likila:
Once your parents are Nigerians, you are a natural born citizen.
Just read the constitution.

Is that why he deliberately misled INEC officials about the exact circumstances surrounding his birth?

Mynd44:
Does anyone think at some point, this will become an overkill?

No.

It will be a road kill.

A reminder that there are consequences when you venture into the unknown

This is serious

Oga Saraki is in big trouble

This is a nail on his coffin

Tinubu you are wicked


Lalasticlala do justice

I heard you a deeper lifer and u have a child. Is this the sort of Christianity you practice?

dearpreye:


Bro, let's watch and see! This house is gradually falling apart!

You are so full of yourself.

MizMyColi:
Good thing he took my advice.

Another APC propaganda

Lalasticlala seun ishilove front page pls

Nice one

Lalasticlala fp

GEJ till 2019

Fani Kayode and his mouth, Chai

Lalasticlala

Interesting...
lalasticlala, seun, obinoscopy, front page

PVC collection nationwide

Lalasticlala frontpage

lalasticlala, seun, obinoscopy, ishilove

If uncollected PVCs in Lagos can make fp, how come the collected PVCs nationally have not made FP?

Very underwhelming.....

It is not by attire but by performance.

Wearing Military uniform and traditional attires does not provide food and development for Nigerians

APC is a confused party
Lalasticlala front page

Lalasticlala

When will this get to the fp? INEC is performing, let Nairalanders know

nationwide1:
Can some people now see why postponement was a good idea?

Thank you.

Lalasticlala, obinoscopy, oam4j, ishilove. Oya front page biko

Lalasticlala can you put this on FP. The source is not from Facebook but a newspaper

That is not a coup. It is postponement

A civilian government is still in place in Nigeria

endorsement by a foreign newspaper does not matter

Djicemob:
Sharia reporters looking for consolation propaganda

this is not correct, PM news have also reported it

http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2015/02/05/dont-vote-for-jonathan-soyinka-lists-reasons/

Why has he changed his mind?

A few days ago, a thread made the front page of Nairaland where it was stated that the US thinktank predicted that Goodluck Jonathan the incumbent president will win the 2015 Presidential elections.

However, the author of the report has now publicly stated that the report posted on Nairaland FP is erroneous and does not take into account the final outcomes of the report findings

Excerpts below:

My technical report for the Brookings Institution’s Africa Foresight publication on the 2015 presidential election entitled ‘The 2015 Elections in Nigeria: Issues and Challenges’, has become an issue between the PDP and the APC. As should be expected in an election year, one side wants to make a political capital out of the report, the other will not allow it to enjoy any political mileage from it. Supporters of President Jonathan had this screaming headline go viral on the internet: “US top think-tank, Brookings, projects Jonathan win; say APC is a fragile anti-Jonathan setup”.

For supporters of President Jonathan, Brookings Institution, regarded as the number one think-tank in the world, has predicted victory for Jonathan in the forthcoming presidential election.


APC supporters on the other hand derided the report as a mere “op-ed written by one Jideofor Adibe, who is a Senior Lecturer in Nasarawa State University”. They also concocted a headline, meant to be a counter narrative to the one abstracted out of context by supporters of PDP and also went viral with it on the internet. The APC’s own was: “US Top Think-tank, Brookings, disclaims controversial report predicting victory for Jonathan”.



Let me quote the portion of the report which has been doctored to suggest that Brookings predicted a Jonathan win:

“The APC gets much of its strength from tapping into anti-Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments.

“Allegations of corruption against top PDP officials will be powerful ammunition in the hands of the APC, especially with the choice of Buhari, widely seen as not corrupt, as the party’s presidential candidate.

“The party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power ‘returned’ to the north. Though the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still favour President Jonathan.”

It may be germane to make a few clarifications about the report by Brookings’ Africa Foresight.

Between 2013 and 2014 I was involved in a year-long research project by Brookings’ Africa Growth Initiative (AGI) on the impact of conflict on agriculture in Nigeria and Mali. For the Nigerian arm of the project, I provided the research on the conflicts in Nigeria, focusing on the conflicts purveyed by Boko Haram and Ansaru. My three-part articles on the emergence, trajectories and the way forward for the Boko Haram conflict which were excerpted from the research and published on Brookings’ blog (website), were exceedingly well received. In fact the first of the three instalments - ‘The Emergence of Boko Haram’ - holds the record of the highest read of all times on the AGI’s blog (website).

In September 2014 I was invited by Brookings’ AGI to do a brief technical report for its Africa Foresight publication on the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. Since 2011 AGI has used its Africa Foresight publication to examine the trends, events, and other important factors that it believes will shape affairs in Sub-Saharan Africa throughout the year. For Nigeria, it felt the presidential election would be that decisive event.

The report was approved after several peer reviews on November 17 – before Buhari emerged as APC’s presidential candidate – and updated to take cognizance of this fact before it was published online on 29 January 2014 (the print version was published a few days later).

Essentially the piece was concluded before the re-invention of Buhari and the APC’s post-convention bounce which the party currently enjoys. The thrust of the report was not to predict who would win the 2015 presidential election but to analyse the dynamics that would shape the elections, the challenges that would likely be encountered and how these could be surmounted.


I have had to update the information in that report in recent interviews with the French news agency AFP and the American channels Bloomberg and CNBC Africa – among others. One of the issues that were not foreseen in the Africa Foresight report is the convergence of the normal post-convention bounce a party enjoys after its convention and the re-invention of Buhari – in the manner he speaks, his dress codes and even his general demeanour. These twin events are working to change the perceptions of Buhari among many Christians and people in the south as a northern irredentist or Muslim fanatic, making him look really electable.

[b]As of today, I believe that Buhari will do better in both the north and south than he did in 2011 while Jonathan will do worse in both the north and south than he did in 2011. The decisive issue however will be the level of Buhari’s over-performance and Jonathan’s underperformance. Here money, the way the PDP uses the power of incumbency and APC’s counter strategies, including its mobilisation and media strategies, will play key roles. My personal opinion is that in areas where the voters are sufficiently animated by a cause they believe in (such as among Buhari’s supporters in the Muslim north), the role of money or the power of incumbency in influencing the outcome, will be mute. However in areas where the elections are expected to be very tightly fought (such as in the battleground south west) or where the fear factor can be very easily played up (such as in the southeast, south- south and among Christians), the role of money (‘stomach infrastructure’), will be crucial. Here I believe the PDP enjoys a slight advantage and it is for this reason that I believe that if the elections were held today, the odds would still marginally favour the PDP despite the fact that the momentum is clearly with the APC.[/b]

By Dr Jideofor Adibe

Full report available below:

Source: http://saharareporters.com/2015/01/23/did-brookings-really-predict-jonathan-win-jideofor-adibe

I have noticed that not one person has questioned the analysis in the first post, all I see are reactionary statements. These statements do not counter the scientific based projections outlined in the OP

I stand by the projections based on the outcome of a robust research in the SE

Watch out for Part 2...

I have been watching the election campaigns from all party candidates very closely and I have come to the following conclusions using a mix of both qualitative/quantitative research i.e. observations from newspapers, TV stations, interviews carried out and feedback from selected sections of the electorate.

There are going to be over 10 presidential candidates but I think we can all agree that only 2 candidates have a good chance of winning the election; Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari (APC). This particular study relates to just the[b] South East of Nigeria[/b].

1. Imo State

The PDP has a strong base in Imo state and naturally, it will be expected that the party will inevitably win the election, however the present governor- Owelle Rochas Okorocha has proved to be a strong political leader that is well loved and respected across the whole state. A year ago, the PDP would have won the elections with a landslide victory but the Okorocha effect has totally affected that permutation.

Going by the popularity of Okorocha and his performance as governor in the state and also the fact that indigenes would want to ensure that they benefit significantly from the Federal government if the APC wins, the opposition party will win by a small margin

Projections: APC (52%): PDP (48%)

2. Enugu State

This state is controlled by the PDP and the outgoing governor Barrister Sullivan Chime is arguably one of the best performing governors in Nigeria. He has transformed Enugu state in all major sectors from education, industry, and the civil service. He embarked on daring infrastructural developments which as made Enugu one of the most vibrant and beautiful cities in the country. The state recently got recognition from the Guardian newspaper (UK) - where they predicted that it will be Nigeria's flagship city.

Source: http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/adam-smith-international-partner-zone/2015/jan/09/urbanisation-nigeria-rises-to-the-challenge

However, things have not been smooth for Barrister Chime, despite his achievements, he has faced interference in his government from the central PDP unit in Abuja under the command of Dr Jonathan. This reached an unbelievable level when his efforts to become a senator was recently truncated by Abuja. He is not happy and close sources indicate that he will not work for Jonathan's re-election.

Another major factor in enugu and indeed all of Ndigbo is RF Mbaka, his New year message where he lambasted the current administration has spread like wild fire and his message is resonating with the masses.

Based on these factors, it is predicted that the APC will win marginally

Projections: APC (51%) PDP (49%)



3. Anambra State

The case of Anambra is the most surprising of all SE states. Anambrians are noted for their intelligence, insularity and Igbo nationalistic idealism, they remain the only state who retain APGA as the state party. They recently voted in Governor Obiano, a man that has proved to be quite pragmatic and forward thinking. When he came on board, many Igbos thought he could champion Igbo nationalism but he has proved to be very smart and intelligent. Last week, he openly declared that Igbos are better in one Nigeria.

Sources from Anambra government say that Obiano is not supporting either candidates and will work with whoever wins. In the past, one would have expected Obiano to tow the line of his successor and openly support GEJ but he has decided to be neutral.

From a survey conducted in Anambra state, we call it evens

Projections: APC(50%) PDP (50%)

@ OP, your IP address and email address has been noted and passed to the relevant authorities. You will be taken for questioning very soon and you will explain where those documents came from.

You think you can make fake documents and get away with it? you will learn the hard way

ChinemeOkpan:


Le Sigh

I am still waiting for the evidence that it is possible to a joint masters dissertation

I know your type, failed in every endeavor in life and utilize the internet as a succor and a cover for their insecurities. Claiming everything under the sun, your father was arrested in a hotel in Ibadan in the company of politicians tell us another story

Btw what is the story behind your moniker? I can smell deportees from afar And after a cursory investigation, I was right as usual

I have not created any thread on NL, but you incessantly start threads to worship GEJ, who is the political tout here? Bow down to people greater than you

Go and get your PVC so that your children dont make the same mistake you have made in life.

Lmao... this is too brutal

You guys should take it easy abeg

lyntiffany:
my dear according to what I learnt from social studies back then in primary and sec sch I was taught that family is the smallest fraction or unit in the society.What am i gearing at? am saying that if we really need to curb this menace that is eating this society it begins with you and I.
That America is successful today is because people report inappropriate movement , atrocious behaviour and any evil they perceive around them whether your family, relation or friend they believe in Justice but down here is quite different.
we can conceal the crime of an uncle, a brother, aunt mother , father or a friend as long as we see them as our own .As for me charity they say begins at home.We want to fight corruption, it has to start with us.

You have some points but can we blame GEJ for the corruption in Nigeria?

Corruption is a problem with Nigeria from our fathers time. He cant solve it in just 6 years.He needs more time

anonimi:


How can people say Buhari is anti-corruption when he has Tinubu, Atiku, Saraki, Amaechi, Nyako, Gemade, Akume etc around him
Let us not forget that pope Buhari canonised saint Abacha proclaiming he did not steal our money

good point

Dewze:


Have you eradicated corruption in yourself?

Thank you. that is why i think some Nigerians are not truthful with themselves.

Jonathan can not solve corruption if Nigerians are very corrupt

owobokiri:


I am voting for him but that is simply because I am not comfortable with a Mujahedin. . You want to know how he encoursges it? How many state governors have been challenged by Jonathan over corrupt practices since he came into office? This inspite of the mind blowing corrupt practices going on in almost every state capital. Do you still hear of EFCC? That organisation has been defanged. How about the pension fund man? Why is interpol not on that guys case? Alams? He even allows opposition party looters to go scot free. Atleast obasanjo fought his enemies who are corrupt. But with Jonathan, its kumbaya, come let's merry. Both for friends and enemies. Jonathan must have been raised in a very corrupt environment

your post is funny, why would you vote for him if you think or know he is corrupt? is that not a way of encouraging corruption?

theChiefPriest:
What is there to misunderstand about somebody as crudely simplistic as GEJ?
He is corrupt; he embodies corruption; and he promotes corruption.

Review what the drunk said said about Jim Nwobodo in the Enugu rally. Jonathan encourages corruption and he's unequivocal about his stands. Simple.

He needs to be icked out before he destroys our moral fabrics and national values.

I said he is being misunderstood because he is not very good at expressing himself sometimes. I dont think he meant that Jim Nwobodo was not corrupt but putting everyone in kirikiri is not the answer