SU50:


Northerners are quite smart when it comes to these things, they are not given into hype and noise. Kwankwaso will get votes, but not enough to pose any threat, like I and others said on this thread, he might win in one state and get a few thousand votes here and there, nothing substantial. People know that he cannot win, so why waste votes on him?

In the north, its straight off between tinubu and atiku, nothing more.

Tinubu has more advantages. The only advantage atiku has is that he is a northerner

tctrills:

That is actually APC's only hope. That other PC candidates would rub off on the presidential. It is not mostly like that. We have seen states vote for PDP governor and Buhari in the presidential. It happened in 2007, 2011, and even 2019.

They loved Buhari, but they dont love atiku

SU50:


With all the noise and hype, PDP will still have a good outing there.

Anything short of a win is a bad outing

garfield1:


Kano cannot flip to pdp.it can only flip to a familiar person like kwankwaso because he is a factor in the state.atiku has never been a factors here.just as rivers,bayelsa,Enugu cannot flip to apc,kano,zamfara,katsina cannot flip to pdp...it will take years.
You said most of those candidates will fight for their local elections very true but the ones that are popular will still attract votes to apc.some of those voting for popular people like ado alhassan will vote tinubu by default.pdp does not have popular candidates like these that will attract votes for atiku.they only person they have is the guber candidate abacha who isn't very popular and he will only focus on his guber ambition.again,he has several court cases.ganduje is not contesting anything,he is focusing on gawuna and tinubu.nobody is fighting for atiku so you see atiku will fail here

Never said PDP will take kano, I said flipped against APC. If you know what's protest vote, its what's happening against APC in the north. A north that has never liked atiku is rallying round him mainly as a result of APC failure. Everyone dissatisfied with APC and not keen on kwakwaso is going PDP way, just like what happened with buhari in 2015, he didn't have big wigs (in power then, in the north fighting for him, in fact most of them fought against him), despite that he emerged and those big wigs were retired.

Almost the same support given to buhari in 2015 is what atiku has. It matter not if he has big wigs(he does, mostly underground people), the the direction has changed.

Like I pointed out earlier, with the exception of 2 or 3 states in the north, the rest are either radical in their voting approaches (which does not favour APC currently) or PDP strongholds (Benue, taraba, plateau).

Tinubu progressive dan siyasa ne, kawar elrufia da ganduje yake, duba yarda yar maida Lagos State.. kuma nasan ze mu arewa aiki sosia, duk abandoned projects na Buhari kawar KD-kano railway, AKK gas pipeline duk ze gama su.. duba shettima kuma, yarda ya gaira borno state.. this is a competent ticket with all shades of achievement, we can't lose this opportunity

Walahi Atiku sata kawai ze zo yayi, duk kudin da yayi wasting a campaign tun 1999 sai ya mayar dasu .. su dino melaye fa abokanen sa!! Haba mutumina ka duba banbanci

Ni Dan zaamfara ne fa, Amma walahi nasan ba abunda Atiku ze my arewa.. Wanda kullun yana dubai

SU50:


Mutumina kasan yadda voting pattern yake a dukka wuraren nan. By the way, mai sa kake supporting APC?

Aufbauh:



The problem with someone of you guys is that you'all use your emotion to make analysis.

The fact & record remains that:
1) Some people mostly the unedited rural voters who are in the majority will still vote along party line.

2) Every sitting Governor's party has
always come second at least in every general election.

3) Every sitting Governor has always manage to secure at least 40-45% vote for his party especially up north.

4) Presidential elections are won by mostly uneducated rural voters and not the noisy educated populace.

5) Election results are determined by what happened on the election day & not the perennial optics.

6) Nigeria politicians will always find their way around any new created law or act.

2&3 are false.
There are enough evidence to debunk them.
Go and verify

garfield1:


Anything short of a win is a bad outing

Not when he can make up for it from the north and SS.

garfield1:


They loved Buhari, but they dont love atiku

I never liked Atiku but I am campaigning for him, there are thousands like me.

garfield1:


Tinubu has more advantages. The only advantage atiku has is that he is a northerner

I wish that was true, but it's not. APC has nothing to campaign with in the north, insecurity, bad economy, corruption everything we hated PDP for, APC has become.

SU50:


Not when he can make up for it from the north and SS.

Oga,pdp road to victory has always been from the Ss/se not north.for one to win,you need to win the north and one southern region or win the south and one northern region very well.balewa couldn't do this in 1960 hence the coalition govt.shagari won ss massively in 1979,abiola won nc massively in 1993.atiku cannot win any southern region.he can only win ss narrowly.he will struggle in the north

[quote author=garfield1 post=116044817]

They loved Buhari, but they dont love atiku[/quote Wrong, but your opinion.

SU50:


Never said PDP will take kano, I said flipped against APC. If you know what's protest vote, its what's happening against APC in the north. A north that has never liked atiku is rallying round him mainly as a result of APC failure. Everyone dissatisfied with APC and not keen on kwakwaso is going PDP way, just like what happened with buhari in 2015, he didn't have big wigs (in power then, in the north fighting for him, in fact most of them fought against him), despite that he emerged and those big wigs were retired.

Almost the same support given to buhari in 2015 is what atiku has. It matter not if he has big wigs(he does, mostly underground people), the the direction has changed.

Like I pointed out earlier, with the exception of 2 or 3 states in the north, the rest are either radical in their voting approaches (which does not favour APC currently) or PDP strongholds (Benue, taraba, plateau).

You lie.majority of the pdp bigwigs in the north sabotaged gej.firstly,sokoto,kano,Adamawa,kwara governors decamped to apc.secondly,people like lamido in jigawa,muazu in niger stayed back to sabotage gej.people like shema,idris in kogi,yuguda in bauchi remained neutral.the northern elders were against gej.the north believed that it was their turn.but in 2023,the north knows it is the turn of the south.majority of the northern governors are supporting piwershift.eve most of the northern elders are not with atiku.have you seen any northern governor defecting to pdp? Only tambuwal,saraki,fintiri and bala are with atiku and they are not influential.tambuwal is up against wamakko in sokoto,a lot of his aides have defected.bala is up against a popular saduq abubakar so he has no time for atiku.same for fintiri.saraki is finished in kwara.atiku does not have that human resources to make it...

The same support given to buhari is not given to atiku.the north have been voting buhari,they are used to him.they are not used to atiku.he is too liberal and western.in 2015 most of the core north were apc territories.pdp doesnt have any territory there.kwankwaso and peter obi are there to share votes unlike 2915 where it was just buhari vs gej.no bloc votes for atiku.

[quote author=tctrills post=116045409][/quote]

I am right.atiku is not a fanatic

SU50:


I wish that was true, but it's not. APC has nothing to campaign with in the north, insecurity, bad economy, corruption everything we hated PDP for, APC has become.

Pdp has nothing to campaign in the north.atiku is a failure too

SU50:


I never liked Atiku but I am campaigning for him, there are thousands like me.

It is not overwhelming like buhari had.kwankwaso is there to divide votes

garfield1:


I am right.atiku is not a fanatic

And Kwakwanso?

ItsTutsi:
Tinubu progressive dan siyasa ne, kawar elrufia da ganduje yake, 1. duba yarda yar maida Lagos State.. kuma nasan ze mu arewa aiki sosia, duk abandoned projects na Buhari kawar KD-kano railway, AKK gas pipeline duk ze gama su.. duba shettima kuma, yarda ya gaira borno state.. this is a competent ticket with all shades of achievement, we can't lose this opportunity

2. Walahi Atiku sata kawai ze zo yayi, duk kudin da yayi wasting a campaign tun 1999 sai ya mayar dasu .. su dino melaye fa abokanen sa!! Haba mutumina ka duba banbanci

Ni Dan zaamfara ne fa, Amma walahi nasan ba abunda Atiku ze my arewa.. Wanda kullun yana dubai

I like your submission. Amman a gani na dukka candidates yan iska ne, kawai dai a duba Wanda yafi dama dama cikinsu a dauka.

Har yanzu ban gama sa rai a kan Wanda zan zaba ba, Amman, in a gani na, tinubu kawai hype ne da shi yasin.

1. Maganan yanda ya mayar da Lagos, gani na bai wani aikin da za a ce wai legas ta kai wani matsayi ba. Ya kamata kasan cewa legas port city tun run, run kafi independence. Sannan, tazo tai capital city na tarayya wanda duk wata budget ake ware mata data federation account, in ka duba tarihi, legas babban gari ne run kafin tinubu ya dawo gwamna.

Babban abun da nake tsoro da mulkin yarabwa shi ne munafuncin su, gaba daya economy na najeriya an kara shi ne a kan legas, kuma baza su bari a taba samun ci gaba ba wanda bai shafesu ba. Su sukai adawa da katsina to maradi(at the same time suna kiran buhari yaje legas ya kara buda musu tituna da wannan kudin da zai aikin katsina - maradi, wato in aiki ba legas ko SW yake ba bai da amfani), su suka ki a buda sea ports a east, saboda zai kawo ma arewa da kama east ci gaba wanda ba sai an dogara da legas ba, sun yadda a ci gaba da sha n wahala wurin shigar ta fitar da kayyaki ta legas a kan a bude wasu ports.

2. Maganar sata na Atiku kuma a gani na kawai karyace, babban hujjan da ak e aiki dashi ace barawo ne shineittafin obasanjo, zaka sha mamaki, kusan dukkan kamfanoni da aka sayar a zamanin obj ( mutanen obj ne suka sa, ma'ana na kusa da shi, Amman suna aiki da cewa Atiku ne chairman na privitzation council suce ya sayar ma abokansa), obj in ka sanshi mutum ne makaryaci wanda bai gani wani in ba kasnhi ba (kai bincike a kan sa run saga role nashi a civil war bar zuwa ya dawo civilian).

Sannan shi tinubun ko kasan issue na kamfaninsa alpha beta wanda suke karbar 10% na duk haraji da aka remitting was legas, ba corruption bane sitting governor yayi irin wannan deal din?

Abu daya da Atiku shine, yana da wani Abu, in an tuhume shi da Abu, bai musawa, haka zai ci gaba da tafiya da wannan abun, gaskiya ko Katya, shine babban abun da ya cuce shi kuma hat yanzu yana da wannan abun (duba case din wike da yadda shi tinubu ya approaching issue da kuma yadda Atiku ya approaching din shi).

Tinubu na da media wanda zasu wanke shi a kan ko wace karya da badakala take so ya watsa (misali, yanda suke nuna a matsyain wanda yai fighting ma June 12, wanda in kasa tinubu a ciki to baka cire Atiku saboda kowa da role din da ya playing Amman sun maida shi komai na tinubu, hakanan zaben buhari, SW basu bawa buhari kurian da yakai 1m, Amman ana nuna mana cewa tinubu ne ya kawo buhari, wanda in contribution na kudi ne zaka sa Amaechi, atiku, kwakwaso da sauransu, 2019 in area ta relying da SW buhari bai komawa office, Amman sun maida komai Lamar su sukai komai, ba wanda yai wani Abu dai su.

garfield1:


It is not overwhelming like buhari had. kwankwaso is there to divide votes

Kwakwaso is not going any where, put your mid to rest.

SU50:


Kwakwaso is not going any where, put your mid to rest.

He is surely going to divide votes

tctrills:
And Kwakwanso?

He is that is why they love him.he defends northern interests

garfield1:


Pdp has nothing to campaign in the north.atiku is a failure too

I say protest vote, anything but apc. Besides in PDP days, the economy is not this bad, the ostrich behaviours regarding corruption is also not this bad.

garfield1:


He is that is why they love him.he defends northern interests

Guy, I am a northerner fgs.

SU50:


I say protest vote, anything but apc. Besides in PDP days, the economy is not this bad, the ostrich behaviours regarding corruption is also not this bad.

Protest vote is also going to labour and nnpp

garfield1:


He is that is why they love him.he defends northern interests

So they don't love Atiku and would not vote for him but the love Kwankwaso and would not vote for him. I see

tctrills:
So they don't love Atiku and would not vote for him but the love Kwankwaso and would not vote for him. I see

The votes will he divided between the three but tinubu will slightly have more votes

SU50:


Just talking about antecedents.

Why do you think tinubu is not putting his mind to the south east and only giving mild attention to the SS?

SS is a PDP zone. Wike should try crossing to the APC to sell tinubu now. Where is akpabio? Despite osho and obaseki, APC couldn't win Edo in 2015 and 2019.

As for SE, there are still very strong PDP men there, and PDP is still popular in certain places there. Even if obi garners votes (assume majority), the next possible outcome is PDP will come second.

Who are the strong men there?

I guess Ikpeazu,Ihedioha, Ugwuanyi are among right? I tell you these men won't win there Ward for PDP.

Uche Ekwunife, senator representing Anambra central was booed by youths in awka when she came to campaign for Atiku. Every grassroot Politician in the SE will not work against Obi.


My boss is the PDP ward chairman of my ward,he told me personally that our Ward will vote for Obi, he's only scared that OBIdient movement wouldn't influence other electoral posts.

I run grassroot mobilization for Peter Obi,I involve in Political outreach. More than 90 percent of the people we have met were for Obi before we even reached out to them, I am telling you of people in the rural area mostly elders. Our only work was sensitizing them about the labour party Logo.

Bro perish the thoughts of PDP getting anything tangible from SE,it will not happen.

garfield1:


You lie.majority of the pdp bigwigs in the north sabotaged gej.firstly,sokoto,kano,Adamawa,kwara governors decamped to apc.secondly,people like. 1. lamido in jigawa,muazu in niger stayed back to sabotage gej.people like shema,idris in kogi,yuguda in bauchi remained neutral.the northern elders were against gej.the north believed that it was their turn.but in 2023,the north knows it is the turn of the south. 2. majority of the northern governors are supporting piwershift.eve most of the northern elders are not with atiku.have you seen any northern governor defecting to pdp? Only tambuwal,saraki,fintiri and bala are with atiku and they are not influential.tambuwal is up against wamakko in sokoto,a lot of his aides have defected. 3. bala is up against a popular saduq abubakar so he has no time for atiku.same for fintiri.saraki is finished in kwara.atiku does not have that human resources to make it...

The same support given to buhari is not given to atiku.the north have been voting buhari,they are used to him.they are not used to atiku.he is too liberal and western. 4. in 2015 most of the core north were apc territories.pdp doesnt have any territory there. 5. kwankwaso and peter obi are there to share votes unlike 2915 where it was just buhari vs gej.no bloc votes for atiku.

1. Lamido sabotaged gej? You don't know what you are saying. Those guys stood tall, but there was nothing they can do about buhari's election( reason why I kept pointing out to you how radical the north is in terms of voting), there as nothing they can do.

2. Some of us saw the Asaba declaration last year and we laughed within us, we knew what was brewing. APC groomed southerners in it to take over, it was very clear right from buhari's first tenure that APC is giving its ticket to a southerner, either of tinubu, osinbajo or Amaechi, but in PDP, no one from the south assumed leadership position on a national level.

So that Asaba declaration was just APC govs from the south who knew that they are ready outsmarting their PDP counterparts into a so called 'southern allainace' , they just wanted it carry weight and present the illusion of a united front, the PDP govs fall for that.

APC govs from the north were never interested in the head of the ticket, all their plays was hinged on VP and other positions in the party.

Now PDP gave its ticket to its strongest contender,(they want to win election not massage wike's ego) while APC gave its ticket to a southerner (it was already in the works way before).

3. If you know anything about bauchi politics you won't say this, I won't say beyond this.

4. Take out sokoto, borno, yobe and kano in 2015, tell me which other state is apc.

5. Kwakwaso is not going anywhere whereas the demography you depend on for PO's votes in the north are already into seomthing of their own.

Northern politics is not about hype and noise, if it were, kwakwaso would already be crusing all over the north but that's not the case.

garfield1:


Protest vote is also going to labour and nnpp

Lol, OK.

Aufbauh:



The problem with someone of you guys is that you'all use your emotion to make analysis.

The fact & record remains that:
1) Some people mostly the unedited rural voters who are in the majority will still vote along party line.

2) Every sitting Governor's party has
always come second at least in every general election.

3) Every sitting Governor has always manage to secure at least 40-45% vote for his party especially up north.

4) Presidential elections are won by mostly uneducated rural voters and not the noisy educated populace.

5) Election results are determined by what happened on the election day & not the perennial optics.

6) Nigeria politicians will always find their way around any new created law or act.

I agree with you to some extent. However, if you consider a state like Kano, they voted APC massively because of Buhari in last Presidential election but turned to Kwankwanso's candidate in PDP during Gubernatorial election. It took a rerun before APC could upturn the result.
Hence without Buhari on the ballot, it will be difficult for APC to retain Kano and some other states in the north.
The votes of the rural northerners will be shared between Kwankwanso and Tinubu. The rural northerners with minds of their own will vote Kwankwanso since he has a similar ideology with Buhari. Those influence by their leaders will likely vote Tinubu while most elite will vote Atiku and a few for Obi.
With this, Tinubu chances will be threatened because he needs to dominate the north like buhari to win.

tctrills:
That's Tinubu's only chance. He needs the northerners to vote APC again.

A repeat of 2015 is not possible, a Northerner who was part of 2019 and is running again. He caused APC some votes &states in the North. Expect some surprises.

SU50:


1. Lamido sabotaged gej? You don't know what you are saying. Those guys stood tall, but there was nothing they can do about buhari's election( reason why I kept pointing out to you how radical the north is in terms of voting), there as nothing they can do.

2. Some of us saw the Asaba declaration last year and we laughed within us, we knew what was brewing. APC groomed southerners in it to take over, it was very clear right from buhari's first tenure that APC is giving its ticket to a southerner, either of tinubu, osinbajo or Amaechi, but in PDP, no one from the south assumed leadership position on a national level.

So that Asaba declaration was just APC govs from the south who knew that they are ready outsmarting their PDP counterparts into a so called 'southern allainace' , they just wanted it carry weight and present the illusion of a united front, the PDP govs fall for that.

APC govs from the north were never interested in the head of the ticket, all their plays was hinged on VP and other positions in the party.

Now PDP gave its ticket to its strongest contender,(they want to win election not massage wike's ego) while APC gave its ticket to a southerner (it was already in the works way before).

3. If you know anything about bauchi politics you won't say this, I won't say beyond this.

4. Take out sokoto, borno, yobe and kano in 2015, tell me which other state is apc.

5. Kwakwaso is not going anywhere whereas the demography you depend on for PO's votes in the north are already into seomthing of their own.

Northern politics is not about hype and noise, if it were, kwakwaso would already be crusing all over the north but that's not the case.

Factors that will influence northern votes and have always influenced are:
Northern interests: after buhari,no one defends northern interest like kwankwaso and then shettima.so voters here will go for kwa and tinubu.
Religion; voters here will go for tinubu and kwankwaso;
Sentiments: atiku and kwankwaso are from the north so people being sentimental will vote in like manner like you.
Party: the north have never liked pdp.it is apc and then others.
Elders: a lot might hate buhari but some will still vote for his party.only few elders here are canvassing for atiku

So you see,atiku can't win.bauchi has always given buhari his third highest votes after kano and katsina.they are fanatical and radical and will rather go for rabiu.in 2019,atiku won only in Christian dominated areas in the north which means Muslims despised him.yaradua who is a small boy compared to atiku divided the north and defeated buhari in katsina and sokoto.a whole atiku took third in Adamawa.in 2019,atiku couldn't divide northern votes.he failed in his own north east.he lost his unit and ward,he is overrated.the votes he got are because of the pdp structure.

Sokoto is not even apc.the governor is pdp.buhari struggled to win sokoto in 2019.therefore,sokoto is a place atiku should win apart from Adamawa and taraba but tinubu will do very well in sokoto.tinubu us more likely to win kebbi than sokoto.places in the north where atiku will win he will do so narrowly but tinubu will win borno,yobe,zamfara,katsina massively which will give him advantage against atiku....

Lamido and muazu babangida opposed gej 2nsld term bid in 2014.they rebelled against gej alongside wamakko and amechi but at the last minute refused to defect.dont forget myazu said gej signed an agreement in 2011 not to recontest which means he couldn't have supported gej....
In 2015 the north was united for power to return to north.in 2023,they are divided.

MikeofAfrica:


I agree with you to some extent. However, if you consider a state like Kano, they voted APC massively because of Buhari in last Presidential election but turned to Kwankwanso's candidate in PDP during Gubernatorial election. It took a rerun before APC could upturn the result.
Hence without Buhari on the ballot, it will be difficult for APC to retain Kano and some other states in the north.
The votes of the rural northerners will be shared between Kwankwanso and Tinubu. The rural northerners with minds of their own will vote Kwankwanso since he has a similar ideology with Buhari. Those influence by their leaders will likely vote Tinubu while most elite will vote Atiku and a few for Obi.
With this, Tinubu chances will be threatened because he needs to dominate the north like buhari to win.

Noo.tinubu doesnt need to dominate the north since atiku has lost out in ss/se.he needs a narrow win in the north and a win in the sw to win