garfield1:


They are divided.

SenatePresdo:


Divided between who and who?

Who did Katsina people said they would vote for in presidential election?

garfield1:


No one

SenatePresdo:


Then there is no point saying that Tinubu would win katsina over Atiku or kwankwaso.

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

garfield1:


Whoever wins will do so narrowly

SenatePresdo:


That's if will be Tinubu that would win.

But If Katsina people decides to vote for Kwankwaso or Atiku, it won't be a narrow win.

SenatePresdo:


Your write up was well structured, I agree, but you didn't hide your sentiments, and I understand.


In Kano state 2019 presidential election,

APC (Buhari) got 1,464,768 (78.9 per cent) of the total votes cast to beat the Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who polled 391,593 (21.1 per cent).

PDP didn't even get the required 25% in Kano state.

But guess what?

A week later, In Kano state Governorship election,

APC (incumbent Ganduje) polled 1,033,695 while the PDP got 1,024,713 votes out of a total of 2,269,305 Accredited Voters in the state.
Ganduje won the election with just a margin of 8,982 votes.

If party and structure is the major criteria for voting like you want to make us believe with your article.

Why then did APC got over 1 million vote margin in presidential election, and just under 9,000 in Governorship election a week later? What happened to the structure in less than a week?

My opinion based on obvious observations is that; candidate plays a major factor before party and structure, if not, Ganduje should had as well won with over 1 million vote margin like Buhari did.

Buhari won't be on the ballot again..

Coming to 2023 elections, Tinubu is sure going to get significant votes in kano, but I doubt structure would make him win the state.

I'm Tipping kwankwaso to win the state, ahead of Tinubu, its already obvious Kano state doesn't like Atiku.

I would tip Kwankwaso to get 50- 60%, Tinubu 25-30%, Atiku 10-15%. Obi may not get more than 5% if at all anybody votes for him in Kano.

Ennoloa:
It’s you that need rest

You state Atiku would win Rivers state

You say Tinubu would win Kano

Do you know who is even Kwankwanso

Keep on fooling yourself

You think people are voting based on Political parties

You stay in Osogbo and be predicting for states you don’t know what’s trending there


You are so funny that you gave Oyo a PDP state to APC based on ethnicity but you gave Katsina a Fulani APC state APC based on party

You reek of delusion

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

router123:
my issues with LP is that when i looked into osun state governorship election, i found out that the number of votes casted for LP in the whole state is less than the no of polling unites in the state. so the question is: didnt LP polling agent vote at all? or they voted for other party candidate

MrCGPA:
Just like you reiterated that your Analysis failed in 2019, here you are repeating again. Your types are so uninformed about what's happening in other parts of Nigeria. Imagine you saying PDP will win Rivers State for presidential Election and I was Cold at the Magnitude of your Stack Ignorance. You know little or Nothing about Nigeria in Entirety. Tinubu will Fail Woefully in the North and he will be the Last Grandfather to Dare Muslim -Muslim Ticket in Presidential Election in Nigeria. 2023 presidential Election is different from your Known Conventional Voting Pattern and you must know that.

Ennoloa:
It’s you that need rest

You state Atiku would win Rivers state

You say Tinubu would win Kano

Do you know who is even Kwankwanso

Keep on fooling yourself

You think people are voting based on Political parties

You stay in Osogbo and be predicting for states you don’t know what’s trending there


You are so funny that you gave Oyo a PDP state to APC based on ethnicity but you gave Katsina a Fulani APC state APC based on party

You reek of delusion

peculiar2233:

I no like am ooo
Na that Osogbo wey u mention vex me pass cuz we no get this kind dull person for my state ooo

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

garfield1:


It will be.all are evenly matched.only buhari can win heavily.

SenatePresdo:


Most core northern states have a herd mentality when it comes to presidential election, any candidate a state decides to vote for would give a significant gap to his competitors.
Till then...

garfield1:


Not atiku.he doesn't have the qualities until someone like buhari emerges

SenatePresdo:


Kwankwaso is way too popular in core North, I won't see it as surprising if he wins the whole NW.

raumdeuter:
I think your predictions are too generous to APC in the North and too generous to PDP in the SS at the expense of LP

I expect LP to win about 2 SS states in addition to the 5 SE states
Out of 19 Northern states, I expect PDP to win about 7

So

APC = 17 states (All SW, Kwara Kogi, Zamfara Borno Yobe, Katsina Jigawa Niger )
LP = 8 states (All SE, 2 SS and FCT)
PDP =11 states (Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Adamawa Taraba Gombe Bauchi Plateau Sokoto Kebbi)
NNPP 1 state (Kano)

MiaBeer:

Take the damn medicine. You’re off track

Taiggarr:


Your mama na my medicine..I need her..I am.sure off track..

Ennoloa:
It’s you that need rest

You state Atiku would win Rivers state

You say Tinubu would win Kano

Do you know who is even Kwankwanso

Keep on fooling yourself

You think people are voting based on Political parties

You stay in Osogbo and be predicting for states you don’t know what’s trending there


You are so funny that you gave Oyo a PDP state to APC based on ethnicity but you gave Katsina a Fulani APC state APC based on party

You reek of delusion

PassingShot:

Na so e pain you reach?

Okay, tell me your alternative projections.

SadiqBabaSani:
A very useless Thread by a very cynical op,

When Obi becomes, how can you even Predict Atiku to win rivers 😂😂😂 Are you even following the mood of the nation at all?

IncredibleWrite:
Can you imagine the stupidity? Telling us on ground that Atiku will win Rivers state. I didn't bother to even go further after seeing that. Let him take a trip down here to PH and say it to our face.

Tinubu will win SW but Kwnakwaso and Atiku will loose to Tinubu in NW. Let him keep deceiving himself in the name of analysis.

2023 election is unpredictable. No person can claim to know exactly how it will turn out because there are too many gladiators in the field.

This is not 2015 or 2019 elections where it was a two-horse race. My assumption is that there would be a run off which Obi will be among the last men standing.

IncredibleWrite:
Can you imagine the stupidity? Telling us on ground that Atiku will win Rivers state. I didn't bother to even go further after seeing that. Let him take a trip down here to PH and say it to our face.

Tinubu will win SW but Kwnakwaso and Atiku will loose to Tinubu in NW. Let him keep deceiving himself in the name of analysis.

2023 election is unpredictable. No person can claim to know exactly how it will turn out because there are too many gladiators in the field.

This is not 2015 or 2019 elections where it was a two-horse race. My assumption is that there would be a run off which Obi will be among the last men standing.

MrCGPA:
Just like you reiterated that your Analysis failed in 2019, here you are repeating again. Your types are so uninformed about what's happening in other parts of Nigeria. Imagine you saying PDP will win Rivers State for presidential Election and I was Cold at the Magnitude of your Stack Ignorance. You know little or Nothing about Nigeria in Entirety. Tinubu will Fail Woefully in the North and he will be the Last Grandfather to Dare Muslim -Muslim Ticket in Presidential Election in Nigeria. 2023 presidential Election is different from your Known Conventional Voting Pattern and you must know that.