₦airaland Forum

GUNITGuy:
Exactly i doubt if Atiku thought through before making that statement ...
Will he force Dangote to sell below cost price
Would be reduce minimum wage

You are right. Atiku is approaching what may be his final serious presidential attempt. The danger is that desperation can make a politician promise anything, reverse anything and say anything that might produce one more electoral opening.

But Nigeria's economy is too serious for last-chance manifesto improvisation.

You don't announce the price of the medicine before deciding who manufactures it, who pays for it, what dosage you can afford and whether it clashes with every other drug the patient is already taking.

Atiku has announced the medicine.

Now let him produce the prescription.

ogascomax:
If you ended in clime 2 I would have accented what you said but adding other climes made me see that the rest climes were nonsense by you.

😂😂 My brother, before we debate my “climes,” perhaps first decide whether you want to accept them or accent them.

I made claims, not climatic zones. We are discussing fuel subsidy, not Geography.

But never mind the English excursion. You apparently agree with my first two points and disagree with the rest.

Excellent.

Which specific claim is wrong, and why?

Quote it. Rebut it. Bring your figures.

Calling everything after “clime 2” nonsense is not a rebuttal.

You cannot mark an economics examination by writing “NONSENSE” from Question 3 downward and expect full marks. 😂

Back to Atiku's subsidy economics, please.

SmartPolician:
It's either you people have been brainwashed by criminals in power or you are one of those who they pay to defend their madness on social media.

Dangote refines crude oil to sell to both Nigerians and foreign buyers. The NNPC gives a a fraction of crude oil to Dangote in naira to satisfy local demand while Dangote imports the rest.

Crude oil is a raw material Nigeria has in abundance. If Atiku wants to subsidize the refined products distributed locally, he will only acquire the data of how much products Nigerians consume every day, subsidize it for citizens while Dangote maintains its price for international buyers. This is no rocket science!

Tell your Tinubu that his "subsidy is gone" policy has only enriched his fellow thieves in power, while destroying the middle class, skyrocketing inflation and leaving struggling Nigerians worse off!

The insult is doing the heavy lifting because the economics still has holes.

Yes, Nigeria can decide to subsidise the portion of Dangote petrol sold domestically. But saying “just get consumption data and subsidise it” skips the entire hard part.

Dangote’s refinery is a commercial business. Its petrol price still reflects crude cost, refining cost, FX exposure and market conditions. In July 2026, Dangote’s ex-depot petrol price moved to about ₦1,215/litre, and the refinery itself linked the increase to higher global crude prices.

So if Atiku wants Nigerians to pay, say, ₦700 while Dangote’s commercial price is ₦1,215, somebody must pay the roughly ₦515 difference on every subsidised litre.

That “somebody” is government.

And once government starts reimbursing the difference, the old questions return immediately: who verifies the litres, who confirms they were actually sold locally, who prevents inflated claims, who stops diversion, and who pays when crude prices rise again?

The naira-for-crude arrangement does not make crude free. It merely changes the settlement currency. Dangote has also complained that available crude under that arrangement has been insufficient, forcing it to source additional crude elsewhere.

So no, this is not rocket science.

It is actually more basic:

Atiku still has to tell Nigerians the subsidised benchmark price, the subsidy per litre, the eligible volumes, the reimbursement mechanism and the annual cost.

Until then, “we will simply subsidise Dangote’s local output” is not an answer.

Rayjay45:
Dey dia dey yarn dust. Your own principal gangan don yarn say 'shey na statistics we go chop?'

Make the whole North hear this Atiku proposition lasan and 2027 will be so over for you thieves!

Laughable , pathetic attempt to derail the thread and change the subject.

Nobody is discussing what “the North will hear” in 2027. We are discussing one specific proposition:

Atiku says he will restore fuel subsidy.

Fine.

Then answer the economics.

What will be the benchmark petrol price?

₦600? ₦700? ₦800?

How much will government pay on every litre?

Where will the money come from?

How will he prevent diversion, arbitrage and smuggling?

What happens to Dangote and other local refiners?

Those are not “statistics.” Those are the actual mechanics of the policy.

Saying “the North will love it” is like advertising free lunch and refusing to say who is paying the restaurant bill.

So please, no more detours.

Back to Atiku's voodoo economics.

He made the promise.

Let him show us the price tag.

Rayjay45:
You sef see CharlesCNG gallivanting and spamming the whole place - even replying himself

The struggles of a data boy.

Someone just promoted me to Bayo Onanuga. You have now demoted me back to data boy. 😂

No problem. Please hold a meeting and agree on my job description.

But CharlesCNG is not the subject.

Atiku’s voodoo economics is.

He says he will restore subsidy.

So answer the basic questions:

At what benchmark petrol price?

How much subsidy per litre?

Who pays the difference?

How will he stop arbitrage and diversion?

Where is the funding plan?

Calling me Bayo Onanuga, data boy, spammer or anything else does not supply the missing arithmetic.

So please, back to topic.

Atiku made the promise. Let Atiku explain the economics.

Gaddaffi121:
This is bayo onanuga. Nothing you wan tell me

Does this mean you Obidients have finally promoted me from the famous ₦30k-a-month data boy to Bayo Onanuga? 😂

At this rate, one more rebuttal and I may become Minister of Information.

Anyway, enough promotions. We are discussing Atiku's voodoo economics here.

He says he will restore subsidy.

Fine.

At what petrol price?

How much will government pay per litre?

Who receives the subsidy?

How will he prevent arbitrage, diversion and smuggling?

Where will the trillions come from?

Calling me Bayo Onanuga does not answer any of those questions.

So please leave my imaginary appointment letter alone and return to the economics.

Atiku made the promise. Let Atiku produce the calculator.

greatiyk4u:
You ended up compounding the confusion in an attempt to defend Tinubu.......if you can't see failure written all over Tinubu and his government, you need to check yourself......
The usual complaints is that fuel subsidy is riddled with corruption, can't the corrupt practices be curbed if the government is serious......the effects of low fuel cost in the lives of Nigerians is far more valuable than the valueless increase in the state and LG allocation that is hardly used for the benefit of the masses

You are still treating Nigeria as though the President runs every state treasury.

We operate a federal system. Tinubu cannot collect FAAC on behalf of a governor and then personally decide how that governor spends it.

If a state receives more money and wastes it, blame the governor. If a local government misuses its allocation, blame the local authorities.

That does not prove the money should instead have been burnt permanently subsidising every litre of petrol consumed by rich and poor alike.

And “just stop the corruption in subsidy” ignores the real problem: the corruption was encouraged by the price distortion itself.

Create a large gap between official petrol price and market value and you create arbitrage, diversion and smuggling.

Low petrol prices are desirable. But subsidy does not make petrol cheap.

It only changes who pays.So before celebrating Atiku’s slogan, ask him one basic question:

What will his benchmark petrol price be, and exactly how will he pay the difference?

Until he answers that, “bring subsidy back” remains a slogan, not a policy.

AhmeduandOkopi:
Atiku was a gazetted thief, quite so...
And frankly, he was just using that subsidy subject to buy himself some credit after partaking on an Israelite desert journey, through the Nigerian political landscape
But one thing I like about the chap is that he keeps poking el chapo amoda's parachute size brokos...

ADC ADOPTED ITS MANIFESTO IN APRIL. SO WHERE DID ATIKU'S “RESTORE FUEL SUBSIDY” POLICY COME FROM? By CharlesCNG

Something very interesting happened today.

Atiku Abubakar announced that if elected President in 2027:“I will restore the subsidy.”

But there is one problem. Is that actually ADC policy?

Let us rewind.

Earlier this year, ADC constituted a Policy and Manifesto Committee chaired by former Edo State governor John Odigie-Oyegun, with Professor Pat Utomi as deputy chairman.

They were specifically asked to develop the policies with which ADC intended to govern Nigeria.

They did their work. They submitted their report.

And on April 14, 2026, ADC's National Convention adopted the party's revised Policy and Manifesto.

So what was ADC's position on fuel subsidy?

Before the manifesto was adopted, ADC spokesman Bolaji Abdullahi explained the emerging thinking very clearly:

“Giving fuel subsidy to everybody is wrong. Removing subsidy from everybody is equally wrong.”

Then came the proposed solution:

“ADC will provide subsidy to those who need subsidy.”

That is TARGETED SUBSIDY. As senseless and ineffective and unpractical is, It is fundamentally different from simply announcing:

“I WILL RESTORE FUEL SUBSIDY.”

So what happened between April and August?

Did ADC amend its manifesto? Did the Oyegun-Utomi committee reconvene? Did the party abandon targeted subsidy?

Did the National Working Committee approve universal subsidy restoration?

Or did Atiku simply announce a new multi-trillion-naira economic policy on the campaign trail?

These questions matter.

Because ADC spent months telling Nigerians that it was different.

It formed committees. It recruited economists and policy experts. It produced a manifesto.

It took that manifesto to a National Convention. The convention adopted it.

You cannot go through all that trouble and then have your presidential candidate casually introduce a fundamentally broader subsidy commitment four months later without explaining how it fits the manifesto.
So before we even calculate what Atiku's restored subsidy will cost, Nigerians deserve one very simple answer:

WHERE IS “RESTORE FUEL SUBSIDY” IN THE ADC MANIFESTO ADOPTED IN APRIL?

If it is there, show us.

If ADC has subsequently changed its policy, tell Nigerians when it changed and why.

But if neither has happened, then we have an even bigger problem.

ATIKU MAY BE MAKING ECONOMIC POLICY UP AS HE GOES ALONG.

And that is precisely what a manifesto is supposed to prevent.

phadul:
This is the kind of person that wants to be president without a blueprint just speculation

# ATIKU'S SUBSIDY QUESTION IS ALSO AN FX QUESTION By CharlesCNG.

Atiku says he will restore fuel subsidy.

But fuel subsidy does not exist in isolation.

Petrol pricing is tied to the exchange rate.

If the naira is weak, the cost of crude, imported inputs and refinery operations rises in naira terms.

So Atiku has another question to answer:

WHAT WILL HE DO ABOUT THE EXCHANGE RATE?

If he keeps the current market-driven FX system and still wants cheaper petrol, government will have to pay the difference.

That means a bigger subsidy bill.

If he gives refiners or marketers access to special cheap dollars, then he has simply brought back another form of subsidy through the foreign-exchange window.

And that creates fresh problems: Who gets the cheap dollars? Dangote? NNPC? Private marketers? Importers?

At what rate? And who prevents round-tripping and arbitrage?

Nigeria has been down that road before.

So this is the simple question Atiku must answer:

WILL HE RESTORE FUEL SUBSIDY WITHOUT RESTORING FX SUBSIDY?

If yes, show us who pays the difference. If no, then tell Nigerians clearly that multiple exchange rates may be coming back.

Because you cannot promise artificially cheap petrol while pretending the dollar side of the equation does not exist.

Fuel subsidy is also an exchange-rate policy.

Until Atiku explains both, ALL IS TALKING IS VOODOO ECONOMICS THAT WILL COLLAPSE THE ECONOMY IN THREE MONTHS!!

Easylife1234:
Why you want to return us back to matter will already forget

ATIKU'S ₦600 PETROL PROMISE: WHO PAYS THE ₦12 TRILLION BILL? By CharlesCNG

Cheap petrol sounds wonderful.

That is precisely why politicians love promising it.

But somebody must pay the difference.

Petrol currently sells at roughly ₦1,200–₦1,250 per litre in major Nigerian cities.
If Atiku Abubakar wants government intervention to return the pump price to about ₦600, somebody has to absorb roughly ₦600 on every litre Nigerians consume.

Nigeria currently consumes around 51 million litres of petrol daily.

Do the arithmetic.

That is more than ₦30 billion every single day.

Almost ₦1 trillion every month.

Potentially ₦11–₦12 trillion every year.

SO WHERE WILL THE MONEY COME FROM?

More borrowing? Higher taxes? Less money for roads? Less for education? Less for healthcare?

Or another round of opaque NNPC under-recovery?

The irony is even richer.

In 2022, Atiku himself described fuel subsidy as “a fraud” and said the money spent on it should return to the treasury for education, healthcare and development.

Apparently, what was “fraud” when he wanted to remove it has suddenly become economic salvation when he wants votes.

If Atiku wants ₦600 petrol, don't just give us the slogan.

SHOW US THE ₦12 TRILLION.
But here is the truth , atiku himself has no plan . he is just making a false PROMISE.

Ttalk:
In other words returning subsidy simply mean Dangote refinery will pack up and Nigeria will lose saved fx used in importation.

Reason why many are poor is not because they are not hardworking but it's because they have refused to use their common sense.

ATIKU'S SUBSIDY PROMISE HAS ONE MISSING DETAIL: HOW? By CharlesCNG

Atiku says he will restore fuel subsidy.

Fine.

But HOW? What price does he want Nigerians to pay for petrol?

₦600? ₦700? ₦800? Who pays the difference between that price and the real market price?

The Federal Government? NNPC? Or will Nigeria borrow to pay it?

And how will private marketers and local refiners be compensated?

These are not small details. They ARE the policy.

The irony is that Atiku once described the old subsidy system as “a fraud” and supported its removal.

His argument later became that Tinubu removed it too suddenly.

Now he wants subsidy restored.

So Nigerians deserve more than another attractive campaign promise.

Tell us the target petrol price. Tell us how much subsidy each litre will carry. Tell us what it will cost every year.

And most importantly:

TELL US WHERE THE MONEY WILL COME FROM. Because subsidy does not make the cost of petrol disappear.

It merely moves part of the bill from the filling station to the government treasury.

Until Atiku explains who pays that bill and how it will work: “I WILL RESTORE FUEL SUBSIDY” IS NOT YET A POLICY.
Atiku is just confused and desperate. If the subsidy is restored, the nigerian economy will collapse totally within three months!
atiku is proposing nothing but nonsensical VOODOO ECONOMICS!

It is a promise waiting for a calculator.

GenerationNext:
Dangote's refinery can be subsidized.

Yes, Dangote Refinery can be subsidised. But that does not solve Atiku’s problem—it simply changes who receives the subsidy cheque.

If Dangote’s commercial price is above Atiku’s desired pump price, government must either:

pay Dangote/marketers the difference;
give the refinery cheaper crude or FX;
absorb the gap through NNPC;
or force sales below economic cost.

So the basic questions remain:

At what benchmark price? How much subsidy per litre? Who gets paid? Who verifies volumes? And where will the money come from?

Saying “Dangote can be subsidised” is not the answer.

It is simply another way of saying taxpayers will pay the difference.
Atiku has no plan! Subsidy restoration will collapse the country in less than three months!! Subsidy restoration is voodoo economics.

Threedoorsdown:
Apc just de deceive themselves

Let them explain how the so called subsidy money has been spent . Show us evidence

So, since you do not know , let me explain if you have not already closed your mind.

Subsidy removal does not create one giant vault called “subsidy savings.”

It reduces what government would otherwise have spent subsidising each litre of petrol.
The fiscal space then shows up through higher FAAC allocations to federal, state and local governments, debt servicing, infrastructure, social interventions and other budgeted spending.

States and LGAs have received significantly larger monthly allocations since subsidy removal.
Programmes such as student loans, infrastructure spending and targeted interventions are part of the broader post-subsidy fiscal response.
You can argue about whether the money has been spent well enough. That is legitimate.
But saying “show us the subsidy money” as though ₦10 trillion was withdrawn and kept in a separate bank account misunderstands how public finance works.


When a government stops spending trillions on a subsidy, do you expect the savings to sit in one labelled account called “SUBSIDY MONEY,” or do you expect them to flow through the federation account and the national budget?

Streetinvestor2:
They whr not paying them because the governors that came before oti whr criminals who are now in apc and not because thr was no money to pay them.
Oti has not borrowed like any of them and is working. The saved money from subsidy has been looted by baron and apc thieves.
Whr is the mass cng vehicles after 3 yrs.
He has borrowed more than all government after removing subsidy. Even the rubbish called NELFUND he is now looking for investors unclaimed dividend to fund it and loot the remaining

First, the idea that states could always pay salaries and pensions but simply chose not to is historically false.
Twenty-seven states once needed federal bailout loans just to clear salary arrears, so pretending there was never a real fiscal crisis is revisionism and a LIE on your part.

The old subsidy regime cost trillions, encouraged smuggling and arbitrage, drained FX and helped keep Nigeria import-dependent.

Third, “where are the CNG vehicles?” is fair as a question of scale, but saying nothing exists is wrong. I am in the CNG business.
There are 120,000+ converted vehicles, 337+ conversion centres, 655 CNG buses, 5,123 CNG tricycles and dozens of refuelling stations. You can argue it is not yet enough; you cannot honestly argue it is nonexistent.
Fourth, “Tinubu has borrowed more than everybody before him” is another debt-stock sleight of hand. Nigeria’s naira debt stock jumped partly because old dollar debt became much larger in naira terms after devaluation. Even external debt rose by about $9.4 billion between May 2023 and December 2025, versus roughly $32.6 billion during Buhari’s tenure.

And NELFUND is not “rubbish” simply because government is looking at additional funding sources. It is an operational student-loan scheme with over 1.3 million registrations on its official platform. The current debate over unclaimed dividends concerns how additional financing should be legally structured and protected, not proof that the programme does not exist.

Now to Atiku.

It is easy to shout “bring subsidy back!” But that is not yet a policy.

Atiku has not told Nigerians the most basic thing: What will be his benchmark petrol price? ₦600? ₦700? ₦800?

And once he fixes that price below market cost:Who pays the difference? The Treasury? NNPC? Dangote Refinery? Borrowing? A special FX window?
Atiku has no plan yet for subsidy restoration. he is just confused and desperate.

iwaeda:
A government that is still paying under recover, Let them account for all the payments by NNPC to import fuel. The hardship really unbearable. Anything to cushion the wicked act of subsidy removal without planning is welcome.

You are focusing only on the half-empty bottle aspect of fuel subsidy removal—often with deliberate distortions—while ignoring the half that is filling up.
Atiku's plan - of which he has not provided a single detail will be a total disster. indeed it will collapse the economy. I will provide you with more than twenty reasons but will start with just one:DANGOTE AND LOCAL OTHER LOCAL REFINERS.

Nigeria’s petrol market is no longer the old import-dependent system: with Dangote and other local refiners now producing, Atiku’s detail-free “restore subsidy” talk raises one simple question: will government force local refiners to sell below cost, or will taxpayers pay them the difference?

Until he answers that, “I will restore subsidy” is not a policy; it is a slogan without an invoice.

BEFORE ATIKU “BRINGS SUBSIDY BACK,” PLEASE GET ATIKU AND HIS SUPPOERTERS , AT LEAST THE OLD SUBSIDY ARITHMETIC RIGHT

AMINDA:
All through his 8-year tenure, Buhari paid a total subsidy of about 8 trillion naira. In the first 6 months after announcing "subsidy is gone", Tinubu paid a subsidy of about 6 trillion naira and termed it "energy security". He has also outborrowed Buhari’s 8-year tenure in just 3 years and yet, Buhari paid subsidies and has more tangible infrastructural projects to show. Who is fooling who? Splurging money on state governors in exchange for their defection and endorsement can hardly be regarded as a dividend of subsidy removal. Atiku will bring fuel subsidy back!

This is what happens when political conclusions come before arithmetic.
You made four assertions
Let's rebut this point by point.

CLAIM 1: “Buhari paid only ₦8 trillion subsidy in eight years.”

Not quite. Published estimates put Buhari-era subsidy/under-recovery higher. 2022 plus the first half of 2023 alone consumed roughly ₦7–₦8 trillion.So the ₦8 trillion claim for Buhari's entire eight years is already suspect.

CLAIM 2: “Tinubu paid ₦6 trillion subsidy in his first six months.”

You mixing two adminisrations.

NNPC's 2023 figures included about ₦3.3 trillion incurred from January–May—before Tinubu became President.

Tinubu's August–December component was around ₦1.8 trillion.

Buhari incurred part of the bill; Tinubu inherited the ledger—but you mischievously want to hand Tinubu the entire receipt. 😂

CLAIM 3: “Tinubu has outborrowed Buhari in three years.”

WRONG AGAIN. Debt stock ≠ new borrowing.A huge part of the naira increase came from revaluing existing foreign debt after naira depreciation. Another major component was Buhari-era Ways & Means liabilities subsequently recognised/securitised as public debt.

Again , You being mischievous by renaming exchange-rate revaluation and inherited liabilities “Tinubu borrowing.”

CLAIM 4: “Tinubu is splurging subsidy savings on governors for defections.”

Arrant Nonsense . Where is the evidence?

FAAC allocations are constitutionally distributed to federal, state and local governments. Higher government revenues increased the distributable pool. States that could not pay salaries before subsidy removal are not only paying but are building infrastrctures.

Calling statutory allocations political bribes can only come from the figments of the imagination of an atikulated mind


Basically what you have done is mix Buhari's bills with Tinubu's, confuse debt stock with borrowing and turn FAAC allocations into defection payments without evidence—

then announce:“ATIKU WILL BRING SUBSIDY BACK!”

Before Atiku brings anything back, answer one question:

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST—AND WHO WILL PAY?
Atiku is not bringing subsidy back otherwise ask him to provide details of how.
Atiku is just confused and desperate and lying.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pmp9lt191c?si=GkeTc1l2j8jZ0NUx

I increasingly believe Rabiu Kwankwaso has made one of the worst political calculations of his career.

Look at what he had after 2023.

A governor. A state government. State legislators. Federal lawmakers.

A formidable Kwankwasiyya structure. And almost one million presidential votes in Kano alone.

Now look at the political map.

Governor Abba Yusuf is gone to APC. Much of the governmental structure that once surrounded Kwankwasiyya has gone with him.

Nine Kano federal lawmakers subsequently crossed to APC.

Kwankwaso himself abandoned NNPP, passed through ADC and eventually arrived in NDC as Peter Obi's running mate.

And now we have videos reportedly showing some Kano youths doing something that would once have been almost unimaginable:

BURNING THE KWANKWASIYYA RED CAP.

The reports still require independent verification, so nobody should pretend a few burning caps prove Kano has abandoned Kwankwaso.

But symbolically? WOW.

The red cap wasn't merely clothing. It was the uniform of a political army.

So when people begin publicly burning the uniform, a sensible commander should at least ask whether something is happening in the barracks.

Kwankwaso's great mistake may ultimately prove to be believing that his Kano voters are transferable political property.

That because they voted KWANKWASO in 2023, they will automatically vote OBI-KWANKWASO in 2027.

Those are two completely different propositions.

Politics has a cruel way of teaching leaders that followers are not luggage. You cannot simply pick them up at one political terminal and assume they will follow you onto whichever aircraft you board next.

Kwankwaso once possessed perhaps the most disciplined personal political movement in Northern Nigeria.

He should be asking himself one uncomfortable question: DID I JUST TRADE AN ARMY FOR A VICE-PRESIDENTIAL TICKET?

Because when your journey begins with nearly one million Kano presidential votes and eventually produces images of people reportedly setting your famous red caps on fire...

perhaps it is time to check whether you chose the wrong road.

AMINDA:
All these names you mentioned were on the ballot in 2023 and Tinubu could only manage to win with a margin of circa 2m. That was an untested Tinubu that was sold with so much propaganda as the "builder of Lagos" and "spotter of talents". Tinubu will be running on his performance in 2027. Not forgetting that 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes were from the North, unlike say, Atiku who only has circa 1m of his 6.9m votes coming from the South. Yet, Tinubu's handlers are marketing him as a Yoruba candidate.

The problem with this argument is that it keeps treating 2023 as though everybody is returning to the same battlefield with the same armies.

They are not.

Yes, Tinubu won by about 1.8 million votes in 2023: 8,794,726 to Atiku's 6,984,520. But elections are not museum exhibits. Coalitions move. Parties weaken. Structures defect. Incumbency changes the equation.

And Atiku's real problem in 2027 is not whether Tinubu once got 5.6 million northern votes.

It is this: WHERE EXACTLY IS ATIKU'S PATHWAY? In 2023, Atiku still had PDP governors, PDP structures and decades of accumulated party machinery. In 2027, he is trying to rebuild from a much weaker platform.

My prediction is on record:

Atiku will not score 5% in any southern state. ,He will not reach 25% in any North-Central state. He will be roundly defeated in Kano. In the North-East, I expect him to lose states such as Taraba and Borno.

Bookmark this.After the election, bring the receipt.

Because I have rarely seen Atiku approach a presidential election this poorly prepared.

The fascinating thing is that his supporters keep discussing 2023 arithmetic while ignoring 2027 political geography.

That is like a general boasting about how many soldiers he had in the last war while half the battalions have since changed camps.

2023 Atiku had a recognisable electoral machine.

2027 Atiku presently has slogans, nostalgia and a coalition still trying to agree on what it actually believes.

Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed has apparently seen the 2027 presidential result already.

“If it's a credible, free and fair election, I assure you Tinubu would lose.”

Not “could lose.” Not “may lose.” WOULD LOSE.

I have only one question:

WHO WILL BE WINNING AT 4:01 P.M.? Donald Duke? Atiku Abubakar? Peter Obi?Sowore?

Or that mysterious Nigerian presidential candidate called:“THE OPPOSITION”?

YOU CANNOT DEFEAT SOMEBODY WITH NOBODY

This is the intellectual laziness increasingly creeping into opposition politics.

Everything begins and ends with:TINUBU MUST GO!

Fine.

WHO REPLACES HIM?

Presidential elections are not referendums asking: “Do you like Bola Tinubu?” There will be candidates on the ballot.

A vote for Atiku is not a vote for Obi. A vote for Obi is not a vote for Donald Duke, A vote for Donald Duke is not a vote for Donald Duke.

And none of those votes magically enters one giant ballot box marked: ANTI-TINUBU.

So before predicting Tinubu's defeat by 4 p.m., perhaps tell us who is ahead at 4:01.

DONALD DUKE, PERHAPS?

This is where Baba-Ahmed's prediction becomes particularly fascinating.

He is not an independent analyst anymore. He is NATIONAL CHAIRMAN OF PRP.

And PRP already has a presidential candidate:DONALD DUKE.

So why didn't the PRP National Chairman simply say:“I assure you Donald Duke will defeat Bola Tinubu”?

Perhaps it is time for the Self-Appointed Northern Electoral College to stop speaking in riddles.

If what this group of entitled Northern elites really wants is for presidential power to return North after only four years in the South, SAY SO.

If the preferred vehicle is Atiku Abubakar, SAY ATIKU.

Stop telling us vaguely that “the North has rejected Tinubu” while mysteriously refusing to tell us whom “the North” has accepted.

Stop pointing at a dog and insisting Nigerians are looking at a monkey.

Maybe this isn't really about “saving Nigeria.”

Maybe the calculation is much simpler:

POWER LEFT THE NORTH IN 2023. THEY WANT IT BACK IN 2027.

Fine. That is a legitimate political ambition. Just have the courage to call it by its name.

And most importantly, don't convert the ambition of a Self-Appointed Northern Electoral College into the democratic verdict of millions of Northern Nigerians who have not appointed anybody to speak for them.

There is a peculiar breed of Nigeria's northern political elite who confuse three things:
ACCESS TO GOVERNMENT. ACCESS TO THE MEDIA. ACCESS TO THE ELECTORATE.

Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed unquestionably has the first two. But where is the evidence of the third?

His résumé is impressive: Permanent Secretary.Secretary of INEC. Chief of Staff to Bukola Saraki. Northern Elders Forum spokesman.

Adviser to Vice-President Kashim Shettima. Now PRP National Chairman.

That is an impressive ESTABLISHMENT résumé.

But I have searched for the public election Hakeem Baba-Ahmed personally contested and won. I haven't found one.

So let us ask some uncomfortable questions.

How many voters has Hakeem Baba-Ahmed personally persuaded to elect Hakeem Baba-Ahmed? Which constituency has tested his personal popularity?

Which House constituency? Which senatorial district? Which governorship? Which mass election?

Being articulate on television does not create polling agents. Writing brilliant newspaper columns does not create ward structures.

Sitting in meetings of “Northern Elders” does not mean the farmer in Katsina has surrendered his PVC to you.

And being regularly invited onto national television does not make anybody custodian of Northern votes.

MEDIA WEIGHT IS NOT ELECTORAL WEIGHT.

THE NORTHERN ELDERS FORUM IS NOT “THE NORTH”

This is where an important sleight of hand often occurs.

“Northern Elders Forum says…” quietly becomes: “THE NORTH says…”

Sorry.Those are NOT synonymous statements.

Who elected the Northern Elders Forum? Where was the election? How many people in Kano voted? How many in Borno?

Kaduna? Katsina? Sokoto? Niger?

How many Northern farmers, traders, mechanics, teachers, students and market women were consulted before somebody appeared on television to announce what “THE NORTH” thinks?

The Northern Elders Forum represents the Northern Elders Forum.

THE NORTH IS NOT A WHATSAPP GROUP

This is the Northern elitist arrogance I object to.

Not being Northern. Not being Hausa. Not being Fulani. Not being Muslim.

It is the assumption by a small, highly connected elite that proximity to microphones confers a political mandate over millions of ordinary Northerners.

The North is not a WhatsApp group administered by retired permanent secretaries in Abuja.

It is not a TRUSTTV, Channels , Arise television studio. The North does not possess one political brain.

So whenever somebody announces:

“THE NORTH HAS REJECTED TINUBU!” I ask:

WHICH NORTH?

Is Kashim Shettima less Northern than Hakeem Baba-Ahmed?

Is Babagana Zulum? Uba Sani? Dikko Radda? Nasir Idris? Umar Namadi?Mohammed Bago? and many, many more.

Whatever anybody thinks of these Northern APC politicians, they possess something Baba-Ahmed has never personally demonstrated:ACTUAL ELECTORAL MANDATES.

They have stood before voters.Baba-Ahmed has stood before microphones.

There is a difference.

And please spare us the impression that Baba-Ahmed is some detached emissary sent from the dusty streets of Northern Nigeria to deliver the verdict of “the masses.”

He is ESTABLISHMENT. Civil service establishment. Northern Elders establishment. Media establishment.

But Baba Hakeem should not , cannot and must not transform an establishment insider into the voice of the Northern masses simply because he speaks eloquently on television.

Hakeem Baba-Ahmed may be a bureaucratic heavyweight. An intellectual heavyweight. Certainly a MEDIA heavyweight.

But electorally? Until somebody shows me the constituency he personally commands, I see a POLITICAL PAPERWEIGHT mistaking access to microphones for access to the masses.

By all means, Hakeem:Speak for PRP. Speak for yourself.But don't casually speak for “THE NORTH.”

Northern voters have PVCs.

THEY CAN SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES and they will in the 2027 election.

😂THE OPPOSITION’S “SNAIL WITH HORNS”: Everybody Wants Tinubu Out—Nobody Wants to Build the Goat

Nigeria’s opposition increasingly reminds me of a man who went to the market looking for an animal with horns.

They brought him a goat.

NO!

A ram?

NO!

A cow?

NO!

After hours of argument and grammar, everybody finally realised what he wanted:

A SNAIL WITH HORNS. 😂

Welcome to Nigeria’s opposition politics ahead of 2027.

ALL of them seems to agrees on one thing:TINUBU MUST GO!

After that?

Confusion.

Atiku has his ambition. Obi has his ambition. Kwankwaso has his calculations.

Adebayo has his ideology. Sowore has his revolution.Others have parties without structures, structures without candidates, or candidates without governors.
But ask the simple question:
Who steps down?

You get a lecture on patriotism.

What is the common economic programme? Tinubu's shortcomings..... As if Tinubu's shortcomings is a manifesto for Governance!

Where is the nationwide structure? Social-media enthusiasm.

How do you reconcile fundamentally different ideologies? ANOTHER SUMMIT! 😂

And when electoral arithmetic becomes inconvenient, propaganda enters like NEPA after you have started the generator.

Lose an election: RIGGING!

Win one: REFERENDUM ON TINUBU! Suddenly every election is not local again.

Your party performs badly: STRATEGIC COOPERATION! With Whom? the one that has now repudiated you?

Another opposition party wins: OUR VICTORY!

The interpretation changes faster than the coalition negotiations of the Papa deceive Pikin G100 deception

Yet the central problem is obvious. A serious coalition requires more than a shared dislike of Tinubu.

It requires ideas. Organisation. Grassroots structures. Polling agents.

A coherent economic programme. Voter transfer.

And eventually, the most difficult ingredient of all:

SOMEBODY MUST AGREE NOT TO BE PRESIDENT. 😂

That is where all the summits, communiqués, ideological grammar and beautiful group photographs eventually meet reality.

Nigeria needs a strong opposition.But opposition cannot simply be anger with a microphone.

Until they solve the questions of candidate, programme, structure and sacrifice, they will continue touring Nigeria’s political marketplace—

rejecting the goat, rejecting the ram, rejecting the cow,

while searching desperately for that magnificent political creature:

THE SNAIL WITH HORNS. 😂

There is a Yoruba wisdom about deception that has been on my mind while watching this G100 opposition-unity campaign being championed largely by people sympathetic to Atiku.

My imperfect English rendering goes something like this:

Two parties to a lie cannot both be victims of the lie.

The person being deceived may genuinely believe what he is being told.

But the person telling the lie knows he is lying.

One party may be innocent.

The other cannot claim the same innocence.

Keep that thought somewhere.

Now consider G100.

The sales pitch sounds wonderfully patriotic:

Nigeria needs one opposition presidential candidate against Tinubu.

Beautiful.

But whenever people begin asking presidential candidates to surrender their ambitions, Nigerians should first ask:

WHO IS DOING THE ASKING—AND WHO ULTIMATELY BENEFITS?

Trust TV recently brought Dr Ladan Salihu to advocate the G100 project.

Ladan was introduced in the interview as a representative of the G100 opposition coalition advocacy initiative.

But there is a small problem.

Ladan is a known Atiku supporter.

For whatever reason, that important political background was not highlighted during the interview, leaving him sounding like a neutral mediator between Atiku, Peter Obi, Kwankwaso and everybody else.

But Ladan isn't some politically disinterested referee who descended from Mars to mediate among the opposition.

He was appointed to Atiku Abubakar's 2023 presidential campaign team and has subsequently spoken favourably about an Atiku-led presidential ticket.

Then consider G100's convener, Salihu Lukman.

He was an ADC chieftain before recently leaving the party following his disagreements over how he said El-Rufai treated him. He is also widely associated with the political tendency sympathetic to Atiku.

So look carefully at the emerging picture.

Prominent people driving the G100 conversation are Atiku sympathisers, while G100 wants opposition politicians to converge around one presidential candidate.

And Atiku already holds the ADC presidential ticket.

Does that automatically prove some secret conspiracy?

NO.

But it doesn't need to.

The visible political alignments alone justify uncomfortable questions.

THEN LOOK AT THE TRUST TV NARRATIVE

This is where things become particularly interesting.

On the same Trust TV political space, ADC chieftain Dimeji Fabiyi advanced the proposition:

“ONLY A NORTHERNER CAN DEFEAT TINUBU.”

He went even further:

“Only Atiku can push Tinubu out… no Southerner can defeat Tinubu.”

Now arrange the pieces.

First: Convince Nigerians that only a Northerner can defeat Tinubu.

Second: Convince opposition candidates that fragmentation guarantees defeat.

Third: Preach that everybody must sacrifice personal ambition for one candidate.

Fourth: Atiku already possesses the ADC presidential ticket. And it just so happens that he is a Northerner!!

At some point, Peter Obi, Makinde , Donald Duke and the others might reasonably ask:

“Gentlemen, where exactly is this conversation supposed to end?”

Because if this process is genuinely neutral, there is one beautifully simple test:

IS ATIKU ALSO PREPARED TO STEP DOWN?

If everybody else is expected to step down while Atiku somehow remains permanently seated, then we return to that Yoruba wisdom:

TWO PARTIES TO A LIE CANNOT BOTH BE VICTIMS.

The person being persuaded may genuinely believe he is participating in a neutral search for the strongest opposition candidate.

But if the people doing the persuading already have their preferred candidate, then they know something the person being persuaded doesn't.

And that is the question G100 must answer:

IS THIS REALLY A SEARCH FOR THE STRONGEST CANDIDATE—OR A SEARCH FOR ENOUGH PEOPLE TO STEP DOWN FOR ATIKU?

No conspiracy theory required.

No allegations about secret funding required.

Just follow the political incentives.

The important question isn't necessarily:

WHO FUNDS IT?

It is:

WHO BENEFITS?

Because sometimes you don't need to prove who secretly organised the journey.

You don't even need to know who bought the bus.

JUST WATCH WHERE EVERYBODY KEEPS TRYING TO DRIVE IT. 😂

Something amusing is happening in the Atiku/ADC camp after Osun 2026 Governorship Election.

Their candidate didn't win.

Their party was comprehensively rejected.

Yet somehow:

ADELEKE'S VICTORY HAS BECOME THEIR VICTORY. 😂.

Yesterday Night, they shared themselves to share the propaganda and lie in two separate stations
it was Bolaji Abdullahi on Trust TV. Dele Momodu on Channels Television.

Same laughable script:

Adeleke defeated APC; therefore Tinubu has been rejected and 2027 is coming.

Wonderful.

But somebody should ask Atiku's men:

WHAT DID OSUN SAY ABOUT YOUR OWN PARTY?

Because ADC was actually on the ballot.

Seun Okinbaloye confronted Momodu with the uncomfortable fact: ADC was “humiliated,” finishing a distant third with fewer than 30,000 votes.

Suddenly, that result tells us nothing about 2027.

But Adeleke's votes tell us everything about Tinubu!

Interesting mathematics for atiku spin doctors. 😂

Momodu had framed Osun as essentially Adeleke versus Tinubu. After APC lost, he declared that Tinubu had “without any doubt whatsoever” lost personally. What arrant Nonsense!

Fine.

Then if Tinubu owns Oyebamiji's 444,815 votes, who owns ADC's miserable result?

Atiku? Aregbesola? ADC?

Apparently nobody wants that inheritance. 😂

You cannot appropriate Adeleke's 511,067 votes for your 2027 narrative while burying your own party's performance.
THEN CAME THE “RIGGING” CLAIM

Momodu suggested that when IReV uploads slowed, “they were going to do their abracadabra as usual.”

Seun Okinbaloye asked the only question that matters:

WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE?

And this is precisely why we built Smart ElectionGuard Pro.

Yes, there was a real interruption. On election night, the IReV upload counter stalled at approximately 8:48 p.m. and resumed around 10:00 p.m., with about 471 polling-unit results still outstanding at the time.

So this is another lie from the Atiku media Propagandist.

But the biggest contradiction was still coming.

Atiku's men want Adeleke's victory to prove that Osun rejected Tinubu.

Unfortunately, there is one troublesome witness:

ADEMOLA ADELEKE HIMSELF. 😂

Seun reminded Momodu that Adeleke has publicly reaffirmed his support for Tinubu in 2027—even indicating willingness to work with Oyetola and Oyebamiji for the President.

Momodu's explanation?

Adeleke sometimes says such things to “fulfil all righteousness.”

Sound familiar?

Bolaji Abdullahi's response on Trust TV was essentially the same:

Don't worry. That's political talk.

😂😂😂

So we now understand the Atiku/ADC interpretation manual:

WHEN ADELEKE'S VOTES HURT TINUBU: BELIEVE ADELEKE.

WHEN ADELEKE SAYS HE SUPPORTS TINUBU: DON'T BELIEVE ADELEKE.

They want his votes. You just don't want his voice.

Adeleke won. APC lost. ADC lost even worse.

Congratulations to Adeleke.

But Atiku's men cannot climb onto another man's victory podium, wave ADC flags and declare that Nigerians have endorsed their 2027 project.

If Osun 2026 is the presidential opinion poll they insist it is, then ADC's own result must also be admitted into evidence.

You cannot use another man's 511,067 votes to demonstrate your political strength while explaining away your own miserable showing.

And you certainly cannot tell us Adeleke's voters have rejected Tinubu while Adeleke himself is standing there saying:

I WILL SUPPORT TINUBU.

At some point, gentlemen...

YOU NEED TO BRING YOUR OWN VOTES. 😂

BOLAJI ABDULLAHI ON TRUST TV: HAMZA IDRIS TESTS ADC'S OSUN SPIN By CharlesCNG.

I have followed Hamza Idris for some time, and increasingly I regard him as one of Northern Nigeria’s finest political interviewers—perhaps Northern television’s answer to Seun Okinbaloye. His strength is not aggression or theatrical shouting.

It is something more dangerous to a politician carrying rehearsed talking points: he listens. Then he remembers what you said five minutes earlier. Then comes the follow-up question.

After yesterday's interview with ADC spokesman Bolaji Abdullahi, i am inclined to give him a nick name :“The Propaganda Speed-Breaker.” 😂

Abdullahi came on Daily Politics determined to present Adeleke's Osun victory as evidence that Tinubu is beatable in 2027.

Hamza followed the logic.

If this was such an opposition triumph, why did ADC itself get barely 17,000 votes after all the pre-election talk of a three-horse race?

“Cooperation,” Abdullahi explained—an amusingly convenient answer to an inconvenient 17,000 votes and Aregbesola polling unit loss. 😂

Hamza pressed further:

Did ADC actually direct its supporters to vote Accord?

Suddenly, “cooperation” became harder to define.

Then came Aregbesola.

Abdullahi described him as still “fiercely” and “widely” popular in Osun.

Fine.
But the follow-up-question specialist is NOT done with the ADC spin doctor .....

But if Aregbesola remains so formidable, where exactly did that influence manifest electorally?
Hamza was probably wondering but is not saying" From Aregbesola and ADC ignominous loss in his polling unit ( ADC 13 , APC 250) or could this from ADC less than 2% score in the election?

Then came my favourite from the man who doesn’t allow politicians to escape through talking points.

ADC wants Adeleke's victory interpreted as evidence against Tinubu.

Hamza reminded Abdullahi:

But Adeleke himself has publicly declared support for Tinubu in 2027.

Does ADC therefore feel betrayed?

Abdullahi's laughably convenient escape hatch?

“Don't worry.”

“That's political talk.”
Interesting!

So believe Adeleke's votes when ADC says they prove Tinubu is beatable—

but ignore Adeleke's mouth when he says he will support Tinubu?

Then came security.

Before the election, the massive deployment was portrayed as the awesome “federal might” descending on Osun, with fears of intimidation and rigging.

Yet APC lost.

The predicted election-day bloodbath did not materialise on the feared scale.

Hamza therefore asked:

Doesn't President Tinubu deserve some commendation?

Again, Abdullahi resisted the implication.

And that is precisely why I enjoyed the interview—and why I admire Hamza’s journalistic instincts, intellectual discipline and interviewing craftsmanship immensely.

He wasn’t taking sides.

He wasn’t arguing for APC.

He was doing what a first-rate political interviewer should do:

HE WAS FOLLOWING THE LOGIC.

If Osun is evidence against Tinubu, what are ADC's 17,000 votes evidence of?

If Aregbesola remains overwhelmingly influential, where are the votes?

If Adeleke's victory belongs to the opposition, what happens when Adeleke himself supports Tinubu?

If federal security deployment was supposed to facilitate APC rigging, what do you say when APC loses under that same deployment?

Those aren't APC questions.

THEY ARE JOURNALISTIC QUESTIONS.

And this matters particularly on Trust TV.
Whatever anyone thinks about the growing perception among some viewers that the station has become comfortable terrain for Atiku-aligned political messaging, Hamza repeatedly demonstrates that giving politicians airtime does not require giving their narratives a free ride , which unfortunately, is how most nigerians are now perceiving trusttv political interviews.
He may give you the microphone—but he will follow your argument until the contradictions start introducing themselves

Kurugu92:
17000 FOLLOWERS
In A STATE

And 13 votes in his polling unit.
The national secretary of ADC and former governor of osun state.

Before Osun, some political commentary made it sound as though Rauf Aregbesola was about to shake the state.

ADC was coming.

Aregbesola had arrived.

The machinery was supposedly intact.

Najeem Salaam was the formidable third force.

Then Osun people voted.

ADELEKE — 511,067

OYEBAMIJI — 444,815

And the mighty ADC?

NAJEEM SALAAM — 17,180. 😂
Less than 2 percent!!

Yes.

SEVENTEEN THOUSAND, ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY.

But the real comedy came from Aregbesola's own polling unit:

APC — 256

ADC — 13

THIRTEEN! 😭😂

The National Secretary of ADC couldn't even deliver his own polling unit to his party.

This election teaches an important political lesson:

Crowds are not votes.

Reputation is not votes.

Social-media noise is not votes.

And yesterday's political structure is not necessarily today's electoral structure.

Aregbesola was once an extraordinarily powerful force in Osun politics. Nobody should rewrite that history.

But Osun 2026 wasn't an examination of what Aregbesola USED TO BE.

It tested how much of that influence he could transfer to ADC TODAY.

The ballot box returned the examination script:

17,180 statewide.

13 in his own polling unit.

You cannot keep withdrawing from a political bank account without occasionally checking the balance. 😂

On August 15, all the talk about ADC structure finally met actual voters.

THE BALLOT BOX ASKED FOR ITS ID CARD.

OSUN 2026: THE NIGHT DATA TOOK OVER

August 15 arrived, and Smart ElectionGuard Pro finally had to do what we had spent months discussing:

FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE IN REAL TIME.

At 1:48 p.m., before meaningful statewide aggregation, I wrote that Smart ElectionGuard Pro would watch Osun’s 3,763 polling units.

My conclusion:

“THE EC8As WILL TELL US WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.”

At 2:01 p.m., I explained the verification chain:

EC8A → WARD → LGA → FINAL RESULT

At 2:06 p.m., election-night analysis had already begun:

2022 MARGIN → 2026 LIVE MARGIN → SWING → STATEWIDE IMPACT.

Then the EC8As started arriving.

At 4:04 p.m., Smart ElectionGuard Pro had detected about 325 uploaded EC8As.

And then came the real test.

Early results showed APC ahead.

THE PLATFORM SHOWED APC AHEAD.

More polling units arrived.

The numbers changed.

Adeleke closed the gap.

THE PLATFORM CHANGED.

Then Adeleke overtook APC.

THE PLATFORM REFLECTED IT.

By around midnight, with roughly 94–95% of polling units reporting, Smart ElectionGuard Pro showed:

ADELEKE LEADING COMFORTABLY.

That was when the technology confronted its creator.

I supported APC.

I wanted APC to win.

But software doesn't vote.

I didn't switch off the dashboard or freeze the earlier APC lead.

I kept publishing the evidence.

INEC ultimately declared:

ADELEKE — 511,067
OYEBAMIJI — 444,815
Margin — 66,252

Smart ElectionGuard Pro's greatest Osun test was simple:

Could it tell its own developer:

YOUR PREFERRED CANDIDATE IS LOSING?

It did.

Political preference is one thing. DATA IS ANOTHER.

FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE—EVEN WHEN IT DOESN’T FAVOUR YOU.

## THE NIGHT THE DATA TOOK OVER

August 15 arrived.

Now Smart ElectionGuard Pro had to do what we had spent months discussing:

### **FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE IN REAL TIME.**

At **1:48 p.m.**, before meaningful statewide aggregation was possible, I publicly wrote that Smart ElectionGuard Pro would keep an eye on Osun's **3,763 polling units**.

My conclusion was simple:

### **“THE EC8As WILL TELL US WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.”**

At **2:01 p.m.**, I explained the verification chain:

### **EC8A → WARD → LGA → FINAL RESULT**

If a discrepancy appeared, don't merely shout “rigging.”

Find where the numbers changed.

Five minutes later, at **2:06 p.m.**, we were already doing election-night analysis.

I compared Oyebamiji's Irewole with Adeleke's Ede North.

The question wasn't simply whether APC would win Irewole.

It was:

### **BY WHAT MARGIN?**

Could APC produce enough surplus there to neutralise an Adeleke stronghold elsewhere?

I summarised the analytical approach:

### **2022 MARGIN → 2026 LIVE MARGIN → SWING → STATEWIDE IMPACT**

Then the EC8As started arriving.

At **4:04 p.m.**, I publicly reported that Smart ElectionGuard Pro had detected approximately **325 uploaded EC8As**.

By **5:25 p.m.**, another Smart ElectionGuard Pro update was publicly available.

Then came the real test.

Early available results showed APC ahead.

### **THE PLATFORM SHOWED APC AHEAD.**

More polling units arrived.

The numbers changed.

Adeleke began closing the gap.

### **THE PLATFORM CHANGED.**

Then Adeleke overtook APC.

### **THE PLATFORM REFLECTED IT.**

His lead widened.

By around midnight, with roughly **94–95% of polling units reporting**, Smart ElectionGuard Pro was showing:

## **ADELEKE LEADING COMFORTABLY.**

And this was where the technology confronted its creator.

I supported APC.

I wanted APC to win.

But software doesn't vote.

I didn't switch the dashboard off.

I didn't freeze an earlier APC lead.

I kept publishing the changing evidence.

Eventually INEC completed its statutory collation:

**ADELEKE — 511,067**

**OYEBAMIJI — 444,815**

**Margin — 66,252**

For me, Smart ElectionGuard Pro's greatest Osun achievement wasn't simply identifying who was ahead.

It was demonstrating that a system built by someone with a political preference could tell that same person:

### **YOUR PREFERRED CANDIDATE IS LOSING.**

Political preference is one thing.

### **DATA IS ANOTHER.**

And the timestamped public record was already online.

**TO BE CONTINUED — PART 3: WHAT WE GOT RIGHT, WHAT WE LEARNED AND WHAT COMES NEXT**

**Smart ElectionGuard Pro**

### **FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE—EVEN WHEN IT DOESN'T FAVOUR YOU.**

1Alex:
bigotry did not let you see the part of your post I quoted which I responded to. I am done. M@$turbate from how till forever, I will never respond again.

You are the same guy who openly admitted you didn't bother to read the post, yet rushed to reply and took us on a wild-goose chase about Igbo voting patterns.

I caught you, corrected you and redirected you to the actual subject.

Now suddenly it is “bigotry,” “I am done,” “I will never respond again.”

Of course you are done. What exactly is left for you to say?

The argument is painfully simple:

If Anambra could not be used to predict Obi's presidential strength because “OBI WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT,” then intellectual consistency demands exactly the same standard for Osun:

TINUBU WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT EITHER.

Instead of addressing that argument, you went sightseeing through Igbo voting patterns. Now that you've been dragged back to the actual topic, you announce your retirement from the discussion.

And spare me the masturbation insult. Coming from someone desperately wrestling with an argument he admittedly didn't read, the irony practically writes itself.

You aren't leaving because you've suddenly become too dignified to respond.

You're leaving because you have nothing left to rebut.

Next time, before embarking on another grand tour of ethnic voting philosophy, try one revolutionary political technique:

READ WHAT YOU ARE REPLYING TO.

It saves everybody's time. Good Bye.

chicfarmer:
Smh
E go really hard for una to recover from the choke slam wey Adeleke deliver on una on Saturday. Sorry, e hear?

I know say you go wan explain am, but you go explain taya

Typical obidient dodge and derail tactics. Pls get back to the topic . This is a summary of what i wrote . respond to it.

Last year, Peter Obi went home to Anambra for an off-season governorship election.

What happened?

His Labour Party lost Obi's own polling unit.

Even worse, LP's governorship candidate was comprehensively rejected statewide.

Soludo/APGA: 422,664.
APC: 99,445
LP: 10,576

Soludo swept ALL 21 LGAs.

What did we hear then?

"OBI WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT!"
Peter obi has lost lost ALL off-season election since 2023.
"OBI WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT!"

Fair enough.

An off-season governorship election apparently couldn't tell us anything about Peter Obi's presidential strength.

Fast-forward to Osun 2026.

Adeleke defeats APC in another off-season governorship election and suddenly:

"THIS PROVES TINUBU WILL LOSE IN 2027!

Ah! 😂

So an off-season election in Obi's own Anambra tells us nothing about Obi...

…but an off-season election in Osun is suddenly an opinion poll on Tinubu's presidency?

Approbrate on Monday. Reprobate on Tuesday.

1Alex:
I didn’t bother reading everything you wrote, but you have already affirmed what we Igbo have been saying all along: we support candidates based on their competence and our belief in their ability to lead, not simply because they are related to us or belong to our ethnic group.

For instance, in 2023, many Igbos supported Peter Obi because we genuinely believed he was the most trustworthy and capable among the candidates. If Osinbajo had been given the presidential ticket, I believe 95% of Igbos would have equally thrown their support behind him because we believed he was the best candidate and also a kind of had the power of incumbency.

So, Listen again, our support is not about ethnicity; it is about who we believe can deliver good leadership and move the country forward.

r.

YOU DIDN’T READ THE ARTICLE—SO WHAT EXACTLY ARE YOU REBUTTING? 😂

You started your response with:

“I didn’t bother reading everything you wrote…”

Then what exactly are you responding to?

That is like refusing to read the exam question and confidently submitting an answer.

Because if you had actually finished the article, you would have discovered that[i] Igbo voting patterns were not even my argument.[/i]

You then went on a long excursion about Igbos voting for competence and claimed 95% would have voted for Osinbajo.

Fine.

I won't even follow you down that rabbit hole. I wont be distracted y your pathetic attempt at deflection.

COME BACK TO THE ARTICLE.

My argument was very simple:

When Peter Obi's Labour Party was humiliated in the Anambra off-season governorship election—even losing Obi's polling unit—the defence from his supporters was:

“OBI WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT!”

I said: Fair enough.

A governorship election is not automatically a presidential referendum.

Now APC loses a off-season governorship election in Osun and suddenly the same people shout:

“THIS PROVES TINUBU WILL LOSE IN 2027!”

That is the contradiction I challenged.

If Anambra could not predict Obi's presidential strength because Obi wasn't on the ballot , then intellectual consistency demands exactly the same standard in Osun:

TINUBU WASN'T ON THE BALLOT EITHER.

Notice something else: my article even explicitly said APC's higher Osun vote in 2026 does NOT automatically mean Tinubu will win Osun in 2027.That was precisely my point.

Different elections. Different candidates. Different dynamics.

So before taking us on another grand tour of Igbo voting philosophy, perhaps do one small thing first:

Read what you are replying to.