there are reasons why gej will never win the pdp primaries, talk less of the election proper. here they are:

northerners account for 50% of this country's population. how accurate these figures are is not for me to judge but those are the "official" government figures and in elections it's the "official" figure that counts. for all their perceived fragmentation they are still the most unified bloc in the country and always pull together as a group when the need arises. before zoning/PDP nigeria had 3 southern heads of state with a TOTAL accumulated office time of 3 years and 9 months out of a possible 39 years. since zoning/pdp southerners have accounted for 9 years out of a possible 12. without zoning every other region/ethnicity/tribe/whateveryouwanttocallit outside of the north wouldn't have a chance in hell of taking the office of president. (everyone knows that it is zoning that has put gej in this position. without it he would be still be a non entity from bayelsa. it really is just that simple. in fact its just basic politics 101. anyone who say's otherwise is just naive). the north now feel aggrieved that they have only had 3 years in aso rock out of the last 12 years and will use their population supremacy to reverse this trend in 2011.

now here is the [size=16pt]key bit[/size]: northern dominance in population also translates to the allocation of pdp delegates as well:

North-West    860
North-Central    640
North-East    520
South-South    610
South-East    490
South-West    670
Total        3790

make no mistake about it the PDP is a NORTHERN party (2220 vs 1770) and people thinking Jonathan is going to win the primaries are borderline lunatics - yes i'm talking to you here BEAF. so lets assume the guy dominates the south-south and takes most of the south-west (very far from certain) his MUST make huge inroads in the south east (very unlikely) and the north (never going to happen) to even make the race close.

but this is NEVER going to happen.

the man is a dead man walking and this is why he has spent his 7-month tenure scheming, plotting and bribing, rather than governing and leading. it's almost laughable how such a crude man (pun intended) from the south south thinks he can outwit the cunning of the north. it took obj a good 8 years to obtain a level of control over the party system and even then his dream of total party control was scuttled. how goodluck intends to do it with no political base as well as an agitated north is madness and will inevitably lead to his political suicide.

may you be alive so you can eat your own words.

Ma_J_Blige:

may you be alive so you can eat your own words.

good contribution missy. very thoughtful and erudite.

But the OP's argument is not ludicrous. It actually has some degree of logic in it.

In fact, I would ask how is it that the Northern zones have that many delegates. I guess it must be their 19 states. On the face of it, Jonathan might have a hard time, if he doesn't buy over at least a third of the 19 Northern governors It's almost certain that the opposition ACN will try to split the SW votes.

AjanleKoko:

But the OP's argument is not ludicrous. It actually has some degree of logic in it.

In fact, I would ask how is it that the Northern zones have that many delegates. I guess it must be their 19 states. On the face of it, Jonathan might have a hard time, if he doesn't buy over at least a third of the 19 Northern governors It's almost certain that the opposition ACN will try to split the SW votes.

but that's his problem; he can't pay of anyone because it's a secret ballot, people will just take the money and vote for atiku regardless.

he's playing in the big league now and swimming with the sharks,

AjanleKoko:

But the OP's argument is not ludicrous. It actually has some degree of logic in it.

In fact, I would ask how is it that the Northern zones have that many delegates. I guess it must be their 19 states. On the face of it, Jonathan might have a hard time, if he doesn't buy over at least a third of the 19 Northern governors It's almost certain that the opposition ACN will try to split the SW votes.

The issue here is not about the Nigerian people but PDP party delegates in SW who might possible vote for GEJ

it's almost laughable how such a crude man (pun intended) from the south south thinks he can outwit the cunning of the north. it took obj a good 8 years to obtain a level of control over the party system and even then his dream of total party control was scuttled. how goodluck intends to do it with no political base as well as an agitated north is madness and will inevitably lead to his political suicide.

Don't mind the bloody, political 'Angulu'(vulture)
The Amphibian from Okirika. . . aka the Fisher-man from Bakassi-Atlantis.
Mr. Dark and Divinely-Ugly.
Supernatural drunk.
Spritually-impotent.
Intellectual Hobbit.
Moral/ethical crucible.
An oxy-moronic rubicon.



I dey laugh ooooooo.
Please, don't forget to count all the cows and goats.
Please, don't forget to count the birds and the bees.
Please, don't forget to count the chickens and the ducks.

No more transportation of namas to the South of Nigeria till the elections are ova.
Let them eat themselves for a change.

All herds must be counted! No pun intended.

Let 'beaf' or 'faeb' service himself for a change in more than one way or two.

I am sure he is 'long'  and 'thick' enough to reach that his lousy, wide, ngbatiscious mouth/behind(never sure which he is typing with at any given point in time) for some Xmas feasting and more.

before zoning/PDP nigeria had 3 southern heads of state with a TOTAL accumulated office time of 3 years and 9 months out of a possible 39 years. since zoning/pdp southerners have accounted for 9 years out of a possible 12. without zoning every other region/ethnicity/tribe/whateveryouwanttocallit outside of the north wouldn't have a chance in hell of taking the office of president. (everyone knows that it is zoning that has put gej in this position. without it he would be still be a non entity from bayelsa. it really is just that simple.

O J-es o.

I could not have put it beta.

To quote a dear Nigerian comedian. . . only zoning would have:

1. Packaged the life of GEJ for some meaningful marketability or finishing.

2. Ironed the wrinkled destiny of GEJ.

3. Put a "gator" in the character of GEJ.

Otherwise, he would still have been dust to dust and ashes to ashes even in life.

I endorse this message. Atiku for 2010 kpa kpa.


Make we see where the "Jega-Jega' wan to pass.

We shall definitely have "The return of the real Jega"! Star Wars style and caliber.

We don block am.

Just wondering if that father of all vagabonds is still laughing. 

Even if Atiku fails. . . I have had a swell time I tellya. This is fun.

Blazay:

Intellectual Hobbit

very funny

Interesting analysis. The secret ballot part seems very difficult for GEJ to get around. Will be interesting to see how this turns out.

this thing was already over before it started ,thank GOD  that dimwitted western puppet will not go any were.

appletango:

but that's his problem; he can't pay of anyone because it's a secret ballot, people will just take the money and vote for atiku regardless.

he's playing in the big league now and swimming with the sharks, 

Ah, but he can just make the money conditional on him winning, no? It isn't, "I'll pay you X if you vote for me", but "I'll pay you X if i win."

So he can still bribe effectively, I think. Or am I wrong. . . ?

DapoBear:

Ah, but he can just make the money conditional on him winning, no? It isn't, "I'll pay you X if you vote for me", but "I'll pay you X if i win."

So he can still bribe effectively, I think. Or am I wrong. . . ?

Atiku'll just one-up his offer!

MShittu:

Atiku'll just one-up his offer!

I highly doubt Atiku that has more cash available to him than GEJ does.

DapoBear:

I highly doubt Atiku that has more cash available to him than GEJ does.

He might, seeing as he has houses all over the place.
I'm yet to hear of any of GEJ's houses though.

Who needs money to corner Jega and Waziri. . .both from the North?
Nigerians are really daft.
Just a few threatening notes from Boko Haram and a few slaps from JTF.
No need for GMG(Ghana Must Go) bags to change hands.
Only goons like OBJ and JEG need those imported ballot boxes to enrich their family contractors this Xmas season.

Na we-we na.

GEJ wil get it.it even d north dat wil give him

DapoBear:

I highly doubt Atiku that has more cash available to him than GEJ does.

but atiku/ibb/adenuga/etc do, remember this is not just atiku, this is the whole north and i guarantee you that the north has more money than the south.

appletango:

but atiku/ibb/adenuga/etc do, remember this is not just atiku, this is the whole north and i guarantee you that the north has more money than the south.

Highly doubt that,

MShittu:

Highly doubt that,

oh you do? well i would have a quick rethink if i were you

appletango:

oh you do? well i would have a quick rethink if i were you

The GDPs of Northen states are very often much lower than those of southern ones. Economic activity is also much more concentrated in the south than it is up North.

GEJ has the entire revenue of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to use to bribe, if he must. He has the property of Nigeria (oil blocks, planes, homes, lands) he can bribe with. There is no way Atiku or any combination of his friends can beat GEJ if it comes down to bribing.

MShittu:

The GDPs of Northen states are very often much lower than those of southern ones. Economic activity is also much more concentrated in the south than it is up North.

i'm not talking about state wealth i'm talking about the wealth of individuals (ie business men and politicians).

appletango:

i'm not talking about state wealth i'm talking about the wealth of individuals (ie business men and politicians).

misunderstood you then

OP, Where's your source for the number of delegates?

DapoBear:

GEJ has the entire revenue of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to use to bribe, if he must. He has the property of Nigeria (oil blocks, planes, homes, lands) he can bribe with. There is no way Atiku or any combination of his friends can beat GEJ if it comes down to bribing.

GEJ couldn't get away with bribing one little old pastor with USD50k without the whole world hearing about it. it is actually much harder to "steal" directly from government funds today than it was in the past under military regimes. in the good old days the military boys could literally print cash from the national mint. and guess what, most of those guys were northern and we all know where their loyalties lie.

excanny:

OP, Where's your source for the number of delegates?

it's common knowledge within the party but here is a link:

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2010/09/100978/

appletango:

GEJ couldn't get away with bribing one little old pastor with USD50k without the whole world hearing about it. it is actually much harder to "steal" directly from government funds today than it was in the past under military regimes. in the good old days the military boys could literally print cash from the national mint. and guess what, most of those guys were northern and we all know where their loyalties lie.

Hrm, I would imagine that PDP delegates would be a bit more discreet than Bakare. Plus there are other ways to bribe people than throwing them cash.

And no, I don't think it would be difficult to steal money as the President of Nigeria.

With that said, if GEJ cannot defeat Atiku in the primary with all of the advantages he has, then he isn't fit to be president anyway, imo.

DapoBear:

Hrm, I would imagine that PDP delegates would be a bit more discreet than Bakare. Plus there are other ways to bribe people than throwing them cash.

And no, I don't think it would be difficult to steal money as the President of Nigeria.

With that said, if GEJ cannot defeat Atiku in the primary with all of the advantages he has, then he isn't fit to be president anyway, imo.

but that is where you are wrong. GEJ doesn't know his friends from his enemies at the moment. how does he know that the delegate he is trying to bribe are loyal to him? how does he know the guy isn't just going to run straight to the press a la bakare? and that's his predicament - the people he really needs to bribe are the people most likely to spill the beans.

^-- Do you really think the only way someone can be bribed is the ham-fisted way Bakare and SNG were? There are more subtle ways of doing it that can less easily be traced and can be denied if the target runs to the newspapers.

appletango:

GEJ couldn't get away with bribing[size=16pt] one little old pastor [/size] with USD50k without the whole world hearing about it. it is actually much harder to "steal" directly from government funds today than it was in the past under military regimes. in the good old days the military boys could literally print cash from the national mint. and guess what, most of those guys were northern and we all know where their loyalties lie.

LOL

Jonathan simply does not have the maths under a free for all contest.

He should protect the intrest of the Ijaw Nation and the South South by stepping down now and endorsing zoning.

With these numbers no Ijaw man will emerge President in the next 100years in a free for all contest.

But under the PDP zoning and power sharing the South South has produced President, Vice President, CDS, CAS, IG of Police, Deputy Speaker, Foreign Minister, Petroleum Minister, Justices to the Supreme Court. etc.

Jonathan should not betray the interest of ethnic minorities in Nigeria because of his winner takes it all attitudes.

He should consider his ambition carefully. A word is enough for the wise.
Because based on the numbers Atiku is headed for a landslide and this is the simple reason the only card left for the Jonathan/Sambo team is to keep attacking the concensus arrangement and hope that it fails.

DapoBear:

^-- Do you really think the only way someone can be bribed is the ham-fisted way Bakare and SNG were? There are more subtle ways of doing it that can less easily be traced and can be denied if the target runs to the newspapers.

of course there are. i just don't think GEJ and his team are capable of such shrewd thought, as they have bungled everything up to now. i mean, they tried to bride a pastor who had already declared his support for another candidate with foreign currency - do you really think they have slight of hand??