johndoe200:

As usual with NL a lot of rubbish is spoken. All Governors and the President can appoint ALL their political appointees as delegates to the convention. Do you know how many people GEJ has appointed?

Most of what is posted on this thread is just wishfull thinking. I do understand that it makes you feel good but I assure you the calculations have already been done.

WRONG

I hope the "calculations" were not made using your methods.

panalyst:

Sorry Sir, but i think you might be the one speaking rubbish here. The rules have changed. While it was common for OBJ to recall all ambassadors and have his numerous aides vote on the convention ground, the rules for this PDP convention only allow ELECTED appointees to be delegates. Unless you are elected by the people in whatever capacity, thats the only way you can be a delegate. So aides, ministers etc are not going to be able to vote in this convention.

RIGHT

9ijaMan:

I guess you wanted to say realistically "rig" to win an election. I agree to some extent, however, I'm secretly praying for PDP to lose the elections. They'll become (hopefully) a very big and strong opposition which will at least checkmate whichever other party we may have in power.

rig, win, what's the difference in this country??

Abagworo:

Iro!Olo daa!

PDP must be removed in 2011 by all progressive Nigerians.My advice has been for Jonathan to de-camp for his own good.Rigging will not succeed in the SW and North.

you think the pdp are the only party involved in rigging? i bet you think that all other non-pdp governors, senators, etc are clean and straight. trust me they are ALL the same.

http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art20101027113953

doublekay:

Let us not forget pdp is not the only party in nigeria, joe can always migrate

he could, but realistically the PDP are the only party able to win a presidential election in this country. that is why all the political heavy weights are fighting so hard for the pdp ticket.

McKren:

Believe it or not, not a lot will happen to OBJ. Not even Atiku will do jack to OBJ, IBB won't even try.

All this is all about is insatiable quest for power and pure greed. What some describe as the failures and imperfection of mortals. Nothing else.

The trouble is in the Nigerian context it is being done excess even at the risk of destroying the Nation itself.

of course they wont actually lock him up but he will become politically irelevent and nothing scares the old baboon more. he enjoys his unlimited access to aso rock and spouting his nonsense to the press literally on it's door step. it will kill him when he eventually has to return to ota.

you are right about everything else though.

McKren:

Jonathan simply does not have the maths under a free for all contest.

He should protect the intrest of the Ijaw Nation and the South South by stepping down now and endorsing zoning.

With these numbers no Ijaw man will emerge President in the next 100years in a free for all contest.

But under the PDP zoning and power sharing the South South has produced President, Vice President, CDS, CAS, IG of Police, Deputy Speaker, Foreign Minister, Petroleum Minister, Justices to the Supreme Court. etc.

Jonathan should not betray the interest of ethnic minorities in Nigeria because of his winner takes it all attitudes.

He should consider his ambition carefully. A word is enough for the wise.
Because based on the numbers Atiku is headed for a landslide and this is the simple reason the only card left for the Jonathan/Sambo team is to keep attacking the concensus arrangement and hope that it fails.

he should but he's been bullied into this by obj who is petrified about what will happen to him when the north take over.

DapoBear:

^-- Do you really think the only way someone can be bribed is the ham-fisted way Bakare and SNG were? There are more subtle ways of doing it that can less easily be traced and can be denied if the target runs to the newspapers.

of course there are. i just don't think GEJ and his team are capable of such shrewd thought, as they have bungled everything up to now. i mean, they tried to bride a pastor who had already declared his support for another candidate with foreign currency - do you really think they have slight of hand??

DapoBear:

Hrm, I would imagine that PDP delegates would be a bit more discreet than Bakare. Plus there are other ways to bribe people than throwing them cash.

And no, I don't think it would be difficult to steal money as the President of Nigeria.

With that said, if GEJ cannot defeat Atiku in the primary with all of the advantages he has, then he isn't fit to be president anyway, imo.

but that is where you are wrong. GEJ doesn't know his friends from his enemies at the moment. how does he know that the delegate he is trying to bribe are loyal to him? how does he know the guy isn't just going to run straight to the press a la bakare? and that's his predicament - the people he really needs to bribe are the people most likely to spill the beans.

excanny:

OP, Where's your source for the number of delegates?

it's common knowledge within the party but here is a link:

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2010/09/100978/

DapoBear:

GEJ has the entire revenue of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to use to bribe, if he must. He has the property of Nigeria (oil blocks, planes, homes, lands) he can bribe with. There is no way Atiku or any combination of his friends can beat GEJ if it comes down to bribing.

GEJ couldn't get away with bribing one little old pastor with USD50k without the whole world hearing about it. it is actually much harder to "steal" directly from government funds today than it was in the past under military regimes. in the good old days the military boys could literally print cash from the national mint. and guess what, most of those guys were northern and we all know where their loyalties lie.

MShittu:

The GDPs of Northen states are very often much lower than those of southern ones. Economic activity is also much more concentrated in the south than it is up North.

i'm not talking about state wealth i'm talking about the wealth of individuals (ie business men and politicians).

MShittu:

Highly doubt that,

oh you do? well i would have a quick rethink if i were you

DapoBear:

I highly doubt Atiku that has more cash available to him than GEJ does.

but atiku/ibb/adenuga/etc do, remember this is not just atiku, this is the whole north and i guarantee you that the north has more money than the south.

Blazay:

Intellectual Hobbit

very funny

AjanleKoko:

But the OP's argument is not ludicrous. It actually has some degree of logic in it.

In fact, I would ask how is it that the Northern zones have that many delegates. I guess it must be their 19 states. On the face of it, Jonathan might have a hard time, if he doesn't buy over at least a third of the 19 Northern governors It's almost certain that the opposition ACN will try to split the SW votes.

but that's his problem; he can't pay of anyone because it's a secret ballot, people will just take the money and vote for atiku regardless.

he's playing in the big league now and swimming with the sharks,

Ma_J_Blige:

may you be alive so you can eat your own words.

good contribution missy. very thoughtful and erudite.

there are reasons why gej will never win the pdp primaries, talk less of the election proper. here they are:

northerners account for 50% of this country's population. how accurate these figures are is not for me to judge but those are the "official" government figures and in elections it's the "official" figure that counts. for all their perceived fragmentation they are still the most unified bloc in the country and always pull together as a group when the need arises. before zoning/PDP nigeria had 3 southern heads of state with a TOTAL accumulated office time of 3 years and 9 months out of a possible 39 years. since zoning/pdp southerners have accounted for 9 years out of a possible 12. without zoning every other region/ethnicity/tribe/whateveryouwanttocallit outside of the north wouldn't have a chance in hell of taking the office of president. (everyone knows that it is zoning that has put gej in this position. without it he would be still be a non entity from bayelsa. it really is just that simple. in fact its just basic politics 101. anyone who say's otherwise is just naive). the north now feel aggrieved that they have only had 3 years in aso rock out of the last 12 years and will use their population supremacy to reverse this trend in 2011.

now here is the [size=16pt]key bit[/size]: northern dominance in population also translates to the allocation of pdp delegates as well:

North-West    860
North-Central    640
North-East    520
South-South    610
South-East    490
South-West    670
Total        3790

make no mistake about it the PDP is a NORTHERN party (2220 vs 1770) and people thinking Jonathan is going to win the primaries are borderline lunatics - yes i'm talking to you here BEAF. so lets assume the guy dominates the south-south and takes most of the south-west (very far from certain) his MUST make huge inroads in the south east (very unlikely) and the north (never going to happen) to even make the race close.

but this is NEVER going to happen.

the man is a dead man walking and this is why he has spent his 7-month tenure scheming, plotting and bribing, rather than governing and leading. it's almost laughable how such a crude man (pun intended) from the south south thinks he can outwit the cunning of the north. it took obj a good 8 years to obtain a level of control over the party system and even then his dream of total party control was scuttled. how goodluck intends to do it with no political base as well as an agitated north is madness and will inevitably lead to his political suicide.

you're most definitely right, the only problem is that everytime he reveals a policy its almost always universally rubbished.

The guy is literally too scared to speak about anything at length, so all we get are these stupid sound bites.

And to think this guy is the leader of the country.

God help us.

so what have we learned after 46 posts:

we learned that GEJ is a beneficiary of zoning
we learned that the south south believe that they are the sole proprietors of oil in the country
we learned that northern leaders should do more planting and less stealing
we learned that tribalism is alive and kicking
and we learned that the ONLY other south south politician with presidential credentials is Victor Attah,

WOW

Blazay:

Ouch!



Have mercy please.
They would probably be cooking with it and all die from cancer blaming the idle witches of Akwa Ibom jungles.
I am having a laugh today all dressed up in my pajamas with no hat on of course.

Ready for my "Sunday" Lewinsky treatment.

 

there was a serious topic to this thread but it has unfortunately degenerated into the usual tribalism/racism that accompanies anything that beaf/faeb touches.

krendo:

Nobody is feeding anybody

oil belongs to all of us.

Those in the immediate vicinity can be paid compensation for environmental hazard.

But they are not feeding anybody because neither they nor their fathers planted oil.

It is a Natural resource given to the whole of Nigeria by God and as a matter of fact most of Nigeria's oil are in the waters.

exactly. and anyway, if it wasn't for western demand they wouldn't know what to do with it. they would probably just try and distill the stuff and turn it into some kind of "black ground wine".

Faeb:

^
We are feeding and clothing you sir.
If you talk too much, we will simply allow you degenerate into your natural almajiri state of existence.

oh no, you can keep your clothes thank you very much. i'd hate to be walking around in a cowboy hat and pajamas all day.

if it wasn't for zoning your uncle and auntie would still be unknown crooks from the creeks

Just a quick question: How do people from the south south feel about GEJ potentially taking up their quota in this zoning agreement? Is he really the best the south south has to offer? Is he the right man for the job? If zoning is enforced in the foreseeable future then you wont get another opportunity for another 40 years, do you really want to waste this once in a generational shot on this guy??

mikeansy:

Jonathan Goodluck has every right to contest, every fool in Nigeria of the appropriate age who has completed primary 6 can also contest. So Jonathan can contest.

But he will not be getting my votes because he has not demonstrated that he is up to the job (and this is clearly the case with most people in the South East). He has had 10 months to do that and he has failed. I am not asking him to be brash like OBJ, I am only asking for a President brilliant enough to lead others.

If you want to conclude that the reason I am not supporting him is because I want an Igbo President in 2015; that is entirely your business. I won't even loose sleep trying to defend that argument because Igbos do not owe Jonathan any responsibility to support him and can not be blackmailed into supporting a candidate who is clearly not even brilliant enough to be a Local Government Chairman. So that noise is entirely up to you, you can continue making it but be sure that it wont win you any support because Igbos don't get bullied that easily.

Under President Jonathan we have seen a man who wants to industrialize Nigeria but approves a 1 billion dollar project to import dustbins.
Under President Jonathan we have seen a man who for some curious reasons depleted the Nation's ECA account for the sake of politics only to propose a soveraign wealth fund later after blowing the ECA just because he thinks it will buy him political loyalty.
Under President Jonathan we have seen a President who in the face of terrorists attacks on our independence day which saw some of our soldiers killed, instead of the President re-assuring the nation of his committment to find the perpetrators and purnish them he prefered to spend more time absolving the number one suspect and went as far as inviting some ex-militants for a tea party to Aso Rock.
Under President Jonathan we have seen a President promise a free and fair election only to try to sneak a lagislation through NASS that will see his own employees nominate him as Presidential candidate for the PDP.
We have seen President Jonathan oust an Ogbulafor who was only alledged to have stolen $1m only to install a man who possibly was part of 3 people who stole $236m just because the later will play by his own rules.
Under President Jonathan we have seen bribery flying all around with the latest being Pastor Tunde Bakare. Just spending money willfully when the country is broke.

What does Jonathan Goodluck even stand for? Aisha Sessay of CNN put this exact question to the  President and he could not answer.

All we have under President Jonathan are policy summersaults, never proactive on anything and at best reactionary. When he speaks you see a man clearly out of his debt which is why he spends more time behind the scene on facebook.

The man is surely headed home after 2011, this country deserves better. There is no way a dumb President will transform the political fortunes of this country.

This.

Faeb:

^
Blah, blah, blah. . . suya shop gist, blah blah. . .
The question is, what do you think about IBB's return?

i'll tell you what mate, i'll start believing your gist when you start believing mine

Faeb:

I am sure everyone knows GEJ's programmes. Who hasn't heard of the detailed and actioned plan to solve Nigeria's electricity problems? Who hasn't heard about the opening up of the petroleum industry, so that the average Nigerian can participate, rather than watch in the sidelines as the FG in turn watches foreign companies making away with our oil? Who hasn't heard of the various strategies to energise and empower the private sector?

Jonathans plans have got Nigeria and the World excited.
At this time, we should be arguing about details, not asking the obvious. Where have you been?

. . .Anyways, IBB is running, what are his programmes?

GEJ has left the whole world pretty underwhelmed about his ability to lead this country. on his recent visits to the US he has cut the figure of a man completely out of his depth. both hilary clinton as well as other senior members of the obama administration have serious reservations about the mans temperament and decision making skills. his recent handling of literally EVERY situation has gone on to compound these attitudes towards the man.

but anyhoo, keep on turbo posting your trite opinions.

you guys and your conspiracy theories

he has just spent the past week in europe and will be traveling to the US in the next few weeks to give a series of lectures.

As nobody else has respond to your post it seems that feeling is mutual.

Closed thread.

Don't be mislead by the headline guys. Whilst the judge has "allowed" GEJ to contest the election he has also stated clearly that zoning is indeed part of the PDPs constitution. This is key because GEJ/OBJ have spent the best part of 3 months trying to convince the whole world otherwise. Let me be very clear to everyone this decision will be greeted favourably by ALL anti GEJ/OBJ nigerian in the country. Nobody expected the judge to disqualify GEJ from contesting. But this has proved he is a liar. Again. This is all about winning the convention and so far the cowboy is loosing the battle and badly.

In fact, I don't even think it will be close. At all.

but that's not what you meant, is it? you were just referring to presidential elections, hence your original statement. if you were referring to ALL elections in this country then you'd know that they are far from being "easy to predict".

still a silly thread.

there have only ever been three "elections" in nigeria. so how exactly are they easy to predict?

stupid thread.