If wishes were horses, they say, beggars would ride.

Everyone is a potential winner before any election until the authentic winner is declared after the polls.


We keep watching!

Ttalk:


PDP has structure in SS that would make it win the region but APC structure in the North will not give Tinubu victory there.

Just say that's your wish and not based on what's on ground. The permutation favours Tinubu

But like seriously I still can't phantom what you people mean by POLITICAL STRUCTURE SYSTEM?. Does LP has a structure before they pull out that massive crowd last weekend.. see let's be realistic here Nigerians has fully waken up from their slumber, majority of Nigerian will not vote a party just because the party is the rulling party of his/her state but they will vote base on compency, integrity, and accountability of a candidate. Nigerians are tired of these suffering... #ISTAND4OBI/DATTI

FatherOfJesus:
the difference is the pattern of voting. Northeast and northwest will always vote a northerner irrespective of ruling party, election figures always proves so, they have herd mentality. Tinubu cannot beat Atiku there Go verify

Southsouth always vote PDP, go verify

Northeast and Northwest voted massively for Obasanjo in 2003 and Jonathan in 2011. Go and verify. Don't even tell me the reason

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

How old are you? If you're not up to 40, then there is no need arguing with your puerile analysis. However, if you're over 40, then there is something wrong with your education. Abiola beat Tofa in Kano State. Also, Obj had substantial votes from some Northern States like Jigawa, Adamawa and others against Buhari. The fact remains that Atiku is not so popular in the core North to assure his victory in those areas.

simongonner:
lolz.. when election ends.. maybe that's when the south west and south east will settle their issues.. I can bet you the Northerners will support their own. Forget that Muslim Muslim ticket . They want power to remain in the north just like someone of you wants power to come to the East or South West.. bookmark this

A lot of northerners dislike atiku.some support kwankwaso.they are not united Like 2015

Times have changed, election is about numbers now, no more magu-magu...and No, the real Northerners can't vote a southern president after all the killings and ill treatments they've been getting from them. Unlike before when there was peaceful coexistence between every tribe

tiger28:
I dont understand how many ppl like the OP think that Northerners cannot vote for a Southern President..........

If that is the case, then can someone explain

HOW OBJ won TWO terms?

HOW Jonathan won as well?

Strong Party structure and a viable Candidate that is NOT Just a regional Candidate are all it takes pls!

The Northern APC governors senator rep n delegates who each n every one of them is more important than your Igbo father disagree totally when they voted power should go to the south. Why should we now take the word of a nobody n a fool like you seriously.

simongonner:
lolz.. when election ends.. maybe that's when the south west and south east will settle their issues.. I can bet you the Northerners will support their own. Forget that Muslim Muslim ticket . They want power to remain in the north just like someone of you wants power to come to the East or South West.. bookmark this

garfield1:


If atiku wins the north,it will be by a razor thin margin.historically,the north votes for fanatics.bashir tofa lost to abiola up north,shagari struggled to win the north.1999 the north adopted falae yet obj won the north.tinubu will win the north or lose narrowly

Stop lying.OBJ was the candidate of the North in 1999

FatherOfJesus:
the difference is the pattern of voting. Northeast and northwest will always vote a northerner irrespective of ruling party, election figures always proves so, they have herd mentality. Tinubu cannot beat Atiku there Go verify

Southsouth always vote PDP, go verify

ogogoro induced permutation, how many times have pdp won presidential elections in NE and NW region?

You underestimate Obi's pull in the SW & NC.
You also underestimate the anti Muslim Muslim ticket in the North and SW.

You assume that northern Christians won't vote as a bloc.
Finally, you underestimate Obi and Datti's pull in Kaduna, Kano; as well as Kwankwaso's pull in Kano and Sokoto.

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

kcnwaigbo:

Stop lying.OBJ was the candidate of the North in 1999

No.anpp which dominated the north adopted falae

Atiku would have won in a landslide if not for Obi dat came in as a third force to split his block votes, this splitting wil like favour bat

Sonyboom765:
Nigeria did start from 1999 n no southern Muslim ever contested before

This 1993. I said 1999!
Obi just need to get 49% from the north. That's all. The northerns are loyal and loyal to their own and own only.

SIRTee15:


Neither Obasanjo nor Jonathan won the core northern states when they contested against a northerner- Buhari.
You want to know how they won? They swept the whole southern region and won majority votes in the middle belt. They never won northeast or northwest.

This proves u don't actually need the core north to win election as a southern presidential candidate. What u need is a tight grip on the south and perform very well in the north central, a region that doesn't have the herd mentality of the core northern states.

For the first time we have southern candidates esp Tinubu who has no hope of sweeping the southern region, will perform poorly in middlebelt but hopes northeast and northwest votes will make him president.
Tinubu will indeed have conjured the greatest abracadabra ever known if he can win next year election.

Obi would have had a better chance if he's running under a main party, but the labour party structure is quite weak nationwide. He will likely perform poorly in the southwest, struggle in middlebelt and crash in the core north.
This election is for Atiku to win if he knows what he's doing.

Pls refer to the 1993 vote demographics btw abiola and tofa.

Sonyboom765:
The Northern APC governors senator rep n delegates who each n every one of them is more important than your Igbo father disagree totally when they voted power should go to the south. Why should we no take the word of a nobody n a fool like you seriously.

Shebi the northern APC Governors will force the almajiris to vote for the APC.

Anyway while I think Atiku will win the NE and NW,I still don't see him getting more votes than Obi Who is expected to sweep the SS, SE and NC regions

And when Atiku wins, trust them to come out with another stroy of foul play.

Ruggedniggaone:
This is the pure truth, everything is
Pointing towards Atiku victory but obi fans will insult the hell out of you for saying the obvious 2023 no far again we shall see

garfield1:


A lot of northerners dislike atiku.some support kwankwaso.they are not united Like 2015

everything boils down to the Buhari effect, now they love him. My colleagues at work that always abuse Atiku because they see him as a thief are now supporting him cause Buhari is not there again . I grew up in the north, those guys vote base of ethnicity/religion.. now the trend in the north is Namu ne Namu ne( our own is our own). I have over 5 videos on my phone where some imams in the north are preaching against voting TINUBU

Svoboda:


Pls refer to the 1993 vote demographics btw abiola and tofa.

Abiola won states in the SS and SE.Tinubu will not even win a single local governments in both regions today

Patosky4U:
Those doubting the OP should understudy the election result of 2011, you will see that the United south have Jonathan the power. Now the south is divided, it will only take God's grace for a southern to win 2023

Exactly.....Tinubu is dividing the south and the north is fully behind Atiku

Ttalk:


PDP has structure in SS that would make it win the region but APC structure in the North will not give Tinubu victory there.

Just say that's your wish and not based on what's on ground. The permutation favours Tinubu

Wait a minutes.. All these people supporting PDP and APC are they really Nigerians?. I believe a true and loyal Nigerian will never in his/her widest dream vote for these two parties...

Economy: 0% (People are dying of hunger day by day)

Education: 0% (Universities has been on strike for up to a year still yet Gbajabiamila went abroad to bag a degree and also posting it on his Twitter handle neglecting his own country)

Security: 0% The rate at which people are been attack everyday in Nigeria by bandit, Boko Haram, Unknown Gunmen is really alarming

I can still go on and on..
Our fate is in our hands please let's endeavor to get our PVC and vote for COMPETENCY, INTEGRITY, AND ACCOUNTABILITY.

13october:


Tinubu will win Niger and do well in Nasarawa. Kwara, Kogi is good ground while Benue will be share among them

Tinubu with a Muslim Muslim ticket stands no chance in Benue state

Nigeria is never more divided. People just play that up to back their claim. 2023 election will prove who is wrong or right

David160:


Nigeria today is a lot more divided..

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

If no obi atiku is 97% win this election
With obi tinubu get 60% as obi also get the same 60%

I share same thought with u here..

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

Your being realistic is not realistic.. I hope u know Obi is winning Lagos, Abuja, benue, Jos, and he is going to win all d state in d south east..

The northern vote Apc should be boasting of is going to be shared by Atiku, kwankwaso, tinubu, which u know Obi is going to get vote from d North, and most northern christians is going to vote for Obi because of d Apc Muslim-muslim ticket.. then talk of d south south, well let me not go there shaaa...

Sonyboom765:
The Northern APC governors senator rep n delegates who each n every one of them is more important than your Igbo father disagree totally when they voted power should go to the south. Why should we no take the word of a nobody n a fool like you seriously.

haha lolz... Am a northerner... shey you are not yet seeing the massive defection from APC to PDP in the north?.. your eyes go clear 2023

simongonner:
everything boils down to the Buhari effect, now they love him. My colleagues at work that always abuse Atiku because they see him as a thief are now supporting him cause Buhari is not there again . I grew up in the north, those guys vote base of ethnicity/religion.. now the trend in the north is Namu ne Namu ne( our own is our own). I have over 5 videos on my phone where some imams in the north are preaching against voting TINUBU

The north is divided between kwankwaso and atiku.they can't love anybody like buhari.tinubu will win,leave atiku

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

DOA.

The only problem with PDP is their incurable penchant for corruption and stealing of public fund, in and out power. As for APC, that to me is not a party at all. It's an entity with strange bed fellow with no specific direction and definable goal. Lp is new and can't be concluded upon, but it presents hope and departure from the old order. With it Nigeria are no longer between the devil and the deep red sea.

SlavaUkraini:
Good Analysis... But

You are forgetting one name..

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso

He is the Game changer for Atiku Abubakar in the North...

As Peter Obi may play Spoiler for Atiku Abubakar in the South,

RMK will surely play Spoiler for Tinubu in the North..

Woah what if the north is now split between Atiku and Tinubu and the entire south west and south east votes for Peter Obi. This could actually be advantageous for Peter Obi!

What? The northerners are very informed voters they only vote for their interest not at the detriment of their own progress as it is now most northerners are advocating for power to shit to the south for equity and fairness if not for wrong choices the APC have made by not fielding in a very likable candidates Atiku will never win in the North. Regardless do you really think Atiku can beat kwankwso if it were just the both of them?

Anyway lets see if Atiku wins 2023 election we would see who truly has a herd mentality