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Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation - Business (3) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Business / Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation (16372 Views)

Naira Under-valued In Official, Parallel Forex Markets – Bismarck Rewane / Naira Fair Value Should Settle Between ₦‎640-₦‎680/$ – Bismarch Rewane / Bismarck Rewane Claims Naira Overvalued By 200%, Begs CBN To Set Currency Free (2) (3) (4)

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Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by GreyLaw(m): 12:26pm On Oct 28, 2022
CheapHomes1:


Who prints Nigeria's currency?

I think I should say Nigeria doesn't print all her currencies.

1 Like

Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by GeneralDae: 12:27pm On Oct 28, 2022
I think the CBN is actually trying to make Nigeria a cashless society even the local markets. They just had to make some radical decisions for this.
Now more people would be forced to go cashless and market women/men may possibly adopt the E naira.
When the CBN can locate market men and women through the E naira, then they can easily disburse cash directly without any middle man when there are things like COVID-19.

2 Likes

Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by GreyLaw(m): 12:28pm On Oct 28, 2022
baralatie:

As in the actual cost of cbn printing the new notes and transporting into its vault.
Hmmm!
It is emefele that will use his mouth to publish such details

I saw this somewhere online:

Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by emmy4real94(m): 12:28pm On Oct 28, 2022
ever heard of deflation then?
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by GreyLaw(m): 12:30pm On Oct 28, 2022
GeneralDae:
I think the CBN is actually trying to make a Nigeria a cashless society that permeates even the local markets. They just had to make some radical decisions for this.
Now more people would be forced to go cashless and market women/men may possibly adopt the E naira.

Yeah, in the UK almost everything is done via a card. Cash is still used but you know card is easier. Just swipe or do contactless and the transaction is done in few seconds. That way your life and transactions are easily tracked. Hahaha...

In my school you canot even buy anything with cash.... everything card!

1 Like

Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by baralatie(m): 12:33pm On Oct 28, 2022
GeneralDae:
I think the CBN is actually trying to make Nigeria a cashless society even the local markets. They just had to make some radical decisions for this.
Now more people would be forced to go cashless and market women/men may possibly adopt the E naira.
When the CBN can locate market men and women through the E naira, then they can easily disburse cash directly without any middle man when there are things like COVID-19.
This is not a cashless policy nah!

This is cash for cash transaction
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by baralatie(m): 12:37pm On Oct 28, 2022
Guys remember this is end of October oo

grin

And emiefele said January 2023?

That is November
December
January


To mole #3 trillion



cheesy grin grin grin
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by GeneralDae: 12:44pm On Oct 28, 2022
baralatie:

This is not a cashless policy nah!

This is cash for cash transaction
I said the CBN is trying to make people go cashless as fast as they can. Read my post again and ask for clarification where you are lost

1 Like

Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by johnbd: 12:55pm On Oct 28, 2022
I talk am buhari is against thiefnibu. God forbid Bat thing.
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by babaijesha: 12:58pm On Oct 28, 2022
Dis CBN policy is directed at ...
those politicians.. elites...etc that has cash locked up...
in their vaults....for election...
Everyone go bring out d cash by fire by force...
More inflow and new account for the Banks...
Btn now and December ...
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by VULCAN(m): 1:35pm On Oct 28, 2022
Coming from the man that supports even the most mind numbing policies of APC, we should know that sense will be far from this post.

Bismark Rewane one of our most renowned economists says the impact of this policy reducing inflation will be negligible...

...But smartpolician knows better of course

SmartPolician:
If we have 3 trillion naira outside the reach of our commercial banks, Nigeria has a cause to worry. So, anyone critizing this redesign of naira may have an ulterior motive.

This could be the best policy that Emefiele will be remembered for because I am yet to think of any. undecided

PS: Naira should have an expiry date of 15 - 20 years. It will reduce high-level financial embezzlement and hoarding
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by teepain: 1:43pm On Oct 28, 2022
Emman08:
I have not read anywhere where anyone explains why this naira redesign is even necessary

Honestly, I am not convinced that Naira redesign is what the country needs at the moment. This is even more so, when one considers that this government is in its twilight. So, the question is why the haste to redesign before the change of baton in Government.

Let the incoming government decide on what to do after thinking everything through.

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Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Emman08: 2:02pm On Oct 28, 2022
teepain:


Honestly, I am not convinced that Naira redesign is what the country needs at the moment. This is even more so, when one considers that this government is in its twilight. So, the question is why the haste to redesign before the change of baton in Government.

Let the incoming government decide on what to do after thinking everything through.

You're right sir. It sounds hasty and not well thought out. The next administration should carryout such a task if it is even necessary
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by IseOluwa777(m): 2:04pm On Oct 28, 2022
The real implication here that is already playing out is that the folks hoarding cash know they can not bring it to the bank legitimately.What will they do? They will exchange it for dollars and hold dollars until they can cash it into the new currency. As we speak,dollar is galloping to 780 per dollar. Before all this is over, we may see N1000 per dollar. After that, it is anybody's guess what will happen, but I think it will come down ,but not as much as it went up. You can ride the market up and down for a 40% gain in total by January.
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Ijeoma660(f): 2:04pm On Oct 28, 2022
CBN will not produce enough of the new notes but rather encourage citizens to use their e-naira for bills and payment settlement.

I believe this is the grand design to enforce it's use which Nigerians has refused to embrace.

2 Likes

Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by InvertedHammer: 2:14pm On Oct 28, 2022
/

This is the best way to fight inflation so far. All those textbook approaches (eg increasing interest rates) will not work in Nigeria.

/
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by GeneralDae: 2:17pm On Oct 28, 2022
teepain:


Honestly, I am not convinced that Naira redesign is what the country needs at the moment. This is even more so, when one considers that this government is in its twilight. So, the question is why the haste to redesign before the change of baton in Government.

Let the incoming government decide on what to do after thinking everything through.
CBN wants Nigerians to adopt E naira or at least key into some form of cashless policy. So they may limit the new cash notes in order to get most people adopting the e naira or going cashless with some fintech app at least.
It's a bold move.

1 Like

Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by coputa(m): 2:18pm On Oct 28, 2022
SmartyPants:
I'm surprised such a renowned economist could present such views. It is a trite principle of economics that GDP and inflation share a directly proportional relationship.

Of course, a fall in GDP will lead to a fall in inflation.
On the contrary.;a fall in GDP will result to high inflation as the GDP is the monentary value of goods and services produced in a country.if this is low,i
it will lead to mass importation of goods with the scarce resources, thereby reducing the value of the currency.
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Nobody: 2:29pm On Oct 28, 2022
GeneralDae:
I think the CBN is actually trying to make Nigeria a cashless society even the local markets. They just had to make some radical decisions for this.
Now more people would be forced to go cashless and market women/men may possibly adopt the E naira.
When the CBN can locate market men and women through the E naira, then they can easily disburse cash directly without any middle man when there are things like COVID-19.

I wonder why nobody is talking about e - naira that Nigerians have failed to accept because of poor rating by few Nigerians that have tried it. The first reason CBN gave why analysing the need to introduce e - naira is the cost of printing notes and the cost of maintenance.

Many people are not even aware of anything like e - naira. I think apart from fall in GDP, the cashless economy drive will be accelerated the more. I just pity GTB, Zenith, Access and First Bank Staff, this is not a good December to work in Banks. I am sure most Banks CEO will suspend any form of leave this December and resignation may not be approved till February.
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by baralatie(m): 2:30pm On Oct 28, 2022
IseOluwa777:
The real implication here that is already playing out is that the folks hoarding cash know they can not bring it to the bank legitimately.What will they do? They will exchange it for dollars and hold dollars until they can cash it into the new currency. As we speak,dollar is galloping to 780 per dollar. Before all this is over, we may see N1000 per dollar. After that, it is anybody's guess what will happen, but I think it will come down ,but not as much as it went up. You can ride the market up and down for a 40% gain in total by January.
And guess what
As the dollar goes up
The possibility for inflation sets in
grin
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by IseOluwa777(m): 2:45pm On Oct 28, 2022
baralatie:

And guess what
As the dollar goes up
The possibility for inflation sets in
grin

Oh yes, intense inflation is implied here. Nigerians are in for rougher times!
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by SmartyPants(m): 2:48pm On Oct 28, 2022
coputa:
On the contrary.;a fall in GDP will result to high inflation as the GDP is the monentary value of goods and services produced in a country.if this is low,i
it will lead to mass importation of goods with the scarce resources, thereby reducing the value of the currency.

That is obviously wrong:

- If GDP is low, it means producers haven't made much money.

- When this happens it means less money flows into the home.

- When this happens it means consumption will automatically drop. Not because there is nothing to buy, but because there is no money to buy it with. The money is tied up somewhere.

That is the basic economic cycle.

Now in this particular case, we are even talking about short-run GDP shortfall. Are you telling me we are going to start importing onions and pepper simply because market women aren't selling much for a few weeks?

This is exactly what will happen:

Limited inflation of the most essential commodities like food, with wider deflation on everything else, averaging into deflation across the board.
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by maste: 3:30pm On Oct 28, 2022
Honestly I find this analysis rather too simplistic. You cannot view micro and macro economics in insolation. Let is look at the political economy. Nigeria's economy is largely import dependent because of the unimaginative policy makers and greedy politicians who have failed to diversify the economic base all these years. There will be a spike in the demand for foreign currency as a store of value pending the introduction of the new notes for two reasons. 1. Those that want to avoid scrutiny because of the limited timeline who will avoid the banks. 2. Importation will continue so the demand by the importers will still be there. The effect of this will be a sharp spike in the price of foreign currency. Considering the fact that the supply of FX is limited the Naira will crash further causing the price of goods which are largely imported to rise against the Naira.. The first step would have been to diversify our source of FX thus increasing the supply. And capping imports.
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Brian47(m): 4:52pm On Oct 28, 2022
bigdammyj:
Noted.


I like your sense of humor
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Brian47(m): 4:55pm On Oct 28, 2022
Michelle70:
If u have dollar, this is ur best chance to buy naira.

Naira will be difficult to see as the politicians are in a panic mode and will rush every note out there.
Politicians will change their dollars to naira.

CBN will produce much naira's but it may not match demand cos there will be naira rush as u have only 45 days to get enough Naira.
U will go to the bank and hear that there is no money.

Bro pls can you educate me, I thought we are supposed to buy dollar cos our naria is deprecating
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Michelle70(m): 5:10pm On Oct 28, 2022
Brian47:


Bro pls can you educate me, I thought we are supposed to buy dollar cos our naria is deprecating
One reason why dollar appreciates is because it is difficult to find and the demand for it is high.

In simple economics, the higher the demand, the higher the price.

In few months now, the demand for the new Naira will be high.
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Michelle70(m): 5:10pm On Oct 28, 2022
CheapHomes1:


Has there ever been atime cbn wasn't printing enough naira?
Well, i am talking about circulation
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by CheapHomes1: 5:15pm On Oct 28, 2022
Michelle70:
Well, i am talking about circulation

These are your exact words:

"CBN will produce much naira's but it may not match demand cos there will be naira rush as u have only 45 days to get enough Naira. U will go to the bank and hear that there is no money."

Is this about circulation or production?
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by Michelle70(m): 5:17pm On Oct 28, 2022
CheapHomes1:


These are your exact words:

"CBN will produce much naira's but it may not match demand cos there will be naira rush as u have only 45 days to get enough Naira. U will go to the bank and hear that there is no money."

Is this about circulation or production?
Production could match demand but circulation is another thing entirely
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by BreakingNews21: 5:20pm On Oct 28, 2022
This is the first I've heard of this guy. Sounds like he is intimately knowledgeable of the naira parallel currency market that buys up all the notes and resells them at an inflated price. I wouldn't be surprised if he has some friends or partners in high places within the CBN.

"Bismarck Jemide Rewane
Mng Dir/CEO, Financial Derivatives Co Ltd

CURRENT POSITION
Mng Dir/CEO, Financial Derivatives Co Ltd
TENURE AT CURRENT POSITION
PRESENT
PREVIOUS POSITION

Treasurer/General Manager, First Natl Bank

https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/16334164
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by CheapHomes1: 5:28pm On Oct 28, 2022
Michelle70:
Production could match demand but circulation is another thing entirely

That's not what I asked you. These are your exact words:

"CBN will produce much naira's but it may not match demand cos there will be naira rush as u have only 45 days to get enough Naira. U will go to the bank and hear that there is no money."

Is this about circulation or production?
Re: Bismarck Rewane: Naira Redesign May Cause GDP Fall But Not Increased Inflation by GreyLaw(m): 7:46pm On Oct 28, 2022
Agbegbaorogboye:

What is the most pressing issue right now if not inflation and debt

Inflation and debt and you burn through over 50bn from which savings? And this for a policy which may not work? Oga, all the times Nigeria changed the Naira, how did it help fight inflation. Please mention a case study.

Thank you in advance.

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