₦airaland Forum

raumdeuter:
In the attached spreadsheet you didnt adjust the NW and NE figures to reflect my prediction

In your numbers for 2015 SS had the highest turnout and that was understandable. Jonathan was a Son of the SS.

Are you thinking the SS will have the same turnout as in 2015 when their son was President and contestant?
Most SS are interested in local elections like Governors and HOA and not really president to choose between APC candidates of NW/SW and PDP candidates of NE/SE

I am expecting a 40% or less turnout in SS

Ok. I have made the adjustments. I reduced SS turnout from 5.1m to 3.4m (33% drop). Therefore APC wins with 1m plus margin. This is fun. Lets wait and see what happens on Sat.

raumdeuter:
NW APC 65% PDP 35%
NE APC 55% PDP 45%
NC APC 55% PDP 45%
SW APC 65% PDP 35%
SE APC 20% PDP 80%
SS APC 30% PDP 70%

You have to factor that the turnout in the North and SE will be similar to that of 2015, The turnout in the SS will be less than that of 2015 since there is no SS son on the ticket and there will be some apathy in many parts of the SS

Ok. Going by your numbers, this gives it to APC.
A slight shift in NE or NW in PDPs favor will give it to PDP. Fingers crossed till Sat/Sun. If this election is relatively free and fair its very difficult to tell who will win. It would be really close.

Play with the % change in the NW & NE and see how PDP might win. Here is another take. PDP wins in NE but does not pick up as much in the NW. I am not aligned with either party so there is no bias here. I am looking at this purely from a numbers perspective.

kingkakaone:
Some people don't understand political calculations.
How can one expect Buhari to have same outcome in the SS and SE? He will score more votes in these regions due to so many factors involved thought he will lost some votes in his stronghold.

First is the fact that he's now an incumbent with soldiers and police under him to help checkmate opposition unlike in the past when he was an outsider.

Secondly, He has lots of bigwigs from the two zones this election than during the last election.

Thirdly, the SS already cannot write results in Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom states like the past.
Finally, no election results has ever stayed the same since the return of democracy.

That being said, I am neither for APC nor PDP, I only stated the obvious.

Ok. Your points have been noted and I have made some changes to my projections. 2 questions

1. Are the percentages reasonable.
2. Do you agree that both APC & PDP can get 25% of the vote in 24 out of 36 states

If the answer to both questions is yes, then the chart shows it is reasonable that PDP can win the presidential election. The key is the % change in the states with the highest number of voters.

senatordave1:
Op,stop trying to be clever by half.how did you come about such swing? If so,you must also add a 15% swing for apc in the ss,se.you seem to be underestimating the mighty potential of apc machinery down south.if you analyze well you will discover that federal might and massive rigging are responsible for massive pdp votes down south not any real votes.again atiku is not a native like gej in 2015.

Intact,if you had gone back to 2011 polls,you will discover a pattern.in 2011 pdp got 11 million votes from the ss,se while buhari got 60,000.buhari got 10 million votes from the north while pdp got 8 million.
In 2015 pdp got 7 million from the the ss,se while buhari got 600,000.pdp got 3.7 million while buhari got 12.4 million.take note that pdp had a candidate from the ss,se in 2011 and 2015 yet his votes here dropped.if you go by this,that means atiku votes will reduce further down south while buhari own should increase triple fold.

So go back to 2011 and recalculate with particular reference to the results down south.take considerstion of each parties performance at all elections from 2016.switch off your partisanship.

Actually 15% is just an estimate of the number of voters who voted for APC in 2015 who are now unhappy and will vote PDP this time around. May be more or less. Even at 10% swing in the north PDP is still ahead. But 15% is the safe number.
Any swing in other parts of the country (plus or minus) will not be enough to overcome a 15% swing in the north in PDP's favour. I hope you can follow my analysis.

yes a lot has changed but i expect the voting pattern will not change noticeably except in the northern states. PDP percentages will be much better than 2015 in the north and will stay pretty much the same in other parts of the nation.

This is all it takes for Atiku to win (15% swing from APC to PDP in the North)

From my analysis using 2015 results as a baseline, It appears all that is needed is a 15% swing from APC to PDP in the North to make PDP the winner provided all other regions stay the same as 2015. Yes a 15% swing from APC to PDP in all states in the North is very possible. Both APC & PDP will get the required > 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states bit PDP will win on total number of votes. See below.

Atiku may not win these NW/NE states but he will surely get more than 25% of the vote in many of them. I expect APC 55% PDP 45% or vice versa in all of the North IF the elections are free and fair.

To all those who think a running mate from the SW will make a significant difference please consider the following

1. SW usually votes for whoever they think will present a progressive agenda for Nigeria not because of tribe etc. In 2015, PMB was voted for in the SW because we thought he would restore some sanity to the system and not because of Prof Osinbajo per se.
2. SW votes have always been split 60/40 between opposition and PDP regardless of who the candidate is. Even in 2015 when PMB won, the vote was still split 60/40 between apc and pdp. Its not going to be any different this time around.
3. Even when Obasanjo a SW candidate was running, the vote was still split 60/40 at the presidential election.

In 2019, the SW vote will still be split 60/40 is what I think regardless of who the VP candidate is.

I read the entire document produced by the US Senate. It does not directly accuse Atiku of anything other than transferring money from off shore companies into the US. They report only suspects that the funds are not legitimate. There is no proof. This write up could easily describe and apply to about 90% of businessmen and govt officials in Nigeria.
I am not implying Atiku is clean. But in Nigeria, who can point to a clean man with the kind of money Atiku has.

I see a guy with a few notes in his hand. Period. How does that imply vote buying.

It takes approximately 80-90 passengers on that route to cover fuel costs. I have used approximations which may be off here and there. Pardon me.
one way ticket price .. aprox $400 = N144,000 @360 to 1
number of passengers to cover cost of fuel = 12,500,000/144,000 approx 87.

i.e it takes 87 passengers paying $400 each to cover the 12.5m for fuel.
Typically, a full load for a 747 is about 300 passengers.
Therefore, a full load on that route will generate 300 * 144,000 = N 43,200,000

There is money to be made if an airline is run efficiently and continues to attract satisfied customers.

What's up with Victor Moses. He seems very weak and contributes very little to the team except when the ball is passed to him. No effort no energy.

OandO is owner by Olawale Tinubu. Acquired via a leveraged buyout. (described below)
A leveraged buyout (LBO) is the acquisition of another company using a significant amount of borrowed money to meet the cost of acquisition. The assets of the company being acquired are often used as collateral for the loans, along with the assets of the acquiring company.
Initially owner by Olawale Tinubu and his friend Onajite Okoloko thus the OandO (Olawale and Onajite)
Nothing to do with Bola Tinubu.
i.e he used the assets of Unipetrol to borrow funds to buy Unipetrol or something like ..... genius right.

Who wants a clean US model Toyota Matrix XRS 6 Speed Manual transmission. Landed cost ex Tin Can Island is only 1.4m. Buyer arranges and pays clearing. Let me know. No tricks no gimmicks. 100% fool proof transaction. I usually buy cars for relatives and friends on order. This is my first public transaction.

You can remove state of origin. Wont make a difference. Imagine a "Lamidi Adepoju" running for governor of Enugu state. How will that ever fly.

* Basic Salary (B.S) - N2,484,245.50
* Hardship Allowance (50% of B.S) - N1,242,122.70
* Constituency Allowance (200% of B.S) - N4,968,509.00
* Newspapers Allowance (50% of B.S) - N1,242,122.70
* Wardrobe Allowance (25% of B.S) - N621,061.37
* Recess Allowance (10% of B.S) - N248,424.55
* Accommodation (200% of B.S) - N4,968,509.00
* Utilities (30% of B.S) - N828,081.83
* Domestic Staff (70% of B.S) - N1,863,184.12
* Entertainment (30% of B.S) - N828,081.83
* Personal Assistants (25% of B.S) - N621,061.12
* Vehicle Maintenance Allowance (75% of B.S) - N1,863,184.12
* Leave Allowance (10% of B.S) - N248,424.55
* Severance Gratuity (300% of B.S) - N7,452,736.50
* Car Allowance (400% of B.S) - N9,936,982.00
* TOTAL MONTHLY SALARY = N29,479,749.00
I think the poster has this a bit wrong.
Some of the figures are annual amounts not monthly amounts.
For instance, Leave Allowance is once a year (you go on leave once a year) , Car allowance is perhaps every 2-3 years (they don't renew their cars every month) , Severance Gratuity is 1 time only (when they leave the senate), accommodation in once a year (the don't pay rent every month) and so on and so forth.

The picture you posted of the current state of Benin/Sagamu express way is nothing special. This was exactly what it looked like in the 90's when Buhari - Babangida - Abacha were in power so don't tell us GEJ has done something great. Maintenance of roads is something that should happen regardless of who is the President and is the barest minimum we should expect from any government.
To tout basic road maintenance & repair as an achievement in 2015 reveals how low we have set the bar for our leaders. Anyone with a pen can award a contract to repair a road. We should demand leadership and visionary thinking/ideas from leaders.

This is not research done by the Brookings Institute. Its just an article written by a Nigerian and published by Brookings Institute. The article in question was written by Jideofor Adibe, Senior Lecturer, Nasarawa State University

Qualification for Election

2. A person shall be qualified for election to the office of President or the National Assembly if:-

(a) he is a citizen of Nigeria;

(b) in the case of President, he has attained the age of 40 years;

(c) in the case of Senator, he has attained the age of 35 years;

(d) in the case of Member of House of Representatives, he has attained the age of 30 years;

(e) he has been educated up to at least the School Certificate level or its equivalent; and

(f) he is a Member of a Political Party and is being sponsored by that party.


Please see item (e). - Educated up to at least School Cert or its equivalent. Would you agree that graduation from NDA is at least equivalent to WASC. If NDA is not good enough, how about graduation from MONS Officer training in the UK. What about graduation from US War College. I'm sure we can all agree that they are at least equivalent to WASC.

I came across this picture. I think it completely says all that needs to be said about 16yrs of PDP

AutoCheck Vehicle History Report
2001 Nissan Pathfinder LE / SE / XE
Report Run Date: 2013-02-18 09:26:27.388 EST
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Class: SUV - Lower Mid Range
Engine: 3.5L V6 MPI
Country of Assembly: Japan
Vehicle Age: 12 year(s)
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VIN: JN8DR07Y21W532209
Year : 2001
Make : Nissan
Model: Pathfinder LE / SE / XE
Style/Body: SUV 4D
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Last Reported Odometer: 171,792

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I'm about to ship a car to Lagos (have not shipped in a long while). I was wondering if CTN was still required.
Anyone with useful info. Thanks

I have read this type of thread many times in the past without commenting. Here are the points to note

Many Nigerians come to the US after between the ages of 25-35 and some even in thier 40's. For these folks, its like life is starting all over again.
America is about careful planning. The system is built on careful planning and the concept of you get what you have earned. I used to work in Nigeria in a bank where you would get your housing allowance in Jan as a lump sum. You can never get that kind of cash in the US unless
a) you borrow
b) you steal
c) win the lottery

Carefully plan each dollar making sure you save at least 20cents on each dollar and when the hard time comes (and they will come) you have a fall back position.
If you anticipate a major expense coming up, plan for it. (i.e save)
I appreciate the fact the America has gotten harder in the past few years. The jobs available are often high skill jobs in IT and health care etc. The usual low skill service jobs that many of our folks get stuck with are getting few abd far between. The idea is to continually improve your self and the jobs will look for you.
I can readily testify to that. By the grace of God, I have a job where I work from home. I dont leave my house unless I want to. I get paid more than a US senator. I have excellent health care benefits paid for by my employer. I have plentiful savings. My wife has never worked for 1 day since we came to the US. I once started a business and ran up $80k in debt. I paid off the debt all from my salary. And I know many Nigerians here in the neighbourhood that I live that can tell the same story.

I strongly beleive God can bless you wherever you are. If God has brought you to America, utilize the opportunity (and it is a good opportunity) to the fullest and STOP comparing yourself to your mates back home. It is 2 completely different worlds and systems.

he willprovide

I have read this type of thread many times in the past without commenting. Here are the points to note

Many Nigerians come to the US after between the ages of 25-35 and some even in thier 40's. For these folks, its like life is starting all over again.
America is about careful planning. The system is built on careful planning and the concept of you get what you have earned. I used to work in Nigeria in a bank where you would get your housing allowance in Jan as a lump sum. You can never get that kind of cash in the US unless
a) you borrow
b) you steal
c) win the lottery

Carefully plan each dollar making sure you save at least 20cents on each dollar and when the hard time comes (and they will come) you have a fall back position.
If you anticipate a major expense coming up, plan for it. (i.e save)
I appreciate the fact the America has gotten harder in the past few years. The jobs available are often high skill jobs in IT and health care etc. The usual low skill service jobs that many of our folks get stuck with are getting few abd far between. The idea is to continually improve your self and the jobs will look for you.
I can readily testify to that. By the grace of God, I have a job where I work from home. I dont leave my house unless I want to. I get paid more than a US senator. I have excellent health care benefits paid for by my employer. I have plentiful savings. My wife has never worked for 1 day since we came to the US. I once started a business and ran up $80k in debt. I paid off the debt all from my salary. And I know many Nigerians here in the neighbourhood that I live that can tell the same story.

I strongly beleive God can bless you wherever you are. If God has brought you to America, utilize the opportunity (and it is a good opportunity) to the fullest and STOP comparing yourself to your mates back home. It is 2 completely different worlds and systems.

he willprovide

Definitely forged. The amount in words is written over the stamp. How can that be. Was the check stamped before it was written.

President Jonathan if he is as wise as he wants us to believe should realise that his candidacy is doing more harm than good to the country. I would prefer if he would focus on holding credible elections as am impartial and nonparticipating president instead of the current farce.
I do not belong to any party neither do I support any one candidate.  His actions and utterances thus far would indicate that he is desperate to continue as President; The question becomes , how does he ensure impartiality and free elections under such circumstances. I don't see how.
My advice - GEJ take the path of honor and "step aside". Nigeria will thank you.

Lets face it, none of the so called candidates really stands out. Neither does GEJ. I don't care who becomes President. So long as that person is selected and voted for in a free and fair election (including party primaries , party agreements, party constitutions etc, )
Vox Populi Vox Dei.
The voice of the people is the voice of God.

I left Nigeria about 15yrs ago. Some of my mates are close to CEO level etc in Nigeria. Some are struggling.  However, some of us have done very well where we are. All without knowing or having a SINGLE CONNECTION. That's what living abroad is about.
Could I have done better in Nigeria. Possibly. Have I done well where I am. Yes.
Home for me is where I live. I can always visit Lagos whenever I want and enjoy those things that I miss for a while, then back to civilisation.
When I left Nigeria, I was doing quite well. I was already a Manager in a bank , 2 cars etc, But the place was like living in a crazy world where no one cares or obeys and rules or laws. And its still the same as at Sept 2010 when I visited.
Advice to all. Never compare your self to another. Be the best YOU that you can be wherever you are.
PS
I would agree though that many Nigerians live abroad exactly as if they were still in Nigeria. No personal advancement, no attempt to understand and utilize the opportunities that abound. Whenever I come across Nigerians who complain about life abroad, I remind them that this is the same country that they prayed and fasted for the a visa for. What happened to that dream.
Questions in the right context and perspective makes more sense than abstract comparisons.

I was in the Uk a few years back and went to Peckham for a Nija night out with the boys.
Though there were many Nigerians every where (especially Yoruba) I did not find it at all bad.
It was fairly typical for a lower income neighborhood in any western country including the US where I live.
I know they have street markets , so what do you expect on during market hours.

Check this out. People who earned their money the hard way are giving most of it to charity, What about Nigerias so called Billionaires,

Oracle's Ellison, 40 Billionaires Pledge Wealth To Charity
By Shelly Banjo and Rob Guth
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Billionaire and Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Chairman Larry Ellison will join movie director George Lucas and 38 other billionaires who are following a call made in June by Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates to pledge the majority of their wealth to charity.
On Wednesday, the trio will announce that 40 of America's wealthiest individuals and families, from Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) co-founder Paul G. Allen to hotel mogul Barron Hilton have signed on to the "Giving Pledge," an invitation Buffett and the Gates' extended in June for America's wealthiest families to publicly commit to giving away at least half of their wealth to charity within their lifetimes or after their deaths. The pledge stemmed from a series of dinners the two men held for the nation's billionaires over the past year to discuss the effects of the recession on philanthropy.
As philanthropy can often be a private matter, some signatories came as a surprise. Software mogul Ellison is among those who have given widely but rarely stated their intentions so publicly.
"Until now, I have done this giving quietly--because I have long believed that charitable giving is a personal and private matter," wrote Ellison in a public letter on the Giving Pledge's website.
He said he put virtually all his assets into a trust with the intention of giving away at least 95% of his wealth to charitable causes and has already given hundreds of millions of dollars to medical research and education.
"So why am I going public now? Warren Buffett personally asked me to write this letter because he said I would be 'setting an example' and 'influencing others' to give," Ellison wrote. "I hope he's right."
Other billionaires on the list, including New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens, had previously stated their plans to give away the majority of their wealth to charity but said calling attention to their plans will encourage others to follow suit.
"I've long stated that I enjoy making money, and I enjoy giving it away. I like making money more, but giving it away is a close second," Pickens wrote in a letter on the Giving Pledge website. "To date, I've given away nearly $800 million to a wide-range of charitable organizations, and I look forward to the day I hit the $1 billion mark."

People who earned their money the hard way are giving most of it to charity, What about Nigerias so called Billionaires,