₦airaland Forum

Okpebholo1:
For the first time, ever southern kaduna will vote APC

Maybe. But politically, the hype about Southern Kaduna is far-fetched. Southern Kaduna voted Obi (LP) in 2023 and came third. The Northern votes were split between APC (muslim-muslim factor) and PDP (Atiku factor). You can check the numbers and draw your analysis. Elrufai ran on muslim-muslim ticket twice (for himself and Uba Sani) and despite the noise, he still won.

I hope APC is not looking to replace Northern Kaduna for Southern Kaduna. That would be a wrong strategy because with the potential merger/coalition, Northern APC Kaduna (Elrufai's factor) will simply align with the very strong Atiku PDP factor in the state. To understand what that would mean, simply add majority of PDP's votes with majority of APC's votes in 2023.

Lol. Paid hacks have to justify their pay.

Another lamba for the Lukumi people to lap up. Following his non-confirmation, Elrufai already went back to the University of Maastricht in the Netherlands to conclude his PhD in Public Policy and Governance. Elrufai is now a Doctor. Man is a book-worm and a brainbox.

Video proof below of his interview before the inauguration of Tinubu, where he reiterated his desire to go on rest and acquire a PhD.

Throwback to this Mallam Nasir El-Rufai interview shortly after leaving office where he stated that he does not want to be minister, but Tinubu insists that he join his cabinet.

He had no idea that everything was a set up to humiliate him. pic.twitter.com/79HDFjAHST

— Mal. Imran U. Wakili (PULLO) 👑 #iSTANDWITHELRUFAI (@IU_Wakilii) February 9, 2025

/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1888681239382573362&currentTweetUser=IU_Wakilii

EmperorCaesar:
Useless claims from a useless person

He should be sued for defamation and asked to provide proofs

He waited till after 70000years to make such a bogus and hard-to-verify claim

Shame on the clown with a pig skin

Go ahead and sue him if you dare. He named names, places and times, including the revelation that the government had to cajole Joe Biden to give the President a shoutout. We all saw Biden's post on twitter which seemed to have come from nowhere.

What a revelation! Now the purported security report that denied Elrufai ministerial clearance is beginning to make sense. Someone was apparently clearing the coast for themselves by eliminating all perceived future opponents from the power equation. It is unfortunate that the President allowed this to happen without interceding. In this case, silence is consent and was not golden at all.

It would have been far more strategic for the master strategist to have maintained neutrality till at least, after his re-election, even if he had a favourite and preferred candidate. That was what Buhari did. Except, perhaps the President himself had an axe to grind.

LegendHero:
Lol you don’t understand the North and how they conduct elections. Political heavyweight matters in northern election and the North is not a monolith.

Think about it. How many political heavyweight was with Tinubu before and not with him anymore in the North? Aside El-Rufai, who lost Kaduna in all election except governorship, who else left Jagaban fold?

But daily we hear new entrants into APC even from Southern Kaduna of all places.

Hear this, Northern bloc are preparing for 2031. Even El-Rufai tears is all about 2031 because his other Northerners already cut his wings. He is a political orphan now.

We hear more than this noise in 2023, oh Tinubu will
lose in the North. Northerners go stone am, them dey tear his campaign poster, burn APC broom. Oh Atiku will do this and that; eventually on Election Day, Jagaban still got more vote in the NW than Atiku. Na online una noise end.

You are the one who doesn't understand the politics of the North. I ask again, who are these northern elites that you claim are behind Tinubu and where were they during the tax reform Bill. The northern elders, governors and religious leaders came out clearly to tell the President that they were not in support of the bill until certain clauses were adjusted to their demands. Why couldn't the elites save Tinubu then?

Why should the North be obligated to have Tinubu continue till 2031 when they can either have a Northerner like Atiku succeed him now. Heads or tails, power will still return to the North, whether in 2027 or 2031. So, what's the motivation to wait for Tinubu to handover to his annointed successor? They have the numbers to take it now. Mind you, Elrufai is basically the last of the CPC bloc in the APC and he's being systematically chased out of the party. This is after Amaechi and Co of the new PDP bloc have been schemed out already. APC of today is just Lagos branch of the ACN with a few yes men from the North and some old PDP members ( Aregbesola, Fayemi, Amosun, Lai Mohammed, and other non-Lagos ACN all schemed out).

LegendHero:
Political neophytes like Babachir Lawal, who was loudly proclaiming throughout the 2023 election campaign that he would prevent Tinubu from becoming president. Even El-Rufai the midget would be laughing Babachir Lawal.

Tinubu's allies in the North are loyal to the core. El-Rufai lacks the network to turn them against Tinubu, which is why no northern political figure has joined him in his Twitter rants.

Who will betray Tinubu for disloyal Elrufai?

Politics for the elites, as practiced by Tinubu cannot save him in 2027. If you can feel the pulse of the North right now, you would know that Tinubu is not getting anything close to his 2023 numbers in the North. Where were those loyal elites to speak in Tinubu’s favour during the tax bill? Little wonder the directors and board members of the new development commissions are packed with sons and daughters of those "loyal elites".

Besides, who really are those northern elites behind Tinubu? Ganduje and co? Remember, people like Elrufai had to go against those elites to back Tinubu in 2023. Right now, Tinubu has only succeeded in convincing most northerners that the northern elders were right to have been wary of him and the concept of Amana (trust) that rallied northerners together for him has been broken by Tinubu himself.

EmperorCaesar:
Which U-turn

The two statements are one and same

That one dey bring picture of 2024, while Reno's offer was for 2025

Lol. You guys are becoming pathetic. Taking dressings from Reno Omokri. Then after he does, it will be "Not Washington DC, visit California instead". Elrufai was invited by the Council on Foreign Relations to Washington DC barely 4 months ago as a headliner to deliver a lecture on leadership. We were told by the Binance guy that your favourite had to make Joe Biden giving him a shoutout a conditionality to secure his release. There are levels to this thing. You can't copy respect!

Lol. I know they say Tinubu is a Master Strategist but from a practical point of view, I'm struggling to understand what APC thinks they stand to gain from incorporating the likes of Reno and Bwala into its fold. You ostracise political juggernauts like Elrufai who worked so hard for the party in favour of lightweights who have no base and can't even deliver their nuclear families.

From a strategic point of view, Reno and Bwala's messages are not resonating with anyone. Their messages can not convince any new voter in the North, neither is it winning over any obidient. The optics is also generally bad for the APC. Having such disloyal and fickle-minded individuals in the party lends credence to the grievance of some that the party has strayed from its original ideals. Their messages can also be easily neutralized by a simple screenshot of their previous posts about the President and the party. Take a look at the comments under Reno's posts on his handles and all you see supporting him are individuals from the Southwest only. These people would have still voted Tinubu, regardless of what he does.

So I ask again, what is the net gain of bringing them onboard? Is it that Tinubu could not afford to have them openly insulting him on social media? He already survived them in 2023. What more could they have done? Buhari paid no mind to their likes and he completed his two tenures. Rather, bringing them aboard have costed APC some loyal voters.

Gotocourt:
Elrufai is a finished man

SOS by Muric dead on arrival

Doesn't look so to me. Your brothers are begging him and his son on twitter.

deji17:
Travel restrictions: Is this why NASS could not clear El Rufai, citing security reports / reasons?

You wish. This was Elrufai in Washington DC barely 6 months ago. September 12, 2024. If Reno Omokri is now the defacto spokesperson of the APC, it says a lot about the party.

APC Southwest is getting jittery with the alleged news of Adesina contesting because they know his ticket will significantly prune down whatever votes Tinubu might be looking to garner from the Southwest. Expect more of these jabs from both official and unofficial paid hacks. Adesina in the race with a sellable Northerner will be a gamechanger!

This is still the lived realities of Southern Kaduna on a daily basis but the media will rather suppress the news since it's now politically expedient to do so. Instead of looking for a holistic solution to curb this age long menace that has persisted for decades, they chose to blame Elrufai. Now, Elrufai is no longer in power so news like this will rather get overlooked just to offer some people political capital. Same thing is happening in Benue till date. At the end, the people are just pawns on the chess board.

Meanwhile, the governor is busy negotiating with terrorist just to secure temporary peace. The equivalence of putting bandaid over a bullet wound.

ChiefOkporghe:
Please, can you quote the part of the OP that says what you claim here in bold?

Read the headline. Bottom line is that neither Tinubu nor Uba Sani built a University for Southern Kaduna. They simply approved the renaming of a University that an indigene of Southern Kaduna built with stolen money. So why all the media propaganda and photoshoots? In reality, what concrete project has either Tinubu or Uba Sani done for Southern Kaduna? Propaganda is not enough.

otipoju:
Who built the original Nok University

The APC is being clever by half. A Southern Kaduna ex-Civil Servant embezzled money and built a private university, hotel and hostel. The EFCC made him forfeit the assets and the government is now claiming to have given Southern Kaduna a university, amid so much fanfare and deceit. Who is deceiving who?

Shattuck:
seems you are on el rufai's payroll, strange all your contribution is about el rufai.

I am a big fan and student of his school of leadership and unapologetically so. He alone made me mobilise and vote for Tinubu in 2023 and to see the same people he worked for trying to rewrite history and make him the villain rubs me off the wrong way. I assure you, he doesn't know me nor have we ever met. There are millions like me, I assure you. You seem to underestimate the amount of supporters that the President lost with the shabby treatment of Elrufai. Most are only quiet for now.

The Northern politicians Tinubu has surrounded himself with are not inspiring and can barely mobilise northern voters to queue again behind the ticket in 2027. They simply lack the charisma. This was what HRH Sanusi Lamido Sanusi was trying to tell the President recently but he was met with insults. Whether you admit or not, losing Elrufai will turn out to be a strategic mistake.

Just a few words from Elrufai and the whole polity is already in turmoil. Whoever says he's irrelevant is just lieing to himself. The master strategist should have learned to keep friends close and "enemies" even closer, that is if he considered Elrufai an enemy. Elrufai posed no direct threat to Tinubu before now, not until he was embarrassed and continuously hounded. He only posed a threat to fellow Northern APC politicians who are scheming for 2031. The President should have remained neutral and not pick a side, just as Buhari did. Elrufai deserved that. At this point, he has nothing to lose.

Putindbutt:
It is not only about the north, every region now has a development commission. If you like, pocket all the funds and neglect the development of your region, that's your own problem. I can see that the suffering of Elrufai is affecting your reasoning.

So appointing cronies into these Regional Commissions will guarantee development? The Commissions are already being set up to fail and it's all on the President. So much for, "Tinubu has the ability of identifying talents"...Clearly we were lied to. All we see is nepotism for Southern appointments and cronyism for Northern appointments.

The President is not really gauging the pulse of the North and, indeed, of the nation. Does he think catering only to the interests of the elites to the detriment of the masses will guarantee him votes? This may work in Lagos, but it's not the same nationwide. There really is nothing inspiring about this government.

Akpakomiza2:
As it stands, Tinubu will win the Christian north and middle belt. Core north will still be divided. El rufai is not relevant electorally

Okay o. What about the South? Will he win the South?

EmperorCaesar:


I thought El-Rufai said he's moved on

Thought he said he was pointblank told PBAT he wasnt interested in a Ministerial post

So why this obsession and childish antics

Svoboda, I agree he helped Tinubu into power, but at this rate, if any Tinubu loyalist attacks Mallam, then he shouldnt be called a betrayer or whatever

He's now playing it the mud and whatever attack he gets is justifiable

“Unless betrayed, our loyalty and fidelity to friends are permanent and pensionable. Unless reconciled, our opposition and enmity to traitors are also permanent and pensionable” - Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai

If you really know Elrufai, you would know he's a very dependable ally but a very formidable foe. He does not just move on. Na you go tire. It was not about the rejection at the Senate. It's about the way and manner it was done and the grand plan to erase his legacy. He won't take it lying down.

Akpakomiza2:
Atiku can only win the core north narrowly

Who would he narrowly win it to? Tinubu? Muslim-Muslim ticket will offer the President no political advantage in 2027, and it might even be a liability for him amongst the Northern Christians who would prefer he drops Shettima and pick a Christian. PDP is still very strong amongst the Christian North and they have no misgivings voting Atiku having voted him twice before in the past against Buhari.

Tinubu is getting more unpopular amongst the muslim North as the days go by. The fact that the opposition that APC seems to be facing for now is in-house through the likes of Elrufai, should make them very jittery. Obi and Atiku have not even entered the 2027 conservation yet. The state of the economy will also be a factor and Tinubu might end up getting less votes generally than he got the last time.

EmperorCaesar:
Aminda..Guess this was cooked up in the SW media too

Lol. If the President's strategy is to replace Northern Kaduna votes or better yet, Northern Muslim votes with Southern Kaduna or Northern Christian votes, then he has already lost the election. In 2023, Northern muslims splitted their votes between Tinubu (a southerner) and Atiku (a Northerner and a collusus in his own right). The Northern Christians and indeed, Southern Kaduna largely voted Obi in protest of the Muslim-Muslim ticket. Traditionally, Southern Kaduna have always voted PDP, they have never voted APC before now.

The President is fast loosing his Northern Muslim base and if these numbers are added to Atiku's, then the President will lose even if he gets Southern Kaduna votes (which as at today, is still not guaranteed). He should have found a way to keep his Northern base while still wooing the Northern Christian minorities. He hasn't done that. Right now, he's just replacing one for the other which is a strategic mistake.

Below are the numbers for Kaduna and how the two regions in the country voted. Like it or not, the North delivered Tinubu in 2023 because he lost Lagos and Osun in his region and generally didn't win the South. You can do the maths.

bdon123:
Yes becos he was a governor.Any Governor of kaduna n kano is usually a heavy weight in d north becos kaduna n kano hav d highest voter base in d north.
Now that he d incubent governor is fighting to hav is own weight by alignment wit presidency Rufai is zero in d north.Wike has more control of north than rufai

Says another Yoruba ronu typing from his enclave in Iragbiji? Have you ever been to any state in the North, let alone Kaduna? Your kind are the ones leading the APC into oblivion.

bewisemasses:
El Rufai is a political adversary u never want to have.
It was part of d reason Tinubu picked him and Wike as part of his team.
Its going to be a long drama till 2027.
The chicken has indeed come home to roost

“Unless betrayed, our loyalty and fidelity to friends are permanent and pensionable. Unless reconciled, our opposition and enmity to traitors are also permanent and pensionable” - Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai

Little wonder individuals like Bwala and Reno Omokri have been pacified and co-opted into the government as spokespersons for a fee. If David Hundeyin is available for a fee, he will be bought as well. Does someone have a fragile ego behind all the outward bragadacio? Shouldn't a clear conscience fear no accusation? Why are they scared and aggressively chasing validation?

Edoreborn:
This man really try for that ingrate president,,i was in Kaduna when this man and mattawale stood their ground against fraudulent naira notes which wàs targeted against tinubu's presidential bid.. u see life?

To some Yorubas, it's smartness. To Northerners, it's a betrayal of trust.

Comment sections on social media are rife with Southwesterners now insulting Elrufai and trying to rewrite history. Yorubas are never beating the allegations. Tinubu has only succeeded in showing the North that he cannot be trusted and his words are not bankable. Never write Elrufai off. His comeback will be epic!

APC's 2027 campaign in the North will lack momentum and will be lacklustre. The Northerners Tinubu has surrounded himself with will barely deliver.

P.S: The headline is sensational and incomplete. Even the blind knew Elrufai supported Tinubu in 2023 but he WILL oppose him in 2027 and justifiably so. He has the support and blessings of young Northerners to do so. Some of us only voted Tinubu in 2023 because of Elrufai.

zero8zero:
Can you now see that you're inconsequential. Every bill is subject to a debate, the Governors have suggested a sharing formula for VAT, the people will still suggest theirs at public hearing. The Senate would have a final debate on it and then pass into law what they deem fit. For now, the budget is what bill before the Senate. After passing the budget this month, the next assignment is the tax bill. dey calm down, try to dey learn.

Lol. The below images are not my handwriting sha. They are those of an overzealous batist. The same lamentations will worsen leading up to 2027. You'll be here screaming "Tinubu is not Jonathan" until it all becomes clear.

Notice the timelines and the movement from arrogance to frustration and then to resignation and defeat.

zero8zero:
I hope you can read?, open the links below and read them. Dey Nairaland dey whine yourself.

https://www.nairaland.com/8311194/there-no-need-withdraw-tax

https://www.nairaland.com/8284596/tinubus-tax-reform-bills-not

https://www.nairaland.com/8283385/ohanaeze-joins-southwest-south-south-northcentral

https://www.nairaland.com/8319210/governors-endorses-tax-reforms-bill

Lol. You mean after the governors have had their way by changing the sharing formula and suspending increase in VAT? I thought the slogan is "Tinubu is not Jonathan"? Why then did he fold? By the way, where is the tax bill and why hasn't it been passed? Where is Taiwo? Democracy is by consensus, not arrogance.

P.S: Personally, I support the tax bill.

Is seems we have not seen the end of Obasa's removal. This sponsored story is simply someone invoking plausible deniability with the hope of continuing to enjoy Obasa's support. It might not work this time.

Next to be schemed out of the race will be Gbajabiamilla. The signs are already there for the discerning. The coast is getting cleared for someone to have a smooth sail.

Odin13:
Dem no dey hide pregnancy

Arewa will chop Tinubu money and look right with hi amateur politicians

Never knew his closest friend in Northwest is fighting him already
I mean Wammako of Sokoto state ..

Then he’s loosing all already…. Na. Masari he dey hope on to align the north?

Hia attack on elrufai was the beginning of his down fall in North.
Am from southern kaduna and I can guarantee that Tinubu won’t be getting any vote from here .. if he wan dance anyhow .. e means nothing

Kano is already locked out .. now kastina and sokoto . With kebbi and zamfara .. going PDP already

Don’t know how Tinubu wan do this . .. in north central.. but I know east and west of Arewa are so so out of reach .. plus his rigging and billion dollars ..

We can’t afford to keep Tinubu for another 4 years in office

Walahi .is haram to Arewa and every sane Nigerian

Southern Nigeria is ready
East I believe is ready

Let the west carry their cross it they feel so..

No sentiment

The tribalism and foolishness of this regime is nauseating

It's so hilarious whenever I see comments saying Tinubu will win Southern Kaduna. Ask them how and they say because he approved a university for them. I look at the names of those saying this and its usually people from the Southwest. Is Southern Kaduna aware that they are voting Tinubu in 2027 or are they merely relying on propaganda?

They also delude themselves by saying that Tinubu will win the votes of Northern Christians. To do that, he will have to drop Shettima and consider running with a Christian VP but even that may not guarantee anything. Even the APC governors in the North will struggle to get re-elected as things stand right now.