₦airaland Forum

aswani:
Nwokem esnbrutality writes a lot of "jargons", in fact that's all they post on this portal.

Good luck trying to extract something useful from them, many have tried and failed.

Honestly, I usually don’t dignify that moniker with a response. Not every noise deserves a reply. Some people write as if ignorance is a credential and confusion is a debating style. Once you notice that pattern, the best thing is to leave them to wrestle with their own emptiness.

budaatum:
So, stating facts about my state is an insult? Or is it that you want to dispute my point that we do not pay teachers?

A state that can not "cut its coat according to its size and capacity" to pay teachers will not cut anything to pay state police. And that's apart from the fact that, ọmọ ti a ko kọ (because teachers are not paid) lo ma gbe ile baba rẹ ta by becoming the bandits your state police.

I am from the Orolu Kingdom of Ifon Osun. Curse me as much as your heart desires, please.

You mean you are not afraid of a curse from an Ijesha man?

As an Orolu man from Ifon-Osun, are you relying on Obatala to neutralise it? 😂

Anyway, my brother, I am only joking. God forbid that I curse anyone from my beloved Osun State.

By the way, are you on ground in Osun right now? What do you think will happen in the coming governorship election?

Can I safely assume you are with our Action Governor?

The interesting thing is that, whichever way it goes, APC and Tinubu may still win.

If Adeleke wins, Tinubu wins — because he may eventually find his way to APC.

If AMBO wins, APC wins directly and Tinubu wins openly.

So, either by express road or village path, the destination may still be the same.

What do you think?

I am not on ground, so I may be right and I may be wrong. But from where I am standing, Osun politics is beginning to look like a match where both goalposts are quietly facing the same direction.

Sonyboom:
This comment shows how unintelligent obidents are. So from all the OP carefully articulated this is the senseless question you can deduce ?!

Did the OP talk about what the APC as done or not done ever ?

Did APC ever tell you not to criticise their party or leader like you obidient never want any form of criticism against your Pandora criminal Peter Obi ?

How many times have APC shouted constructive criticism bla bla bla on air screen n wherever?

If you obidient can not take accountability when it is broken down into pieces like the OP Did indount you have intelligence to lead anything in life not just in this country.

From Argument to Character Assassination: Another Obidient Habit.

Another revealing feature of the Obidient style is what happens when they cannot answer the substance of an argument. Instead of confronting the point, they begin a frantic search for something personal to attack: your name, your business, your tribe, your motives, your appearance, your job, your supposed sponsors, or even your right to speak at all.

That is not debate. That is evasion wearing the mask of aggression.

A serious political movement answers arguments with counterarguments.
A confused bully-mob answers arguments with biography-hunting.

Once they cannot dismantle the message, they start interrogating the messenger, as if exposing the man would magically erase the point.

This is a very old trick. It is the logic of intellectual cowardice. The aim is simple: distract from the substance, poison the atmosphere, and make the writer himself the new topic. That is why they are always asking, “Who sent you?” “What do you do for a living?” “Who is paying you?” “Why is your username this?” It is all one long panic attack disguised as criticism.

There is a proverb for such behaviour: when a man cannot reach the fruit, he begins to insult the tree.

The Obidient problem, therefore, is not only that they are aggressive. It is that their aggression often comes precisely at the point where their argument has collapsed. Personal attack becomes a rescue boat for a drowning point.

That is why this angle matters. Once a movement becomes known for attacking the messenger whenever it cannot answer the message, it reveals two things at once: weakness of thought and poverty of discipline.

In the end, people who truly trust their argument do not need to investigate the speaker’s slippers. They simply answer the point.

Kukutente23:
Now I get your what the problem is
It seems as if you graduated from one of the motor parks affiliated with APC because you put up a no-class show of top performance in insults, degradation and vile words.

This attribute makes you come as mentally fickle, intellectually narrow-minded and emotionally brittle.
Your instability is worse than that of a radioactive element. In one breath you ask us to check out the substance and ignore the label. We point out to you that the label should bear fair testimony of what's to expect of the substance. You respond with a barrage of insults.

It is common sense that when you engage on a public forum posing as an intelligent or astute commentator, the barest minimum that's expected of you is to at least show some modicum of fairness even if you can't be able to muster neutrality. You're not alone in this malaise which seems to generally afflict members of your gang. Aswani is another conflict merchant in this regard. Honourable mention must also go to nairalanda1 and his other numerous monikers.

I'm sure your aim in opening this thread is not necessarily to be seen as an attack gnat for Obi. You shouldn't expect to be taken seriously if that was your aim. Rather, it is to pass yourself off as a neutral mind who is gauging the political climate through objective lens.

It is because of this bar you hope to meet that you keep writing with high verbosity to mask your lack of depth and intellect. What exactly does the phrase "presidential emotion" mean? Nothing. You just coined it cause it sounds good. It might sound high but in truth, it rings hollow.

Lastly, the issue is that there's no issue to dodge. Your whole premise is based on using off-cycle elections of other candidates who were either endorsed by Obi or share same platform with him to decide Obi's "waning" popularity. The simple fact still remains that the last time Obi was on the ballot was in March 2023. What you're simply doing is a projection not an analysis. That you confused the two exposes the rusty part of your intellect. If you truly have any atom of CNG knowledge in you as your moniker highlights, I suggest you simply stick with it. This contract is a waste beyond the fact that it fills up your belly with porridge and your pocket with trinkets of silver. Our public resources is being frittered away on inanities

My brother, you have spent several paragraphs performing a psychiatric evaluation of the messenger while carefully avoiding the message.

That alone is revealing.

This is a public forum. I have the democratic right to support any candidate I choose, just as you have the right to oppose him. I owe you no apology for supporting Tinubu, just as you owe me none for supporting Obi.

What I will not accept is the attempt to police my political preference through insults dressed up as intellectual analysis.

If you disagree with my argument, rebut it.

If my figures are wrong, correct them.

If my projections are weak, expose them.

But calling me motor park, fickle, brittle, hired, hungry or lacking intellect does not answer the point under discussion.

The issue remains simple:

Can off-cycle elections, defections, governor alignments, party structures and recent by-election results be used to examine political momentum ahead of 2027?

You say no. Fair enough.

I say yes, with caution. That is also fair.

That is the debate.

Everything else is decoration.

You accuse me of projection. Fine. Political analysis always involves projection. The difference is whether the projection is based on evidence or fantasy.

I have never said 2027 is over. I have said certain assumptions about Obi’s automatic dominance deserve scrutiny.

That is not an attack.

That is democracy.

So please stay on your lane, express your views, and let others express theirs.

You are free to disagree with me.

You are not entitled to intimidate me out of the conversation.

The ballot box will eventually mark all our scripts.

Vision101:
Regimes before now treated symptoms and not cause. That's why the problems have been recurring and getting worse. Symptoms are easier to treat and the results show very fast but the illness will rebound.

PBAT has been treating cause. This is more difficult, painful and the illness takes awhile before leaving. This brings permanent solution.

You are so right. here is a befiting analogy for what you wrote.

For years, Nigeria was treated like a cancer patient who was repeatedly given painkillers instead of chemotherapy.

The pain reduced temporarily, everyone applauded, and the patient smiled for a while.

But the cancer kept spreading.

President Tinubu's reforms resemble chemotherapy. They are painful, sometimes frightening, and no honest doctor pretends otherwise.

But chemotherapy is not designed to make the patient comfortable today.

It is designed to keep the patient alive tomorrow.

History will judge whether the treatment succeeded, but no one should mistake temporary pain for the disease itself.

The real question is not whether chemotherapy hurts.

It always does.

The question is whether we preferred the comfort of painkillers while the cancer quietly consumed the patient.

Painkillers comfort. Chemotherapy cures.

AlabiKILLER2023:
Mr pen for hire

What a pile of rubbish

Exactly. This is the problem.

Once you ask for specifics, the insults begin.

The question was simple: what would your candidate do differently on subsidy, FX, security, oil theft, debt, reserves, minimum wage, ASUU, infrastructure, student loans and foreign investment?

Instead of answers, we get “pile of rubbish.”

That is not a rebuttal.

That is surrender wearing anger.

Opposition is easy when it is only complaint. It becomes difficult when asked to produce a budget, a policy sequence, a funding plan and a timeline.

Anyone can say Tinubu is wrong.

The serious person must then answer: wrong compared to what?

Restore subsidy or not?

Float naira or not?

Borrow or not?

Raise wages or not?

Fund infrastructure or not?

Pay ASUU or not?

Secure oil pipelines how?

Build reserves how?

This is why many critics avoid specifics. The moment they propose an alternative, it can be tested.

So they hide behind abuse.

But elections are not won by insults.

They are won by alternatives.

And if “pile of rubbish” is their manifesto, then perhaps their manifesto is the rubbish.

franchasofficia:
Nigerian state Governors will not be able to purchase this gun for their state Police.


The National Assembly should make it compulsory now that every state must establish State Police Service Commission and make it compulsory that federal government map out a certain percentage of every state's monthly allocation to be paid directly to the state Police Service Commission which must maintain a separate account like LGAs and the committee to govern every state Police service commission must be drawn from the LGAs in that state, meaning every LGA must have a representative and among them, they will recommend three persons to the State Governor to appoint as the Chairman of state Police service Commission and then state house of assembly will do the final screening and approval. It will then be the job of the state service commission to appoint the state commissioner of police from the highest ranking police Officers.


This way, State Governors will not have a total control of their state Police both in funding and in operation.

You are partly right that funding must be insulated from governors’ arbitrary control. But let us be accurate: the current public summaries already show that the state-police framework includes State Police Service Commissions and contemplates funding mechanisms, including possible federal grants. So the issue of funding is not being ignored.

Where I have not yet seen clear proof is your more specific formula — that a fixed percentage of each state’s monthly allocation must be paid directly into a separate commission account in the same way local governments are discussed. That may be your preferred model, and it is worth debating.

But let's face reality.all state police forces will not be equal at birth. That is normal.
Federalism is not sameness; it is differentiated capacity under a common legal framework.
The answer is not to reject state police because Kano, Osun, Lagos, and Bayelsa will not look identical on day one. The answer is to build minimum national standards, phased rollout, oversight, and funding support.

budaatum:
I am not going to place my security in my LGA chairman's hands!

Currently, we have 2. The APC chairman who lost the election refuses to vacate for the PDP chairman who won. And the APC chairman is sponsoring thugs with the money the central APC government sends to the local government. If anything, I should be secured against him! If my state had police they might arrest him and his thugs, which would be a good thing.

Your fear proves the need for safeguards, not the need to kill the reform.
If a governor can misuse state police, he can also misuse local vigilantes, state security votes, and political thugs under the present system. Abuse risk is real — but keeping a failed over-centralised police system because reform may be abused is like refusing to treat a sick child because medicine can be overdosed.

Your Osun example also shows bias. You focus on how a local chairman may misuse power, but you ignore the other side: a state governor could also be checked by courts, federal intervention triggers, police service commissions, legislative oversight, and clear statutory limits. Recent reporting says the state-police bill already includes safeguards against governors’ abuse, while the federal side would still retain authority over national-security issues and certain intervention powers.

So the objective answer is simple:

local misuse is a real risk
federal over-centralisation is also a real failure
the answer is not to do nothing
the answer is to design oversight, judicial review, independent complaints mechanisms, and clear lines of authority

State police can work because it is meant to improve local intelligence, faster response, and community knowledge, while still operating within a legal framewor

budaatum:
My Osun State too?

Our capacity is small at the moment. We can't even pay teachers, and have to rely on Youth Corpers, so I doubt we'd be spending money on "superior ammunition and guns included amord tanks, gun helicopters", and I doubt our criminals will stay in our state and not go bother other states.

I hope they think this through.

My brother, as a fellow Osun person, I will not accept that kind of insult on behalf of the state. “We can’t even pay teachers” is the kind of careless mouth people should control before an Ijesha man starts clearing his throat. I will spare you the curse today — consider that mercy, not weakness.

But on a serious note, that is exactly the point of state police: each state cuts its coat according to its size and capacity.
Nobody said every state must wake up tomorrow and start buying gun helicopters like a Hollywood republic. States with smaller capacity will begin with what they can sustain — local intelligence, mobility, communications, community policing, and properly armed units scaled to their realities.

And your fear that criminals will cross state lines is not an argument against state police. It is an argument for regional cooperation.

In the South West especially, I can easily see a “be your brother’s keeper” arrangement where states share intelligence, coordinate hot pursuit, and build interoperable security frameworks the way Amotekun already hinted at in principle.

So the real answer is not to mock the reform because Osun is not Lagos. The answer is to design it sensibly: phased rollout, regional collaboration, and capacity-based implementation.

State police is not about every state becoming an army overnight. It is about ending the foolish idea that one over-centralised police command in Abuja must pretend to understand every bush path, dialect, and criminal pattern across Nigeria.

So mind your mouth small. Osun is not helpless — and sensible reform does not require fantasy budgeting.

I don’t know where in Osun you are from, but if you are confused, just consult us Ijeshas small. We will explain it to you gently before you use fear to finish your data. Ọmọ Ijẹṣa kì í sáré bẹ̀rù — an Ijesha person does not rush into panic.

Kukutente23:
I haven't called you confused yet. For a govt apologist you seem quick to insult and label others.

We can't just jump to Obi's electoral performance without gauging the intent of the inquisitor. A fact-based analysis or projection is better presented from a clear-headed and objective mind to stand a chance of being taken seriously.

Such an attempt coming from a jaundiced mind with biased intentions and chameleonic outfit should be passed off as nothing more than the mooing of a cow or the neighing of an horse. It might be loud and long but in the final conclusion means absolutely nothing and mustn't be taken seriously beyond the empty air that produced it.

So you still need to properly situate yourself and your intent before you can expect anyone to take your message seriously.

For starters, why the borrowed robe of a CNG expert or enthusiast when it seems you're just a pen- for- hire

You are still dodging the issue.

First, I do not need to “situate myself” before you or anybody else before making a political contribution on a public forum.

Who exactly are you that I must first obtain your clearance before expressing an opinion? This is not your living room. It is a public space. Read what I wrote or ignore it, but do not behave as if you are the licensing authority for other people’s views.

Second, your obsession with my username and CNG background only proves the point. If all is well with your argument, why are you so restless about my personal life?
Is a lawyer forbidden from discussing football?
Is a doctor barred from discussing elections?
Is an engineer not allowed to criticize a governor?
Once you abandon the substance and begin auditing the writer’s profession, you have already confessed weakness.

Third, this “pen-for-hire” line is cheap and lazy. It is the usual refuge of people who cannot answer facts. If what I wrote is wrong, rebut it. If you cannot rebut it, then stop decorating your helplessness with long grammar about cows, horses, and robes.

The article is about the subject I raised, not about the biography you are inventing for me. Focus on the argument and leave my username out of your panic.

This is a public forum, not your father’s compound. I do not need your permission to speak, and you do not need my biography to answer an argument.
.So please, get out of my face. Nobody forced you to read my opinion, and nobody is begging for your reply.
But if you must reply, then face the substance like an adult. If all you have is distraction, biography-hunting, and cheap insult, then just get lost.

designking:
After going through the blueprint document of the propose state police, I discovered that the state policemen will not be allowed to carry AK-47.

How will state police fix the challenges of bandits, terrorism and kidnapping with pump actions and pepper sprays?

This is how everything gets politicised in Nigeria.Before people start shouting “pepper spray against bandits,” they should first read the bill instead of campaigning with rumours.

From the actual state police bill text now in circulation, I do not see a clause saying “state police are not allowed to carry AK-47.” What the bill does say is different: it moves policing to the concurrent list and creates an exception on light arms for policing so states can legislate on that item. In other words, the constitutional bill creates the framework for state police and for states to make laws on policing-related arms; it does not plainly say “state police will only use pump actions and pepper spray.

ddippset:
Nonsense..

In most underdeveloped corrupt countries, focussing in infrastructure is n easy avenue to loot public money..

Once you sight any government focusing excessively on building roads and almost neglecting human capital, more often than not they are looking for easy route to loot money in billions.

In those countries where you see huge capital projects, there are huge human capital development and job creation to go side by side.

No reasonable human being who is not on drugs would embark on a project of 20 years when millions of it's citizens would starve for those 20 years in the name of "roads move goods"

That's the excuse they always come up with.

Have goods not been moving on the old crooked bad roads?
For the last 30 years we have been moving goods on these bad roads..

No one is saying not to do roads, but let there be a commensurate investment in job creation, employment, citizens welfare.

You carry one road you can do for 30 billion and quote 100 billion.

You sound passionate, but your reply is shallow.

Nobody said roads alone are enough. The argument is that infrastructure is an investment, not a hobby.

Roads are not decoration; they reduce transport cost, connect farms to markets, ports to factories, workers to jobs, and schools to students.

A country that neglects infrastructure in the name of “human capital” is like a man buying textbooks for his children while refusing to repair the bridge to the school.

Your second weakness is that you turn a real risk into a lazy universal conclusion. Yes, corrupt governments can use infrastructure to loot. But that does not make infrastructure itself a scam.
By that logic, because some people steal through education budgets, should we stop funding schools? Because some people steal in health, should we stop building hospitals? That is like seeing a thief use a road and then blaming the road for the theft.

And your “goods have been moving on bad roads for 30 years” line is especially weak. Yes, goods move — but at what cost? Bad roads mean higher vehicle wear, higher transport fares, more accidents, delays, spoilage, and more expensive food.
Movement is not the same as efficiency. A patient crawling is still moving; it does not mean he is healthy.

Finally, the budget itself does not support your false choice. Reuters reported Nigeria’s 2026 budget set aside ₦26.08 trillion for capital projects focusing on security, infrastructure, education, and health — not roads alone. It also approved a ₦70,000 minimum wage and pushed student-loan and credit-access reforms.

So the real position is simple: demand transparency, yes. Question inflated contracts, yes. But do not talk as if roads and human development are enemies.
A serious country does both. Only unserious argument forces a false choice.

slivertongue:
Stop the AI powered circus . I repeat again Tinubu is the president and his actions must be interrogated. I won't interrogate the opposition elements for the current state of Nigeria because they are not the C in C, taking about them cannot solve todays problems, it is a deflection which I won't buy. When they start campaigns face them but allow some of us to focus on today's policy actions and deliverables.

Read Yourself Before Calling Others AI

Your comment contains emotion, but it also contains confusion.

You are saying two things at once. On one hand, you say opposition figures should not be discussed because Tinubu is the president and his performance must be interrogated. On the other hand, you also say 2027 is open, voter turnout matters, opposition momentum matters, and APC should stop talking as if the election is settled. But once you enter the territory of 2027, opposition figures are no longer off-limits. You cannot discuss the coming contest and then ban discussion of the contestants.

That is your first contradiction.

Second, nobody denied that Obi rode a wave of youth enthusiasm in 2023. But enthusiasm is not the same thing as enduring structure. A one-cycle surge is not the same as a stable political machine. That is why examining Obi’s electoral performance, his limitations, and his 2027 path is perfectly legitimate. Politics is not only about incumbents delivering today. It is also about challengers proving they can do better tomorrow.

Third, telling APC supporters to “market performance” as if they must never analyse the opposition is childish.

In democracy, parties do both: defend record and scrutinize alternatives. Tinubu’s policies can be debated, and Obi’s viability can also be debated. These are not enemies. They are both part of politics.

Fourth, your “AI powered circus” line is just decoration for a weak point. You called it AI because you could not call it wrong.

The truth is simple: you do not want opposition figures discussed because you are uncomfortable with scrutiny when it is your side under the microscope. But scrutiny is not deflection. It is democracy.

So calm down. If Tinubu must be questioned, question him. If Obi must be examined, examine him too. A serious mind can do both. Only a partisan mind panics when the searchlight begins to move.

Kukutente23:
When the label says coke but the substance smells gulder, one must interrogate the reason for such dubious camouflage

No, you are the one confused. This thread is not about my label, my bottle, or your brewery imagination.

It is about Obi’s electoral performance. The moment you left the subject and began investigating my username, you exposed yourself. A man who cannot challenge the argument starts auditing the packaging.

This is politics, not a beverage inspection unit. Answer the article and leave my username out of your panic.

sirray001:
is coastal and badagry an achievement to you. When other countries about human/capital development, we are still talking about roads in 21th century. Shioor

What a shallow argument. Roads are not the opposite of human and capital development; they are part of it.

Infrastructure is an investment, not decoration. Roads move goods, reduce transport costs, connect farms to markets, connect schools to students, hospitals to patients, ports to factories, and cities to trade.

A country that ignores infrastructure and keeps preaching “human development” in the air is like a man buying books for his children but refusing to build the road that leads to the school.

spencekat:
And Tinubu allowed freedom of speech by remanding Sowore in Kuje prison.

Sowore was not remanded simply because somebody wanted to suppress free speech. His remand in that episode followed the revocation of his bail over conduct the court treated as contemptuous and disorderly toward the judge and the proceedings.
Dont flatten the legal record into propaganda.

be honest about what happened. A courtroom is not a street rally, and contempt issues are not the same thing as ordinary free-speech issues. Once a bail condition is breached or the court considers the conduct contemptuous, the case moves from politics into procedure.

Iyeku:
So Peter Obi can go to the same Nigeria Judiciary. Obi is not serious honestly.

One of Peter Obi’s recurring political weaknesses is not only what he believes, but how often he says the wrong thing in the wrong way on the wrong issue. Call it the unforced-error syndrome: the habit of speaking loosely on sensitive national questions in ways that create avoidable political damage, reopen old suspicions, and hand opponents free ammunition.

NgeneUkwenu:
Can the oppositions show up today?

Attention MOD NgeneUkwenu . Why is it that i cannot post any new thread . it says the server busy for the past 24 hours. I have over 10 new topics to post but cannot.

Tenses:
tinubu’s disastrous performances need no interpretation or airwaves. The ordinary almagiri in kastina knows about it.

It baffles me how some people mistake insult for argument.

You call tinubu performance disastrous. Fine.

Now do the harder part:

What exactly would your candidate do differently?

Would he restore fuel subsidy?

Would he reverse exchange-rate reform?

Would he stop infrastructure projects?

Would he reduce borrowing while increasing spending?

Would he lower prices by press release?

We acknowledge the pain. But we also see reforms, infrastructure, state revenue growth, student loans, CNG rollout, power-sector restructuring and renewed investor confidence.

If your entire argument is “Tinubu bad,” then you have not presented an alternative.

You have only presented anger.

And anger is not a manifesto.

Sonofgod1990:
It baffles me how a sane person will gladly support failure tinubu. I just dey wonder 🤔

Ten Reasons I Will Be Voting For President Tinubu In 2027 by CharlesCNG
1. He took the hardest economic decisions instead of preserving a lie.
Removing fuel subsidy and liberalising FX were painful, but they addressed distortions that had become fiscally unsustainable. Reuters has consistently reported that these reforms were harsh, but central to stabilising public finances and investor confidence.

2. The economy is hurting less chaotically than before.
The pain is real, but macro indicators have improved: Reuters reported a 2024 balance-of-payments surplus, and reserves rose sharply into 2025–2026. A president should be judged not only by comfort today, but by whether he is rebuilding the foundation.

3. He made states financially stronger.
FAAC distributions have risen significantly since subsidy removal. The Finance Ministry reported **₦1.578 trillion** shared in March 2025 alone, while later analysis showed total FAAC allocations rose sharply year-on-year. States now have more money; the real question is whether governors are using it well.

4. He pushed the most serious progress yet on state police.
Reuters reported on **June 11, 2026** that Nigeria’s parliament advanced the constitutional bill enabling state police, with Tinubu backing it. That is not a slogan; it is concrete movement on a reform Nigerians have debated for years.

5. He has moved power supply forward, even if the sector is not yet fixed.
Reuters reported Nigeria’s electricity output surged to nearly **6,000 MW** in March 2025 after grid-overhaul progress. Government also approved **₦185 billion** to clear gas debts and support generation. In power, progress is not perfection, but progress still counts.

6. He kept higher education more stable than the ASUU-darkness era Nigerians remember.
Nigeria suffered an **eight-month ASUU strike in 2022** before Tinubu. Since he took office, there have been disputes and warning actions, but not a repeat of that prolonged nationwide paralysis. He also approved part-payment of withheld salaries to lecturers in 2023 to cool tensions.

7[b]. He opened a real student-support pipeline.[/b]
Tinubu signed the reworked student-loan law in 2024, and by April 2026 reporting said **1.38 million beneficiaries** had received support amounting to over **₦242 billion**. That is not theory; that is direct educational intervention at scale.

8. He raised the minimum wage instead of pretending wages could remain frozen.
Reuters reported the federal minimum wage process culminated in a higher floor after difficult negotiations. It does not solve everything, but it matters in a reform period where households are under pressure.

9. He is building long-term economic tools, not only making speeches.
Reuters reported new moves on consumer credit and a national credit-guarantee framework to widen access to finance for citizens and businesses. That is the kind of structural support that matters if growth is to become more broad-based.

10[b]. He governs like a man carrying the burden of office, not like a protest candidate performing outrage.[/b]
Tinubu may not be perfect, but he has shown willingness to take politically costly decisions, push reforms, negotiate wages, decentralise policing, strengthen state finances, and keep working through turbulence. Nigeria needs endurance, not just excitement.

Conclusion:
President Tinubu inherited a distorted economy, a weak power system, overstretched public finance, and a long security crisis. He has not solved everything, but he has moved on difficult reforms, strengthened state revenues, pushed power and policing reform, avoided a repeat of the old ASUU paralysis, and expanded support through wages and student loans. **That is why I will be voting for him in 2027: not because the journey is painless, but because the direction is serious.**

slivertongue:
Obidients cannot spend years dissecting Tinubu’s certificates, age, gait, Chicago, bullion vans and family, then suddenly complain when Obi’s record, alliances, platform and electoral prospects are examined.

Tinubu's academic and INEC forms gave raise to whatever citizens say against him. The Obidients did not fill the forms that claim he attended a school that didn't exist. Obidients didn't drag him to court to forfeit huge sums of money to the US government. Same as age, work life, bullion vans etc. Tinubu's claims is his bane. I have refused to deflect my focus from the president's policies and focus on non state actors when there is a president on the seat of power neither have I given my self to the controversy surrounding him. If you like interrogate Obi’s political, financial, educational and if possible moral credentials it won't solve today's challenges

This sounds neat, but it is still a double standard.

You say Tinubu’s forms, certificates, age, Chicago and bullion vans are legitimate because they speak to his credibility. Fair enough.

But why does that logic suddenly disappear when Peter Obi is discussed?

Did Obi not submit forms?

Did Obi not make claims about prudence, integrity and competence?

Did Obi not build an entire political brand around being cleaner, more transparent and more morally superior than others?

If Tinubu’s past is relevant because he is President, then Obi’s past is relevant because he wants to be President.

You cannot say character matters when discussing Tinubu, then say character is a distraction when discussing Obi.

That is not principle.

That is convenience.

And this argument that examining Obi “will not solve today’s problems” is clever but weak. By that standard, examining Tinubu’s past also did not solve inflation, fuel price or insecurity. Yet Obidients spent years doing exactly that.

So let us be consistent.

Yes, Tinubu must defend his policies because he is in office.

But Obi must also defend his record because he is seeking office.

Democracy is both accountability and comparison.

A government must be examined.

But an alternative government must also be examined.

Otherwise, opposition becomes a hiding place where candidates criticize freely but escape scrutiny.

Tinubu is not above questions.

Obi is not above questions.

Atiku is not above questions.

Anyone asking Nigerians for power must submit to interrogation.

Because elections are not only about rejecting the present.

They are also about trusting the alternative.

Akpakomiza2:
The north will be divided same as s south which will favour Tinubu

Bookmark This Prediction: Tinubu Will Cross 25% in Every South-East State in 2027

Bookmark this post.

I am making a prediction that many will dismiss today but may remember after the ballots are counted.

President Bola Tinubu will secure the constitutional[b] 25%[/b] threshold in every South-East state in 2027. In Ebonyi and Imo, I expect him to poll between 30% and 40%.

Why am I so confident?

Because too many analysts are preparing for the next election by studying the last one.

The South-East of 2027 is not the South-East of 2023.

The political equation has changed.

For the first time, APGA is openly aligning itself with President Tinubu at the presidential level. Governor Chukwuma Soludo has signalled support for Tinubu rather than presenting APGA as a rival presidential platform.

In Ebonyi, Governor David Umahi has become one of Tinubu's strongest political allies. In Imo, Governor Hope Uzodimma controls an established APC structure. In Abia, Governor Alex Otti's relationship with the Federal Government has become far more pragmatic than the confrontational politics of 2023.

More importantly, the current crop of South-East governors is politically stronger, more experienced and more influential than the fragmented leadership Peter Obi encountered in 2023.

This is not a prediction that Tinubu will win the South-East.

It is a prediction that the overwhelming margins of 2023 will narrow because politics is dynamic. Alliances shift. Structures mature. Incumbency matters. Federal projects matter. Governors matter.

Many Obidients will disagree.

That is perfectly legitimate.

But elections are not decided by certainty. They are decided by ballots.

And sometimes, the most important political development is not who wins a region—but by how much.

So, bookmark this prediction.

In 2027, the ballot box—not social media—will settle the argument.

slivertongue:
I don't waste my time on Tinubu's identity crisis, all I want from him now that he is the president are deliverables. Deliverables are the core determinants come 2027 so if the focus of his supporters is to deconstruct the take of the Obidients then he will fail because the Obidients are less than 5% of Nigeria's population, they are well to do folks,
from my little understanding Obidients ain't party or person centric they policy centric though Obi is the person that ticks the boxes. They are independent-minded can't be easily suppressed. To silence them is to perform. Notice I refused to bother myself with Tinubu's character which isn't the making of Obidients.

Tinubu is the president so the focus should be on him and his policy actions. The searchlight should be beamed on persons seeking the top job. Have you read the book how to lie with statistics? That is what Soludo did in 2022 but when challenged he couldn't come forth with details. I am not against stats but relying on off season election stats ain't gonna yield productive outcomes. Going by such stats many did not expect Obi to gain 3 million votes but we know the results. It's possible for Tinubu to secure 97% votes in Ogun and Obi 97% Anambra yet both lose out to Atiku with lower 65% in Adamawa.

Fair enough, deliverables should matter. But that is precisely why the conversation cannot be reduced to “leave Obi alone.”

Tinubu met a country with fuel subsidy bleeding public finances, multiple exchange rates feeding arbitrage, FX backlog damaging investor confidence, weak reserves, poor infrastructure, power-sector liquidity problems and states struggling for revenue.

What has he done?

1. Removed fuel subsidy, painful but necessary.

2. Unified the exchange rate, painful but needed to end artificial pricing and round-tripping.

3. Improved external confidence, with Moody’s upgrading Nigeria’s rating after better fiscal and external positions.

4. Strengthened reserves and balance of payments after years of pressure.

5. Increased FAAC allocations to states, giving governors more resources.

6. Launched student loans through NELFUND.

7. Expanded CNG infrastructure, with official figures showing 379+ certified conversion centres, 75+ refuelling stations, 7,700+ technicians trained and 100,000+ vehicles converted.

8. Pushed major infrastructure: Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Highway, Abuja-Kaduna-Kano road, FCT roads, bus terminals and urban renewal.

9. Began difficult power-sector reforms, including tariff restructuring and metering expansion.

10. Advanced tax reform to simplify Nigeria’s fiscal system.

So yes, Tinubu must be judged by deliverables. But opposition candidates must also be scrutinised. Democracy is comparison, not immunity.

Obidients cannot spend years dissecting Tinubu’s certificates, age, gait, Chicago, bullion vans and family, then suddenly complain when Obi’s record, alliances, platform and electoral prospects are examined.

If Tinubu must defend his performance, Obi must defend his alternative.

That is not obsession.

That is democracy.

AMINDA:
Warped logic. Tinubu did not win Kaduna in the same way he didn't win Lagos nor Kano. I guess Sanwo-olu and the likes of Ganduje contributed nothing to his victory. Tinubu didn't win Kaduna but he got his second highest votes in the Northwest from Kaduna, only next to Kano. It was the margins in the North that made him president, not the number of states won. Obi floored him in the South as he was only able to win 4 Yoruba states out of 17 Southern states. If it were merely about governors, APC had governors in Ebonyi, Imo and Cross Rivers. Pray tell, how many votes did Tinubu get from those states? In 2023, was your vote influenced by your state governor and would you change your mind if your governor decamps today?

Some Northerners were sceptical about Tinubu in 2023 but the likes of Elrufai gave them reassurances. His betrayal and treachery have only succeeded in removing all doubts as time will prove. Tinubu's treachery also disincentivices anyone who would want to go all out in the North for him like Elrufai did. He had better win the South in a landslide this time.

Let us deal with the arithmetic of 2023 first, not emotions.

1. Kaduna was not Tinubu’s second-biggest vote source in the North.

You claimed Kaduna gave Tinubu his second-highest northern votes after Kano. That is wrong.

Tinubu’s northern votes were:

Kano: **517,341**
Katsina: **482,283**
Jigawa: **421,390**
Kaduna: **399,293**

So Kaduna was actually **fourth**, not second.

2. The North-West did not single-handedly deliver Tinubu.

North-West:

Tinubu: **2,652,235**
Atiku: **2,329,540**
Tinubu’s lead over Atiku: **322,695**

That is important, but not decisive on its own.

**3. Tinubu’s South-West margin over Atiku was far bigger.**

South-West:

Tinubu: **2,279,407**
Atiku: **941,941**
Obi: **846,478**

Tinubu’s lead over Atiku: **1,337,466**
Tinubu’s lead over Obi: **1,432,929**

So Tinubu’s South-West lead over Atiku was more than **four times** his North-West lead over Atiku.

4. North-Central also mattered heavily.

North-Central:

Tinubu: **1,760,993**
Obi: **1,415,577**
Atiku: **1,162,087**

Tinubu’s lead over Atiku: **598,906**
Tinubu’s lead over Obi: **345,416**

Again, Tinubu’s North-Central margin over Atiku was almost twice his North-West margin.

5. Even where Tinubu lost, he remained competitive.

North-East:

Atiku: **1,737,846**
Tinubu: **1,185,458**

Atiku’s lead: **552,388**

South-South:

Obi: **1,210,675**
Tinubu: **799,957**
Atiku: **717,908**

Tinubu still beat Atiku there by **82,049**.

South-East:

Obi: **1,952,998**
Tinubu: **127,370**
Atiku: **90,968**

Tinubu still beat Atiku there by **36,402**.

6. Obi did not “floor” Tinubu in the South as casually as you suggest.

Southern totals:

Obi: **4,010,151**
Tinubu: **3,206,734**

Obi’s southern lead: **803,417**

But outside the South-East:

Tinubu: **3,079,364**
Obi: **2,057,153**

Tinubu led Obi outside the South-East by **1,022,211**.

7. The real story is national spread.

Tinubu did not win because one region performed magic.

He won because he combined:

* South-West dominance;
* North-West advantage;
* North-Central victory;
* competitiveness in the North-East and South-South;
* and enough votes even in hostile zones.

That is not an accident.

That is coalition arithmetic.

Presidential elections are not won by slogans.

They are won by spread, margins and numbers.

slivertongue:
Hard data was thrown up in 2023 yet he surmounted it. You are at liberty to call 2027 a walk in the pack but do not force your narrative on the public. Obi had no major money bag but the young people who trusted him. Obi wasnt on a major platform except for the young people who were the major platform. Obi had no this and that except the young people who formed his this and that.

APC folks should leave Atiku, Obi and Kwankwanso alone and market their party. The masses are asking for deliverables not names of opposition party members. The Nigeria of today isn't for fruitless banter and the throwing up of stats for victory, but for service by those elected to serve.

I can't be an APC supporter and spend my time on another candidate instead of marketing my party's performance. The refusal of APC folks to focus their party's performance and its impact on the people speaks volumes and the people know what to do. Those of you promoting the notion that there will voter aparthy in some places which will benefit the incumbent or that the election will be rigged in favour of the incumbent are oversimplifying matters. You've not asked what if the electorates troop out in there numbers vote and protect their votes all the way to the state coalition centers. Nigerians are no more buying the narrative that it is over before it is over.

My brother, your response is thoughtful, but it contains several contradictions that are worth pointing out.

First, you advise APC supporters to stop talking about Peter Obi and simply market Tinubu's performance. Fair enough. But who has spent the last three years making Tinubu the centrepiece of every political conversation? Was it APC supporters who opened threads about Chicago, bullion vans, certificates, age, health and every imaginable controversy, or was it Obidients? You cannot spend years making one man the subject of your politics and then complain when people scrutinise your own candidate.

Second, you say elections are about service, not statistics. But democracy is ultimately measured by numbers. Votes are statistics. Election results are statistics. By-elections are statistics. We cannot suddenly declare statistics irrelevant because they are inconvenient.

Third, you caution against saying 2027 is already decided. I actually agree. Yet, in the same breath, many Obidients confidently predict Obi will sweep states with 95% of the vote. So certainty is acceptable when it favours Obi, but arrogance when someone else expresses confidence?

Fourth, you say Nigerians want deliverables. Absolutely. That is precisely why many of us discuss infrastructure, power, tax reforms, state finances, rail projects and economic reforms. Yet whenever those subjects arise, many Obidients quickly change the conversation to Chicago, bullion vans or personal insults. You cannot accuse others of ignoring performance while repeatedly refusing to engage discussions about performance.

Finally, I have never said 2027 is over. My consistent position is simple: let every candidate market his ideas, let every supporter make his case, and let the ballot box decide.

Politics is not a beauty contest where one candidate is above scrutiny.

If Peter Obi wants to be President, then his record, his proposals and his electoral prospects are every bit as open to examination as Tinubu's.

After all, democracy is not emotional attachment.

It is comparison.

Svoboda:
Obi wasn't also on the ballot in 2021 but campaigned for Val Ozigbo in PDP in 2021 guber election. Apga won 21-0, defeating Val in Aguata as well as Obi in Anaocha. 2 yrs later, Obi ran as presidential candidate of labour party, and swept the whole Anambra electoral landscape by winning almost 100% of the votes. This same sequence was repeated between 2017, when Obiano ran and won his second term against Oseloka obaze of the PDP, who was Obis candidate, and 2019 when Obi ran as RM to Atiku Abubakar, winning Anambra landslide. You see, the example of 2025 election has a precedence, and just didn't happen for the first time in George Muoghalus case.

I am taking pains to give you this perspective. Elections in Anambra have their peculiarities. You can as well glean from the two or three instances I cited above, that Obis candidate always lost in the guber vote, but Obi always won the presidential vote landslide, despite not recieving support from the incumbent governors then, and despite apga fielding candidates for president and nass. Whatever happened in 2025 was just a repeat of this sequence.

2027 will not be different. The same people who voted for Soludo overwhemingly in 2025 would move like a herd to thumbprint massively for Obi in 2027. That has been the pattern since 2019. The major determinants in Anambra politics are the church and the town unions. Not Soludo or apga structure. That day, apga structure will melt to insignificance in the heat of the massive support Obi would amass across board.

Excellent and well-thought-out analysis.

If I understand you correctly, your position is this:

Based on Anambra’s historical voting pattern, the state often votes APGA in governorship elections but votes Peter Obi in presidential elections.

You cite 2017/2019 and 2021/2023 as examples: Obi’s preferred governorship candidates lost badly, yet Obi still won Anambra massively when he appeared on a presidential ticket.

Fair enough. That is a coherent argument.

Your position, therefore, is that even if Governor Soludo openly campaigns for President Tinubu in 2027, and even if APGA officially adopts Tinubu and deploys its structure for him, Obi will still secure something close to 95% of Anambra’s presidential vote.

I do not share your confidence, because 2027 introduces a new variable: this would be the first time an incumbent APGA governor and APGA structure openly back Tinubu against Obi.

But I understand your point.

You are saying history will overpower structure.

I am saying structure may alter history.

Thankfully, this is not a matter to be settled by argument alone.

The ballot box will tell us whether Anambra’s old pattern remains intact or whether 2027 produces a new political equation.

So let us watch.

If you are right, the numbers will vindicate you.

If you are wrong, the numbers will expose it.

That is the beauty of elections.

They eventually force every theory to sit for an exam.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
There is nothing Soludo is doing now that he hasn't done in 2023,Anambra people always support Apga cos of Ojukwu and not Soludo,but when it comes to Presidential and Senate elections,they support Obi.Thats My state.Its useless cos Soludo can't even give tinubu 25percent in the presidential election,if Soludo thinks he is popular he would have decamped to apc instead of hiding behind Apga,nobody takes him serious today in Anambra.

Okay, let's put things in proper perspective.

If I understand you correctly, your position is this:

Despite the fact that this is the first time APGA is officially adopting President Tinubu as its presidential candidate, and the first time Governor Soludo has openly committed to campaigning against Peter Obi's presidential ambition, you believe none of that will materially affect the voting pattern in Anambra.

In other words, because Anambra voted APGA in governorship elections and Peter Obi in the 2023 presidential election, you expect that pattern to be repeated in 2027.

That is a fair and coherent argument.

I may disagree with your conclusion, but it is at least a position that can be tested.

Politics is full of realignments. Endorsements, alliances, incumbency, party machinery and changing voter sentiments can alter electoral outcomes. Equally, historical voting patterns can prove remarkably resilient.

So there is no need for either of us to declare victory today.

If your reading of Anambra politics is correct, the voters will confirm it in 2027.

If mine is correct, they will confirm that instead.

That is the beauty of democracy.

It settles arguments with ballot papers, not speculation.

So, for now, let us both make our cases and allow the only opinion that truly matters—the verdict of the electorate—to decide.

As I have always said, elections are the examination hall of politics.

The ballot box will mark all our scripts. we shall see.

slivertongue:
I have seen your type before, you are heading towards an answer. And I repeat obi will do better than 95% in 2027

Fair enough. That is at least a clear position and a valid response

You believe Obi will do better in 2027. Good. Case Closed until then.

Image123:
Hmmmm. Selah.

Indeed.
It is about the danger of pastors speaking with certainty where God has not spoken.

Because once you claim divine endorsement, every subsequent failure becomes not merely a political problem but a theological one.

And that is precisely why pastors should tread carefully.

For when men mistake their hopes for prophecy, they do not merely embarrass themselves.

They risk making God appear unreliable.

And that is too high a price to pay for politics.

esnbrutality:
WizardOfNG

Remember, I dont read jargons

You don't read "jargons," yet you somehow found the energy to respond to one.

So you're in the habit of replying to articles you admit you haven't read?

That's like reviewing a movie you never watched.

No wonder the rebuttal is missing.

slivertongue:
Anambra notwithstanding Obi is on the upward trajectory. Nigerians not Anambra will determine Obi’s fate.

Do these people read at all? 😁

The article did not say Anambra alone will determine Obi’s fate.

The article said Obi’s national arithmetic depends on huge margins from his strongest zones, especially the South-East.

So if Anambra gave him about 95% in 2023, and Soludo reduces that to 70% or 75% in 2027, that is not a small matter.

That is a political wound.

Presidential elections are not won by slogans. They are won by accumulated margins across states.

If Obi loses 20–25% of his Anambra dominance, then he must recover those votes somewhere else.

Where?

North-West?

North-East?

South-West?

That is the question.

So yes, Nigerians will determine Obi’s fate.

But Anambra people are Nigerians too.

And when your fortress starts leaking, you do not comfort yourself by saying the whole country is large. 😂