Jobman222:




You can't prove beyond any reasonable doubt that I voted these candidates to office, yet you confidently accuse a total stranger.
Since you can't help, why can't you look on as others did ?

I never said you did, i asked if you did,


Every body is a stranger on here, we cannot see each other's or anybody's face or even know their true names and locations, yes, you are correct, you are a stranger how can anyone even confirm your story? It sounds like every other so many stories faceless people posts on here soliciting for help. So don't think your own story sounds different, relevant or true..

Well.. others are foolish for helping.

Good luck.

CodeTemplar:
I disagree. It is a combination of factors. Low productivity is one but printing and circulating excess money "carelessly" is another major factor.

There's no point attaching "carelessly" to printing and circulating excess money. It's already a definition of carelessness. While this might be the major cause of rising inflation in the country, I think it has minimal impact on foreign exchange.
While I believe the rising inflation is not just a Nigerian thing at the moment (at least, from my experience in Egypt and Canada), we imported most of it, due to our dependence on other countries.

DeOTR:

There's no point attaching "carelessly" to printing and circulating excess money. It's already a definition of carelessness. While this might be the major cause of rising inflation in the country, I think it has minimal impact on foreign exchange.
While I believe the rising inflation is not just a Nigerian thing at the moment (at least, from my experience in Egypt and Canada), we imported most of it, due to our dependence on other countries.

Rising inflation is 50% due to the naira. This is why even troubled Bfaso, Mali, Niger all have low inflation due to stable currency.

DeOTR:

Our currency is falling because we have a largely unproductive human capital. We should be deliberately devaluing our currency to gain competitive advantage if things were right.
We spend naira, but everytime the value falls, the price of everything goes up. You don't need an expert to tell you our economy is over dependent on importation.
We have food shortage, yes, but how's the strength of our currency suppose to help on that if you're not thinking about importing it?
A nation that can not feed herself, and you want a strong currency? Dey play.

I agree with almost everything you are saying. In fact, you are making my point. We have a failed government.
Why do you think we can't feed ourselves and why do you think we are dependent on importation?
Your government has made it practically impossible for production and businesses to thrive. I am talking as a business owner.
On the other hand, all our neighboring countries are also import dependent but they still have better managed economics so our problems are beyond a lack of productivity.
We suffer from a completely failed system.
Do you realize that only few years past, thousands of people from Benin, Togo, and Niger used to come to Nigeria every year to work as farm hands?
Now you hardly find any of them. It's no longer profitable for them. It's now the other way round. We have hundreds of Nigerians hawking on the streets of Ghana and Abidjan.
All these happened in just a few short years.

tctrills:

The problem is not the Nigerian farmer, it's the Nigerian currency.
And yes large investments into agriculture is the solution.
Then again, the problem is not that we don't have enough farmers. We actually have more farmers than the US and EU put together. Having more farmers would only lead to more poverty. What you need is to increase the productivity of your farmers.
This takes huge investments.

There is nothing wrong with the naira. Its value is the best at the moment. I even wish for further devaluation. We don't need a strong naira. What for? Are we Singapore or Switzerland?

ThebestPromise:
In one breath you said nigeria as a country produces nothing but only consumes and now you are blaming the government for a policy that will self motivate the farmers.

Let me break it down so that many will understand it better:

1. The purpose of dealuation of currency is to stimulate production for exportation.

2. More monies to the farmers will literally mean increase of investment in Agro allied businesses.

3. More production and more players in the industry will drop the price in the long run and increase employment rates in the country.

4. If implementated, the commodity produce system promised by the PBAT will protect the commodity market in Nigeria.

5. Unlike the previous years, despite the abnormal last minutedemands for local rice, the market did not shake because there is more than enough to sell.

Good analysis, but the bold has been cancelled. Good a thing, as it would worsen the industry. Once commodities prices are regulated by the government, it brings forth penury. It is agro-commodites o, not one valuable resource. Even the most successful cartel - OPEC - has found it difficult to ensure higher prices for its members because of the growing number of oil producers outside the organisation.

Price controls do more harm than good (it does no good sef) to any economy or industry or country.

tctrills:


I agree with almost everything you are saying. In fact, you are making my point. We have a failed government.
Why do you think we can't feed ourselves and why do you think we are dependent on importation?
Your government has made it practically impossible for production and businesses to thrive. I am talking as a business owner.
On the other hand, all our neighboring countries are also import dependent but they still have better managed economics so our problems
Now you hardly find any of them. It's no longer profitable for them. It's now the other way round. We have hundreds of Nigerians hawking on the streets of Ghana and Abidjan.
All these happened in just a few short years.

Factors such as epileptic power supply, insecurity, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic processes, NOT weak currency.

Gerrard59:


Factors such as epileptic power supply, insecurity, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic processes, NOT weak currency.

Sir please do your research on the effects of a failing currency
Take early 1930s Germany, Zimbabwe and Argentina as case study.
I am not telling you abstract things.
Just read and learn.
You currency was the 3rd worse performing currency of 2023. Do you really think it has no effect on your economy?
What happened to the cost of infrastructure as your currency falls? Simple answer, it goes up.
If a tractor used to cost 100 million naira, it now cost 200 million.
Bro, you should know these things.

Gerrard59:


There is nothing wrong with the naira. Its value is the best at the moment. I even wish for further devaluation. We don't need a strong naira. What for? Are we Singapore or Switzerland?

That's very wrong.
If you were an exporting country, you would love a devalued naira but as an importing nation which we are, you need a strong naira.
Nigerian businesses and industries are becoming less competitive and it's becoming more risky to invest in Nigeria.
Would you want your investment in a failing currency market?
A weak currency has little to no advantage to us as a nation for now.
Surely, a few will benefit from a falling Naira. I actually benefit from it but to pretend that it isn't hurting us, that's a big lie.

tctrills:


That's very wrong.
If you were an exporting country, you would love a devalued naira but as an importing nation which we are, you need a strong naira

On one hand, you want Nigeria to be a major exporter. On the other hand, you want a strong naira. Sorry, things don't work that way.

Nigerian businesses and industries are becoming less competitive and it's becoming more risky to invest in Nigeria.

That is not true. If our businesses are becoming less competitive, why are foreign merchants coming to buy agricultural produce from Nigerian farmers? Why did they not go to Ghana? Benin Republic? Manufacturers have been able to sell their products to the West African market because these products are cheaper than previously.

Would you want your investment in a failing currency market?

Yes. Japan, South Korea and China attract tons of investments. The naira is stronger than the Won of South Korea. Is that a bad or good thing?

A weak currency has little to no advantage to us as a nation for now.

A weak naira is Nigeria's major option for industrialisation. How can we compete with Chinese-made goods if the naira is strong? How can our textile industries compete with Bangladesh? Nigeria is too populated to have a strong currency. Highly populous countries MUST have weak currencies for them to thrive economically. Is there any country with over a hundred million people with a currency as strong as Swiss Franc?

A factor to having a strong currency is crude oil or other relevant natural resource like copper or lithium, just like the Emiratis or Chileans, but we have OVER TWO HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE. We produce less crude for our gigantic populace.

Surely, a few will benefit from a falling Naira. I actually benefit from it but to pretend that it isn't hurting us, that's a big lie.

Those into importation should change focus to exports.

Then this since I want it to be one post:

What happened to the cost of infrastructure as your currency falls? Simple answer, it goes up.
If a tractor used to cost 100 million naira, it now cost 200 million.
Bro, you should know these things.

This is where I disagree with govt policies. Import levies should be scrapped on heavy equipment meant for productivity and manufacturing. Slapping high import levies on all products isn't good. Security should be improved across all boards so people can conduct their businesses safely. Those are the factors behind infrastructure cost, not necessarily a weak currency. East Asian nations used the revenues derived from the export of goods (weak currencies aided this) to develop other sectors. Hong Kong was once a hub for clothing and cheap electronics manufacturing. Today, that is not the case.

I don't know why you referenced Germany in the '30s, but the Argentina and Zimbabwe cases resulted from socialism and nationalisation. Zimbabwe also suffered from Western sanctions because Mugabe seized lands from white farmers. Apples to oranges.

GeneralDae:

It's not even hard currency they are paying. It's CFA which makes this worse than I initially thought.

Chai we are screwed.

Gerrard59:


On one hand, you want Nigeria to be a major exporter. On the other hand, you want a strong naira. Sorry, things don't work that way.
Oga it actually works that way. You don't destroy your currency if you want to grow your industrial capacity. It's only after you have a large export based economy that a weak currency would favor you. Don't put the cart before the horse.



That is not true. If our businesses are becoming less competitive, why are foreign merchants coming to buy agricultural produce from Nigerian farmers? Why did they not go to Ghana? Benin Republic? Manufacturers have been able to sell their products to the West African market because these products are cheaper than previously.

This is actually not a relevant point. First, no one told you that merchants do not go to other countries to buy products. Thousands of the cows you eat come in from Chad and Niger.
Please don't say what you don't know.


Yes. Japan, South Korea and China attract tons of investments. The naira is stronger than the Won of South Korea. Is that a bad or good thing?

You are not making sense here. You mentioned 3 counties but the Naira only happens to be stronger than 1 of them.
Now if south Korea was a net importer, having a weak currency would have destroyed their economy. Hope you are understanding


A weak naira is Nigeria's major option for industrialisation. How can we compete with Chinese-made goods if the naira is strong? How can our textile industries compete with Bangladesh? Nigeria is too populated to have a strong currency. Highly populous countries MUST have weak currencies for them to thrive economically. Is there any country with over a hundred million people with a currency as strong as Swiss Franc?
Wrong.
A weak currency is a recipe for poverty and disaster in a poor import dependent country.
Here is why.
1. It's unattractive to investors. No foreign investor in interested in earning Naira.
2. It put a strain on our foreign reserves.
3. It leads to hyperinflation.
4. It makes infrastructure very expensive.
5. It makes the cost of investment very expensive.
For example industries and farmers would find it more difficult to buy machinery.
The price of a new tractor has doubled in less than a year. The cost of agro chemicals have 4x. This ultimately reduces production

A factor to having a strong currency is crude oil or other relevant natural resource like copper or lithium, just like the Emiratis or Chileans, but we have OVER TWO HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE. We produce less crude for our gigantic populace.

Please explain how have a gigantic population affects the strength of the naira?

Those into importation should change focus to exports.

Then this since I want it to be one post:
That would be a very unwise decision. There is a reason why industries are folding up and many foreign companies are running away from Nigeria.
Asking a business to switch from import to production in the Nigerian environment would be suicidal for more than 90% of them. If P&g with over 100 years of experience and multi billions could not survive the harsh environment than you are being wicked for requiring people to switch to production.

I don't know why you referenced Germany in the '30s, but the Argentina and Zimbabwe cases resulted from socialism and nationalisation. Zimbabwe also suffered from Western sanctions because Mugabe seized lands from white farmers. Apples to oranges.

China is a socialist republic.
The Nordic countries have as much socialist policies as Argentina and Zimbabwe. And yes, Zimbabwean currency fell as a result of bad government policies just like in Nigeria.
So this proves that bad government policies weakens your currency. The most recent case is that of Sri Lanka. Please read more.

Instead of some commentators to scratch beneath the surface of this report, they're more interested in insulting FPMB & PBAT because that's the most convenient thing to do.

For me, I think this report is an indictment on northern governors and farmers who always blame the soaring prices of food stuff especially grains & cereals on the obvious security challenges in the region; while this is a contributing factor, this Daily Trust report has opened up another angle.

It's now obvious that our northern farmers instead of selling their grains at prevailing market prices, prefer to make a killing by selling to these merchants & moneybags from across our borders; now, where successive governments up till this point take the blame is that they've not done anything to make our borderlines more secured to prevent smuggling of critical foodstuffs out of Nigeria as well as trafficking of small and light arms.

What Government can do is to ensure food security first for the populace by setting up commodity boards, provide farmers with inputs at subsidized rates, off take farm produce from farmers at fair prices, encourage private investors to set up industries for processing some of these commodities (soy beans, sesame seeds, etc) into finished products instead of simply smuggling them through our porous borders as raw materials among other steps.

Production is the key to Nigeria problem, China is a poor and a corrupt country before, Nigeria is bigger than China before. Along the line the citizens get tired and elected a competent man, the man kill corruption in China, if u are caught in corruption cases u will hang to death. The same man took China from consumption to production nation, China now is the most powerful and rich country in the whole world now just because of a good leaders they choose. The man is still their president till now, Nigerians this is the time we need to act like China people, Nigerians doesn't suppose to be poor because we have big natural resources that Americans, Asian, Europe countries doesn't have. We lack good leaders and majority of the citizens are the cause of it, we elect bad leaders. And I still maintain that Productions is the key

There are ways that can be done and it will still be beneficial to the masses. This can be done through tangible and intangible means.

If the country decides to hold a stake in the Agro allied industries using Lagos business Model, the price can be controlled instead of throwing the masses under the capitalist buses.

The state can also mopped up the products and sell through credit facilities from States to Local governments. The IBB government was doing and making it a win win scenarios for stakeholders.

Gerrard59:


Good analysis, but the bold has been cancelled. Good a thing, as it would worsen the industry. Once commodities prices are regulated by the government, it brings forth penury. It is agro-commodites o, not one valuable resource. Even the most successful cartel - OPEC - has found it difficult to ensure higher prices for its members because of the growing number of oil producers outside the organisation.

Price controls do more harm than good (it does no good sef) to any economy or industry or country.

ThebestPromise:

There are ways that can be done and it will still be beneficial to the masses. This can be done through tangible and intangible means.

If the country decides to hold a stake in the Agro allied industries using Lagos business Model, the price can be controlled instead of throwing the masses under the capitalist buses.
The state can also mopped up the products and sell through credit facilities from States to Local governments. The IBB government was doing and making it a win win scenarios for stakeholders.

I don't know how else to explain this, but price controls HAVE NEVER WORKED ANYWHERE in any aspect of the economy. Buhari did the same agro-commodity price controls during the 1980s, YET food prices ballooned. Why do we like to repeat mistakes? The same thing you want Tinubu to do, Buhari did the same thing more than 30 years ago. Why should it work now?!

Also, you cannot dictate how much a business should price its products or services. Additionally, the state (public sector), and most definitely various Nigerian governments, has never been efficient in running businesses. Businesses exist to earn profits, not serve the masses.

Gerrard59:
I don't know how else to explain this, but price controls HAVE NEVER WORKED ANYWHERE in any aspect of the economy. Buhari did the same agro-commodity price controls during the 1980s, YET food prices ballooned. Why do we like to repeat mistakes? The same thing you want Tinubu to do, Buhari did the same thing more than 30 years ago. Why should it work now?!

Also, you cannot dictate how much a business should price its products or services. Additionally, the state (public sector), and most definitely various Nigerian governments, has never been efficient in running businesses. Businesses exist to earn profits, not serve the masses.

We blacks have not grown beyond the PRIMITIVE level of expecting someone else to work for us to enjoy, which is at the core of communism/socialism/progressivism that makes us fight against subsidy removal, privatisation and deregulation elements of capitalism.

Those of us who understand this need to work relentlessly to enlighten more people until we are the critical mass that drives public opinion and public policy for setting political agenda.

Since profit cannot be made without selling goods or services to the masses, it may be necessary to modify the last sentence.

Seun:
I thought they said inflation in Nigeria was caused by expensive food? Now they are saying our food is cheap? Both cannot be true, can they?

Good day mr seun. I replied your mail but I'm not sure if you saw it or maybe it landed in your spam or something.

Gerrard59:


On one hand, you want Nigeria to be a major exporter. On the other hand, you want a strong naira. Sorry, things don't work that way.



That is not true. If our businesses are becoming less competitive, why are foreign merchants coming to buy agricultural produce from Nigerian farmers? Why did they not go to Ghana? Benin Republic? Manufacturers have been able to sell their products to the West African market because these products are cheaper than previously.



Yes. Japan, South Korea and China attract tons of investments. The naira is stronger than the Won of South Korea. Is that a bad or good thing?



A weak naira is Nigeria's major option for industrialisation. How can we compete with Chinese-made goods if the naira is strong? How can our textile industries compete with Bangladesh? Nigeria is too populated to have a strong currency. Highly populous countries MUST have weak currencies for them to thrive economically. Is there any country with over a hundred million people with a currency as strong as Swiss Franc?

A factor to having a strong currency is crude oil or other relevant natural resource like copper or lithium, just like the Emiratis or Chileans, but we have OVER TWO HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE. We produce less crude for our gigantic populace.



Those into importation should change focus to exports.

Then this since I want it to be one post:


This is where I disagree with govt policies. Import levies should be scrapped on heavy equipment meant for productivity and manufacturing. Slapping high import levies on all products isn't good. Security should be improved across all boards so people can conduct their businesses safely. Those are the factors behind infrastructure cost, not necessarily a weak currency. East Asian nations used the revenues derived from the export of goods (weak currencies aided this) to develop other sectors. Hong Kong was once a hub for clothing and cheap electronics manufacturing. Today, that is not the case.

I don't know why you referenced Germany in the '30s, but the Argentina and Zimbabwe cases resulted from socialism and nationalisation. Zimbabwe also suffered from Western sanctions because Mugabe seized lands from white farmers. Apples to oranges.

Hi bro, I just saw a post on Nairaland and I remember our discussion.
It says Cadbury, Guinness, Others Lost N472bn To Naira Depreciation.
This should tell you that a falling currency is not necessarily good for industry.
Again imagine the faith of small and medium scale industries.
How do you expect them to cope. It may not be a wise idea to ask Nigerians to invest in manufacturing right now

tctrills:

Hi bro, I just saw a post on Nairaland and I remember our discussion.
It says Cadbury, Guinness, Others Lost N472bn To Naira Depreciation.
This should tell you that a falling currency is not necessarily good for industry.
Again imagine the faith of small and medium scale industries.
How do you expect them to cope. It may not be a wise idea to ask Nigerians to invest in manufacturing right now

Because they sell to Nigerians. Japanese and Korean companies which sell to residents experience the same. Those who export generate billions in profits. The solution is to reduce imports of raw materials which can be sourced from within the country. Target the export market. It is good to invest in manufacturing provided you are selling to foreigners.

Let's take cassava: invest in processing it into ethanol and export every drop of it. Labour is cheap in Nigeria. As I mentioned, the issues are logistics, security (for farmers & outgrowers) and high import levies on equipment.

Gerrard59:


Because they sell to Nigerians. Japanese and Korean companies which sell to residents experience the same. Those who export generate billions in profits. The solution is to reduce imports of raw materials which can be sourced from within the country. Target the export market. It is good to invest in manufacturing provided you are selling to foreigners.

Let's take cassava: invest in processing it into ethanol and export every drop of it. Labour is cheap in Nigeria. As I mentioned, the issues are logistics, security (for farmers & outgrowers) and high import levies on equipment.

There are only few profitable export businesses in Nigeria. In fact if you remove oil, export becomes an almost intangible percentage of our GDP. Those who import are making many times more and the data proves it.
Have you been to any of our big industrial estates from Agbara in Ogun state to Aba in Abia state. If you have, you will see the number of manufacturing firms that have either fully or partially pack up.
Manufacturing is not as easy as you make it seem.
155 textile industries have collapsed in Nigeria.
Many manufacturing firms of the 90s are no more.
Please don't let anyone fool you that manufacturing in Nigeria is doing great.
You are more likely to lose money going into manufacturing than importation.
Talking about the solution, first we need to stop lying to ourselves. Manufacturing in Nigeria is terrible. It's a risk that usually does not pay off. After we tell ourselves the truth then we can explore solutions. And I completely disagree with your solution.p

Gerrard59:


The solution is to reduce imports of raw materials which can be sourced from within the country. Target the export market. It is good to invest in manufacturing provided you are selling to foreigners.

Let's take cassava: invest in processing it into ethanol and export every drop of it. Labour is cheap in Nigeria. As I mentioned, the issues are logistics, security (for farmers & outgrowers) and high import levies on equipment.

So today, I decided to give a more detailed explanation why your suggestions don't just work.

They say insanity is when you continue doing that same thing that does not work.
You talk about reduction of importation as if it's something we have not tried out.

The military regime of Buhari ban the importation of so many products.
Then Babangida came in and introduced structural adjustment program. This also made it illegal to import certain goods.

Again, the civil rule of Buhari also ban the importation of rice.
Now let's talk about the effects of the rice ban since this is the most recent.

In a period of 8 years, the cost of a bag of rice went from 7k to almost 50k bringing untold hardship to the people.
Imagine what this did to the 105 million Nigerian living in poverty.

Again, this made smuggling to be very lucrative. We continued to see foreign rice during Buhari's gov because it was being smuggled in crazy quantities.

Then, the government spent 100s of billion in local production. Till today, the CBN's anchor borrowers program has not been able to recoup 10% of the loans it gave for rice production. Billions were stolen.

As of today, foreign rice still dominates our markets.
I remember the last governor of Ogun state had to create fake rice pyramids to justify billions spent on the investment.

It was a total disaster so why do you want us to repeat the same foolishness again?

tctrills:


There are only few profitable export businesses in Nigeria. In fact if you remove oil, export becomes an almost intangible percentage of our GDP. Those who import are making many times more and the data proves it.

I agree with the bold.

Have you been to any of our big industrial estates from Agbara in Ogun state to Aba in Abia state. If you have, you will see the number of manufacturing firms that have either fully or partially pack up.

Does this mean we should continue importation? Should we not look towards aiding manufacturing in the country?

Manufacturing is not as easy as you make it seem.
155 textile industries have collapsed in Nigeria.
Many manufacturing firms of the 90s are no more.
Please don't let anyone fool you that manufacturing in Nigeria is doing great.

Obviously, manufacturing is not easy anywhere as it costs a lot and takes a long time to break even let alone make profits. Also, the involvement of PPE makes it more difficult. This is why people target service and trade industries since they can produce profits faster.

You are more likely to lose money going into manufacturing than importation.
Talking about the solution, first we need to stop lying to ourselves. Manufacturing in Nigeria is terrible. It's a risk that usually does not pay off. After we tell ourselves the truth then we can explore solutions.

As I earlier mentioned, I listed solutions to enable manufacturing work. Another solution is to create industrial clusters in each senatorial district in every state. Let each state attract businesses that can produce based on the comparative advantage they have.

tctrills:


So today, I decided to give a more detailed explanation why your suggestions don't just work.

The military regime of Buhari ban the importation of so many products.
Then Babangida came in and introduced structural adjustment program. This also made it illegal to import certain goods.

Both men failed.

P.S. In 2015, Nigerians voted for one of them because he told them "I will phight kwarruption", and they believed.

Again, the civil rule of Buhari also ban the importation of rice.
Now let's talk about the effects of the rice ban since this is the most recent.

In a period of 8 years, the cost of a bag of rice went from 7k to almost 50k bringing untold hardship to the people.
Imagine what this did to the 105 million Nigerian living in poverty.

He did not just ban foreign rice, but closed land borders. That was the major problem. Well, he was voted to phight kwarruption.
Let's not forget how he emboldened his brothers (Fulani herdsmen) to go on the rampage destroying people's crops and slaughtering farmers across the nation.

Then, the government spent 100s of billion in local production. Till today, the CBN's anchor borrowers program has not been able to recoup 10% of the loans it gave for rice production. Billions were stolen.

Part of the reason why local production did not take off as expected was because of Buhari's brothers, who went about destroying farmlands, waylaying people, kidnapping them and butchering them. Buhari wrecked havoc.

As of today, foreign rice still dominates our markets.
I remember the last governor of Ogun state had to create fake rice pyramids to justify billions spent on the investment.

Foreign rice dominates because many people who invest in agriculture have their hands burnt because of Buhari's brothers. So, local production could not keep up. This thread exemplifies it: https://www.nairaland.com/7723312/nigerian-kidnap-gangs-drive-big-time

Buhari and his brothers did everything. People like Alore are extremely proud of their decisions and have no regrets. However, after installing the incompetent feudalist, they fled as cowards!

It was a total disaster so why do you want us to repeat the same foolishness again?

Please don't misquote me. I never advocated for the closure of borders or ban of imported goods, but the naira is good at where it is. You are the one advocating for a strong naira, but I am saying it is not possible due to low oil production vis-a-vis our population. Oil like you mentioned is our major export , but we produce too little to cater to everyone's needs in the country. The naira cannot be strong as you want. That time don pass.

Gerrard59:


Both men failed.

P.S. In 2015, Nigerians voted for one of them because he told them "I will phight kwarruption", and they believed.



He did not just ban foreign rice, but closed land borders. That was the major problem. Well, he was voted to phight kwarruption.
Let's not forget how he emboldened his brothers (Fulani herdsmen) to go on the rampage destroying people's crops and slaughtering farmers across the nation.



Part of the reason why local production did not take off as expected was because of Buhari's brothers, who went about destroying farmlands, waylaying people, kidnapping them and butchering them. Buhari wrecked havoc.



Foreign rice dominates because many people who invest in agriculture have their hands burnt because of Buhari's brothers. So, local production could not keep up. This thread exemplifies it: https://www.nairaland.com/7723312/nigerian-kidnap-gangs-drive-big-time

Buhari and his brothers did everything. People like Alore are extremely proud of their decisions and have no regrets. However, after installing the incompetent feudalist, they fled as cowards!



Please don't misquote me. I never advocated for the closure of borders or ban of imported goods, but the naira is good at where it is. You are the one advocating for a strong naira, but I am saying it is not possible due to low oil production vis-a-vis our population. Oil like you mentioned is our major export , but we produce too little to cater to everyone's needs in the country. The naira cannot be strong as you want. That time don pass.

I see you are making excuses for the failure of the very policy you are advocating for. But then, I only used rice production as an example.
In the 80s and early 90s, we did not have Fulani killings and we did not close the border yet these policies did not work. They never have.
About the oil, do you know that Nigeria is currently producing below our capacity? We produced more oil in the 90s than we are currently producing. Also we don't even produce close to half of our gas capacity. So the idea that the time of oil is gone isn't true.
We are in this position because of bad government and we need to acknowledge that, then we can move forward. And our falling currency is not a strength but a big weakness.

Gerrard59:


I agree with the bold.



Does this mean we should continue importation? Should we not look towards aiding manufacturing in the country?



Obviously, manufacturing is not easy anywhere as it costs a lot and takes a long time to break even let alone make profits. Also, the involvement of PPE makes it more difficult. This is why people target service and trade industries since they can produce profits faster.



As I earlier mentioned, I listed solutions to enable manufacturing work. Another solution is to create industrial clusters in each senatorial district in every state. Let each state attract businesses that can produce based on the comparative advantage they have.

It would be unwise to encourage manufacturing without making it easier for the manufacturers. We shouldn't just ask people to go into manufacturing without removing the obstacles that previous manufacturers have faced.
We already have industrial clusters but that is not the solution.
Start from the basics
1. Electricity
2. Good roads and other transport infrastructure
3. Security
4. Make it very easy to clear goods at your ports.
Oga, do these and the argument is over. You would see industries from China, Europe, and America begging to set up shop in Nigeria.
At present, we are a disgrace.
We should be asking, why are businesses leaving Nigeria for Ghana.
It's a big shame. But take care of just these 4 things I mentioned and you will see many of your importers going into manufacturing.

tctrills:


It would be unwise to encourage manufacturing without making it easier for the manufacturers. We shouldn't just ask people to go into manufacturing without removing the obstacles that previous manufacturers have faced.
We already have industrial clusters but that is not the solution.
Start from the basics
1. Electricity
2. Good roads and other transport infrastructure
3. Security
4. Make it very easy to clear goods at your ports.
Oga, do these and the argument is over. You would see industries from China, Europe, and America begging to set up shop in Nigeria.
At present, we are a disgrace.
We should be asking, why are businesses leaving Nigeria for Ghana.
It's a big shame. But take care of just these 4 things I mentioned and you will see many of your importers going into manufacturing.

But aren't those items I mentioned even when this thread was posted? I clearly stated that those measures should be put in place to further encourage manufacturing. But saying the currency is the obstacle is where I disagree with you.

Gerrard59:


But aren't those items I mentioned even when this thread was posted? I clearly stated that those measures should be put in place to further encourage manufacturing. But saying the currency is the obstacle is where I disagree with you.

Oga is life better now that our currency is falling? Are our companies getting more competitive now? The answer is No. We both know this so why are you finding it hard to say so.
Many manufacturing firms are reporting a loss but somehow, you don't see it as an obstacle.
This is no longer about your opinion or mine. Let's look and see how the falling currency is affecting business and the economy.
Are businesses rejoicing and celebrating the falling currency or are they counting their losses? You know the answer to this so why the argument?

tctrills:

Oga is life better now that our currency is falling?

When life was good in Nigeria, the price of oil was high, ditto production. The population was not as large as today. What we are suffering is the persistent reliance on oil as the major source of foreign exchange.

Are our companies getting more competitive now? The answer is No. We both know this so why are you finding it hard to say so.

The best way for our firms to be competitive is via a devalued currency. About the bold, how am I finding it hard to say so? I clearly agreed with you in my last post.

Many manufacturing firms are reporting a loss but somehow, you don't see it as an obstacle.

Because of over-reliance on imported materials. In 2016, during the recession, many companies had to resort to local suppliers to replace imported supplies. Unfortunately, this could not be sustained because of those factors you listed, which I agreed with you.

This is no longer about your opinion or mine. Let's look and see how the falling currency is affecting business and the economy.
Are businesses rejoicing and celebrating the falling currency or are they counting their losses? You know the answer to this so why the argument?

Businesses are being affected by falling demand and rising costs of inputs. We literally import petroleum, so our foreign reserves have dwindled over the years coupled with low production even below OPEC quotas. But how you believe a stronger currency devoid of an increase in oil price and production rather than export of non-oil products will help Nigeria is what makes me confused.

What and where exactly do you have a problem with the naira?

[quote author=Gerrard59 post=127928703]

When life was good in Nigeria, the price of oil was high, ditto production. The population was not as large as today. What we are suffering is the persistent reliance on oil as the major source of foreign exchange.

Life has never been good in Nigeria. Please which year are you talking about? But then again I disagree. We are suffering from the effect of corrupt leaders who have stolen over 500 billion dollars since independence.


The best way for our firms to be competitive is via a devalued currency. About the bold, how am I finding it hard to say so? I clearly agreed with you in my last post.
How come our firms are getting less competitive and many are packing up now that the value of the naira is falling. Clearly your statement above have been proven to be incorrect.



Because of over-reliance on imported materials. In 2016, during the recession, many companies had to resort to local suppliers to replace imported supplies. Unfortunately, this could not be sustained because of those factors you listed, which I agreed with you.
We don't suffer from an importation problem. No one would import if it's so easy to produce locally



Businesses are being affected by falling demand and rising costs of inputs. We literally import petroleum, so our foreign reserves have dwindled over the years coupled with low production even below OPEC quotas. But how you believe a stronger currency devoid of an increase in oil price and production rather than export of non-oil products will help Nigeria is what makes me confused.
You are putting words into my mouth. Please do good to quote where I said that I believe a stronger currency devoid of an increase in oil price and production rather than export of non-oil products will help Nigeria.
But still let's look at it carefully. For a country that depends on importation, a stronger currency would be of more good that a weaker currency

What and where exactly do you have a problem with the naira?
Your falling currency is creating millions of poor people overnight. Nigeria is minting out poverty. Prices have become so expensive and the cost of living is unbearable. This again is making businesses and companies uncompetitive. Many companies especially those into manufacturing ran at a loss in 2023. The consumer market is shrinking. So far, all the advantages you talk about are only on paper. Nigerians are suffering from the fall of the Naira.