₦airaland Forum

[quote author=Mcy56 post=84437610]Some cross deals witnessed in Glaxosmith this morning and at day's high, 6.25 (previos close was 5.70)
I dont know what that means, but just to update you in case you want to keep eye on it. [/quote

Just last night I did a search of Nsempa of gsk/Glaxosmith and I found out that it was long ago in January 2018 that the stock was discussed in any details by members. Since this stock is one of the few blue chips that have not rallied with the current bull, I wish that our gurus will analyses and comment on the stock. How sweet will it be if the lots of Ogg, cp, rebekah, loco,rugged, oracle and others can let us have the benefit of their views of this stock.

Mpeace:
The problem is not the listing price. Rather, it is "the scheme of the arrangement". What amount of the new entity would be given to ccnn shareholders,
...and what happens after listing, given the 35billion OS.
Remember that wapco is a bigger cement company than the new entity, yet market has left wapco at 14. So do the maths

You hammered the two problems with the deal. The arrangement provides for the exchange of a disproportionately high quantity of ccnn shares for one share of Obu. I am no longer sure of the exact figure but it like 516 ccnn for one obu share. Death of a promising stock.

COST OF TRANSACTION. I culled this from a stock investor's complaint on Nairametrics

Ola Ilesanmi August 27, 2019 at 12:10 pm

I don’t actually know what investors will return as gains as from next January if an investor pays
1.statutory Charges on equities subscribed @ 3.9% per transaction
2. VAT on investment 5% per transaction
3. VAT ( the percentage yet to be declared by IFRS ) on online transactions within or outside the country . One should understand that dividends are now transmitted electronically .per dividend
4 . You are going to pay stamp duty of #56.5 per lodgement
5. A minimum charge of #50 for ATM maintenance .monthly .
A HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
Company : Timber PLC
Cost per unit : #4
Buying 1000 units is equal to #4000
TRANSACTION
Brokerage charge at 3.9%= #156
VAT on investment at 5% = #200
VAT on dividends say at 5%#200
Stamp duty charge at #56.5
ATM monthly service at #50
TOTAL. #656.5
DIVIDEND DECLARED BY THE COMPANY
.45kobo per share translating to #(.45×1000units) ÷ 100 = #450
Therefore an investor’s is equal to -#246.5 !
Even if you have your name in Forbes as a captain of industries , the above is still outside infrastructural maintenance , tariffs , EPA , staff salary etcetera that is if the above example is to be in multiple of millions , billions , trillions say for a multi national company .
DO WE REALLY HAVE ECONOMIC THINKERS / PUNTERS IN NIGERIA ?
Jijoist should factor these costs.

Topson88:
Good afternoon,

I intend to buy a stock with intention to sell after dividend payment in April 2020 with less risk of capital depreciation. GTB comes to mind...
Is it okay to buy GTB at current price I will appreciate your response.
Thanks

You will be better of buying zenith, afriprud or ucap which have higher dividend yields than gtb, have not appreciated much relative to gtb and do not depreciate much after dividend. Gbt has left the station taytay. Buy soon before rejected TB money fully penetrates the market.

Mcy56:
Lasaco Assurance has been consistent with dividend payment for the past few years now.
A stock selling for 25k as at now paid 5k to shareholders for YE 2018.
Plan for Private Placement to 'strategic/selected investors' at 1.20k per share is ongoing.
Watching this one. Time will tell.

Caveat: Not monkey hunting, just trying to get more details about it.

Thanks for this info. Infact thanks for the many Infos you have been giving us so selflessly. Lasaco is attractive as a jijo candidate. I will do due diligence and do the needful. Thanks again.

fxuser:
Pre mkt

Zenith
- trading abv prev week close (doji week , so +ve price action is d sig u want to see),
- also firms up support above N18.50 level)

#swingBuy

Dear fxuser is there a free website to follow what is happening at pre market? Thanks.

Standardguy:
Yes big bros. This market is NOT for the impatient. I am a one stock man (a stock that can pay me dividend in the worst case scenario). I buy from September to November and cash out in January. Even if the bulls or the bears are on rampage I don't sell until January . It has worked for me for some years now with unimaginable profits.

It is advisable to enter the market, buy a good stock or stocks with good financials and forget it till January. Moving from one stock to another this period only reduces profit, increases regrets as well as discouragement when others are profiting. I just buy, leave it and pray as only God knows the stock that will rally the most during the xmas rally/January effect. It might even be Zenith though I don't have it.

Sir, I totally agree with you that last quarter of the year is not for moving stocks. I am curious to know what you do with proceeds of sale between the intervening period of February to August, do you jijo during this period or you withdraw your cash? Thanks.

[quote author=locodemy post=84273217]My optimism is only suitable for me alone o.

Instead of holding zenith,I better hold wapco.

This is the philosophy guiding me now.All I know is it will work for me.

You can also do your own comparison between wapco and any other stock based on how long you have been @wapco.[/quote


Thanks for replying bro. I totally agree about having your guiding philosophy. What am seeking is that you kindly explain it to those of us who may seek adopt it. I need to state that your recent stock choice strategy (Locoist strategy) totally appeals to me as it aligns with how I think retail investors can operate profitably given the peculiarities of the NSE.

locodemy:
I held zenith for 2.5 years.If not dividend,I for loose heavily.Others can continue to hold,For Loco,I don port not to come back again.Looking the way of Wapco,wapco,wapco and wapco.......

Na because of this your optimism I dey commot my fi ger for sell button and never sell this wapco wey just dey fallfall and wey never benefit shishi for this bull. Wetin you see for the stock self apart from hopinson?

onegentleguy:
My Pleasure Sir !!
...I am humbled by ur show of encomium.
But I no be celebrity oo. Na learner I be !!

Good to have u back with us.
Regards.

You cannot imagine how many people are the beneficiaries of the altruistic service you give here. I don't know who has made me money/saved me money between you and one Mr Spyder in the property section. God bless both of you.

emmanuelewumi:
I am more of a dividend investor, so my reason for buying the stock might be different from yours.
It is a good stock for income investors, the IPO was overpriced at N10.00 when the company's shares were sold about 6 years ago.

I started buying last year when the share price came down.

Thanks Sir.

emmanuelewumi:
I bought more units of UPDC REIT at N4.05k, they paid a dividends of 58k about 2 weeks ago.

Sir I have a strong feeling that you must have bought those units from me as that is the price my stockbrokers sold the few units they have succeeded in selling lol. I qualified for the dividend too, indeed it was what attracted me to buy the stock in the first instance. Seeing that Mr. Rebekah and your goodself, (the babanlanla of shares) hold the shares and you even recently increased your stake, I am beginning to doubt the wisdom of my desire to sell my holdings at all cost. Sir, what is your view of the stock considering that it has lost about 60% of its value YTD and how will it's value will be affected by the impending unbundling of Uac. Is is still a hold? Thanks Sir.

owoblow77:
Guys, I got a mail from a fellow Nairalander. He asked a question, and he's given me permission to post here.
Bamofi, I'm sorry for not being able to respond on time. I'm still trying to recuperate from a surgery. I'll log-out immediately I post your request:

Hello bro, I have been a silent reader on NL for more than a decide mostly on stock and property sections. I registered recently as I wanted to ask questions on means of following trade on stocks listed on the REIT board of the NSE. About a month ago I bought a sizeable quantity of updcreits at N5 because I saw on the NSE corporate disclosure that the will pay about 62k dividend in November. My stockbrokers say they do not know how I can follow trade in the stock online realtime. You recently asked question about the stock hence my contacting you. My question is whether you know how I can follow trade in the stock o line as I want to sell immediately I qualify for dividend. The stock is updcreit, not updc. Having just registered am not yet allowed to post on nsepa. You may also help me post the query on Nl too. Thanks. Bamofi 1

So sorry about your health. I pray that total healing be your portion. Thanks for finding time to post this on my behalf. I hope members who hold REITS stocks can still give me information on how they follow trades in those stocks. I subsequently discovered that Updcreit and other reits are listed under NSE Reits board which does not show bids or offers and you cannot buy or sell on the board like we do on equity board. It is all so dark. I wish members who have experience about reits can advise me on how to dispose of my holdings in the updcreit even at a discount as my brokers have been unable to sell. Once again, get well my brother.

RabbiDoracle:
You are still on paid employment?

stone?

DeRuggedProf:
Who can explain to me why I don't like AIICO?
Cant understand myself here.

You are not alone. There is widespread apathy for insurance stocks. Volatile profits and they are usually the first to succumb during market downturn.

onegentleguy:
Suddenly the oversupply of DSR shares(over 8M offer to less than a 500k bid @ the time of I put out the post above) has now disappeared !!
A similar thing is playing out in UA**, FC**, AI***, UB* and TR*******

Is alright.

I have been a silent reader for many years who registered recently. I want to thank you for your many cogent analyses of stocks and recommendations which you present unequivocally and without ambiguity. I must confess that I have made money from following some of your recommendations which I acted on after carrying out my own due diligence. Thanks again, stay blessed.

RabbiDoracle:
Even at N5, it is a strong buy!

If it falls below, buy without pity/regret/fear

It is at multi year low. More than 10 year low.

In fact somersault into the stock now!

Sir, are you speaking in parables or seriously having regards to the last result?

Mcy56:
Hold your ccnn.......but watch out sha.

Thanks sis, please can you elaborate a bit on the hold stand.

kryptem:
Bosses in the house, I just need some insights or reviews kind of.
I have read about Lead Capital Security and Investment Ltd. Has anyone had experience with them and their capabilities, reliability and effectiveness?

My intent is to use them for some Investments. Any insight?
Thanks!

LeadCapital is quite efficient and reliable a d customer service is good, I been with them for more than five years. Major reservations are that their online portal is not really real time and their commission is not the lowest. if your plan is to trade often these two issues are vital. For a trader Morgan is better.

DeRuggedProf:
33.9 Billion OS... They will always need JB cranes to lift the share price... Convert to cash into GTB, UBA, FCMB, FIDELITY, FMN. Then go to bed. CP, Oracle, OGG, FXUSER, BBM will tell you when to sell. After the short rally you saw, there will be total eclipse.....

Thanks.

phemmie06:
CardinalStone Research,

CCNN and Obu Cement merger update: Excerpts from the scheme of merger

Cement Company of Northern Nigeria (CCNN) and Obu Cement Company Plc (Obu) have released a scheme of merger document for their impending business combination.

According to the document, Obu’s 40 million ordinary shares of 50 kobo each will be reconstructed to 20.7 billion shares of 50 kobo each of the enlarged entity. This represents a 1 for 518 share conversion ratio. On the other hand, CCNN’s shareholders will be accorded 1 share of the enlarged entity for each CCNN share owned. Thus, the outstanding shares of the enlarged entity would comprise the 13.1 billion ordinary CCNN shares currently available and the potentially reconstructed N20.7 billion new shares in favour of the 40 million ordinary shares of Obu. The implied 33.9 billion shares of the enlarged entity would be 61.2% owned by shareholders of Obu and 38.8% owned by shareholders of CCNN. On adjusting to reflect BUA Group’s 87.4% stake in CCNN, minority stake in the proposed entity is likely to be closer to 11.0% (3.7 billion shares).

Valuation of current CCNN shares.

Going by the scheme document, the total value of shares to be issued for the 13.1 billion shares owned by the scheme shareholders (i.e. CCNN shareholders) is N460.0 billion. This implies that the transaction values CCNN at N35.11 per share, compared to its current market price of N16.40 and our FY’19E BVPS of N25.81. The valuation is also at a significant premium to our 12-month target price of N12.97—which does not capture the proposed addition of the 3.0mtpa Kalambaina line 2.

Based on the provided proforma, the enlarged entity would have had ROE and ROA of 15.3% and 10.9% respectively in FY’18 compared to 1.7% and 1.6% respectively for CCNN. Although the estimated ROE and ROA of the proposed entity are biased by a N26.8 billion tax credit, they would still have approximated 9.0% and 6.3% respectively.

Other key information.
1. The enlarged entity would have an 8.0mtpa cement capacity, comprising CCNN’s 2mtpa capacity and Obu’s 6mtpa plant in Okpella, Edo state. This compares to Lafarge Nigeria’s 10.5mtpa installed capacity
2. If approved, the merger will see Obu absorb all CCNN’s assets, liabilities, and undertakings
3. The deal will also lead to the delisting of CCNN from the Nigerian Stock Exchange and listing of the enlarged entity on 8 January 2020
4. This deal is strictly a share for share transaction. No cash consideration is involved
5. This transaction is subject to the approval of shareholders and court sanction.

https://trwstockbrokers./2019/11/07/company-update-ccnn-and-obu-cement-merger-update-excerpts-from-the-scheme-of-merger/

I will be happy if the gurus can give their views on the proposed takeover of ccnn by obu cement. Is Uchetoba right when he said the shareholders of ccnn are about to be shortchanged? Waiting for guidance as I am exposed to ccnn. Thanks