dochenaj:
When I knew this prediction was going to be thrash was when he said he was only including LP and NNPP to massage the ego of Obi supporters.

That's a clear indication of bias.

But it won't be long and the reality of your failed prediction will stare you in the face.

When that happens don't delete your predictions. Keep it as a reminder to yourself that you are a failed political analyst.

Obviously, mods are lazy these days for such a glaringly manipulated and biased analysis like this to have made front page. Every political Analysis is supposed to be devoid of personal interest and bias, which the op had exhibited. Only if results would be written in hotels would such a warped analysis happen next month, despite the obvious.

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

To even imagine that you know very well that your candidate does not have the personality and you are supporting his, is quite unbelievable.
Someone only said that Nigerians will vote for personality...

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You think this is 2015,you campaigned for Buhari.People are wiser now, your mumu analysis should not be taken serious.Credible opinion polls like Anap that predicted Buhari victory in 2015 have predicted an Obi victory in 2023. The so-called structure of criminality will be destroyed by well meaning Nigerians next month.

Can obi win sokoto?

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

Analysis of an urchin, was Peter Obi in your last 2 predictions? Your analysis is null and void as long as Peter Obi is on the ballot...e go shock una...

PassingShot:

Na here we go dey dey mop una tears on February 25th.

You're seriously downplaying PDP's votes, while raising NNPP votes. NNPP will not have more than 4m votes in total, and Atiku will not lose(if he doesn't win) by 3m votes, maybe 1.5 or 2.

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

Tinubu will win the SW states, while Atiku will win the NW,NE and NC votes and at the end of the day Atiku will win the general election

MrEverest:


Your brain must have been on hibernation mode when you wrote that lengthy piece of garbage. You couldn't even separate sentiments and emotional whims from objective analysis? You just wrote fantasies from your wildest imaginations and present it to people as analysis?

At this point, I will like to know if:

1. You're educated beyond primary 6?
2. Did you write that crap under the influence of hard drugs?
3. What's your IQ?

If you actually believed this garbage you wrote then your mental state is in serious jeopardy.

They're called urchins for a reason.

Passingshot, was there BVAS in 2015 and 2019 elections?🤔

Mumu post. So Kwankwaso will score more votes than Obi. Oluwole prediction😂

Your prediction is nonesene. Lagos didn't produce more than one million votes in 2019. But you somehow think APC would get 800k votes. Anyone that didn't vote for APC in 2019 would vote LP this time.

I Can imagine the level of work poster has put in to gather all thse figures.

you tried. oya go and get paid. tell ur ogas you have passed their message to us. however, we no see or hear anything. sorry.

MrEverest:


Your brain must have been on hibernation mode when you wrote that lengthy piece of garbage. You couldn't even separate sentiments and emotional whims from objective analysis? You just wrote fantasies from your wildest imaginations and present it to people as analysis?

At this point, I will like to know if:

1. You're educated beyond primary 6?
2. Did you write that crap under the influence of hard drugs?
3. What's your IQ?

If you actually believed this garbage you wrote then your mental state is in serious jeopardy.

If you didn't spew this much rubbish, you wouldn't have been a worthy Zombiidiot.

PassingShot:

Na so e pain you reach?

Okay, tell me your alternative projections.

I'll be civil in the use of words.


Your write-up shows you're pro- APC, therefore you missed/undermined some[/b]key factors in this election.

1. State elections is completely different from presidential. Look at Edo state that voted APC Obaseki at state level but Atiku at presidential. Same Osun and Anambra State, all in 2019. The fact that a political party controls more states doesn't necessarily mean victory at the president level. It gives an advantage to a ruling party but this depends on certain factors.

2. You talk about [b]structure like people who don't have the capability to act on their own will. So, if a ruling party is underperforming, they can't seek for alternatives? You really think that the same reason that people vote APC at same level applies to presidential?

3. Has it ever occurred to you that we'll have a situation where we'll see APC/PDP'S members of 2019 vote LP but never the other way around? How? Your so-called strategist with his MUSLIM tickets means should have known better that APC has members of other religious groups. PDP and especially LP is benefitting from your Mr Stategist blunder. This blunder is the reason why LP has gained ground in a short period of time in the South, including your Strategist' SW region.

4. I hope you've noticed that Atiku has been the highest beneficiary of defections, especially in the North while Obi has the highest number of new voters pledging their allegiance while the Tinubu is hoping on vote- buying and existing governors(like you stated) but you've not asked yourself if they're willing to work with him, considering the number of defections up north.? Do you really think the North will ignore Atiku for Tinubu, especially when they place religion above anything else? Do you really think the Christian majority in Middle Belt states and the minorites scattered around NW/NE states will ignore Obi, considering what they've suffered?

4. The fact you gave Rivers to PDP is hilarious, even when there's video evidence that Wike has stated severally that while PDP will win all seats at state level, it will be different at the presidential level. Even without Wike, Rivers State has a high population of igbos and predominantly Christians plus new voters. You really think dey will Atiku?

In summary, the factors that determined APC'S reelection in 2019 is absent in 2023, yes Buhari' cult figure in two regions. Truth is that Atiku stands a better better chance of inheriting Buhari' votes as seen in the defections. Kwankwasor is playing the spoiler's game for Atiku.

5. l'll leave it at this but your thesis doesn't capture the truly realities of 2023

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

Zombidients will come for your head for this unbiased analysis.

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

You said Obi can not win 7 states.

Let's bet the 250k on it.
If Obi fail to win 7 States, take the money. You don't need to share it with anyone.

We don't have to wait for Seun too. Find a popular nairalander we can give the money and wait.

pleasureosondu:
I'll be civil in the use of words.


Your write-up shows you're pro- APC, therefore you missed/undermined some[/b]key factors in this election.

1. State elections is completely different from presidential. Look at Edo state that voted APC Obaseki at state level but Atiku at presidential. Same Osun and Anambra State, all in 2019. The fact that a political party controls more states doesn't necessarily mean victory at the president level. It gives an advantage to a ruling party but this depends on certain factors.

2. You talk about [b]structure like people who don't have the capability to act on their own will. So, if a ruling party is underperforming, they can't seek for alternatives? You really think that the same reason that people vote APC at same level applies to presidential?

3. Has it ever occurred to you that we'll have a situation where we'll see APC/PDP'S members of 2019 vote LP but never the other way around? How? Your so-called strategist with his MUSLIM tickets means should have known better that APC has members of other religious groups. PDP and especially LP is benefitting from your Mr Stategist blunder. This blunder is the reason why LP has gained ground in a short period of time in the South, including your Strategist' SW region.

4. I hope you've noticed that Atiku has been the highest beneficiary of defections, especially in the North while Obi has the highest number of new voters pledging their allegiance while the Tinubu is hoping on vote- buying and existing governors(like you stated) but you've not asked yourself if they're willing to work with him, considering the number of defections up north.? Do you really think the North will ignore Atiku for Tinubu, especially when they place religion above anything else? Do you really think the Christian majority in Middle Belt states and the minorites scattered around NW/NE states will ignore Obi, considering what they've suffered?

4. The fact you gave Rivers to PDP is hilarious, even when there's video evidence that Wike has stated severally that while PDP will win all seats at state level, it will be different at the presidential level. Even without Wike, Rivers State has a high population of igbos and predominantly Christians plus new voters. You really think dey will Atiku?

In summary, the factors that determined APC'S reelection in 2019 is absent in 2023, yes Buhari' cult figure in two regions. Truth is that Atiku stands a better better chance of inheriting Buhari' votes as seen in the defections. Kwankwasor is playing the spoiler's game for Atiku.

5. l'll leave it at this but your thesis doesn't capture the truly realities of 2023

In 32 days, I will quote some of you about this prediction.

Don't worry, e go soon clear.

PassingShot:

Na so e pain you reach?

Okay, tell me your alternative projections.

You didn't reply that guy that said;

You gave Oyo state that is controlled by PDP to to an APC candidate because of Tribe, But you gave a Fulani state like Katsina to APC because of party

If Tinubu can win Oyo state because he is Yoruba.
Why can't Kwankwaso it Atiku win Katsina?

You dodged the guy.

I was reading your analysis with an open mind, until that guy unveiled your delusion and bias.

ZUBY77:



You said Obi can not win 7 states.

Let's bet the 250k on it.
If Obi fail to win 7 States, take the money. You don't need to share it with anyone.

We don't have to wait for Seun too. Find a popular nairalander we can give the money and wait.

Look for someone who can do it. I won't take the money if you lose but I will share it with my N250 here. I am waiting for you.

Jack500:
It is only a daft person that will doubt Tinubu win in February.

We will be here to remind some people

you may not be here because you may av drink water battery after you hear the winner NOTED

SenatePresdo:


You didn't reply that guy that said;

You gave Oyo state that is controlled by PDP to to an APC candidate because of Tribe, But you gave a Fulani state like Katsina to APC because of party

If Tinubu can win Oyo state because he is Yoruba.
Why can't Kwankwaso it Atiku win Katsina?

You dodged the guy.

I was reading your analysis with an open mind, until that guy unveiled your delusion and bias.

Point me to the post you are referencing. I must have missed it as there are too many "mentions".

In any case, I gave Oyo to Tinubu not only because he's Yoruba but also because PDP is fractured in the state.

I gave Kano to Tinubu not only because he's APC but also because he has strong political allies there and the party is still very strong there.

And if Tinubu would lose Kano, it won't have much effect on his overall showing because he wouldn't lose scandalously there. The worst is for him to get 30% or 35% in Kano or even in the entire NW, which is a very unlikely possibility.

PassingShot:

Look for someone who can do it. I won't take the money if you lose but I will share it with my N250 here. I am waiting for you.

Do you even have up to 20K in your Account?

Abeg, swerve joor!

JealousCobra:


Do you even have up to 20K in your Account?

Abeg, swerve joor!

Kid.

Edo no be Lagos.

APC WILL NEVER WIN EDO STATE.

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

I can predict who you are if you want me to, from your choice of words

Seefinish:
Town Hall ( 2023 election) different from balablu ( other elections)
Nigerians are going to vote personality and not political party

Shut up..

Oct 2020 endsardist Political newbie..

Ennoloa:
It’s you that need rest

You state Atiku would win Rivers state

You say Tinubu would win Kano

Do you know who is even Kwankwanso

Keep on fooling yourself

You think people are voting based on Political parties

You stay in Osogbo and be predicting for states you don’t know what’s trending there


You are so funny that you gave Oyo a PDP state to APC based on ethnicity but you gave Katsina a Fulani APC state APC based on party

You reek of delusion

Well said. Same passingshot predicted that Atiku would lose Adamawa in 2019. He even wagered me. He went offline since then. Now he don come again 🤣

Ennoloa:
It’s you that need rest

You state Atiku would win Rivers state

You say Tinubu would win Kano

Do you know who is even Kwankwanso

Keep on fooling yourself

You think people are voting based on Political parties

You stay in Osogbo and be predicting for states you don’t know what’s trending there


You are so funny that you gave Oyo a PDP state to APC based on ethnicity but you gave Katsina a Fulani APC state APC based on party

You reek of delusion

no mind the hediot, he's still in 2019 elections... Watch how this year unfolds.

PassingShot:

In 32 days, I will quote some of you about this prediction.

Don't worry, e go soon clear.

I expected a well-informed reply. You can do better.

Your thesis would have gained weight if they APC/PDP had a sellable candidate. One of reason why Buhari' is sellable was due reputation as a former general who would combat Boko/Harm. He didn't have the financial prowess but they did it.

Structures are built first, on an ideology that attracts people. Then, you use resources to spread it and finally, execute the idea so as to retain and attract more individuals to your base or structure. That's how different religions and political parties evolve. Buhari failed on his idea (manifesto), making it difficult to market APC while Tinubu has not said anything meaningful but he's hoping on Northern governors to deliver, forgetting that the same governors have a basis for their own structure, religion and ethnicity.

Like I stated earlier, you consider winning an election simply from the perspective of the ruling party but you ignored the fact that if factors that helped the party to gain power ain't maintained, change is inevitable. Ask GEJ.

SenatePresdo:


You didn't reply that guy that said;

You gave Oyo state that is controlled by PDP to to an APC candidate because of Tribe, But you gave a Fulani state like Katsina to APC because of party

If Tinubu can win Oyo state because he is Yoruba.
Why can't Kwankwaso it Atiku win Katsina?

You dodged the guy.

I was reading your analysis with an open mind, until that guy unveiled your delusion and bias.

Pdp control of Oyo is not strong,it is just at the state level.most people in Oyo have clearly vowed to vote tinubu.Oyo has just one tribe.
In katsina, apc is in complete control of the state plus they are two tribes here.buhari is from here so they will always vote his party

Someone who couldn't pass Maths without runs in WAEC is analysing data on Nairaland. @PassingShot conjuring numbers from thin air and typing them on a spreadsheet does not make you a data analyst. Leave data analytics to the professionals at ANAP, NOI Polls and Bloomberg.

urchin has spoken 🙄