Appleyard's Posts
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WrriterNg:Man, are you really going down this path with Ibime? Don't disappoint me. |
shoodboi2:Let Ibime breath . |
LordAdam16:I suspect is less or more of an attempt by Iran or Russia to force the HTS into some sorts of strategic compromise considering that Turkey and the US are also breathing down their neck for their own geopolitical interests. A lot of surprises are in the offing vis-a-vis Syria. |
WrriterNg:The only reason why the US is the number economically is because of the Dollar. Kill that and they're nothing. |
WrriterNg:The guilty are afraid. James Hardly Chase. |
dermmy:I tell you. They're there for the oil, nothing more. We still do not know how a Trump would respond to this current escalations. Turkey will never allow US to secure all Syrian oil sites for itself. We are going to witness more chaos in the coming weeks. |
LordAdam16:The faceoff between the Turkey backed SNA and the US backed SDF is a spectacle to watch. Both backers are bringing in reinforcement, especially with Turkey bringing in defense systems. It shows they plan to dig in deeper and for the long haul. Interesting times ahead. |
WriteerNg:Wow. 2 years so quick. How time flies. Thank God for the gift of life. |
Regex:Can anything good news come out of the Middle East? More especially in the case of Syria as it is, I doubt. Syria is like a box of enigma, with too many players and too many competing interests. I'm happy for Russia because as a great geopolitical gambler, it has managed to play his cards well as such that it's core interest in the country has not suffered extensively. In fact, given its strategic relationship with many of the players in the Syrian theatre, Russia might just turn out to be the 'peace guarantor ' between the upcoming Syrian new government and Israel. Israel is on the loose right now in what it termed a preemptive measure to ensure it's own security given the current vacuum in power in Syria. But once a new government emerges, there is definitely going to be hostilities between the two because the government will be duty bound to defend and secure its territorial integrity. And with that government backed by Turkey, it won't take long before it would reinstate whatever military assets that Israel has destroyed at the moment. With Israel backed by the US, and Netanyahu banking on the incoming administration of the Trumpster whom we all know can go all out to defend Israel, the potential or further escalations and a serious Middle East hot war is now greater than ever. This is where Russia comes in., acting as the go-between the various players. But again, this is the Middle East and anything can happen. |
Vic2023:Like I said, things will get interesting from here onwards. Large US convoy crossing from Iraq into Syria while Turkey is doing the same. Iran can leverage the advantage to regroup while Russia sit back and watch how these supposed NATO partners kills themselves for the oil and money. |
Vic2023:Syria does not operate the S-300 directly. It was being operated by Russians. I suspect by now, they must have removed it from sight and back to Russian base in Kheimemim. |
seunny4lif:They chose not to fight. Most of the generals were bought off. Assad is to blame for much of what happened. |
WrriterNg:Well, Russia has many time shows itself as. master of the geopolitical game. A 'gambler' in the very act of it who knows when to hold his cards, when to fold them, when to walk away, and when to run. We knew from day one when the SAA soldiers started melting away from their positions that this was a well planned and coordinated offensive against Damascus. Russia did put up a show, but you cannot help a government that refused to help itself over the years. Be that as it may, one question arises, was this as a result of a direct intelligence failure on the part of Russia? Well, some so-called western Russian experts believed the 'lightening' offensive as they called it shows there was a gap in Russian intelligence. It was at this junction I laughed. Many Western political analysts despite what happened in Ukraine in 2014 still do not understand the Russian geopolitical mindset. No, it wasn't as a result of Russian intelligence failure. In fact, back in October, there was a report of a planned and imminent threat of serious hostilities and unusual militia grouping movements in the Northern part of the country. The Russians were aware of it. They saw it coming, but allows it to play out for the same apt reasons the writer you mentioned stated. Just like it happened in 2014, when the Maidan coup was building up, Russian intelligence saw it but allows it to play out according to the western design script. And Yanukovick was toppled and fled to Moscow. Then Russia played out it's side of the geopolitical chestboard--Crimea. ![]() The endgame of the US-led NATO design for Ukraine was to establish a huge and formidable naval presence on the doorsteps of Russia, and that would have been getting to Sevastopol. Since a Russian speaking president can not agree to that, he has to go, hence the color coded Maidan square revolution that took him out. But little did they know the grandmaster across the chestboard is always a step ahead. Russia needed a perfect and legitimate excuse to bring back Crimea, which they did without firing a single shot, as the west played right into the trap they created for themselves. Now, Syria is here again. As usual, many of our inhouse pygmies doing life in Langley prison of misinformation are rejoicing citing the Russian failure to save the Assad regime from the eventual collapse. But, it's Russia, rather, that has tacitly allowed the plot to play out. How? Why? The How. Six months prior to the fall of Damascus, the takfiris did notify Turkey of their intention to launch an offensive into Alleppo. That notification couldn't have gone unnoticed by Russian intelligence because, during that same period, Russia offered to directly trained the Syrian Arab Army, but as usual, the Syrian government refused. Moreover, Assad's refusal to take the deal Erdogan offered him to retake thousands of Syrian migrants and also influence the Kurds in the Turkish-Syrian border areas to pull back is an indication of the fact that Assad has always been a rigid, inflexible leader. Even the Iranian foreign minister recently corroborated this fact. To put it mildly, Assad was a simple, good man but not an effective leader that knows when to hold his cards, when to fold them, when to walk away, and when to run. Recently, the Iranian foreign minister did openly revealed that Assad himself was shocked at the way his own army melted away from their positions. A leader that has poor internal knowledge of what goes on within his inner circle cannot be propped up forever. Even his own ambassador to Moscow has condemned Assad for his ineffectiveness in every aspect of Syrian living standards and politics. His years of neglect and indifference made it easy for his army generals to be bought over and refused to fight, something neither Russia nor Iran can hardly do anything about. But, then why did Russia bother to put up a show by bombing sectors of the advancing takfiris? Well, common sense demand that they do afterall, they were there on the invitation of Assad. Moreover, the bombings did send a string warning to the takfiris and their handlers that Russia is committed to keeping it's two military facilities in Syria and will go all out to ensure their safety no matter whose horse is gored. And it seemed that message has been well heard because the takfiris has made commitment to Russia that nothing would happen to its naval and airbase leases once they assume power. Of course this was always going to be one of the outcome of the emergency tripartite meeting between Russia, Iran, and Turkey following the launch of the offensive by the takfiris. By allowing things to play out as they did (based on whatever underlying deals struck behind closed doors), Russia and Iran were able to scale the geopolitical traps laid for them by the western designs. Russia will not have to commit too much lives and resources in waging another war like it did in 2015 till 2022. At the same time, the Russians are able to keep their bases intact and maintain their presence in the Middle East. And here is why it gets interesting; 1. Whatever government that would come into power in Syria will have to make do with Russia's presence. Considering how polarized the country is right now, some groups would definitely demand Russian presence as a precondition to whatever agreement reach in the upcoming coalition in order to protect their interest and serve as a checkmate against possible overtures by the US and Turkish backed groups in the new coalition. 2. As long as Russia is in Syria, the dream Qatar;Turkey pipeline to Europe would not materialse. 3. It will not take long before Iran will reestablish access to those airbases seized in Alleppo and Hama, because you cannot kill an ideology, and there are thousands of ideologically driven people waiting to serve Iranian interests in the country. 4. The ongoing Israeli bombings across the Syrian border towns right now, which would definitely prompt the new Syrian government to react defensively in the near future. This could potentially pit Turkey against Israel in a direct military confrontation since Turkey is a staunch backer of the HTS-run Syrian new government. Then you have Iranian groups on one side, which, together with the Turkey backed groups wants the US out of the country. Already, Turkish backed groups SNA has taken Manbij from US backed group SDF. So the strategic defeat they think they inflicted on Russia or Iran with the removal of Assad is not a victory at all but a fallacy that would come back to haunt those involved. There is a reason why Hamas is happy that HTS conquered Syria. Israel will soon have on its door posts a rabid caliphate backed by Turkey in its Ottoman revanchism, and driven by someone devoid of Assad's temperance. Recent videos from some members of the HTS while celebrating their recent victory in Damascus saw two soldiers saying that they're coming for Jerusalem. There is a lot of surprises in waiting for the middle east, and Syria will once again play a key role in its events. |
LordAdam16:After listening that Segey Lavrov said in Doga during an interview with Al Jazeera, i became convinced that there was a lot of backdoor agreements between the major powers that plays the Syrian geopolitical ball game. The coming weeks will be very interesting, especially with how they plan to share power between the various groups. |
LordAdam16:Well, it's official: Damascus has fallen without. Fight. Assad has left the capital. This is really interesting, especially considering how polarized the country is. Now, the euphoria of Assad departure is on the vibe, but a repeat of the Libyan experience is imminent because of the too many players in the equations. Time will tell. |
LordAdam16:It's obvious they have sold out given what we have seen so far and the information coming in from Damascus is that Assad has fled the capital while about 2000SAA soldiers have crossed the border into Iraq to seek refuge. If this is true, we can safely say the Assad's family 54 years dynasty in Syria have finally come o an end. But many questions remain unanswered and the situation is even more puzzling than it appears. What was the outcome of the recent meeting between Russia, Iran, and Turkey at the top levels? What deal have they struck? I guess we will never know. What would be the fate of Russian naval port and airbase in Syria assuming the info is true and that Assad is deposed? A lot of things don't make sense. |
WrriterNg:There are times I don't understand you guys here. Must you reply every post designed to derail the thread away from common sense and sane engagement? Leave senseless people with their senselessness, don't give them the attention they seek, and the thread will become tantrum-free. |
LordAdam16:If Assad survives this, men, the repercussion would be bloody all the way to the borders with Turkey. The more I think of it, the more I shudder at what lies ahead. Have you considered the possibility that the man could be assassinated? ![]() |
seunny4lif:If Turkey actually makes that last paragraph statement, then it's certain that so much shite will hit the fan sooner than we think. I know Erdogan is a two-faced sellout, but thinking he can play both the East and the west at the same time , leveraging Turkiye's strategic location and it's NATO partnership is strategy that only works for a while and backfire immensely later on like it happened in 2015. As for the Iraqis saying they will not get involved, I'm not too sure about that because the politicians says one thing and the military grouping says another contradicting each other. In fact, they will have no option later on but ro intervention because this would clearly spiral into their country whether they like it or not, especially if Assad regime falls. The coming weeks will be deadly, and the cosmic numerals suggest a bleak period for Syria as a nation. If you recall, intense fighting started in similar faction in the late period of 2014, and just when it seems the Assad regime would go down, the Russian and Iranian overt intervention began in early 2015 after a Russian genera walked into the office of the US military headquarters in Iraq and submitted a 24-hour clear-the-air notice, warning the US and it's allies of Russia's intended direct military engagement in Syria, which immediately followed the next day. Today, we're here again....December, the last month of 2024, and the takfiris are getting closer to Damascus like it happened in 2014. January 2025 is pregnant with many unseen events that might make 2015 a child's play book in the cosmic orderliness of things. I hate to say it, but this is going to get very ugly for everyone involved. It could potentially spark a huge war in the Med as Alois Irlmaier predicted. These are scary times. |
seunny4lif:Those guys are not rebels. The western press keeps calling them that but they're not. They are terrorists who cleanse and erase Christian and other minority populations wherever they have gone in Northern Syria. The majority of them are not even Syrians They are expansionist Islamist forces backed by Turkey. They have already imposed a curfew on churches in Aleppo as we speak. Thousands of Syrian Christians have fled Alleppo and are internally displaced. The ones that remained in the city live in significant fear, as violence against them could intensify rapidly. No one should fall for the PR stunt they're doing right now. Their Islamic cutthroat ideology is still intact and already being demonstrated. As for Homs, the battle would be brutal, but if the rumors are true that there is an attempted coup against Assad, then more problems could before Damascus. Come to think of it, the way the SAA abandons their positions without much efforts and the confidence the terrorist demonstrated going forward suspiciously indicates that they have insiders and sleeper cells within the top echelon of the Assad government setup that I aiding them. The coming weeks will be very interesting. |
Lawag3:Fact is fact, no matter whose horse is gored. These are dangerous times. |
WrriterNg:There would definitely have to be some sort of foreign reinforcement to bolster the Syrian Arab Army against the rapidly advancing takfiris cum opposition fighters. I don't expect that reinforcement to come from Hezbollah in terms of substantial manpower considering that the war with Israel has taking a toll on its ranks (though there is rumor they're now actively recruiting to try and have enough forces they can send to Syria). Russian airpower will not be enough to stop the advancing terrorists. They need to put extensive troops on the ground. The best option would have been Wagner but the time frame is too short, and their commitments across Africa and in the Ukraine war means getting a significant number of them would be extremely if not totally difficult. This leaves us with two remaining options. Iran could send troops as they have threatened. However, If they do, this can quickly cause the crisis to spiral into a full blown regional war because, Israel would most likely attack the Iranian deployed troops, and should that happens, the Iranian response would be crazy and instantaneous, which in turn, may tempt the US to intervene on behalf of Israel, thus putting Russian military assets in the crosshair because it is certain that the Iranians would be heavily reliant on and using Russian military facilities since their access to their favourite military bases in Alleppo and Hama has now been cut off by the rebels after seizing those cities in the surprise attacks that appears to be well coordinated with western supports. And we all know what would likely happen if Russian bases in Latakia and elsewhere in Syria's comes under direct attacks. Russian subs and war ships are already in striking positions in the Med and Baltic seas. The response would be ear-splitting. Even the Yankees understand this risk hence they have reopened a communication hotline with the Russians in Syria, akin to the days of the Syrian uprising and the Russian overt intervention back in 2015. Many people don't know how close we are now to WW3 than before. That leaves us with one last option. Allow the Iraqi militia grouping to cross from Iraq into Syria as they have pledged recently. If they do before the terrorist reaches and cut off Homs, the battle would likely swing back in Syria's army favour because the Iraqi militia has a large army grouping numbering up to 100,000 fighters. With Russian and Syrian air power, the so-called HTS forces would have more than enough to cope with and their imminent defeat would cause their secret sponsors to surface in the open. From there, things will either cool down with backdoor deals or escalate based on the risk calculus by the opposing powers that be. Till then, Damascus faces a real threat if Homs falls. The real winner in all of this chaos is Israel. But the reason why this current shite is even more dangerous is the fact that Russia will NEVER allow the Assad regime to fall, not after investing so much for many years. Russia don't backstab or abandon their friends. When they stand up for you, they stand up with you to the end. Undermine the Russian resolve to your own peril. The only regrettable thing is that these cities now in the hands of the terrorist will once again be bombed back into the stone age of ruins they were many years ago, no thanks to the US driven war policy and interventionism in the Middle East. One day, the fowl will come home to roost. |
IMEI: ![]() That logic again. ![]() |
Mille:When it suits their narrative, it's diversity and friendly, but when it doesn't, it's terrorists and terrorism. |
shoodboi2:And it failed dramatically. |
WrriterNg:You can't outdo the Reddit thief and Prophet of Baal combo. Even Satan would have a hard time outdoing them. ![]() |
seunny4lif:Fela was right all along. Western democrazy and demonstration of madness in full swing |
shoodboi2:By God, what was the rationale for the martial law? Power, indeed, corrupt. |
WrriterNg:You can never reason with a mad man. The best is to avoid him. |
shoodboi2:Its funny how our inhouse western bots can conveniently dispute the impact of Oreshnik when immediately after the strike, NATO called an emergency meeting and Elensky now considering the possibility of ceding some territories to Russia in a possible peac deal. I have said it many times before, you can't convince someone who is intentionally deluded and pride themselves as apostles of mendacity. The best answer to these class of people is strict adherence to the SIO. This has helped me to protect my sanity. |
WriteerNg:One reason I said this is beyond Turkey's own doing. |
dvkot:I don't see Turkey's hand in this current terrorist attack. It doesn't make sense that they toll this line now since they will have so much to lose in terms of a new wave of migrants overflowing into their country. While they share in the blame, I think this is something that equally took them off guard. US and Israel handwritings is all over this. A redestabilized Syria is good for Israel's war with Hezbollah and on Gaza. However, things can quickly turnaround if Iran seized the opportunity to launch a reprisal attack on Israel for the IDF last attack on Iran, while it's proxies focus on attacking US military installations across the Middle East. The new Middle East war that Alois Irlmaier talked about would have began in earnest. Interesting times ahead. |
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