₦airaland Forum

Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.

This is according to the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.

The growth rate represents an improvement from the 3.76 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, signalling a stronger year-end performance.

The latest data also shows improved contributions from agriculture, industry, and oil, while the services sector retained its position as the dominant driver of output.

What the data is saying
The NBS report shows broad-based expansion across key sectors of the economy in Q4 2025.

Growth was supported by stronger performances in agriculture, industry, oil, and non-oil activities compared to the same period in 2024.

Real GDP grew by 4.07 per cent in Q4 2025, up from 3.76 per cent in Q4 2024, while full-year growth stood at 3.87 per cent compared to 3.38 per cent in 2024.

Agriculture expanded by 4.00 per cent, industry by 3.88 per cent, and services by 4.15 per cent, with services accounting for 55.92 per cent of total GDP in the quarter.

In nominal terms, GDP stood at N122.81 trillion, marking a 17.55 per cent increase from N104.48 trillion recorded in Q4 2024.

Average daily crude oil production was 1.58 million barrels per day, higher than 1.54 million barrels per day in Q4 2024 but below 1.64 million barrels per day in Q3 2025.

Overall, the figures indicate a steady improvement in economic performance compared to the previous year, despite mixed quarter-on-quarter outcomes.

More Insights
The oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 6.79 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2025, reflecting a 4.71 percentage point increase from the 2.08 per cent posted in Q4 2024. It also improved by 0.95 percentage points compared to Q3 2025.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, the oil sector contracted by 6.30 per cent in Q4 2025.
For the full year, oil sector growth stood at 8.50 per cent, higher than the 5.54 per cent recorded in 2024.
The oil sector contributed 2.87 per cent to total real GDP in Q4 2025, compared to 2.80 per cent in Q4 2024 and 3.44 per cent in Q3 2025.

Overall, the sector accounted for 3.53 per cent of GDP in 2025, slightly higher than 3.38 per cent in 2024.
The non-oil sector continued to anchor the economy, growing by 3.99 per cent in real terms in Q4 2025, compared to 3.80 per cent in Q4 2024 and 3.91 per cent in Q3 2025. Growth was driven by crop production, telecommunications, real estate, trade, financial institutions, construction, road transport, and food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing.

In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 97.13 per cent to GDP in Q4 2025 and 96.47 per cent for the full year, underscoring its dominant role in economic activity.

What you should know
Global institutions have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s growth trajectory following the latest GDP data. Updated forecasts suggest sustained expansion over the medium term.

The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026.

The World Bank has maintained its 4.4 per cent growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027.

The World Bank upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate to 4.4 per cent from 3.7 per cent projected in June 2025.
These projections signal confidence in Nigeria’s medium-term prospects, even as structural and macroeconomic challenges remain.

pic.twitter.com/CEqP7IC59q This election has exposed the hypocrisy of people who go about buying corn and groundnut

— Seyi Afolayan (@africainfostat) February 23, 2026

pic.twitter.com/A2yanmNrtW Peter Obi can never win Tinubu

— Seyi Afolayan (@africainfostat) February 23, 2026

The Gafere community in the Kuje Area Council celebrates with Hon. Samuel Danjuma, demonstrating that the voice of the people has been heard through the APC victory.
APC is here to stay.

The Gafere community in the Kuje Area Council celebrates with Hon. Samuel Danjuma, demonstrating that the voice of the people has been heard through the APC victory.
APC is here to stay. pic.twitter.com/48sf10Fimv

— Dr. Gaza Kure (@realgazakure) February 23, 2026

pic.twitter.com/TfVR6wwKF6 Fracas broke out at ADC town hall meeting over their loss at the FCT Election

— Seyi Afolayan (@africainfostat) February 21, 2026

Ofunaofu:
Séun and Mods, why is this Monika allowed to go rogue and create threads spreading fake news?

Fracas broke out at ADC town hall meeting over their loss at the FCT Election pic.twitter.com/LqRGa4crxG

— Ayekooto (@DeeOneAyekooto) February 21, 2026

blamingthedevil:
FCT COUNCIL POLLS : TALLY OF RESULTS IN FOUR COUNCILS

Amac- APC leading
Kuje- APC leading PDP with small margin
Kwali- APC leading
Abaji- APC leading
Gwagwalada- PDP leading with smallest margin
Bwari- APC leading with wide margin

Source: APC Situation Room

Ofunaofu:
Don’t post fake results emanating from the APC situation room.

Nigerians asked for the electronic transmission of election results from polling units to be made mandatory. The Tinubu-led APC regime said no, citing insecurity in nine states, a national grid shutdown, and network issues. Yet here they are, setting up situation rooms with internet access to collate what exactly?

Obviously, to generate fake results and spread them around to create confusion.

Thunder 🔥⚡🔥 all of una there

blamingthedevil:
FCT COUNCIL POLLS : TALLY OF RESULTS IN FOUR COUNCILS

Amac- APC leading
Kuje- APC leading PDP with small margin
Kwali- APC leading
Abaji- APC leading
Gwagwalada- PDP leading with smallest margin
Bwari- APC leading with wide margin

Source: APC Situation Room

seunowa:
Show your original results

AMINDA:
Fake news. Collation still ongoing.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/02/adc-in-early-lead-in-kubwa-bwari-area-council-polling-units/

Cherrybae:
The truth is that it is only in AMAC that ADC can get reasonable votes.

In other councils, nothing for ADC.

Peter can now see that elections is strategy and grassroot mobilization.

Elections are not won in social media. Social media hype is making Obi feel he can mobilize votes.

Results from Kabusa PU 011 (Kabusa Primary School) vote count:

APC: 115
ADC: 18
PDP: 6
SDP: 4
APGA: 2
NNPP: 2
ADP: 1 vote
Invalid: 9

pic.twitter.com/FNwoGHwURw

— High Chief Lawrence Igbins Okoro (@HighChiefOkoro) February 21, 2026

blamingthedevil:
FCT COUNCIL POLLS : TALLY OF RESULTS IN FOUR COUNCILS

Amac- APC leading
Kuje- PDP leading with small margin
Kwali- APC leading
Abaji- APC leading
Gwagwalada- PDP leading with smallest margin
Bwari- APC leading with wide margin

Source: APC Situation Room

chatinent:
As usual, no evidence. Just figures. When real sheets start dropping, it'll be rigged.

blamingthedevil:
FCT COUNCIL POLLS : TALLY OF RESULTS IN FOUR COUNCILS

Amac- APC leading
Kuje- APC leading PDP with small margin
Kwali- APC leading PDP not with wide margin
Abaji- APC leading
Gwagwalada- PDP leading with smallest margin
Bwari- APC leading with wide margin

Victims of election violence:
North West — 164 victims
South East — 152
South West — 45
South South — 25
North Central — 12
North East — 3

Total victims — 401

In 2023, two regions alone accounted for nearly 80% of all election violence victims in Nigeria.

Taking out these two regions would see Nigeria's total election violence victims drop massively from 401 to just 85.

This underscores that election violence was not evenly distributed across the country, but heavily localized in just two geopolitical zones.

#Statisense
(Nigeria Risk Index)

The Rivers State House of Assembly has halted the impeachment proceedings against Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the Deputy Governor, Ngozi Odu, following President Bola Tinubu’s intervention.

The House moved the motion to halt the impeachment process on Thursday at its resumed sitting in Port Harcourt, the state capital.

PUNCH Online had reported that during its first sitting in 2026, the House had commenced impeachment proceedings against Fubara and his deputy over alleged gross misconduct, including the demolition of the state assembly complex and spending without legislative approval, among other charges.

Kalashnikov49:
When are you also jailing Atiku?

E hard you?

President Bola Tinubu has signed an Executive Order mandating the direct remittance of all oil and gas revenues to the Federation Account, effectively bypassing deductions and retentions previously allowed under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021.

The order, signed on February 13, 2026, and gazetted immediately, aims to restore full constitutional revenue entitlements to the federal, state, and local governments by eliminating what the presidency describes as excessive and duplicative deductions that have significantly reduced inflows to the Federation Account.

Key provisions of the Executive Order include:

- Ending NNPC Limited’s 30% management fee on Profit Oil and Profit Gas from Production Sharing Contracts, Profit Sharing Contracts, and Risk Service Contracts. The government argues that the existing 20% profit retention for working capital and investments already covers NNPC’s operational needs.

- Abolishing NNPC’s 30% retention for the Frontier Exploration Fund under Sections 9(4) and (5) of the PIA. All such funds must now be transferred directly to the Federation Account, preventing the accumulation of large idle balances for speculative exploration.

- Requiring operators and contractors under production sharing arrangements to pay Royalty Oil, Tax Oil, Profit Oil, Profit Gas, and all other government entitlements directly to the Federation Account starting February 13, 2026.

- Suspending payments of gas flare penalties into the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF). All future penalties will go to the Federation Account, with existing MDGIF expenditures required to comply fully with public procurement laws.

The presidency stated that the current PIA framework has allowed deductions that “far exceed global norms” and divert more than two-thirds of potential revenues away from the Federation Account. The declining net oil revenue inflows are largely attributed to these structures and fragmented oversight.

President Tinubu also highlighted structural concerns with NNPC Limited continuing to act as both concessionaire and commercial operator under Production Sharing Contracts, which he said creates competitive distortions and hinders the company’s transition to a fully commercial entity as intended by the PIA.

To implement the reforms, the President has approved:

- The constitution of a joint project team, with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) serving as the interface for integrated upstream and midstream operations.

- An implementation committee chaired by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, and including the Attorney-General, Minister of Budget and National Planning, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Special Adviser to the President on Energy, and the Director-General of the Budget Office.

Latest update from the Katsina–Kano highway, another major infrastructural project in the Northern part of the country by President Tinubu’s administration.

The North must remember!#TinubuSaiGodiya pic.twitter.com/9eq9wcThik

— Wale Adedayo 🌍🔰 (@Mario9jaa) February 18, 2026