₦airaland Forum

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Omo all your thread is about Obi

First, it is not true that all my threads are about Obi.

But even if they were, so what?

Obidients write about Tinubu morning, afternoon and night. They write about Atiku, Buhari, Wike, Soludo, Umahi, INEC, judiciary and everybody else once it suits their agenda.

Nobody calls that obsession.

But the moment Obi is scrutinised, suddenly we are told the topic is too much. 😂

My brother, Peter Obi is a presidential candidate. His supporters present him as a messiah, a saint, a genius and the only man who can save Nigeria.

Such a man deserves scrutiny.

If you sell a politician as Nigeria’s political redeemer, do not complain when people open the package and inspect the product.

And please, “all your threads are about Obi” is not a rebuttal.

It is what people say when they cannot answer the substance.

As our elders say, when the yam is too hot, the eater starts blaming the plate.

TokoEkambi:
Wail and gnash teeth for losing elections? Term people terrorists when they're against them, and term the same patriots the moment they support their agulu fraud? Should I continue?

Exactly.

That is one of the defining traits I highlighted in the article—principles that change with convenience.

The same people who would have screamed “terrorist sponsor!” if Kwankwaso moved near APC are now suddenly comfortable packaging him as a democratic ally because he may help Obi.

That is the Obidient contradiction.

Yesterday: “Anyone linked to this kind of allegation is evil.”

Today: “Kwankwaso is a strategic partner.”

Their morality is like rechargeable lamp — it only shines when Obi is plugged in. 😂

Here are more examples:

They called old politicians “structures of criminality,” until Obi needed old politicians.

They condemned decamping, until their own people began shopping for platforms.

They shout “rule of law,” until a judgment goes against them.

They call opponents tribalists, then demand Igbo president as entitlement.

For many of them, the principle is simple:

If it helps Obi, sanctify it.

If it hurts Obi, demonise it.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You are the one missing the point,in 2023 Soludo was not neutral ,he supported tinubu and couldn't deliver 25percent for tinubu in Anambra,in 2027 it would be worse cos of tinubu dismay performance.

You are wrong on the facts.

In 2023, Soludo did not openly campaign for Tinubu in Anambra. APGA had its own presidential candidate.

What Soludo did was challenge Obi’s claims, including the famous statement that Obi’s touted investments in Anambra were “worth next to nothing.” That is not the same thing as deploying APGA structure for Tinubu.

And let us remember what happened after the presidential election. Obidients boasted that they would punish Soludo and APGA in the State Assembly election. What happened? APGA won 17 of 30 seats, LP won 8, YPP 3, PDP 2. In other words, Soludo survived the so-called Obi tsunami barely weeks after Obi swept the presidential vote in the same anambra.

So the 2027 argument is simple: this time, Soludo is openly closer to Tinubu and can actively deploy APGA’s local machinery against another 95% Obi landslide.

Tinubu does not need to win Anambra.

He only needs Soludo to reduce Obi’s margin.

That is the arithmetic you keep dodging.

Kukutente23:
CharlesCNG the CNG expert who only writes about Obi
Is Obi the name or model of a CNG device?

The article is about Obi's electoral performance.

If discussing a politician now means obsession, then by that standard Obidients are Tinubu's biggest fan club.

You can't answer the article, so you've started reviewing my username.

When the substance is too hot, some people attack the label on the bottle.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You are talking about my Anambra State that we always vote Apga for Governor and Obi for President ,when did many people say Soludo candidates will be swept by Obi? Stop talking nonsense

You are still missing the point.

Yes, Anambra has often voted APGA for governor and Obi for president.

But 2027 is not 2023.

The difference this time is that Soludo is no longer neutral in the presidential arithmetic.

He has drawn a clear line. Obi campaigned against Soludo’s interest by backing George Moghalu of LP in 2025, and Soludo’s APGA structure crushed LP 21–0.

So 2027 may well be payback time.

Soludo does not need to make Tinubu win Anambra. He only needs to convince enough APGA voters that voting Obi is emotional loyalty, while voting Tinubu is strategic access, inclusion and development for Anambra.

That is the argument.

Bianca Ojukwu’s ministerial appointment also matters politically. It signals inclusion. Soludo’s closeness to Tinubu matters. His alignment with Tinubu’s economic thinking matters. His ability to mobilise APGA structures matters.

You keep saying “Anambra people vote APGA for governor and Obi for president” as if politics is frozen in 2023.

Politics moves.

Interests change.

Alliances shift.

And Soludo now has both motive and machinery.

The real question remains:

Can Obi repeat 95% in Anambra when Soludo is actively working against that landslide?

That is the article.

Not whether Obi is popular.

Not whether Tinubu will win Anambra.

But whether Soludo can reduce Obi’s margin.

And if you understand electoral arithmetic, you will know that even a reduction to 70–75% is already a political wound.

Svoboda:
Don't you think you're assuming a bit too much and too hastily, if you already concluded that I'm an obedient just for disagreeing with you? I also actually believe you're the one that has some comprehension deficit, unless you can point out where I explicitly asserted that you implied Obi was going to lose to Soludos structure in Anambra.

In actual fact, I will continue to insist that you aren't well acquainted with Anambra politics. It's so obvious when you keep regurgitating labour party's electoral outcome in the last guber election in Anambra, and the fact that Obi lost his unit to apga as well. Not just that. That labour party also lost 21-0, as if Obi was on the ballot in 2025, as if Soludo worked for Obi in 2023 when he won 95% of the votes.

I can't really say more than I have already. Do have a good night.

Fair enough. If I wrongly called you an Obidient, I withdraw that part.

But you know how it is: if it quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck and dodges the central point like an Obidient, confusion can happen. 😁
Now to the substance.

I never said Soludo worked for Obi in 2023. In fact, APGA had its own presidential candidate. The point is that 2027 will be different because Soludo has openly indicated alignment with Tinubu and can deploy APGA’s local structure in a direction that was not available to Tinubu in 2023.

Second, nobody said Obi was on the ballot in the 2025 governorship election.

But Obi supported and campaigned for George Moghalu, the Labour Party candidate.

If Obi’s endorsement is politically powerful, it should have moved something. Instead, LP was crushed 21–0, and even lost Obi’s polling unit.

So unless you are saying Obi’s endorsement is worthless, the result is relevant.

The article’s question remains simple:

Can Soludo reduce Obi’s 2023 Anambra margin from 95%?

Not whether Obi will lose Anambra.

Not whether Soludo defeated Obi personally.

Just whether Soludo’s formidable APGA structure can deny obi another landslide in 2027.

That is the argument. Everything else is decoration.

adenigga:
SOURCE



Barau Jibrin
Deputy Senate President

The State Police Bill in Plain English: What Every Nigerian Should Know. by CharlesCNG

The recently passed constitutional amendment does **not** simply hand the police over to governors. It creates a framework with checks and balances designed to improve security while limiting abuse. Here are its major provisions in plain language:

1. Nigeria will have two police systems.

Instead of replacing the Nigeria Police Force, the bill creates **Federal Police and State Police** operating side by side. The Federal Police will continue to exist.

2. States are not forced to create state police

Each state must first pass its own law before establishing a state police service. No state police comes into existence automatically.

3. National minimum standards remain

A state cannot simply create any police force it likes. Every state police must satisfy national standards prescribed by the National Assembly before becoming operational.

4. Governors do not [/b]appoint commissioners alone

A State Commissioner of Police is [b]appointed by the governor on the advice of the Nigeria Police Council and must also be confirmed by the State House of Assembly.

5. Commissioners can reject unlawful orders

If a governor issues an order the Commissioner believes is unlawful or contrary to professional policing standards, the Commissioner may refer the matter to the Nigeria Police Council, whose decision is final. This is one of the bill's strongest safeguards against political abuse.

6. Federal Police remain responsible for national crimes

The Federal Police will continue to handle terrorism, interstate crimes, organised crime, national security matters and policing in the FCT. State Police focus mainly on law and order within their states.

7. Abuja cannot interfere at will

Federal intervention in a state's policing is limited to exceptional situations such as a total breakdown of law and order, where the governor requests assistance, or where a state police force becomes unable to function.

8. Existing policing continues until a state is ready

If a state has not established its own police service, the Federal Police will continue to perform all policing functions there.

9. The bill is not yet the final law

Because it is a constitutional amendment, it must still be approved[b] by at least 24 State Houses of Assembly [/b]before it can be presented for presidential assent and become part of the Constitution.

10. The objective is decentralisation, not politicisation

The philosophy behind the bill is simple: security challenges differ across Nigeria. Local policing can improve intelligence gathering and response time, while constitutional safeguards are intended to prevent governors from turning state police into personal political armies. Whether those safeguards prove sufficient will depend on implementation as much as legislation.

adenigga:
SOURCE



Barau Jibrin
Deputy Senate President

Plateau and State Police: When Security Must Understand the Soil

If there is any state that illustrates the urgency of state police, it is Plateau.

Plateau’s security crisis is not ordinary crime alone. It is a complex mix of farmer-herder conflict, land disputes, reprisal attacks, communal tension, rural banditry and identity politics.

A centralised police command sitting far away cannot fully understand the delicate terrain of Barkin Ladi, Bokkos, Mangu, Riyom or Bassa the way locally rooted security officers would.

State police would allow Plateau to build a force that understands local languages, village boundaries, grazing routes, flashpoints, family networks and early warning signals.

That matters.

Many attacks do not happen without warning. Communities often hear rumours, notice movement and sense danger before violence erupts. But intelligence is useless when response is slow or disconnected.

For Plateau, state police should not be about giving governors a political weapon. It should be about building a professional, locally informed security layer with clear safeguards, federal oversight and community accountability.

The Federal Police should still handle terrorism, arms trafficking and inter-state crimes. But Plateau needs officers who know the ground before the ground catches fire.

Insecurity is local before it becomes national.

And Plateau has paid too much in blood for Nigeria to continue pretending that one central police structure can understand every village, every route and every conflict.

State police is not a magic wand.

But for Plateau, it may be the missing first responder.

yemre:
All in 3 years! The man has tried abeg. He hit the ground running like he promised and there he is!

State Police: Could This Become Tinubu’s Greatest Legacy?

If state police finally becomes law under President Tinubu, it may rank among his most historic achievements.

For decades, Nigerians have complained about insecurity while operating a policing system too centralised for a country of over 200 million people.

Kidnapping, banditry, communal violence and rural attacks are often local in origin, yet security response is controlled from afar.

That contradiction has cost lives.

What makes this moment important is not merely that the National Assembly is moving the bill forward. It is that a broad consensus is forming around an idea once considered politically dangerous.

Governors want it.

Many lawmakers support it.

Security realities now demand it.

And the bill attempts to answer the biggest fear: governors’ abuse of police powers.

If Tinubu can shepherd this reform through the National Assembly, secure the approval of at least 24 state legislatures, and help build safeguards against political misuse, he would have achieved something previous administrations discussed but failed to deliver.

State police will not solve insecurity overnight.

But it could transform Nigeria’s security architecture by bringing intelligence, response and accountability closer to communities.

Subsidy removal may define Tinubu’s economic courage.

Local government autonomy may define his federalist instinct.

But state police may become the reform that most directly touches the safety of ordinary Nigerians.

If done properly, it will not just be a policy win.

It will be a legacy.

OredoPikin:
Someone quoted my comment and i replied based on comments of the person
I did not reply to your topic but to the person comments
I hope that sink

Now back to ur imagination again🤣
Obi will be judged by his performance of 14yrs ago that affected only Anambrans in whichever way that suite your agenda,
Meanwhile Tinubu will not be judged by his performance that all Nigerians are experiencing now 🤣
Make it make sense pls

I dont have Obi manifesto when he was seeking for governor of Anambra
I dont know what he promised them.
But i know he did alot far better than any governor ever to govern a Nigeria state since the coming of the 4th republic
The records are there for everyone to see.

Now here is Tinubu that promised me directly 247 electricity with a caveat that if he doesn't do it, i should not vote him again.
So i will leave Tinubu promise he made to me and go and hold Obi for his promises to Anambran 23yrs ago that I am not even aware of🤣
Again
wetin una dey smoke
See logic like Benin ore road 😂

You are still debating an article that nobody wrote.

The article was not titled "Why Tinubu Has Achieved 24/7 Electricity."

The article was titled "The Obi Wave: From 2023 Tsunami To Electoral Drizzle."

It examined one question:

Why has the electoral momentum of 2023 not translated into subsequent election victories?

Notice how you have spent several paragraphs discussing Tinubu, electricity, Benin-Ore Road and what you personally will do in 2027.

Not one sentence answering the question raised in the article. 😁

As for Obi's Anambra performance, you accidentally prove my point.

If Obi was such an electoral superweapon, why couldn't Labour Party convert that goodwill into governorship victories, legislative dominance or sustained electoral success after 2023?

That is the issue.

And nobody said Tinubu should not be judged.

Judge him by all means.

But if you want to discuss Tinubu's performance, start a thread on Tinubu's performance.

Don't enter a discussion about Obi's electoral decline and then spend your entire time discussing electricity.

That is like attending a wedding and delivering a speech about aviation fuel.

And please, leave Benin-Ore Road alone.

That road has suffered enough without being compared to your logic.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Nobody takes you serious,Obidients only vote when Obi is on the ballot,what is bye elections,who cares about that.How many bye elections did Lp win before 2023.

"Nobody takes you serious" says the man who keeps showing up under every thread.

My brother, if nobody takes me serious, why are you doing compulsory attendance?

And thank you for finally admitting one of the central points of the article:

"Obidients only vote when Obi is on the ballot."

Exactly.

That is another way of saying the movement has struggled to develop durable political structure beyond one man.

As for bye-elections, governorship elections and off-cycle elections, political analysts all over the world use them to measure shifts in voter sentiment after general elections.

You may not care about them.

Politicians do.

Parties do.

Serious analysts do.

And one more thing: Obidients are not actually the target audience of my write-ups.

The target audience is the undecided voter, the neutral observer and the politically curious.

You people are simply the unpaid entertainment section.

But rest assured, whenever you bring this level of idiocy into the comments, I will continue to respond accordingly. 😁

OredoPikin:
After una done smoke that thing finish
Una go just dey hallucinate
Epele
Decider of Christians
Wait till campaign start

😂 My brother, the article contained election results.

Your rebuttal contains smoke, hallucinations and campaign season.

One of us brought figures.

The other brought incense.

And "wait till campaign start" is not an argument. It is a prayer point.

The article is about what voters have already done since 2023, not what you hope they will do in 2027.

When campaign starts, we will analyse that too.

For now, try responding to the results on the ground instead of the visions in your head. 😂

DatNiggaDaz:


This is how his pains starts it.

He wakes up suddenly shockingly because he saw his nightmare in his dreams. He start wrting meaninglezz epistles and drop emil000kaan information in the data boiz WhatsApp coven, a coven a particular Mod is a top member

The Mod will hide the thread so that the data boiz of the faaake certttifficcate hollldderr after receiving his information, will fly to the thread and articulate their lies and propaganda against their nightmare PO

After changing their monikers to comment on the FP, the Mod will then push it to the FP

I like how he is creating inconsequential threads about PO. It shows the level of torment he gets from his nightmare

Thank you for another contribution that carefully avoids the subject of the article.

The article contained election results, vote figures, governorship outcomes and bye-election data.

Your rebuttal contains dreams, nightmares, WhatsApp covens, secret societies, mods, monikers and conspiracy theories.

One of us is discussing politics.

The other is auditioning for a Nollywood mystery series. 😁

And I always laugh when Obidients say "Obi is your nightmare."

The article is about Obi's electoral performance.

If discussing a politician makes him a nightmare, then by that logic Tinubu must be the chief nightmare of Obidients because some of you discuss him morning, afternoon and night.

Most importantly, notice that after all the drama, you still did not address the central question:

Why has the Obi wave struggled to reproduce its 2023 momentum in subsequent elections?

That is the article.

Everything else is just special effects.

As our elders say, when a man cannot answer the question, he starts reviewing the microphone.

OredoPikin:
🤣🤣
U are here again.

I repeat
only Tinubu performance would have silenced any opposition
Just that 247 electricity he boldly promise would have rendered the opposition to nothing
Every other thing u are saying is an imagination from your head.

Just imagine me will go and vote Tinubu because someone abused me🤣
Not because Obi became president and he failed to deliver on his promises😏
Omo
It means I wasted my 5yrs in Uniben.
Wasted 2yrs in ICC, wasted 1yr in western boys high schooland wasted good 3years in Niger college.
God forbid bad thing

U nor dey reason like Edo person sha.
So i am not surprised

My brother, once again, you are debating an article that exists only in your imagination. 😁

The article is titled "The Obi Wave: From 2023 Tsunami To Electoral Drizzle."

It is about one question:

Has the Obi wave translated into electoral victories after 2023?

The evidence examined was Edo, Ondo, Anambra and the bye-elections.

Your response?

"Tinubu should have given us 24/7 electricity."

Whether that is true or false is a completely different discussion.

The article was not titled **"Tinubu's Performance Review."**

It was about the electoral strength of the Obi movement after 2023.

You say everything else is imagination.

Interesting.

Are the Anambra results imagination?

Was LP's 10,000-plus votes in the governorship election imagination?

Were the Edo and Ondo results imagination?

Those are election results, not imagination.

And nobody said you should vote Tinubu because somebody abused you.

The point was that constantly insulting neutrals is a terrible way to build a national coalition.

If five years in UNIBEN, two years in ICC and three years elsewhere taught you anything, it should be the difference between the topic under discussion and the topic you wish was under discussion. 😂

The question remains:

Why has the Obi wave struggled to reproduce its 2023 momentum in actual elections?

That is the article.

Try answering it.

Chibuezem:
wait did Peter Obi contest for Anambra governorship against soludo?

Wait, did I say Peter Obi contested against Soludo?

You see the problem?

The article is about whether Soludo's political structure can reduce Obi's presidential margin in 2027, not whether Obi contested the governorship election.

That's like reading a discussion about climate and asking, "Wait, did the weather contest the election?"

My brother, try reading the article before responding to it. 😁

Wizardslayer:
Soludo that use to sing Peter Obi's praise just like nyesom wike, now suddenly started attacking him.

What APC can not do and buy over doesn't exist.

😂 The Obidient solution to every disagreement:

"If he disagrees with Obi, APC must have bought him."

So Soludo, an elected governor with his own political ambitions, intellectual views and party interests, is incapable of forming an independent opinion?

Interesting.

By that logic, anyone who praises Obi is principled, while anyone who criticizes Obi has been bought.

That is not political analysis.

That is cult thinking.

And once again, you have dodged the article.

The question was not whether Soludo likes Obi.

The question was whether Soludo can reduce Obi's 2023 landslide margin.

Try answering that one. 😁

Solsix:
Peter obi as popular as he is cannot influence governorship election, but it's a different ball game when he's on the ballot. Even APC member will vote him. They never born anybody wey go defeat Peter Obi in Anambra. Another landslide waiting

My brother, once again, you are arguing against an article that exists only in your head. 😁

The article did not ask whether Peter Obi can win Anambra.

The article did not ask whether Obi is popular in Anambra.

The article did not ask whether APC members may vote for him.

The article asked a much narrower question:

**Can Obi still reproduce the 95% landslide he achieved in 2023, or can Soludo reduce that margin?**

That is the entire debate.

You have answered a different question.

In fact, your response actually concedes the article's main point.

You admit that Obi's popularity does not automatically transfer to governorship elections.

Exactly.

That is what the article is exploring: the limits of personal popularity when confronted by political structure.

And please spare us the "they never born anybody" language. 😂

Political history is littered with people who were supposedly unbeatable until they met reality.

The same Nigerians who once said nobody could defeat Jonathan said it about Buhari.

The same people who said nobody could defeat PDP watched APC emerge.

Politics is not religion.

No politician is invincible.

The question remains simple:

If Obi got about 95% in 2023, does he get 95% again in 2027?

That is the question.

Notice how you still have not answered it.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Even soludo knows that tinubu won't even get 25percent in Anambra,you people think Gov will come and force people to vote apc or Anambra would sell their votes for tinubu.You don't know Anambra State .

😂 My brother, once again, you are arguing against an article you have not properly read.

The article did not say Soludo will force anybody to vote APC.

The article did not say Anambra people will sell their votes.

The article did not even say Tinubu will win Anambra.

You keep fighting arguments that exist only in your imagination.

The actual argument was simple:

Can Soludo reduce Obi's 2023 margin?

That is all.

You say Tinubu cannot get 25%.

Interesting prediction.

But politics is not conducted by prophecy. It is conducted by votes, structures and changing realities.

In 2023, many people also said Soludo's candidate would be swept away because Anambra belonged to Obi.

Then Labour Party scored barely over 10,000 votes in the governorship election while Soludo swept all 21 LGAs.

Reality has a nasty habit of embarrassing certainty.

And by the way, whenever someone says, "You don't know Anambra," I smile.

Because that is usually what people say when they have run out of arguments and want geography to do the debating for them. 😁

My brother, I know enough about Anambra to know one thing:

95% is harder to repeat than it is to achieve.

That is the entire point of the article.

Try responding to that point instead of debating predictions nobody made.

Svoboda:
You don't know how Anambra politics works and you shouldn't even own an opinion on what you clearly lack knowledge of. What structure is Soludo deploying against Obi? Go and check presidential election results v gov elections results in Anambra, then you'd observe that you're thriving on warped fantasy and not reality.

😂 My brother, thank you for the lecture on Anambra politics.

Unfortunately, your response suffers from the same problem I highlighted: you did not properly read what you are responding to.

The article did not say Soludo has already defeated Obi.

The article did not say Tinubu will win Anambra.

The article did not even say Obi will lose Anambra.

The article made a much narrower and more sophisticated argument: **that Soludo's mission is to reduce Obi's 2023 landslide margin.**

There is a difference.

Perhaps the distinction was too deep for your comprehension.

You ask what structure Soludo is deploying.

Interesting question.

The same structure that just won all 21 LGAs in the governorship election while Labour Party managed barely over 10,000 votes statewide.

The article was analysing whether that structure can affect Obi's presidential margin.

You responded as if the article predicted Obi would come fourth in Anambra. 😂

As for "you shouldn't own an opinion," that is always my favourite Obidient argument.

When facts become uncomfortable, appoint yourself gatekeeper of who may think.

opinions are free.

Comprehension is the scarce commodity.

Read the article again.

This time slowly.

You may discover you are arguing against a version of the article that exists only in your head.

AMINDA:
You mean like what Seyi Makinde is doing to Tinubu in Oyo? You applaud the purported Soludo-Obi rivalry in glee but call Seyi Makinde a betrayer for not supporting Tinubu, even though they are in different parties. In your warped logic, all Yorubas should support Tinubu but not all Igbos should support Obi.

😂 My brother, thank you for demonstrating another classic Obidient debating technique: arguing with a ghost.

Please point me to where in the article I mentioned Seyi Makinde.

Point me to where I mentioned Oyo State.

Point me to where I said all Yorubas should support Tinubu.

Take your time. I'll wait.

The article is titled "Anambra 2027: Soludo's Mission Is Not To Defeat Obi — But To Deny Him A Landslide."

It discusses Soludo, Obi, Anambra, electoral margins and the mathematics of 2027.

Your response is about Seyi Makinde, Oyo State, Yorubas and arguments that exist only in your imagination.

That is not a rebuttal.

That is a hallucination.

You are like a student who received an examination question on photosynthesis and submitted an essay on the English Premier League.

The question before you is simple:

Can Obi still secure the 95% dominance he achieved in Anambra in 2023?

Can Soludo reduce that margin?

Those are the issues raised in the article.

Everything else you introduced is intellectual smuggling.

Please respond to the article, not the voices in your head.
You Obidients are so laughingly predictable.You respond to write-ups you have not properly read, or issues you do not have an answer to.

But then again, you obidients are not really the target audience of my write-ups.

My target audience is the undecided, the observant, the politically curious and those still capable of separating facts from fandom.

You are merely helping them see the point more clearly.

slivertongue:
Moon slide will happen across Nigeria not only in Anambra. Hungry Nigerians will teach this calamitous administration a bitter lesson for destroying the economy.

My brother, this response shows you either did not read the article or did not understand it.

The article is not about whether Nigerians are hungry.

The article is about Anambra 2027 electoral arithmetic: whether Soludo can deny Obi the kind of 95% landslide he got in 2023.

That is the point.

You are responding with “Tinubu bad” to an argument about Soludo versus Obi in Anambra.

That is deflection.

Also, assumptions are not election results.

Everywhere in the world, analysts use bye-elections and off-cycle elections to test political mood after a general election. What voters actually do at polling units matters more than what angry people predict online.

You say Nigerians will teach APC a lesson.

Fine.

But recent elections have given us actual evidence, not prophecy.

Anambra showed Soludo crushing LP.

Ekiti showed APC winning massively.

Kano, Kebbi and Nasarawa showed APC still standing strongly in the North.

So the issue is simple:

Are we analysing real votes or just repeating social media anger?

Because hunger may trend online, but elections are counted at polling units.

And in Anambra 2027, the question remains:

Can Obi still command 95%, or will Soludo cut him down?

That is the article.

Try responding to it.

The Soludo–Obi political rivalry has become one of the clearest lessons in the difference between presidential emotion and local structure.

In 2023, Peter Obi swept Anambra in the presidential election, polling about 584,621 votes, roughly 95% of the state’s vote. It looked like the Obi wave had swallowed Anambra politics.

But governorship elections are different. They test party roots, local machinery, candidate strength and voter trust.

By the 2025 Anambra governorship election, Soludo had turned that reality into a political statement. INEC declared him winner after he polled 422,664 votes, defeating APC’s Nicholas Ukachukwu, who scored 99,445 votes, while Peter Obi’s Labour Party candidate, George Moghalu, managed only 10,576 votes. Soludo also won all 21 LGAs.

The humiliation went deeper. In Peter Obi’s own polling unit, Polling Unit 019, Agulu Ward 11, Labour Party lost. APC scored 73 votes, LP got 57, and APGA came third with 38.

Even Anaocha, Obi’s home LGA, went heavily for Soludo: APGA 20,118, APC 5,956, LP just 483.

Governor Soludo has publicly indicated his willingness to work with President Tinubu in 2027.

If he deploys even a fraction of the political machinery that produced his overwhelming re-election victory, the presidential arithmetic in Anambra could look very different in 2027.

In 2027, the real battle in Anambra will not simply be Tinubu versus Obi.

It will be Soludo versus Obi.

That is the strategic point many people are missing.

Tinubu does not need to win Anambra. He does not even need to come close.
All he needs is for Soludo to reduce Obi’s 2023 landslide from an overwhelming monopoly to a contested battlefield.

In 2023, Obi took about 95% of Anambra’s presidential vote. That was the high-water mark of the Obi wave.

If Soludo helps Tinubu secure even 20–25% of Anambra’s vote, that would be a strategic victory for APC.

Why?

Because Obi’s national mathematics depends on harvesting extraordinary margins from the South-East while hoping to remain competitive elsewhere.

Once Anambra drops from 95% to anything significantly lower, Obi’s aura of inevitability cracks.

The danger for Obi is not that Tinubu will defeat him in Anambra.

The danger is that Soludo will deny him a landslide.

That is why the 2027 contest in Anambra is personal, local and structural.

Obi will be fighting sentiment.

Soludo will be fighting with government, structure and performance.

And in politics, structure has a rude habit of waking sentiment from sleep.

mrvitalis:
If anyone should condem Obidient it’s definitely shouldn’t be APC supporters you have zero moral right to that effect

You still do worse today than Obidient

How can you criticize someone or a group you are worse than

Make it make sense

My brother, this is one of the strangest arguments I have seen. 😁

By your logic, only saints can criticize sinners.

So if a doctor smokes, he cannot warn people about lung cancer?

If a former thief condemns stealing, we should ignore him?

If a man slips on a banana peel, he loses the right to warn others about slippery floors?

You see how quickly the argument collapses.

The article was about Obidient behaviour.

Your response is: "But APC!"

That is not a rebuttal. That is intellectual hide-and-seek.

Even if I generously assume APC supporters are worse, how does that make the observations about Obidients false?

Did that suddenly make the abuse culture disappear?

Did it make the messiah complex vanish?

Did it make the intolerance go away?

You are arguing like a student caught cheating who responds by saying another student cheated more.

Fine.

The other student may be guilty too.

You are still guilty.

As our elders say, another man's headache does not cure your fever. 😂

The more I read some of these responses, the more convinced I become that the article touched a nerve.

Because instead of disproving it, many of you keep acting it out in real time.

aswani:
"He will clearly tell you Tinubu is a disappointment but I will still vote him because he is my tribe man"

The above uttered by your landlord is the same thing you are doing regarding Peter Obi. Why the hypocrisy?

By the way, Peter Obi never had any advantage to become president and he is spinning away from centre the more he opens his mouth.

Currently projected third or fourth behind APC, ADC and maybe even PDP.

Your oga's momentum ended when your fellow Ndigbo Obidients insulted and abused other Nigerians whose sin was not believing in your messiah. Good luck now asking politely for their votes.

You have accidentally made my point for me.

First, if your landlord says he is disappointed but will still vote Tinubu because of tribe, that is his personal position.

The real question is: why do many Obidients immediately assume every Yoruba supporting Tinubu is doing so because of tribe, but millions of Igbos supporting Obi are supposedly acting from pure political enlightenment?

That double standard is the hypocrisy.

Second, I agree with you on something important: Obi never had an easy path to the presidency. In fact, I have repeatedly argued that his support was heavily concentrated in the South-East and parts of the North-Central.

The difference is that in 2023 many people mistook a powerful protest movement for a national governing coalition.

Those are not the same thing.

Third, on momentum, you are touching a sensitive point.

The Obi movement did suffer enormous reputational damage because too many supporters substituted persuasion with abuse.

Many neutrals who might have listened were insulted as idiots, slaves, ethnic enemies or paid agents simply because they disagreed.

Politics is addition, not subtraction.

You do not win a national election by constantly shrinking your coalition.

Finally, the article was not claiming Obi had no wave.

The article's argument is that the wave has not translated into durable structure.

Edo, Ondo, Anambra and the bye-elections are the evidence.

The question is no longer whether there was a wave.

The question is where it went. 😁

BeardedMeat:
Conjectures upon conjectures from the ruling party who acts like opposition.

What do you really mean by waned?

Peter has gained more followers than he had in 2023, while Tinubu has lost 40% of his followers to Atiku and Obi.

If we talk on internet, you'd say it's not by internet noise, now the very same thing you flatly critique is your yardstick for guaging popularity. That's serious.

This is a clever argument, but the figures do not support it.

First, “Peter has gained more followers” is not evidence. Followers where? Twitter? WhatsApp? YouTube? Elections are not counted in likes.

Second, where exactly did Tinubu lose 40% of his votes to Atiku and Obi? Which state? Which ward? Which election result proves this?

The actual post-2023 elections show the opposite: LP / NDC / ADC have struggled badly in Edo, Ondo, Anambra and recent bye-elections, while PDP often still outperforms LP/NDC/ADC on the ground.

Third, Obi’s 2023 vote was not simply “mass appeal.” It was heavily concentrated in the South-East and Christian/minority-belt states. He scored huge numbers in Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Abia, Ebonyi, Plateau, Benue and Taraba, but performed poorly across much of the North-West and North-East.

That was a protest/identity/religious wave, partly driven by Muslim-Muslim ticket anxiety.

What has changed since then?

The novelty is gone. LP structure has weakened. Soludo crushed Obi’s candidate in Anambra. LP and all parties associated with him were not a serious factor in Ondo. Edo exposed the limits of social media energy.

So yes, by “waned,” I mean simple English: the wave is no longer translating into votes.

And politics is not measured by online confidence.

It is measured by polling-unit arithmetic.

OredoPikin:
Wait make campaign start na

As at June 2022, who know Obi?
Everything started from August.
People were even saying he won't win a single local govt
Some said they were just 4people in a room twitting.
Even Tinubu didn't see him as a threat until very close to the election.
Atiku was asked about him and his reply was he can't use LP to go anywhere and that interview was even in October 2022.
So don't rejoice yet

Like I keep telling u guys but u dont want to listen
Tinubu performance would have been the only thing that could have silence Obi.
In fact, giving Nigerians that 247 electricity he promised would have ended all oppositions.
But he failed in all
Obi is now at an advantage like never before.
Some People voted Tinubu then because of he built Lagos propaganda and want to see what he will do nationally
My landlord na Yoruba Muslim
Immediately Tinubu was swore in, there was nothing he didn't say.
All the praises in this world he heaped on Tinubu
The expectation and everything.
Just 3yrs after, go and ask the same man about tinubu
He will clearly tell you Tinubu is a disappointment but I will still vote him because he is my tribe man.
Let him just finish our turn and get out.

My brother, the biggest flaw in your argument is that you assume 2027 will be a replay of 2023.

It won't.

2023 and 2027 are different universes.

In 2023, Obi was the new product on the shelf. Many people had not examined it closely. The novelty was the attraction.

By 2027, the wrapper has been opened.

People have now had four years to examine the content.

That changes everything.

You say nobody knew Obi in June 2022. Correct.

That was his advantage.

Nobody had tested his claims, contradictions or competence.

Today, Nigerians have heard Obi promise 10,000MW without explaining the funding, transmission plan, gas supply, timelines or execution model.

They watched him condemn “structures of criminality,” only to later embrace the same old political actors when it became convenient.

They have seen him hop from one platform to another while asking Nigerians to trust his stability.

They have watched Labour Party fracture under his watch.

They have seen allies, spokesmen and supporters drift away.

Most importantly, they have seen that behind the fine slogans is a weak, confused and reactive leadership style.

The mystery is gone.

Second, it is funny how you accuse Yorubas of supporting Tinubu because he is Yoruba, but somehow the overwhelming support Obi receives from Igbos is always presented as superior political enlightenment.

Why?

What evidence do you have that tribal voting is tribal voting when others do it, but patriotic wisdom when your side does it?

Third, Obi is not automatically at an advantage because people are unhappy.

Anti-incumbency is not a manifesto.

Anger is not a policy document.

What exactly is Obi's alternative economic plan?

What is his power sector roadmap?

What is his fuel subsidy alternative?

What is his exchange-rate policy?

The answers remain remarkably vague.

Finally, politics is full of what I call Aba Trader Syndrome.

A product is wrapped in brilliant packaging, marketed with maximum hype and sold as revolutionary.

The buyer gets home, opens the package and discovers the content is far less impressive than the advertising.

The challenge for Obi in 2027 is simple:

How do you sell the same product a second time to people who have already opened the wrapper? 😁

AMINDA:
By this time in 2023, virtually all Tinubu lackeys of today from the Southwest were afraid to publicly campaign for Tinubu. They were being intimated and dominated by the Obidients. Today, they are the loudest in the room after Northerners like Elrufai and co did the hard work and made Tinubu president. Well, as is typical, even Tinubu has gone ahead to betray all who made him president while rewarding the ones who insulted him all through the campaigns and made his election difficult.

"The vulture is a patient bird" - James Hardly Chase

This “El-Rufai and the North made Tinubu president” line is sweet politically, but weak arithmetically.

Let us start with Kaduna. In 2023, Atiku defeated Tinubu in Kaduna presidential election. So if El-Rufai “made” Tinubu president, why did he fail to deliver his own state? Even the Kaduna governorship election was a narrow APC survival: Uba Sani scored **730,002** against PDP’s **719,196**.

Now compare that with today. APC has since won Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency by-election with **34,580** votes against PDP’s **11,491**, plus victories in Zaria Kewaye and Basawa state constituencies. That is not the picture of a dead APC in Kaduna.

The bigger point is this: governors matter. Structures matter. Local chairmen, senators, reps, assembly members and ward machinery matter. Politics is not nostalgia.

The northern politicians who truly worked with Tinubu are still largely with him. Today, APC controls more northern governorship structures, including strategic states across the North-West and North-East.

As for Obi, many of his 2023 northern votes were protest and identity votes in Christian/minority belts. Those votes are not guaranteed to remain intact in 2027.

So bookmark this: Tinubu does not need to win every northern state by landslide. He needs spread, structure and competitive margins.

Atiku may have sentiment.

Obi may have noise.

But Tinubu has governors.

And in Nigerian politics, governors are not decoration. They are engines.

1vandragon:
Obi is not a movement. Never was, never will be.

Trying to see PO in the light of a PMB who had a cult following dedicated to him, would be missing the point of what the masses really want.

PO is simply a convenient symbol for change. A case of the best from a bad bunch.

It is the masses that provides the fuel for PO, and not the other way round.

Are there people who view PO as some sought of messiah? Certainly. And those people are probably more vocal than most. We saw it with PMB and we are seeing it with bat. OBJ, Yar' Adua and GEJ did not have such fanatic supporters who defend incompetence regardless of how obvious it is.

So, the flood or wave was never about PO. It was the people and PO was simply a beneficiary of it.

One thing is undisputed. Bat has failed. Coincidentally, his failure is also his greatest weapon. By further impoverishing the masses, it becomes easier to buy thier votes at the point of the polling booth. Vote bat and get immediate monetary rewards. It is why those who troop out massively to vote are usually the poor who live from hand to mouth and bat knows this.

Right now, all political indicies favour bat, but socio-economic that matter to the masses do not.

But one thing OP is right about, PO needs to learn to manage the support he has better.

This is a thoughtful argument, but it contains one major weakness: it romanticises the Obi vote as “the masses” without looking at where the votes actually came from.

If Obi was simply the candidate of the poor masses, why did he perform so poorly in most of the North-West, North-East and large parts of the South-West? Are there no poor people there?

In 2023, Obi’s strongest votes came from the South-East and selected Christian/minority-belt states.
He scored 584,621 in Anambra, 466,272 in Enugu, 352,904 in Imo, 341,866 in Ebonyi, and 327,095 in Abia. He also did strongly in Plateau with 466,272, Benue with 308,372, and Taraba with 146,315].

That pattern suggests identity, protest, religion and regional emotion — not simply “the masses.”

Meanwhile, in Bauchi he got 27,373, Kano 28,513, and much of the North-West/North-East gave him single-digit percentages.

So the “poor masses” theory collapses. Poor Nigerians exist everywhere, but Obi’s votes did not spread everywhere.

And what has changed since 2023? The wave has failed to become structure. Edo, Ondo, Anambra and recent bye-elections show obi influence declining sharply outside presidential emotion.

So yes, Obi was a symbol.

But symbols without structure become souvenirs. 😂

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Omo Obi must be your nightmare,all your thread is about Obi.So you now agree Obi had wave in 2023,I thought you guys said it's 3 guys tweeting in a room.Dont worry wait for 2027 when Obi is on the ballot and see the double wave this time around with kwankwanso

My brother, you have missed the subject again.

The article is not denying that Obi had a wave in 2023. In fact, it clearly says the wave was real.

The point is that the wave has since reduced to electoral drizzle. Edo, Ondo, Anambra and the bye-elections after 2023 all show the same pattern: noise without structure.

As for Kwankwaso, please calm down.

In 2023, Kwankwaso was on the ballot himself. He won only **one state — Kano** — and finished fourth nationally with about **1.49 million votes**, while Tinubu won nationally with about **8.79 million votes**.

Outside Kano, where exactly was the Kwankwaso tsunami?

Tinubu defeated him across the North except Kano. So this “Obi plus Kwankwaso double wave” sounds more like two leaking buckets forming an alliance against a river. 😂

If Obi’s wave is fading and Kwankwaso’s strength barely crossed Kano in 2023, what exactly are we supposed to fear?

A coalition of nostalgia and red caps?

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Nobody takes your paid writeups against Obi serious.

Nobody takes it serious?

Interesting. Did you conduct a national survey or you just interviewed your emotions? 😁

And if nobody takes it serious, why are you here taking it personally?

Also, "paid writeup" is not a rebuttal. It is what people say when the argument hits a nerve.

You have not disproved the article.

You have merely acted out the chapter on Obidient deflection. 😂

mrvitalis:
What ever Obidient are doing APC did worse to Jonathan so lack the moral authority to condemn Obidient

You are obviously not smart enough to understand this

My Friend, the irony is spectacular. 😁

You say I am "not smart enough," yet your entire argument is a textbook example of a logical fallacy.

Let's test it.

If APC supporters behaved badly toward Jonathan, does that automatically mean Obidients cannot behave badly today?

If a thief stole yesterday, does that mean today's thief becomes innocent?

If one student cheated in WAEC, does that mean another student cannot be accused of cheating?

You see the problem?

You have not challenged a single point in the article.

You have merely shouted, "What about APC?"

That is not reasoning.

That is deflection wearing borrowed clothes.

The article was about Obidient behaviour.

Your response is about Jonathan.

That is like a doctor diagnosing malaria and the patient responding with the history of yellow fever in 1987. 😂

And as for being "not smart enough," my brother, when a man cannot answer the argument and starts discussing another topic entirely, he should be careful about issuing IQ certificates.

You have not rebutted the article.

You have demonstrated it.

Thank you for your cooperation.

esnbrutality:
Time of THREAD..

5.15am

CharlesCNG

😂😂😂

So after several paragraphs, examples and arguments, your rebuttal is now... the time stamp?

My brother, thank you for proving another point from the article.

When some Obidients cannot challenge the substance, they begin examining the curtains, the font size, the profile picture, the time of posting and the weather conditions.

The article was about Obidient behaviour.

Your response was about 5:15am.

That is like receiving a court judgment and responding to the colour of the judge's tie.

At least we now know the article landed exactly where it was supposed to. 😁