garfield1:


The votes will he divided between the three but tinubu will slightly have more votes

Because they love him more than their people right? Or they regard him more? Even with rigging, 25% would be hard for APC. And APC need at least 40% from the north to win.

tctrills:

You are wrong. The northerners do not prefer Tinubu to Atiku. Why would they. Are you sure you are from the north?
Do you know what 40 percent is? You actually think 2 in every 5 northerners would vote for a southerner? So if Tinubu scores 40%, how many votes would Kwankwaso score?

You’re clearly delusional or pretending to be.

Tinubu getting over 40% in the North isn’t even a question to be pondered if you knew anything about northern politics. You think he opted for M/M ticket out of fancy? You think the political heavyweights behind him are for jokes? Ganduje? Zulum? El-Rufai? Bagudu? Yakassai et al? Lol. The fact that you even think Kwankwaso is a threat (and didn’t factor the high probability that he would eventually step down for Tinubu) exposes the limits of your political sagacity.

You people had better learn to manage your expectations otherwise I can only imagine the anarchy you guys might cause in your region in the face of Obi’s defeat, going by your reaction to the kicking out of Jonathan.

garfield1:


You lie.majority of the pdp bigwigs in the north sabotaged gej.firstly,sokoto,kano,Adamawa,kwara governors decamped to apc.secondly,people like lamido in jigawa,muazu in niger stayed back to sabotage gej.people like shema,idris in kogi,yuguda in bauchi remained neutral.the northern elders were against gej.the north believed that it was their turn.but in 2023,the north knows it is the turn of the south.majority of the northern governors are supporting piwershift.eve most of the northern elders are not with atiku.have you seen any northern governor defecting to pdp? Only tambuwal,saraki,fintiri and bala are with atiku and they are not influential.tambuwal is up against wamakko in sokoto,a lot of his aides have defected.bala is up against a popular saduq abubakar so he has no time for atiku.same for fintiri.saraki is finished in kwara.atiku does not have that human resources to make it...

The same support given to buhari is not given to atiku.the north have been voting buhari,they are used to him.they are not used to atiku.he is too liberal and western.in 2015 most of the core north were apc territories.pdp doesnt have any territory there.kwankwaso and peter obi are there to share votes unlike 2915 where it was just buhari vs gej.no bloc votes for atiku.

Which North knows it's the turn of the South? Every candidate is running his campaign hoping to find favour before the electorates. APC's performance of 2015-2022 is what will determine her fate. We owe nobody any electoral reward. PDP capsized to vote Buhari. Same may happen in 2023

slivertongue:



Which North knows it's the turn of the South? Every candidate is running his campaign hoping to find favour before the electorates. APC's performance of 2015-2022 is what will determine her fate. We owe nobody any electoral reward. PDP capsized to vote Buhari. Same may happen in 2023

For apc to capsize,there must be massive defections including govs and inter party alliances. That's not gonna happen son

tctrills:
Because they love him more than their people right? Or they regard him more? Even with rigging, 25% would be hard for APC. And APC need at least 40% from the north to win.

They will get over 40%.the party structure is bigger than pdp and nnpp combined.

QuotaSystem:


You’re clearly delusional or pretending to be.

Tinubu getting over 40% in the North isn’t even a question to be pondered if you knew anything about northern politics. You think he opted for M/M ticket out of fancy? You think the political heavyweights behind him are for jokes? Ganduje? Zulum? El-Rufai, Yakassai et al? Lol. The fact that you even think Kwankwaso is a threat (and didn’t factor the high probability that he would eventually step down for Tinubu) exposes the limits of your political sagacity.

You people had better learn to manage your expectations otherwise I can only imagine the anarchy you guys might cause in your region in the face of Obi’s defeat, going by your reaction to the kicking out of Jonathan.

Whenever someone begins his post by attacking others, I don't take the person seriously. I only read your first sentence. Rewrite it in a more polite way and I promise to read and reply to you.

garfield1:


They will get over 40%.the party structure is bigger than pdp and nnpp combined.

PDP structure was bigger from 2003 to 2015 yet Buhari kept clearing the north. Party structure does not work. Party structure did not save APC in Osun.

tctrills:

Whenever someone begins his post by attacking others, I don't take the person seriously. I only read your first sentence. Rewrite it in a more polite way and I promise to read and reply to you.

There is nothing I expected you to say in the first place.

You were only being informed.

tctrills:

PDP structure was bigger from 2003 to 2015 yet Buhari kept clearing the north. Party structure does not work. Party structure did not save APC in Osun.

It does.it is actually the reason why pdp was winning from 2003-2011.buhari cleared core north not the whole north becsuse cpc and anpp was very strong.it took an alliance of parties for buhari to win in 2015.obj got 40% of the north in 2003,yaradua won him in the north....dont forget pdp has never won in zamfara,yobe,borno.presently,PDP is weak in katsina,kebbi....
Osun has always been a difficult place where incumbents lose.in 1983,bola ige lost.in 2003,akande lost and 2007 oyinlola lost.you saw how difficult it was in 2018,oyetola lost at the first ballot.osun like most part of the west is a difficult place.the biggest factors are popularity and performance before structure but you can see the narrow margin of victories to show you how strong apc is there. See how pdp was humiliated in ekiti...atiku cannot win this sir

M4A1carbine:
He cant get even 15%...OBI will ganner more votes than Tinubu in the North.

In the SW he is not even sure of 100%...even OSUN State is a pointer, but zombies dont learn...

Tinubu cant see more than 50% in SW.Half of south west is already Obidient

QuotaSystem:


There is nothing I expected you to say in the first place.

You were only being informed.

Do you think you are the only APC person on this thread? The others who choose to be respectful, do they have 2 heads? We have been having dialogues and disagreements but we all choose to be respectful because we have some home training. We would have answered your concern but some of us were not brought up on the streets. We would not lose our respect fighting for politicians. I hope you understand. Warm regards.

tctrills:

Do you think you are the only APC person on this thread? The others who choose to be respectful, do they have 2 heads? We have been having dialogues and disagreements but we all choose to be respectful because we have some home training. We would have answered your concern but some of us were not brought up on the streets. We would not lose our respect fighting for politicians. I hope you understand. Warm regards.

1. I have no concern beyond clearing the delusion upon which you built this thread on a public forum.

2. Your home-training or lack of it matters little in this discourse.

3. The fact the you uttered the statement below underlines your political delusion and is sufficient proof that you have nothing to tell me. Cheers.

tctrills:

Party structure does not work.

garfield1:


It does.it is actually the reason why pdp was winning from 2003-2011.buhari cleared core north not the whole north becsuse cpc and anpp was very strong.it took an alliance of parties for buhari to win in 2015.obj got 40% of the north in 2003,yaradua won him in the north....dont forget pdp has never won in zamfara,yobe,borno.presently,PDP is weak in katsina,kebbi....
Osun has always been a difficult place where incumbents lose.in 1983,bola ige lost.in 2003,akande lost and 2007 oyinlola lost.you saw how difficult it was in 2018,oyetola lost at the first ballot.osun like most part of the west is a difficult place.the biggest factors are popularity and performance before structure but you can see the narrow margin of victories to show you how strong apc is there. See how pdp was humiliated in ekiti...atiku cannot win this sir

Obj never won in the core north. Even at it's strongest PDP never won the core north.
PDP was really strong. The won governorship in many of these states but the core north never voted for a southerner. PDP's best result was with Yaradua a fellow northern.

QuotaSystem:


1. I have no concern beyond clearing the delusion upon which you built this thread on a public forum.

2. Your home-training or lack of it matters little in this discourse.

3. The fact the you uttered the statement below underlines your political delusion and is sufficient proof that you have nothing to tell me. Cheers.

Oga, there are enough insultive threads. You would feel at home in many of them. I am not sure this is the best place for you.
You can apologize and you would be accepted to our decent society.

tctrills:

Obj never won in the core north. Even at it's strongest PDP never won the core north.
PDP was really strong. The won governorship in many of these states but the core north never voted for a southerner. PDP's best result was with Yaradua a fellow northern.

The core north voted for obasanjo in 1999 even though anpp which controls core north then aligned with falae.obj got 40% in core north in 2003 same as gej in 2011.PDP is very weak in the core north now so how can they win? Apc is very strong in ss but cannot win.anpp won most parts of the core north in 1999 guber polls but many defected to pdp just like its happening in ss
The 2023 polls will be like 1979 or 1993

tctrills:

Oga, there are enough insultive threads. You would feel at home in many of them. I am not sure this is the best place for you.
You can apologize and you would be accepted to our decent society.

Stating that you’re being delusional with your permutations isn’t an insult but a statement of fact. So far, others have tried to spoon-feed basic political logic but you remain obstinate.

If I told you you were probably high on tyre fumes while typing the statement below, then it would be an insult.

tctrills:

Party structure does not work.

Understand the difference. Regards.

QuotaSystem:


Stating that you’re being delusional with your permutations isn’t an insult but a statement of fact. So far, others have tried to spoon-feed basic political logic but you remain obstinate.

If I told you you were probably high on tyre fumes while typing the statement below, then it would be an insult.



Understand the difference. Regards.

Do the rightful sir

ItsTutsi:
Don't compare 2015 and now, they are totally different.. 2015 zoning of presidency to north sentiment was very high! Many, if not all PDP govs worked for Buhari! You can't compare Buhari on a ballot paper to Atiku or PO

So 2015, voting was based on ethnic sentiments and you think this election, for reasons best known to you, northerners will leave Atiku or Kwankwaso and vote Tinubu?? lol. I get you like Tinubu and it's cool .

I live and do business in the north, I mean core north, my business is agro related so I interact with rural people a lot, I have never heard any of them mention Tinubu, it's either kwankwaso or Atiku so I don't know exactly where all these core northerners that will vote Tinubu are.

garfield1:


The core north voted for obasanjo in 1999 even though anpp which controls core north then aligned with falae.obj got 40% in core north in 2003 same as gej in 2011.PDP is very weak in the core north now so how can they win? Apc is very strong in ss but cannot win.anpp won most parts of the core north in 1999 guber polls but many defected to pdp just like its happening in ss
The 2023 polls will be like 1979 or 1993

No northern option in 1999. In 2003 OBJ did not get 20 percent from the core north. He got most of his votes from the middle belt and very little from the core north. Buhari won 11 of the core northern states.
The only middle belt state Tinubu stands a chance is Kwara

tctrills:

No northern option in 1999. In 2003 OBJ did not get 20 percent from the core north. He got most of his votes from the middle belt and very little from the core north. Buhari won 11 of the core northern states.
The only middle belt state Tinubu stands a chance is Kwara

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html&ved=2ahUKEwjjyIXwiOL5AhUfYPEDHSR2DTQQFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Cm5sYiHGT0j9wghBS1yGz


Oga check that link.obj got 40% in core north.defeated buhari in Kaduna and even in niger...tinubu will win kwara,niger,kogi.atiku can only win plateau and nasarawa,kebbi,sokoto,Kaduna,Adamawa,taraba,gombe.nothing else.
Why buhari has been winning core north is because he was very popular and loved plus his party was very strong in the core north.is atiku loved like buhari? How strong is pdp in the core north?

garfield1:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html&ved=2ahUKEwjjyIXwiOL5AhUfYPEDHSR2DTQQFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Cm5sYiHGT0j9wghBS1yGz


Oga check that link.obj got 40% in core north.defeated buhari in Kaduna and even in niger...tinubu will win kwara,niger,kogi.atiku can only win plateau and nasarawa,kebbi,sokoto,Kaduna,Adamawa,taraba,gombe.nothing else.
Why buhari has been winning core north is because he was very popular and loved plus his party was very strong in the core north.is atiku loved like buhari? How strong is pdp in the core north?

Obj never won in the core north. We know the states he won.
Buhari won 11 core north state while OBJ won all the middle belt states.

Aufbauh:



The problem with someone of you guys is that you'all use your emotion to make analysis.

The fact & record remains that:
1) Some people mostly the unedited rural voters who are in the majority will still vote along party line.

2) Every sitting Governor's party has
always come second at least in every general election.

3) Every sitting Governor has always manage to secure at least 40-45% vote for his party especially up north.

4) Presidential elections are won by mostly uneducated rural voters and not the noisy educated populace.

5) Election results are determined by what happened on the election day & not the perennial optics.

6) Nigeria politicians will always find their way around any new created law or act.

Initially,d uneducated at rural areas made d chunk of voters n thats becos d educated nigerians always bliev their votes dont count n usually shy away frm going tru stress of acquiring PVC.That isnt d issue in this election as d new stats frm INEC shows nigerians under d age of 34 form 84% of latest PVC registration i.e Obidient.

garfield1:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html&ved=2ahUKEwjjyIXwiOL5AhUfYPEDHSR2DTQQFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Cm5sYiHGT0j9wghBS1yGz


Oga check that link.obj got 40% in core north.defeated buhari in Kaduna and even in niger...tinubu will win kwara,niger,kogi.atiku can only win plateau and nasarawa,kebbi,sokoto,Kaduna,Adamawa,taraba,gombe.nothing else.
Why buhari has been winning core north is because he was very popular and loved plus his party was very strong in the core north.is atiku loved like buhari? How strong is pdp in the core north?

These are the states OBJ easily won. Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara and Taraba. None of these states have an Hausa or Fulani majority. Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Taraba remain PDP strongholds.
Southerners do not win in the core north.

tctrills:

These are the states OBJ easily won. Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara and Taraba. None of these states have an Hausa or Fulani majority. Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Taraba remain PDP strongholds.
Southerners do not win in the core north.

Abiola won in bauchi,kano,Kaduna.gej and obj won Kaduna...if you look at all the states in core north buhari won,anpp was very strong or stronger than pdp there.borno and yobe do not have a Hausa fulani majority yet buhari won.same for bauchi and niger.all these northern states obj won are were pdp were far stringer then buhari party.buhari won middle belt in 2015 and 2019 because his party became stronger than pdp

tctrills:

Obj never won in the core north. We know the states he won.
Buhari won 11 core north state while OBJ won all the middle belt states.

Oga,obj won core north in 1999
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-1999.html&ved=2ahUKEwj7pMiXmOL5AhWB_KQKHdcXDBsQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2-XoClXNCl7E0Fij8A6-mB


So you see,I've given you reasons why atiku will lose

garfield1:


For apc to capsize,there must be massive defections including govs and inter party alliances. That's not gonna happen son

Not everyone will decamp. Those who stay within and work against the party are more deadly. Already there are alignment and realignment all aimed at solving the ongoing anarchy using our PVC. Atiku may get sympathy from the North but no Northerner will vote any person or party responsible for the ongoing disaster without giving it a deep thought. APC destroyed and divided the North and frankly speaking we are already in post Buhari, we have seen his best and his best is not for the nation. The won't vote any disaster recommended by him.
The illiterate rural folks whom APC are counting on are wiser. Most regret trusting APC blindly. But don't take my words to the bank. Wait for Feb 2023... The defeat will be better than Obaseki's...

garfield1:


Oga,obj won core north in 1999
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-1999.html&ved=2ahUKEwj7pMiXmOL5AhWB_KQKHdcXDBsQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2-XoClXNCl7E0Fij8A6-mB


So you see,I've given you reasons why atiku will lose

What are you talking about? was there a northern candidate? Oga go and check in 1999, only two candidates. Both were Yoruba's

garfield1:


Abiola won in bauchi,kano,Kaduna.gej and obj won Kaduna...if you look at all the states in core north buhari won,anpp was very strong or stronger than pdp there.borno and yobe do not have a Hausa fulani majority yet buhari won.same for bauchi and niger.all these northern states obj won are were pdp were far stringer then buhari party.buhari won middle belt in 2015 and 2019 because his party became stronger than pdp

None of those mentioned above exposed us to 24/7 anarchy. We will judge APC with Buhari's performance. Buhari's claims to perform wonders had ended so using his victory as a yardstick for 2023 shows you are still living in 2014

tctrills:

These are the states OBJ easily won. Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara and Taraba. None of these states have an Hausa or Fulani majority. Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Taraba remain PDP strongholds.
Southerners do not win in the core north.

Gombe, Bauchi Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa, FCT are more home to PDP than APC. Benue, Bauchi, Sokoto, Adamawa fell to PDP in 2019. I fear 8may more fall into the PDP. Thus collapsing the APC.

tctrills:

What are you talking about? was there a northern candidate? Oga go and check in 1999, only two candidates. Both were Yoruba's

Yes but the core north party anpp adopted falae

slivertongue:



None of those mentioned above exposed us to 24/7 anarchy. We will judge APC with Buhari's performance. Buhari's claims to perform wonders had ended so using his victory as a yardstick for 2023 shows you are still living in 2014

You said so before 2019 polls before buhari thrashed atiku

slivertongue:



Not everyone will decamp. Those who stay within and work against the party are more deadly. Already there are alignment and realignment all aimed at solving the ongoing anarchy using our PVC. Atiku may get sympathy from the North but no Northerner will vote any person or party responsible for the ongoing disaster without giving it a deep thought. APC destroyed and divided the North and frankly speaking we are already in post Buhari, we have seen his best and his best is not for the nation. The won't vote any disaster recommended by him.
The illiterate rural folks whom APC are counting on are wiser. Most regret trusting APC blindly. But don't take my words to the bank. Wait for Feb 2023... The defeat will be better than Obaseki's...

Those that voted obaseki are already regretting.pdp members are even more willing to sabotage atiku than in apc.they have started sabotaging the party.you saw what happened in 2019.,okowa is already isolated,pdp has been totally divided into two camps of pro wike and pro atiku.a large numbers of southerners in PDP want power shift.tinubu has started penetrating pdp.pdp have lost se and are about to lose ss.pdp cannot win sir