lucro:
Edo no be Lagos.

APC WILL NEVER WIN EDO STATE.

It's just like saying APC will Anambra and River State.

Taiggarr:


Shut up..

Oct 2020 endsardist Political newbie..

Take the damn medicine. You’re off track

Analyzed by a Super Urchin.

DEAD ON ARRIVAL

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

You're a definition of delusion. Tinubu to win Kano. You all Tinubu urchins will cry blood next month

PassingShot:

Na so e pain you reach?

Okay, tell me your alternative projections.

Guy stop deceiving yourself. Tinubu can never rule Nigeria. Nigerians are much wiser now but you urchins don't want to admit it

So unfortunate Nigerian don't even know anything about their country. Only two conditions can make Obi to be President; Either he go back to PDP or the major politicians join his LP. In this election no prominent politician has joined him therefore forget about him winning. You can kiss transformer if this is not ok by you

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

Lol
I hope they really pay you well for this act of sheer stewpidity…..Cos even keyamo, Femi n Your agbado master will laugh at your been extremely generous to Apc…..
Am not supposed to respond to this jargon n trash written here but I will like to place a bet to you that your Tinubu will not win more than 7 states in this forthcoming elections…..

To live in self delusion is the biggest foolery anyone can engage in. Looking at the results of some states like Plateau for example, makes you a complete joke

You are spot on OP... Very logical analysis with an excellent presentation.

caracas:

Lol
I hope they really pay you well for this act of sheer stewpidity…..
Am not supposed to respond to this jargon n trash written here but I will like to place a bet to you that your Tinubu will not win more than 7 states in this forthcoming elections…..

Dindinrin ndin robo.

Mrfixitt:
Guy stop deceiving yourself. Tinubu can never rule Nigeria. Nigerians are much wiser now but you urchins don't want to admit it

Another zombiidiot

Have you seen

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

Oga we're voting for personality, individuals and not Party.

We're not fools, we're wiser now

PassingShot:

Another zombiidiot

You have been doing this zombie work before 2015 yet you still into it living a wretched life. Go get a job bro, you're wasting away, just an Advice

I stopped reading this your article the moment I noticed you were biased about your analysis and speaking as a card carrying member of APC. If you want people to see reasons with your article you must articulate from a neutral standpoint. Your a member of APC and how do I not expect that you will predict that APC will win.

One thing I know in life is that change is constant. Only few believed APC would win 2019 presidential election and they did.

It's the continues deception, corruption and electoral thuggery is what you people call structure, this structure is exactly what has kept Nigeria were she is today.

What will be will be. If it's the will of God that APC will loose the presidential election not even your biased analysis here will avail that.

You must high on some cheap weed thinking Nigerians are stupid and illiterate to massively vote for Balablu. A man who is partially physically and mentally disabled.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You think this is 2015,you campaigned for Buhari.People are wiser now, your mumu analysis should not be taken serious.Credible opinion polls like Anap that predicted Buhari victory in 2015 have predicted an Obi victory in 2023. The so-called structure of criminality will be destroyed by well meaning Nigerians next month.

Leave am , his poll is more credible than anap .

Never seen a more useless analysis in my entire life .

Anyway

Mrfixitt:
You have been doing this zombie work before 2015 yet you still into it living a wretched life. Go get a job bro, you're wasting away, just an Advice

"Musu" who knows about me and my life. A complete dolt!

Obidients won't like this kind of analysis. All they want is self-deception

Ten06:
Have you seen anyone OBJ support that fail presidential election before? To hell with your structure, the youth are the Labour Party structure.
OBJ is the spokeman of the retire Generals and they have spoken. It will do you like film

Mumu who doesn't even know that OBJ anointed Atiku in 2019 but they both failed woefully.

Na kids una be.

my issues with LP is that when i looked into osun state governorship election, i found out that the number of votes casted for LP in the whole state is less than the no of polling unites in the state. so the question is: didnt LP polling agent vote at all? or they voted for other party candidate

Dramadiddy:
NNPP having 5 million votes is where i knew you’re a joker.

1. 2015/2019 is different from 2023

2. social media penetration has improved drastically between 2015-2023

3. i hope you are aware that nobody can visit a polling unit with 100 PVCs and vote, that is the structure that YOU predicted.

4. LP has polling unit agents across all polling units, you could have made a more extensive research if you did not have the facts.

5. you say a party cannot win without “structure” please tell me the other “structure” apart from bullying due to absence of polling unit agents?

in all totality your predictions are flawed. you may have gotten it right with the fact that you knew rigging was part of the elections back then, BVAS cancels out all these, so i suggest you go back to the drawing board with new facts

Beer parlour analysis

TheChameleon:


I trust the OP. Haven't even read the article but I know it will be a brutal reality check.

Modified : brilliant analysis. Tinubu a master strategist already has some proteges.

If Nigeria has 70% youth with thinking capacity of the OP... Nigeria would be close to USA.

Very meticulous and well researched.

He's your fellow urchin supporting your failed candidate so why won't you agree with him?

PassingShot:

Point me to the post you are referencing. I must have missed it as there are too many "mentions".

In any case, I gave Oyo to Tinubu not only because he's Yoruba but also because PDP is fractured in the state.

I gave Kano to Tinubu not only because he's APC but also because he has strong political allies there and the party is still very strong there.

And if Tinubu would lose Kano, it won't have much effect on his overall showing because he wouldn't lose scandalously there. The worst is for him to get 30% or 35% in Kano or even in the entire NW, which is a very unlikely possibility.

Your write up was well structured, I agree, but you didn't hide your sentiments, and I understand.


In Kano state 2019 presidential election,

APC (Buhari) got 1,464,768 (78.9 per cent) of the total votes cast to beat the Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who polled 391,593 (21.1 per cent).

PDP didn't even get the required 25% in Kano state.

But guess what?

A week later, In Kano state Governorship election,

APC (incumbent Ganduje) polled 1,033,695 while the PDP got 1,024,713 votes out of a total of 2,269,305 Accredited Voters in the state.
Ganduje won the election with just a margin of 8,982 votes.

If party and structure is the major criteria for voting like you want to make us believe with your article.

Why then did APC got over 1 million vote margin in presidential election, and just under 9,000 in Governorship election a week later? What happened to the structure in less than a week?

My opinion based on obvious observations is that; candidate plays a major factor before party and structure, if not, Ganduje should had as well won with over 1 million vote margin like Buhari did.

Buhari won't be on the ballot again..

Coming to 2023 elections, Tinubu is sure going to get significant votes in kano, but I doubt structure would make him win the state.

I'm Tipping kwankwaso to win the state, ahead of Tinubu, its already obvious Kano state doesn't like Atiku.

I would tip Kwankwaso to get 50- 60%, Tinubu 25-30%, Atiku 10-15%. Obi may not get more than 5% if at all anybody votes for him in Kano.

PassingShot:
NORTH CENTRAL ZONE
For a straight forward analysis, I have included FCT in the NC region.

Against my prediction that PDP would win two states in the NC in 2019, the party won FCT to take their win their to three. The herdsmen issue I believed was largely responsible for PDP's showing in 2019 is no longer a major factor in 2023. Also, the fact that Simon Lalong the sitting governor of Plateau state is APC's PCC DG is making me to give APC an edge in Plateu with a win of 35% of the total votes here.

Generally, I am predicting a win percentage of around 38% for APC across this region. Not much if you ask me. I expect PDP to compete very well here, especially in Benue, Plateu, Nassarawa and FCT. I expect a fierce battle between APC and PDP in Benue especially with a very popular governorship candidate of APC there. As such, I believe Benue can go either the way of PDP or APC.

Obi's strongest showing will be in FCT, Plateu (20% each) and Nassarawa (15%). I expect Kwankwaso to outperform Obi in this region with 18% of the total votes.

NORTH EAST ZONE
In 2019, PDP won Adamawa by 32,188 more votes than APC. I expected the same to happen in this year's election. I could have allocated more votes to Atiku here but for presence of Kwankwaso whom I expect to score around 20% of the votes across the region.

Looking at the margin by which APC beat PDP in Bauchi, Borno, Gombe and Yobe in 2019 (by hundreds of thousands of votes) and considering that APC maintains their dependable governors and footsoldiers their, I expect the party to still be victorous in the NE region this time as well, albeit with a reduced win margin (45% overall of votes) except in Taraba and Adamawa where I predict a PDP win.

I expect Kwankwaso to score between 20% and 25% in the NE while I do not expect Obi to score more than 2% (2 votes in 100) except in Taraba where I have him getting around 15% (15 from 100 votes).

. The movers and shakers know how to restrict LP votes to 200,231 in each state of the SE like they did in 2019 fir PDP.I come in peace!

garfield1:


Pdp control of Oyo is not strong,it is just at the state level.most people in Oyo have clearly vowed to vote tinubu.Oyo has just one tribe.
In katsina, apc is in complete control of the state plus they are two tribes here.buhari is from here so they will always vote his party

Oyo people clearly vowed to vote Tinubu, who did Katsina people vowed to vote?

Please 🙏 moderators should remove that BS from front page.it doesn't make sense

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You think this is 2015,you campaigned for Buhari.People are wiser now, your mumu analysis should not be taken serious.Credible opinion polls like Anap that predicted Buhari victory in 2015 have predicted an Obi victory in 2023. The so-called structure of criminality will be destroyed by well meaning Nigerians next month.

Were people not wiser in 2019 after watching Buhari for 4years in office stink about?

Smile. You just wanted 5 minutes of my time.

SadiqBabaSani:
A very useless Thread by a very cynical op,

When Obi becomes, how can you even Predict Atiku to win rivers 😂😂😂 Are you even following the mood of the nation at all?

He is using the Logarithm Rule to try and solve a Quadratic Equation.

They say no information is sometimes better than incomplete information.

Got a good laugh though reading this though, thanks OP 😂😂😂

PS: It is interesting that all the 5 states OP failed to predict correctly in the last election were for incorrectly projecting APC as the winner. Clear bias lol

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

perfectly analyzed

SenatePresdo:


Oyo people clearly vowed to vote Tinubu, who did Katsina people vowed to vote?

They are divided.