is on the ballot to reduce north west high voting power...
As the only christain he might be able to get christian votes from n.e and n.w thou not much...
Focus on the south south and north central...

If he can win get 40% from here...
30 or 40% from the west...
60% to 70% from the south south and 90% from the east that's enough to make him president if the contest remains between the four parties....

That's why I said focus on south south and north central cus the message of labor party can be accepted easily in this regions than the major north...

Nnpp
Don't count them out, if kwankwanso can inherit buhari followers he's good...
He has such influence as buhari but will the north opt for him or atiku he can only win if atiku steps down openly for him and collapse his structure....
But I think what kwankwanso is trying to do is to position himself for the next election 2027 so I don't see him stepping down...
Cus If he can gather 6million votes from the north he will be the bride of the major parties come 2027 that will be his bargaining chips...
Same as obi thou.....

So 2023 will be very interesting...
Any one that wins would definitely work hard for it...
And it will be a close call between alll parties