garfield1:


Yes but the core north party anpp adopted falae

I never spoke about party. The point is, since 2003, the core north has always voted for a northerner.

tctrills:
I never spoke about party. The point is, since 2003, the core north has always voted for a northerner.

Yes,a very special northerner like buhari.you cannot compare him to buhari.it doesbt mean that they will always vote a northerner automatically

garfield1:


Yes,a very special northerner like buhari.you cannot compare him to buhari.it doesbt mean that they will always vote a northerner automatically

Not really, and nothing special about him. Take a look at 2007 when a little-known Kastina Governor reduced Buhari's northern votes by half.
The Only constant factor is that the core north only votes for the core north. That comes first before the Party.
In fact, the core north Never votes for the party. It's always the candidate, that is why Borno, Kano, and Kastina have all had PDP governors. In fact, right now Sokoto has a PDP governor. So the idea that the north votes for party and not the candidate is wrong.

garfield1:


The core north voted for obasanjo in 1999 even though anpp which controls core north then aligned with falae.obj got 40% in core north in 2003 same as gej in 2011.PDP is very weak in the core north now so how can they win? Apc is very strong in ss but cannot win.anpp won most parts of the core north in 1999 guber polls but many defected to pdp just like its happening in ss
The 2023 polls will be like 1979 or 1993

All your predictions consigning 2023 are just useless assumptions.Next year election is between muslims and christains whether you like it or not.You just have one meaningless vote to cast.A muslim must hand power to a christain by fire by force.Nigeria is not iraq nor saudi arabia

tctrills:
Not really, and nothing special about him. Take a look at 2007 when a little-known Kastina Governor reduced Buhari's northern votes by half.
The Only constant factor is that the core north only votes for the core north. That comes first before the Party.
In fact, the core north Never votes for the party. It's always the candidate, that is why Borno, Kano, and Kastina have all had PDP governors. In fact, right now Sokoto has a PDP governor. So the idea that the north votes for party and not the candidate is wrong.

Borno has never had a pdp governor.the side of core north atiku is from is not well regarded.he is from a state where half of the people are Christians and he only claims fulani.his real tribe is kilba.if small yaradua could reduce buhari votes,why didnt atiku a giant do same in 2019? Do you know that yaradua won Adamawa in 2007? Atiku is overrated man.the north will be torn between a religious ticket,a fanatic in kwankwaso and a liberal northerner.votes will be divided but tinubu has the advantage. Tinubu has more network and foot soldiers up north than atiku

garfield1:


Borno has never had a pdp governor.the side of core north atiku is from is not well regarded.he is from a state where half of the people are Christians and he only claims fulani.his real tribe is kilba.if small yaradua could reduce buhari votes,why didnt atiku a giant do same in 2019? Do you know that yaradua won Adamawa in 2007? Atiku is overrated man.the north will be torn between a religious ticket,a fanatic in kwankwaso and a liberal northerner.votes will be divided but tinubu has the advantage. Tinubu has more network and foot soldiers up north than atiku

I am not sure you have counted Tinubu's foot soldiers and what does this have to do with foot soldiers? No one expected any strong performance from Atiku in 2007. But even if Atiku is weak and sick, the Core north would always vote for their own. They have been the most consistent voting block since 2003.

SU50:


I wish that was true, but it's not. APC has nothing to campaign with in the north, insecurity, bad economy, corruption everything we hated PDP for, APC has become.

.....people keep pretending like they don't know apc really messed up...upon all the support they got...

tctrills:
I am not sure you have counted Tinubu's foot soldiers and what does this have to do with foot soldiers? No one expected any strong performance from Atiku in 2007. But even if Atiku is weak and sick, the Core north would always vote for their own. They have been the most consistent voting block since 2003.

Pdp does not have men in several northern states to carry the gospel.the few they have care about their self to even send atiku.atiku cannot be every where.he needs loyalists yo campaign vigorously at the rural areas which he doesnt.he depends heavily on party structure and elites who don't have grassroot appeal.

garfield1:


Pdp does not have men in several northern states to carry the gospel.the few they have care about their self to even send atiku.atiku cannot be every where.he needs loyalists yo campaign vigorously at the rural areas which he doesnt.he depends heavily on party structure and elites who don't have grassroot appeal.

While both of us have not done a census to know how many men PDP has, with or without men, the core north would always vote for a northerner.

tctrills:

While both of us have not done a census to know how many men PDP has, with or without men, the core north would always vote for a northerner.

We don't know about that.with kwankwaso in the mix and obi getting stronger,votes will be divided.you posted an online video poll from Kaduna and Adamawa and you saw that voters were divided at the urban areas.at the rural areas,they listen to their leaders who are mainly in apc

slivertongue:



Not everyone will decamp. Those who stay within and work against the party are more deadly. Already there are alignment and realignment all aimed at solving the ongoing anarchy using our PVC. Atiku may get sympathy from the North but no Northerner will vote any person or party responsible for the ongoing disaster without giving it a deep thought. APC destroyed and divided the North and frankly speaking we are already in post Buhari, we have seen his best and his best is not for the nation. The won't vote any disaster recommended by him.
The illiterate rural folks whom APC are counting on are wiser. Most regret trusting APC blindly. But don't take my words to the bank. Wait for Feb 2023... The defeat will be better than Obaseki's...

Buhari has been demystified.

garfield1:


We don't know about that.with kwankwaso in the mix and obi getting stronger,votes will be divided.you posted an online video poll from Kaduna and Adamawa and you saw that voters were divided at the urban areas.at the rural areas,they listen to their leaders who are mainly in apc

You are still fixated on spreading this fallacy.

garfield1:


We don't know about that.with kwankwaso in the mix and obi getting stronger,votes will be divided.you posted an online video poll from Kaduna and Adamawa and you saw that voters were divided at the urban areas.at the rural areas,they listen to their leaders who are mainly in apc

The point here shows that many of the traditional APC voters are moving away.
The APC has always depended on the Northerner votes because the south has not been fruitful for them. Now the would be losing much of their juicy core northern vote to Atiku and a little to Kwankwaso.

garfield1:


You said so before 2019 polls before buhari thrashed atiku

Sadly Buhari won't be on the ballot in 2023. The electorates will judge his party by his performance which of course is woeful.

Before now I told you where the PDP ticket wud go and who will get it but you kept sustaining your faulty assumptions with petty analysis. Well continue with your political rigmarole, our PVC will decide who wins

garfield1:


Those that voted obaseki are already regretting.pdp members are even more willing to sabotage atiku than in apc.they have started sabotaging the party.you saw what happened in 2019.,okowa is already isolated,pdp has been totally divided into two camps of pro wike and pro atiku.a large numbers of southerners in PDP want power shift.tinubu has started penetrating pdp.pdp have lost se and are about to lose ss.pdp cannot win sir

You are still living in denial. APC lost Edo and Osun yet you are dreaming of sabotage. Tinubu &Obi needs the whole of the South to stand a chance of winning. That both contenders come from major groups makes the aspiration of having a southern president a tall dream. I told you earlier that the election will be won and lost in the South. Southern disunity will be the albatross of southern candidates. But again your party is running after a man and region that was said to be insignificant.

tctrills:

The point here shows that many of the traditional APC voters are moving away.
The APC has always depended on the Northerner votes because the south has not been fruitful for them. Now the would be losing much of their juicy core northern vote to Atiku and a little to Kwankwaso.

Am not sure apc are losing any northern votes except in middle belt.even if they lose voters,it won't be enough for atiku

SU50:


You are still fixated on spreading this fallacy.

There is no fallacy sir.as it stands,apc is the strongest party.labour is eating up pdp votes,deal with that

garfield1:


Am not sure apc are losing any northern votes except in middle belt.even if they lose voters,it won't be enough for atiku

The are losing their major voting block, the core north to Atiku and Kwankwaso. They never dominated the middle belt.

tctrills:

The are losing their major voting block, the core north to Atiku and Kwankwaso. They never dominated the middle belt.

No indications that they have lost any vote.apc so far have won almost all elections in core north since 2019 polls.no major defections

Aufbauh:


You must be one of the followers of the man with fake statistics Pitopi, who's ignorantly confident to tell us to go & verify.

So in 2015 Kwankwaso as the governor of kano state is a PDP member? Haba!
Go & check the presidential election result of Gombe state 2015 and find out it percentage of total vote cast.

I did my checking already so my record & fact is clear. However the zoning issue was a strong sentiment in the north 2015 which make some of the PDP governors there work against their party.

If through out the history of Nigeria presidential you could only isolate 2015 election then my fact is stronger than ur rebuttal.

I believed you could not fault or disproved that no sitting Governor's party come third in any presidential election in their respective state.

In 2011, mention one state in the north that had CPC's governor

garfield1:


No indications that they have lost any vote.apc so far have won almost all elections in core north since 2019 polls.no major defections

True, northerner vs northerner. But now its different.

[quote author=garfield1 post=116059872]

There is no fallacy sir.as it stands,apc is the strongest party. labour is eating up pdp votes,deal with that[/quote]

Down south, yes. Up north, defn. No.

[quote author=SU50 post=116061611][/quote]



In the north central

tctrills:

True, northerner vs northerner. But now its different.

Let atiku win his polling unit and unite his party first

garfield1:


Let atiku win his polling unit and unite his party first

Lol, that wouldn't be a problem this time

tctrills:
Lol, that wouldn't be a problem this time

Half of the northern pdp are not even with him.fintiri is fighting for his life

garfield1:


He is too popular in kano compared to tinubu and atiku.it will be kwankwaso 1 mil,tinubu 600,@tiku 400

Garfield
Atiku will get only 400k votes in Kano.
Kwankwaso will get double of Atiku votes in Kano.
Kano will poll total of 2million votes
This dude is funny

Tourvew:
Tinubu is a PLACEHOLDER for Gov Shettima, the earlier you people realize this, the better.

Most of the people pushing escoBAT do not know there's an agenda to just install him by fire by force, and when he is tired and sick before 2 years, Shettima will be sworn-in as President and more Kabiru Sokoto will be hiding in his house.

Even Yaradua was way stronger than him before he became president. A sick country does not need a sick president

Every Attempt To Convert Aso Rock To Retirement Home For The Elderly & Sick , We Cancel & Destroy in Jesus Name.

.

But you guys just said that Tinubu won't win?

garfield1:


Half of the northern pdp are not even with him.fintiri is fighting for his life

No really

tctrills:
No really

Yes, ortom and suswan in benue are pro wike,ombugady in nasarawa is with wike,dankwambo in gombe for wike,Ibrahim idris in kogi,Jonah jang in plateau,yakubu lado and Shena in katsina, abacha in kano,kantigi in niger,mahdi gusau in zamfara.atiku is facing a civil war in pdp

garfield1:


Yes, ortom and suswan in benue are pro wike,ombugady in nasarawa is with wike,dankwambo in gombe for wike,Ibrahim idris in kogi,Jonah jang in plateau,yakubu lado and Shena in katsina, abacha in kano,kantigi in niger,mahdi gusau in zamfara.atiku is facing a civil war in pdp

Yes we have Benue, Nasarawa and Kogi. These are not the core north. No matter how bad the civil war, the core north would vote for a northerner. Also, don't forget that APC is also having its own crisis.

tctrills:

Yes we have Benue, Nasarawa and Kogi. These are not the core north. No matter how bad the civil war, the core north would vote for a northerner. Also, don't forget that APC is also having its own crisis.

The crisis is not as much as pdp.atiku cannot win presidency with only the core north.he needs 3 zones.he is not sure of any,tinubu and obi are already sure of one